.
Open Open Open Curr Curr Curr
TEAM Wins OVER UNDR Wins OVER UNDR
----------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Arizona Cardinals 7 1/2 -110 -110 7 1/2 -125 +106
Atlanta Falcons 9 Even -120 9 -140 +120
Baltimore Ravens 10 -110 -110 10 -120 Even
Buffalo Bills 5 1/2 Even -120 5 1/2 +125 -145
Carolina Panthers 7 1/2 +110 -130 7 1/2 +140 -160
Chicago Bears 8 +110 -130 8 -105 -115
Cincinnati Bengals 7 1/2 -130 +110 7 1/2 -160 +140
Cleveland Browns 5 1/2 +105 -125 5 1/2 -115 -105
Dallas Cowboys 9 1/2 -165 +145 9 1/2 -175 +155
Denver Broncos 7 1/2 -155 +135 7 1/2 +110 -130
Detroit Lions 5 -135 +115 5 -130 +110
Green Bay Packers 9 1/2 -165 +145 9 1/2 -150 +130
Houston Texans 8 -130 +110 8 -140 +120
Indianapolis Colts 11 +110 -130 11 +110 -130
Jacksonville Jaguars 7 Even -120 7 +110 -130
Kansas City Chiefs 6 1/2 -150 +130 6 1/2 -125 +105
Miami Dolphins 8 1/2 -110 -110 8 1/2 -115 -105
Minnesota Vikings 9 1/2 -110 -110 9 1/2 -125 +105
New England Patriots 9 1/2 -140 +120 9 1/2 -125 +105
New Orleans Saints 10 1/2 Even -120 10 1/2 Even -120
N Y Giants 8 1/2 -120 Even 8 1/2 -125 +105
N Y Jets 9 1/2 +140 -160 9 1/2 -110 -110
Oakland Raiders 6 Even -120 6 -150 +130
Philadelphia Eagles 8 1/2 -120 Even 8 1/2 +110 -130
Pittsburgh Steelers 9 +130 -150 9 +130 -150
St Louis Rams 5 +115 -135 5 +110 -130
San Diego Chargers 11 +110 -130 11 +140 -160
San Francisco 49ers 8 1/2 -145 +125 8 1/2 -145 +125
Seattle Seahawks 7 1/2 -110 -110 7 1/2 +120 -140
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 1/2 -110 -110 5 1/2 -140 +120
Tennessee Titans 8 1/2 -130 +110 8 1/2 +120 -140
Washington Redskins 7 1/2 +120 -140 7 1/2 -110 -110
In approaching an analysis of playing
individual teams to go Over or Under their respective win totals, several global
perspectives need to be looked at first.
One key thing to keep in mind is
that the public is usually geared to thinking in the positive -- i.e. that things
will happen rather than that they won't. In other words, much as the public tends
to prefer Favorites over Underdogs in betting the pointspread, and tends to prefer
betting Over the Total Points as opposed to Under the Total Points in individual
games, the Team Over/Under wins are geared more to betting the Over rather than the
Under.
In seasons prior to 2007 there had been huge biases towards the OVER
that resulted in the values being found in playing the UNDERs.
Yet in recent
years the public -- especially the so-called "Wise Guys" part of the public
-- has become more enlightened about sports betting in general, and Over/Under Season
Wins in particular.
Interestingly, in 2009, if you totalled up the number
of "projected wins" for all 32 teams it summed to 256.5. In 2008, that
number summed to 252.5. In prior seasons it was not unusual for the "projected"
wins to total in the mid to upper 260's. A look at the "vig" attached to
the Overs and Unders shows that there has been a shift in that rather than having
the public play OVER inflated Win Totals, the public must now pay an unusually high
"vig" to play OVER more realistic (and slightly lower) Win Totals. More
about this shortly as this has become a major change/development.
For 2010
the total wins sums to 257 1/2 for the Opening numbers and also 257.5 for the current
numbers (thus far all teams remain at the Opening number of wins).
Barring
any games that end in ties, there can only be 256 wins accumulated by the league
as a whole, 256 being the total number of regular season games to be played.
Thus
there was a slight bias towards the UNDER in 2008 which means that on a global basis
there was slight value in betting the OVER. In 2009 there was a slight bias the
other way.
And in 2010 the slight bias is again towards the OVER with the
Total Wins summing to 257 1/2 as noted above.
Going even further, if one were
to bet every team to go Over their total, because of the half wins for several of
the teams it would take 279 wins overall to cash each ticket, or a league record
for 256 games of 279-233, a spread of 46 games. If you were to bet every team OVER
the total and those teams on whole numbers landed on those numbers you are still
looking at a total number of games of 268 to WIN or PUSH betting every team to go
OVER their Total, a variance of 24 games (268-244) from the 256 being playedl (this
would result in 21 wins and 11 pushes).
Obviously this is impossible but compare
this scenario to betting Under for all teams in which case the total number of wins
needed to cash every ticket drops to 236, or an overall record of 236-276, a spread
of 46 games. To WIN or PUSH every team going UNDER it Total would require a total
of 247 wins, a variance of 18 games (247-265) from the total number of 256 games
to be played (this would result in the same 21 wins and 11 pushes, obviously, since
only the 21 teams with "half games" would not result in those Pushes).
Numerically
there is essentially no global bias or value in 2010 with the Total Wins projected
at almost exactly 256. One way to get an overview of what the linesmaker expects
is to recast the above table in the form of projected standings, division by division.
By doing this exercise we get the following projections.
. AFC EAST NFC EAST -------------- ------------ -------------- ------------ New England 9.5 - 6.5 Dallas 9.5 - 6.5 N Y Jets 9.5 - 6.5 Philadelphia 8.5 - 7.5 Miami 8.5 - 7.5 N Y Giants 8.5 - 7.5 Buffalo 5.5 - 10.5 Washington 7.5 - 8.5 AFC NORTH NFC NORTH -------------- ------------ -------------- ------------ Baltimore 10.0 - 6.0 Green Bay 9.5 - 6.5 Pittsburgh 9.0 - 7.0 Minnesota 9.5 - 6.5 Cincinnati 7.5 - 8.5 Chicago 8.0 - 8.0 Cleveland 5.5 - 10.5 Detroit 5.0 - 11.0 AFC SOUTH NFC SOUTH -------------- ------------ -------------- ------------ Indianapolis 11.0 - 5.0 New Orleans 10.5 - 5.5 Tennessee 8.5 - 7.5 Atlanta 9.0 - 7.0 Houston 8.0 - 8.0 Carolina 7.5 - 8.5 Jacksonville 7.0 - 9.0 Tampa Bay 5.5 - 10.5 AFC WEST NFC WEST -------------- ------------ -------------- ------------ San Diego 11.0 - 5.0 San Francisco 8.5 - 7.5 Denver 7.5 - 8.5 Arizona 7.5 - 8.5 Kansas City 6.5 - 9.5 Seattle 7.5 - 8.5 Oakland 6.0 - 10.0 St Louis 5.0 - 11.0
By looking at the projected standings we can often spot teams that look out
of place. Such teams are not necessarily those that are predicted to win divisions
but rather may be teams projected to finish second or teams projected to finish last.
Note
that with divisional realignment in 2002, there are now eight divisions, each with
exactly four teams. This represents a dramatic change from the prior alignment which
featured five divisions of five teams each and one division of six teams.
Major Change in Bookmaker Approach
to NFL Over/Under Season Win Totals
===========================================================
In
seasons past there was a built in value towards playing teams UNDER their season
win totals as the sum of all team's projected wins would be significantly greater
than the total number of games that would be played during an NFL season. For example,
32 teams playing a 16 game schedule results in a total of 256 regular season games.
Often the total projected wins for the 32 teams would sum to the mid to upper 260's.
In fact, between 2002 (the first season of 32 teams with the addition of the Houston
Texans) through 2006 the sum of Projected Total Wins has been between 261 and 267.
In 2007 we saw the sum drop to 257 1/2, just a game and a half more than the number
of games to be played, but still with the slightest of edges towards playing the
UNDER. But in 2008 the sum was just 252 -- actually creating an edge to the OVER.
And in 2009 and 2010 the sum is virtually right on the 256 games that will be played
during the regular season.
In 2008 this shift towards lower Projected Total
Wins continued to a point where there was a numerical edge in playing the OVER. Summing
the 32 Projected Win Totals yields a result of just 252 total wins -- 4 fewer than
the number of games to be played. But rather than blindly conclued that there was
now an edge in playing the OVER, closer inspection showed that any such edge was
all but wiped out by the "vig" attached to playing the OVER.
A look
at the first chart above shows that for 18 of the 32 teams bettors must lay a vig
to play the OVER (using the Opening Lines). For only 9 teams is there a "plus"
price on the OVER with 5 teams being priced at "Even Money" for the OVER.
Compare that to the UNDER and we see that there are 20 teams that require the bettor
to lay a vig to play the UNDER while the other 12 teams are priced at either Even
Money (2 teams) or a plus price (10 teams) on the UNDER.
Two months into the
wagering (early July) there were still just 6 teams that carried a "plus"
price on the OVER while the 21 teams carried a "minus" vig and 5 teams
were are Even Money. For the UNDER there were now 18 teams with a "minus"
vig while the remaining 14 teams were either at a "plus" vig (12 teams)
or at Even Money (2 teams). A number of the moves were toward "pick ems"
where both the OVER and the UNDER had "minus" vigs such as each being -
110 in a true "pick em" wager.
A look at the past 12 seasons of
NFL Season Total Overs/Unders (379 team seasons) there have been 180 OVERs, 187 UNDERs
and 12 PUSHes -- nearly a 50/50 split that has averaged just 1/2 more UNDER than
OVER per season for 12 seasons. As we all know, the closer results come to being
50/50, the better the Sports Books fare.
Thus in 2010 were you to play EVERY
team to go OVER, using $100 as a standard unit of play (risking more than $100 to
win $100 when laying vig or laying $100 to win $100 or more when playing even money
or 'plus' teams) -- using the Current Win Totals and Vigs -- you would be risking
a total of $3,820 to win $3,345 (by wagering $2,720 to win $2,100 on the 21 teams
with minus vig and $1,100 to win $1,245 on the 11 teams with plus vig (6 teams) or
at even money (5 teams)).
To play Every team to stay UNDER you would be risking
a total of $3,635 to win $3,470 (by wagering $2,235 to win $ 1,800 on the 18 teams
with minus vig and $1,400 to win $ 1,670 on the 14 teams with plus (12 teams) or
even money vig (2 teams)).
So what we are seeing is a major shift in setting
season Total Wins. Recognizing that the public generally prefers to bet the OVER,
and recognizing that over the long run there will be nearly the same number of teams
going OVER their Total Wins as will be going UNDER, by attaching more of a "minus"
vig to playing the OVER results in a greater bottom line. What the Books may give
up in terms of perhaps one additional OVER winner they will more than make up for
in the added "net" vig they will collect on the OVER losers.
Thus,
from a "vig" standpoint it has become even more attractive to seek out
UNDERs as we are more likely to get them at Even Money or better, even though we
may be playing UNDER a number that could be a half game lower than in the past (no
way of knowing this, of course, as every season sets up uniquely, but the half game
is a reasonable estimate based on the decline in the overall total of projected wins).
At the same time, it becomes imperative to proceed cautiously when considering an
OVER play as we must now pay a higher price than in the past to back the OVER, even
though we are playing OVER a number that is roughly a half game lower than it might
have been in the past (for the same reason as just mentioned for the UNDERs).
Therefore,
we have seen a tradeoff involving the number of projected wins and the vigorish attached.
The
approach we outline and discuss below regarding Playoff teams, combined with the
detailed history we will provide, is still a valid way of looking for teams to play
OVER their Totals while at the same time our similarly outlined approach to playing
UNDERs offers greater returns due to the increased "plus" vigs.
In the past, our general approach
was twofold -- to look for teams that figure to struggle and thus teams to be played
Under the total, taking advantage of the built in value in the Under (now because
of the attached vigorish as opposed to the previously discussed win totals). But
there is also a strategy geared towards finding teams that may be played Over the
total. This strategy involves looking for teams that one expects will make the Playoffs
and has a total wins listed of 9 games or less.
In most seasons it will take
at least 10 wins to qualify for a Wild Card. In fact, since the NFL adopted its present
Playoff format of 12 teams (6 division winners and 6 Wild Cards beginning in 1990,
since modified in 2002 with Realignment to 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Card teams
but still producing 12 Playoff teams each season) there have been 240 teams to make
the Playoffs in those 20 seasons. Of those 240 teams, 192 of them had at least 10
wins and another 40 teams had exactly 9 wins. Only 8 teams made the Playoffs with
8-8 records (including a Division winner, San Diego, in 2008). Looked at another
way, 80.0% of all Playoff teams won at least 10 games and 96.7% of all Playoff teams
won at least 9 games. Only 3.3% of all Playoff teams over the past 20 seasons made
the Playoffs with just 8 wins.
Thus in looking to play teams Over their posted
wins total the best strategy is to look for team with a good chance of making the
playoffs and whose win totals are 9 or less. Generally these teams will have win
totals between 7 and 9. Remember that 9 wins for a Playoff team should at least get
you a 'push' on the Over and you have roughly a 4 in 5 chance of cashing your ticket
should your team make the Playoffs since teams making the Playoffs have won at least
10 games 80% of the time.
In looking at teams you may expect to make the Playoffs
use history as a guide. Since the NFL expanded to include 12 teams in the Playoffs
in 1990 only an average of 6.2 teams make it to the Playoffs the following a Playoff
appearance. That is, of the 12 Playoff teams from 2009 (Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati,
Dallas, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, the New York
Jets, Philadelphia, and San Diego) only 6 or 7 of them can be expected to again make
the Playoffs again in 2010. Only once, in 1995, did as many as 8 of 12 Playoff teams
make the Playoffs again the following season and only in 2003 did as few as 4 teams
repeat (in 1999, 2005, 2006 and 2008 just 5 teams repeated from the previous season).
Thus, 6 or 7 teams from 2009 can be expected to make the Playoffs in 2010. (Note
that 6 Playoff teams from 2008 again made the Playoffs last season, in 2009).
Focus
your OVER plays on those teams, especially the 5 or 6 teams you think may make the
Playoffs this season after having missed out last season. Because of this recent
high degree of parity -- in which 18 of the NFL's 32 teams have made the Playoffs
over the past 2 seasons -- the OVER becomes more of a value if you are able to identify
those teams that did not make the Playoffs a year ago but may have been in the Playoffs
2 or 3 seasons ago and seem to be improved entering this season.
Of the 14
teams that did not make the Playoffs in 2008 or 2009, 4 teams (Jacksonville, Seattle,
Tampa Bay and Washington) made them in 2007 and 2 teams (Chicago and Kansas City)
last made the Playoffs in 2006 meaning that 24 of the NFL's 32 teams, 75%, have made
the Playoffs at least once in the past 4 seasons. Only 8 teams (Buffalo - 1999, Cleveland
- 2002, Denver - 2005, Detroit - 1999, Houston -- never, Oakland -- 2002, St Louis
-- 2004, San Francisco -- 2002) have not made the Playoffs in any of the last 4 seasons.
It
is easier to decide upon teams to play Under the total for several reasons. Most
developments during the season tend to be negative, generally in the form of
extended or season-ending injuries. In looking for teams to play Under it is often
a good strategy to look for teams that don't have much depth at several positions,
especially at QB and other skill positions. A change in coaching staff or replacing
of key players from the prior season can often lead to a slow start out of the gate.
Also
let's look at the opposite of the statistics that define likely Playoff teams. Between
1990 and 2009 there have been 609 individual team seasons. 138 of those teams, or
22.7%, have won 5 or fewer games in a season. 89 of those 138 teams (14.6% of the
overall 609 total) have won just 4 or fewer games. Usually, the LOWEST Over/Under
Season Win Total will be 5 games. Using the historical percentage of 22.7% it is
projected that 7 teams will win 5 or fewer games in 2010. Note that for 2010 NO TEAM
is projected to win fewer than 5 games and only Detroit and St Louis are each projected
to win exactly 5 games. Three other teams -- Buffalo, Cleveland and Tampa Bay --
are projected to win 5 1/2 with Oakland next at 6 games!
In each season since
1990 there were at least 2 teams that won 4 or fewer games and at least 4 teams that
won 5 or less. Thus we can expect that 3 or 4 teams will win 4 or fewer games in
2010 and that another 2 or 3 teams will win exactly 5 games. Last season saw 5 teams
win 4 or fewer games and 3 more win exactly 5 games.
The most likely prospects
to win 5 or fewer games would generally be teams projected at 7 wins or less.
In
2008 there were 10 teams that won at least 10 games and 8 teams that won 5 or less.
The New England Patriots became just the sixth teams since to win at least 10 games
and not make the Playoffs. In fact, the Patriots were 11-5 but lost the AFC East
title to Miami, also 11-5, on tie breakers. Unfortunately for the Pats Indianapolis
earned the first AFC Wild Card with a 12-4 record and theBaltimore, also 11-5 like
the Patriots, earned the second Wild Card on tie breakers. In 2007 there were 8 teams
with 5 or fewer wins and 10 teams with 10 or more wins. In 2007 10-6 Cleveland became
the fifth team since 1990 to win 10 games and not make the Playoffs. The previous
4 such teams also won exactly 10 games -- San Francisco and Philadelphia in 1991,
Miami in 2003, Kansas City in 2005).
Obviously 2002's realignment meant that
a different type of analysis was needed to project how a team will do in total wins
over the course of a season and what number of wins will be needed to make the Playoffs.
It will be several seasons before even tentative conclusions may be drawn. Realignment
has radically altered scheduling dynamics and how teams will qualify for the Playoffs.
For example, in the past every team played at least half of their games against Division
rivals. Now a team plays only six of their 16 games against Division foes so by definition
Divisional games are not as important as they had been in the past.
Also,
the Playoff field is now comprised of 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Cards instead
of 6 and 6. Thus we might see teams in a relatively weak Division reach the Playoffs
by winning the Division with a record of just 8-8. San Diego did exactly that in
2008. It will also be possible that a team could finish second in a division with
a 10-6 or 11-5 record but not make the Playoffs, such as was the case with New England,
also in 2008. Remember, there are now FOUR second place teams in each conference,
not just three. In the past it was possible for the top two finishers in EACH Division
to make the Playoffs. Such will no longer be the case. In 2002, for example, the
New York Jets made the Playoffs with just a 9-7 record by virtue of being the AFC
East champions. However, no team with more than 9 wins missed the Playoffs in 2002.
In 2003 only one 10 win team -- Miami -- failed to make the Playoffs and no team
with 9 or fewer wins made the Playoffs. The same was true in 2005 when Kansas City's
10 wins did not get them into the Playoffs but also no team with 9 or fewer wins
made the field either. In 2006 the New York Giants made the Playoffs with just 8
wins. In 2007 Cleveland missed the Playoffs despite 10 wins but no 9 win team failed
to make the Playoffs. And in 2008 11-5 New England missed the Playoffs while 8-8
San Diego made them. The 2008 New York Jets also missed the Playoffs despite their
9-7 record being better than that of the Chargers.
In looking at our 2010
Recommendations and Opinions note that they are presented in the chronological order
in which we have reviewed the teams. Unless otherwise indicated, all Recommendations
are weighted and rated equally at a single unit. In certain cases where the Over
or Under we prefer is so highly priced that we cannot in good conscience recommend
a straight play equal to one unit we will likely classify that play as either a Strong
or Weak Opinion, worth at most a half unit play. Generally these will be teams where
the Over/Under we prefer is priced at - 140 or higher.
Also, please note that
there may be hedging opportunities late in the season if some of our Recommendations/Opinions
are to be decided in the final week or two.