.
                           Open     Open     Open     Curr     Curr     Curr 
TEAM                       Wins     OVER     UNDR     Wins     OVER     UNDR 
-----------------------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
Arizona Cardinals          7 1/2    -110     -110     7 1/2    -140     +120 
Atlanta Falcons            9        Even     -120     9        -160     +140 
Baltimore Ravens          10        -110     -110    10        -120     Even 
Buffalo Bills              5 1/2    Even     -120     5 1/2    +140     -160 
Carolina Panthers          7 1/2    +110     -130     7 1/2    +150     -170 
Chicago Bears              8        +110     -130     8        +110     -130 
Cincinnati Bengals         7 1/2    -130     +110     8        -140     +120 
Cleveland Browns           5 1/2    +105     -125     5 1/2    -115     -105 
Dallas Cowboys             9 1/2    -165     +145     10       -145     +125 
Denver Broncos             7 1/2    -155     +135     7        -125     +105 
Detroit Lions              5        -135     +115     5        -135     +115 
Green Bay Packers          9 1/2    -165     +145    10        +110     -130 
Houston Texans             8        -130     +110     8        -160     +140 
Indianapolis Colts        11        +110     -130    11        +120     -140 
Jacksonville Jaguars       7        Even     -120     7        +115     -135 
Kansas City Chiefs         6 1/2    -150     +130     6 1/2    -130     +110 
Miami Dolphins             8 1/2    -110     -110     8 1/2    -110     -110 
Minnesota Vikings          9 1/2    -110     -110     9 1/2    -110     -110 
New England Patriots       9 1/2    -140     +120     9 1/2    -135     +115 
New Orleans Saints        10 1/2    Even     -120    10 1/2    +105     -125 
N Y Giants                 8 1/2    -120     Even     8 1/2    -150     +130 
N Y Jets                   9 1/2    +140     -160     9 1/2    -110     -110 
Oakland Raiders            6        Even     -120     6 1/2    -110     -110 
Philadelphia Eagles        8 1/2    -120     Even     8 1/2    +110     -130 
Pittsburgh Steelers        9        +130     -150     9        +145     -165 
St Louis Rams              5        +115     -135     4 1/2    -115     -105 
San Diego Chargers        11        +110     -130    11        +140     -160 
San Francisco 49ers        8 1/2    -145     +125     8 1/2    -155     +135 
Seattle Seahawks           7 1/2    -110     -110     7 1/2    -120     Even 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers       5 1/2    -110     -110     5 1/2    -150     +130 
Tennessee Titans           8 1/2    -130     +110     8 1/2    +130     -150 
Washington Redskins        7 1/2    +120     -140     7 1/2    -110     -110 



NOTE:  Totals have changed for Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Green Bay, Oakland
and St Louis

In approaching an analysis of playing individual teams to go Over or Under their respective win totals, several global perspectives need to be looked at first.

One key thing to keep in mind is that the public is usually geared to thinking in the positive -- i.e. that things will happen rather than that they won't. In other words, much as the public tends to prefer Favorites over Underdogs in betting the pointspread, and tends to prefer betting Over the Total Points as opposed to Under the Total Points in individual games, the Team Over/Under wins are geared more to betting the Over rather than the Under.

In seasons prior to 2007 there had been huge biases towards the OVER that resulted in the values being found in playing the UNDERs.

Yet in recent years the public -- especially the so-called "Wise Guys" part of the public -- has become more enlightened about sports betting in general, and Over/Under Season Wins in particular.

Interestingly, in 2009, if you totalled up the number of "projected wins" for all 32 teams it summed to 256.5. In 2008, that number summed to 252.5. In prior seasons it was not unusual for the "projected" wins to total in the mid to upper 260's. A look at the "vig" attached to the Overs and Unders shows that there has been a shift in that rather than having the public play OVER inflated Win Totals, the public must now pay an unusually high "vig" to play OVER more realistic (and slightly lower) Win Totals. More about this shortly as this has become a major change/development.

For 2010 the total wins sums to 257 1/2 for the Opening numbers and also 257.5 for the current numbers (thus far all teams remain at the Opening number of wins).

Barring any games that end in ties, there can only be 256 wins accumulated by the league as a whole, 256 being the total number of regular season games to be played.

Thus there was a slight bias towards the UNDER in 2008 which means that on a global basis there was slight value in betting the OVER. In 2009 there was a slight bias the other way.

And in 2010 the slight bias is again towards the OVER with the Total Wins summing to 257 1/2 as noted above.

Going even further, if one were to bet every team to go Over their total, because of the half wins for several of the teams it would take 279 wins overall to cash each ticket, or a league record for 256 games of 279-233, a spread of 46 games. If you were to bet every team OVER the total and those teams on whole numbers landed on those numbers you are still looking at a total number of games of 268 to WIN or PUSH betting every team to go OVER their Total, a variance of 24 games (268-244) from the 256 being playedl (this would result in 21 wins and 11 pushes).

Obviously this is impossible but compare this scenario to betting Under for all teams in which case the total number of wins needed to cash every ticket drops to 236, or an overall record of 236-276, a spread of 46 games. To WIN or PUSH every team going UNDER it Total would require a total of 247 wins, a variance of 18 games (247-265) from the total number of 256 games to be played (this would result in the same 21 wins and 11 pushes, obviously, since only the 21 teams with "half games" would not result in those Pushes).

Numerically there is essentially no global bias or value in 2010 with the Total Wins projected at almost exactly 256. One way to get an overview of what the linesmaker expects is to recast the above table in the form of projected standings, division by division. By doing this exercise we get the following projections.

.
   AFC EAST                           NFC EAST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   New England      9.5 -  6.5        Dallas           9.5 -  6.5        
   N Y Jets         9.5 -  6.5        Philadelphia     8.5 -  7.5        
   Miami            8.5 -  7.5        N Y Giants       8.5 -  7.5        
   Buffalo          5.5 - 10.5        Washington       7.5 -  8.5        


   AFC NORTH                          NFC NORTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Baltimore       10.0 -  6.0        Green Bay        9.5 -  6.5        
   Pittsburgh       9.0 -  7.0        Minnesota        9.5 -  6.5        
   Cincinnati       7.5 -  8.5        Chicago          8.0 -  8.0        
   Cleveland        5.5 - 10.5        Detroit          5.0 - 11.0        


   AFC SOUTH                          NFC SOUTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Indianapolis    11.0 -  5.0        New Orleans     10.5 -  5.5        
   Tennessee        8.5 -  7.5        Atlanta          9.0 -  7.0        
   Houston          8.0 -  8.0        Carolina         7.5 -  8.5        
   Jacksonville     7.0 -  9.0        Tampa Bay        5.5 - 10.5        


   AFC WEST                           NFC WEST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   San Diego       11.0 -  5.0        San Francisco    8.5 -  7.5        
   Denver           7.5 -  8.5        Arizona          7.5 -  8.5        
   Kansas City      6.5 -  9.5        Seattle          7.5 -  8.5        
   Oakland          6.0 - 10.0        St Louis         5.0 - 11.0        

By looking at the projected standings we can often spot teams that look out of place. Such teams are not necessarily those that are predicted to win divisions but rather may be teams projected to finish second or teams projected to finish last.

Note that with divisional realignment in 2002, there are now eight divisions, each with exactly four teams. This represents a dramatic change from the prior alignment which featured five divisions of five teams each and one division of six teams.

Major Change in Bookmaker Approach to NFL Over/Under Season Win Totals
===========================================================
In seasons past there was a built in value towards playing teams UNDER their season win totals as the sum of all team's projected wins would be significantly greater than the total number of games that would be played during an NFL season. For example, 32 teams playing a 16 game schedule results in a total of 256 regular season games. Often the total projected wins for the 32 teams would sum to the mid to upper 260's. In fact, between 2002 (the first season of 32 teams with the addition of the Houston Texans) through 2006 the sum of Projected Total Wins has been between 261 and 267. In 2007 we saw the sum drop to 257 1/2, just a game and a half more than the number of games to be played, but still with the slightest of edges towards playing the UNDER. But in 2008 the sum was just 252 -- actually creating an edge to the OVER. And in 2009 and 2010 the sum is virtually right on the 256 games that will be played during the regular season.

In 2008 this shift towards lower Projected Total Wins continued to a point where there was a numerical edge in playing the OVER. Summing the 32 Projected Win Totals yields a result of just 252 total wins -- 4 fewer than the number of games to be played. But rather than blindly conclued that there was now an edge in playing the OVER, closer inspection showed that any such edge was all but wiped out by the "vig" attached to playing the OVER.

A look at the first chart above shows that for 18 of the 32 teams bettors must lay a vig to play the OVER (using the Opening Lines). For only 9 teams is there a "plus" price on the OVER with 5 teams being priced at "Even Money" for the OVER. Compare that to the UNDER and we see that there are 20 teams that require the bettor to lay a vig to play the UNDER while the other 12 teams are priced at either Even Money (2 teams) or a plus price (10 teams) on the UNDER.

Two months into the wagering (early July) there were still just 6 teams that carried a "plus" price on the OVER while the 21 teams carried a "minus" vig and 5 teams were are Even Money. For the UNDER there were now 18 teams with a "minus" vig while the remaining 14 teams were either at a "plus" vig (12 teams) or at Even Money (2 teams). A number of the moves were toward "pick ems" where both the OVER and the UNDER had "minus" vigs such as each being - 110 in a true "pick em" wager.

A look at the past 12 seasons of NFL Season Total Overs/Unders (379 team seasons) there have been 180 OVERs, 187 UNDERs and 12 PUSHes -- nearly a 50/50 split that has averaged just 1/2 more UNDER than OVER per season for 12 seasons. As we all know, the closer results come to being 50/50, the better the Sports Books fare.

Thus in 2010 were you to play EVERY team to go OVER, using $100 as a standard unit of play (risking more than $100 to win $100 when laying vig or laying $100 to win $100 or more when playing even money or 'plus' teams) -- using the Current Win Totals and Vigs -- you would be risking a total of $3,820 to win $3,345 (by wagering $2,720 to win $2,100 on the 21 teams with minus vig and $1,100 to win $1,245 on the 11 teams with plus vig (6 teams) or at even money (5 teams)).

To play Every team to stay UNDER you would be risking a total of $3,635 to win $3,470 (by wagering $2,235 to win $ 1,800 on the 18 teams with minus vig and $1,400 to win $ 1,670 on the 14 teams with plus (12 teams) or even money vig (2 teams)).

So what we are seeing is a major shift in setting season Total Wins. Recognizing that the public generally prefers to bet the OVER, and recognizing that over the long run there will be nearly the same number of teams going OVER their Total Wins as will be going UNDER, by attaching more of a "minus" vig to playing the OVER results in a greater bottom line. What the Books may give up in terms of perhaps one additional OVER winner they will more than make up for in the added "net" vig they will collect on the OVER losers.

Thus, from a "vig" standpoint it has become even more attractive to seek out UNDERs as we are more likely to get them at Even Money or better, even though we may be playing UNDER a number that could be a half game lower than in the past (no way of knowing this, of course, as every season sets up uniquely, but the half game is a reasonable estimate based on the decline in the overall total of projected wins). At the same time, it becomes imperative to proceed cautiously when considering an OVER play as we must now pay a higher price than in the past to back the OVER, even though we are playing OVER a number that is roughly a half game lower than it might have been in the past (for the same reason as just mentioned for the UNDERs).

Therefore, we have seen a tradeoff involving the number of projected wins and the vigorish attached.

The approach we outline and discuss below regarding Playoff teams, combined with the detailed history we will provide, is still a valid way of looking for teams to play OVER their Totals while at the same time our similarly outlined approach to playing UNDERs offers greater returns due to the increased "plus" vigs.

In the past, our general approach was twofold -- to look for teams that figure to struggle and thus teams to be played Under the total, taking advantage of the built in value in the Under (now because of the attached vigorish as opposed to the previously discussed win totals). But there is also a strategy geared towards finding teams that may be played Over the total. This strategy involves looking for teams that one expects will make the Playoffs and has a total wins listed of 9 games or less.

In most seasons it will take at least 10 wins to qualify for a Wild Card. In fact, since the NFL adopted its present Playoff format of 12 teams (6 division winners and 6 Wild Cards beginning in 1990, since modified in 2002 with Realignment to 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Card teams but still producing 12 Playoff teams each season) there have been 240 teams to make the Playoffs in those 20 seasons. Of those 240 teams, 192 of them had at least 10 wins and another 40 teams had exactly 9 wins. Only 8 teams made the Playoffs with 8-8 records (including a Division winner, San Diego, in 2008). Looked at another way, 80.0% of all Playoff teams won at least 10 games and 96.7% of all Playoff teams won at least 9 games. Only 3.3% of all Playoff teams over the past 20 seasons made the Playoffs with just 8 wins.

Thus in looking to play teams Over their posted wins total the best strategy is to look for team with a good chance of making the playoffs and whose win totals are 9 or less. Generally these teams will have win totals between 7 and 9. Remember that 9 wins for a Playoff team should at least get you a 'push' on the Over and you have roughly a 4 in 5 chance of cashing your ticket should your team make the Playoffs since teams making the Playoffs have won at least 10 games 80% of the time.

In looking at teams you may expect to make the Playoffs use history as a guide. Since the NFL expanded to include 12 teams in the Playoffs in 1990 only an average of 6.2 teams make it to the Playoffs the following a Playoff appearance. That is, of the 12 Playoff teams from 2009 (Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, the New York Jets, Philadelphia, and San Diego) only 6 or 7 of them can be expected to again make the Playoffs again in 2010. Only once, in 1995, did as many as 8 of 12 Playoff teams make the Playoffs again the following season and only in 2003 did as few as 4 teams repeat (in 1999, 2005, 2006 and 2008 just 5 teams repeated from the previous season). Thus, 6 or 7 teams from 2009 can be expected to make the Playoffs in 2010. (Note that 6 Playoff teams from 2008 again made the Playoffs last season, in 2009).

Focus your OVER plays on those teams, especially the 5 or 6 teams you think may make the Playoffs this season after having missed out last season. Because of this recent high degree of parity -- in which 18 of the NFL's 32 teams have made the Playoffs over the past 2 seasons -- the OVER becomes more of a value if you are able to identify those teams that did not make the Playoffs a year ago but may have been in the Playoffs 2 or 3 seasons ago and seem to be improved entering this season.

Of the 14 teams that did not make the Playoffs in 2008 or 2009, 4 teams (Jacksonville, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Washington) made them in 2007 and 2 teams (Chicago and Kansas City) last made the Playoffs in 2006 meaning that 24 of the NFL's 32 teams, 75%, have made the Playoffs at least once in the past 4 seasons. Only 8 teams (Buffalo - 1999, Cleveland - 2002, Denver - 2005, Detroit - 1999, Houston -- never, Oakland -- 2002, St Louis -- 2004, San Francisco -- 2002) have not made the Playoffs in any of the last 4 seasons.

It is easier to decide upon teams to play Under the total for several reasons. Most developments during the season tend to be negative, generally in the form of extended or season-ending injuries. In looking for teams to play Under it is often a good strategy to look for teams that don't have much depth at several positions, especially at QB and other skill positions. A change in coaching staff or replacing of key players from the prior season can often lead to a slow start out of the gate.

Also let's look at the opposite of the statistics that define likely Playoff teams. Between 1990 and 2009 there have been 609 individual team seasons. 138 of those teams, or 22.7%, have won 5 or fewer games in a season. 89 of those 138 teams (14.6% of the overall 609 total) have won just 4 or fewer games. Usually, the LOWEST Over/Under Season Win Total will be 5 games. Using the historical percentage of 22.7% it is projected that 7 teams will win 5 or fewer games in 2010. Note that for 2010 NO TEAM is projected to win fewer than 5 games and only Detroit and St Louis are each projected to win exactly 5 games. Three other teams -- Buffalo, Cleveland and Tampa Bay -- are projected to win 5 1/2 with Oakland next at 6 games!

In each season since 1990 there were at least 2 teams that won 4 or fewer games and at least 4 teams that won 5 or less. Thus we can expect that 3 or 4 teams will win 4 or fewer games in 2010 and that another 2 or 3 teams will win exactly 5 games. Last season saw 5 teams win 4 or fewer games and 3 more win exactly 5 games.

The most likely prospects to win 5 or fewer games would generally be teams projected at 7 wins or less.

In 2008 there were 10 teams that won at least 10 games and 8 teams that won 5 or less. The New England Patriots became just the sixth teams since to win at least 10 games and not make the Playoffs. In fact, the Patriots were 11-5 but lost the AFC East title to Miami, also 11-5, on tie breakers. Unfortunately for the Pats Indianapolis earned the first AFC Wild Card with a 12-4 record and theBaltimore, also 11-5 like the Patriots, earned the second Wild Card on tie breakers. In 2007 there were 8 teams with 5 or fewer wins and 10 teams with 10 or more wins. In 2007 10-6 Cleveland became the fifth team since 1990 to win 10 games and not make the Playoffs. The previous 4 such teams also won exactly 10 games -- San Francisco and Philadelphia in 1991, Miami in 2003, Kansas City in 2005).

Obviously 2002's realignment meant that a different type of analysis was needed to project how a team will do in total wins over the course of a season and what number of wins will be needed to make the Playoffs. It will be several seasons before even tentative conclusions may be drawn. Realignment has radically altered scheduling dynamics and how teams will qualify for the Playoffs. For example, in the past every team played at least half of their games against Division rivals. Now a team plays only six of their 16 games against Division foes so by definition Divisional games are not as important as they had been in the past.

Also, the Playoff field is now comprised of 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Cards instead of 6 and 6. Thus we might see teams in a relatively weak Division reach the Playoffs by winning the Division with a record of just 8-8. San Diego did exactly that in 2008. It will also be possible that a team could finish second in a division with a 10-6 or 11-5 record but not make the Playoffs, such as was the case with New England, also in 2008. Remember, there are now FOUR second place teams in each conference, not just three. In the past it was possible for the top two finishers in EACH Division to make the Playoffs. Such will no longer be the case. In 2002, for example, the New York Jets made the Playoffs with just a 9-7 record by virtue of being the AFC East champions. However, no team with more than 9 wins missed the Playoffs in 2002. In 2003 only one 10 win team -- Miami -- failed to make the Playoffs and no team with 9 or fewer wins made the Playoffs. The same was true in 2005 when Kansas City's 10 wins did not get them into the Playoffs but also no team with 9 or fewer wins made the field either. In 2006 the New York Giants made the Playoffs with just 8 wins. In 2007 Cleveland missed the Playoffs despite 10 wins but no 9 win team failed to make the Playoffs. And in 2008 11-5 New England missed the Playoffs while 8-8 San Diego made them. The 2008 New York Jets also missed the Playoffs despite their 9-7 record being better than that of the Chargers.

In looking at our 2010 Recommendations and Opinions note that they are presented in the chronological order in which we have reviewed the teams. Unless otherwise indicated, all Recommendations are weighted and rated equally at a single unit. In certain cases where the Over or Under we prefer is so highly priced that we cannot in good conscience recommend a straight play equal to one unit we will likely classify that play as either a Strong or Weak Opinion, worth at most a half unit play. Generally these will be teams where the Over/Under we prefer is priced at - 140 or higher.

Also, please note that there may be hedging opportunities late in the season if some of our Recommendations/Opinions are to be decided in the final week or two.

In general, in the past, my analysis begins with a look at those teams I clearly expect to make the Playoffs.

In 2003 there were only two teams (Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) whose projected Total Wins were greater than 9 1/2.

In 2004 there were 7 teams with projected wins of at least 10.

For 2005 there were 5 teams with projected win totals of 10 or higher.

In 2006 there were 6 such teams.

In 2007 there were just 4 teams with projected win totals of 10 or higher (Chicago, Indianapolis, New England and San Diego).

In 2008, there were 5 teams projected to win 10 or more games, no teams projected at 9 1/2 wins and just 1 team at 9 wins. That means there were to be a minimum of at least 6 teams that would make the Playoffs who were projected to win fewer than 9 games! The ONLY NFC team with a projected win total of more than 8 1/2 was Dallas. That means the the Division winners of the NFC North, South and West were all projected to win fewer than 9 games.

In 2009 only 4 teams carried double digit win projections -- New England (11 1/2), Pittsburgh (10 1/2), Indianapolis (10) and the New York Giants (10). 2 other teams have projections of 9 1/2 wins (Philadelphia and San Diego) and 4 more teams are projected to win 9 games (Dallas, Green Bay, Minnesota and Tennessee). The top teams in the NFC South and NFC West carry projections of just 8 1/2 wins. Note that in 2008 Arizona won the NFC West with a 9-7 mark and 2 teams in the NFC South each topped the 8 1/2 games projected for that Division's winner as Carolina went 12-4 and Atlanta finished 11-5.

In 2010 just 4 teams have projected wins of 10 or more (Baltimore, Indianapolis, New Orleans and San Diego). Two more teams (Dallas and Green Bay) are projected to win 9 1/2 games but carry a huge vig towards the OVER (minus 175 and minus 150) that they are pretty much held in similar regard. Minnesota, New England and the New York Jets are also priced at 9 1/2 but with reasonable vigs towards the OVER of minus 125 or less. One team -- Atlatna -- is projected to win 9 games but also has a heavy vig to the OVER of minus 140.

Since Divisional Reallignment occurred beginning in 2002 -- 8 Divisions of 4 teams each -- ONLY ONCE (San Diego in 2008) has there been a Division winner with fewer than 9 wins -- Of the 64 Division winners between 2002 and 2009, there have also been just 5 Division winners to finish 9-7 (the Jets in 2002, Seattle in both 2004 and 2006, Tampa Bay in 2007 and Arizona in 2008). The other 59 Division winners have won AT LEAST 10 Games, including all 8 Division winners last season, 2009.

As stated above, 80% of all Playoff teams since 1990 have won at least 10 games. Also remember that history tells us that 5 or 6 teams that DID NOT make the Playoffs last season WILL make the Playoffs this season

And, in looking towards UNDERs, keep in mind that historically about 7 teams will finish the season with 5 or fewer wins. Only 2 team, Detroit (5) and St Lous (5), are projected to win 5 or fewer games in 2010 with 2 more teams (Buffalo and Cleveland) projected at 5 1/2 wins..

Here, then, are the Recommendations and Opinions for the 2010 NFL season.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -- OVER 8 1/2 (Priced at + 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- It's about time Eagles Coach Andy Reid gets credit for squeezing the most out of his team season after season. In his first season, 1999, the Eagles were projected to win 5 games and did exactly that, going 5-11 and PUSHING the season Total. In the 10 seasons since Reid's Eagles have gone OVER the Total 8 times and fallen UNDER just twice -- and one of those UNDERs was in 2005 when QB McNabb was lost for half a season to injury, RB Brian Westbrook also missed significant time and there was the major Terrell Owens controversy. The other UNDER came in 2007 when Philly finished 8-8 with a projected win Total of 9. That record of 8-2-1 is spectacular in this era of parity. Sure, McNabb is now with Division rival Washington and Reid is confident Kevin Kolb is an upgrade at the position given McNabb's age and diminishing skills. Mike Vick is certainly an acceptable insurance policy should Kolb disappoint or be injured. The defense declined last season in the wake of the death of longtime coordinator Jim Johnson prior to the season but there is reason to expect improvement this season. And special teams should be one of the league's best with longtime Buffalo coach Mike April now in charge. Philly has won at least 9 games in 8 of the past 10 seasons and the talent and depth is there with a solid blend of youth and veteran leadership to expect the Eagles to again contend for the Playoffs. Recommendation Date -- August 1, 2010. -- WINNER


TENNESSEE TITANS -- OVER 8 1/2 (Priced at + 120 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- After going unbeaten through 10 games in 2008 the Titans went 3-3 to end the season before losing by a FG at home to Baltimore for an early exit from the Playoffs. That late season fade carried over to 2009 as Tennessee lost their first 6 games, the last of which a 59-0 embarassing loss at New England. But veteran coach Jeff Fisher was able to push the right buttons and rather than quit on the season his team won 5 straight and 8 of 10 to finish 8-8 and build some momentum for 2010. The Titans have been a solid franchise for many seasons and Fisher is the longest tenured NFL coach, having started when the franchise was in Houston back in 1994. Part of the Titans' problems early in 2009 were on a defense in transition but that defense stabilized over the second half of the season. The offense has a capable QB in Vince Young who finally showed some leadership in 2009. But the offense was led by a great ground attack that averaged a league best 5.2 yards per carry (second best was 4.8). The projected wins last season was 9 and the Titans fell a game short even with an 0-6 start. In recent seasons the Titans have fared well against the NFC, winning all 4 interconference games in both 2008 and 2009 (vs NFC North and West) and going 3-1 in 2007 vs. the NFC South and 3-1 in 2006 against the NFC East (which they play this season). 3 of the 4 NFC East teams made the Playoffs in 2006. There are more reasons to believe the Titans will contend for the Playoffs (in a Division still dominated by the Colts) than there are reasons to believe they will be non-contenders. The plus price makes this an attractive Recommendation. Recommendation Date -- August 1, 2010. -- LOSER


DALLAS COWBOYS -- OVER 10 (Priced at - 130 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Dallas has drafted well in recent years and arguably may be the most talented team in the NFL with great balance, great athletes and excellent depth. There is a fine combination of veterans and youth and their play at the end of last season, which included their first Playoff win in more than a decade, set the stage for the Cowboys to be a Super Bowl contender for the next several seasons. With playmakers on both sides of the ball, Dallas is well positioned to win games with either their offense or their defense. The ground game averaged nearly 5 yards per carry last season and the offense overall was just under 400 ypg. The defense -- especially against the run -- was better than average. With the off season moves made by Philadelphia and Washington the Cowboys would appear to clearly be the class of the NFC East and argualby the team to beat in the NFC. Since 1990 an average of 10 teams per season have won at least 10 games and an average of 7 teams have won at least 11. Dallas certainly fits the profile of a team likely to fit this profile in 2010 and the it is much easier to see the Cowboys going 11-5 or better than to see them decline to 9-7 or worse. This is a team still on the rise in terms of team life cycle with their best play and accomplishments ahead of them. Recommendation Date -- August 10, 2010. -- LOSER


OAKLAND RAIDERS -- UNDER 6 (Priced at + 130 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Clearly the Raiders appear to be an improved team after jettisoning QB JaMarcus Russell and bringing in Jason Campbell from Washington. But the problems go beyond QB. This is a team with very little talent at the skill positions, especially WR. And the defense has been horrible for the past several seasons, allowing 342 ypg, 361 ypg and 362 ypg from 2007 through 2009, including between 146 and 160 ypg on the ground (4.5 to 4.8 yards per carry). To cash a ticket on the OVER would require the Raiders to finish at 7-9 or better and this team has not won more than 5 in any of the past 7 seasons. That's asking for a bit too much improvement over last season when they were a misleading 5-11. Each of their wins was by 4 points or less (winning by 3, 4, 3, 3 and 1). 7 of their 11 losses were by at least 14 points with 3 of them at home. There's still a huge gap in talent between the Raiders and San Diego and both Kansas City and Denver appear improved. It will be hard for Oakland to match the 2 Division wins they've had each of the past 3 seasons, much less improve upon them. The schedule does them no favors either as they have only 4 games against teams that won fewer than 7 games last season and 2 of those are against Division rival Kansas City. Recommendation Date -- August 10, 2010. -- NOTE -- Since this Recommendation was posted the Hilton has raised Oakland's Win Total to 6 1/2 with the UNDER priced at - 110, making the UNDER playable at either the UNDER 6 posted above or at the "revised" UNDER 6 1/2 -- LOSER


CAROLINA PANTHERS -- OVER 7 1/2 (Priced at + 150 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- I've always been a beliver in coach John Fox who turned around a moribund franchise pretty much overnight. He took over a team that was 1-15 in 2001 and had them in the Super Bowl just 2 seasons later and back to the NFC Title games two seasons after that. The Panthers have made the Playoffs just once in the past 4 seasons, in 2008 when the tied the Giants for the best record in the NFC. They have a strong running game with the duo of Williams and Stewart. The defense has been a strength over the years (5 times in the top 10 in the last 8 seasons) and although they've suffered some key defections this offseason, most notably Julius Peppers, Fox has shown he is a shrewd tactician in evaluating personnel. QB play of Jake DelHomme was their downfall last season and Matt Moore played well down the stretch to earn the starting job this season. Just two seasons removed from a 12-4 record and with one of the league's best running attacks, the Panthers have the personnel to finish at least at .500. Carolina has won at least 8 games in 5 of the last 7 seasons, with the other two seasons finishing just short of .500 at 8-8. In three of the past 7 seasons Carolina has won at least 11 games. Schedule-wise they play the AFC North this season for the AFC East, against which they were 0-4 last season, providing more upside for wins in 2010. Recommendation Date -- August 21, 2010. -- LOSER


WASHINGTON REDSKINS -- UNDER 7 1/2 (Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- It's clear that there has been a coaching upgrade from Jim Zorn to Mike Shanahan and, at least in theory, an upgrade at QB from Jason Campbell to Donovan McNabb (though there is a valid debate). But there are too many holes to fill, especially at RB and on the offensive line, to suggest a doubling of last season's 8 wins is achievable, especially in a Division that has three other solid teams, each of which is considered a Playoff contender. It will take time for Shanahan to fully evaluate his personnel and make adjustments. Consequently the Redskins are likely to struggle early in the season but show improvement late. They should finish better than the 4-12 of last season. They were competitive in many of those losses (only 4 were by more than 8 points and 5 were by a FG or less) But they do face a challenging non-Division schedule, playing back to back home games against Indianapolis and Green Bay in the first half of the season and also host Minnesota in week 12. 11 of their 16 games are against teams that finished 8-8 or better last season with 7 games against teams that made last season's Playoffs. 5 of their first 6 games are against 4 Playoff teams and 9-7 Houston which could mean a very rough start to the season that could take a toll mentally and emotionally. That's where the savvy of Shanahan may be tested most in keeping his team together. The defense is a strength but there are age concerns. Look for the Redskins to be a "play against" team early in the season and a "play on" team over the final half of the season as they build a foundation that will have them a likely Playoff contender in 2011. That is, if there is a 2011 season. For 2010 a 7-9 record would be a major step forward but the most likely scenario has the 'Skins winning 5 or 6 games. Recommendation Date -- August 30, 2010 -- WINNER.


CLEVELAND BROWNS -- UNDER 5 1/2 (Priced at + 120 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The Browns are an interesting team to forecast for 2010 as they might be carrying over momentum from the end of 2009 when they won their final four games after going 1-11 in the first dozen, thereby saving coach Eric Mangini's job. Some reports wonder how thrilled the players are to have Mangini back in charge as he upset many on the roster with his rules, fines, etc. Mike Holmgren was brought in as team President and will oversee personnel. It's debatable if the Browns made a positive QB change by getting rid of both Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson and replacing the duo with Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace as his backup. Cleveland did display a strong running game at the end of last season but they have one of the weakest passing attacks in the league with very questionable talent at WR. The defense is also a concern and although there may be decent talent because the offense has such short possessions the defense is called upon to carry too much of a burden. All in all the addition of Holmgren to the front office signals a change for the positive for the Browns but a change which may take a few seasons and off-seasons to show on the field. For now the Browns are likely to again finish last in an improved AFC North and my forecast calls for a 4-12 season with Cleveland being one of those teams most likely to win 5 or fewer games this season. Recommendation Date -- September 6, 2010. -- WINNER


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -- UNDER 5 1/2 (Priced at + 115 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Tampa remains a team in the rebuilding process and plays in a Division with 3 other tough teams, making advancement difficult within the NFC South and it's tough to see them improving upon their 1-5 Divisional record from 2009. The schedule is especially brutal as the Buccs face just two teams that had a losing record in 2009 in their first 12 games this season (Cleveland in week 1 and St Louis in week 5, though both are at home). Tampa figures to be underdogs in at least a dozen games this season and perhaps a couple more towards the end of the season. And it's quite possible to see them losing at least one of the games in which they may be favored (i.e. Cleveland or St Louis). They will rely on a second year QB (Josh Freeman) who is considered ordinary at best and they have little depth at most key positions. The defense also is bereft of much talent. Tampa certainly appears to be in the discussion of teams most likely to finish with the worst record in the league this season and certainly is a strong candidate to finish in that group of from 5 to 7 teams that end up with 5 or fewer wins. Recommendation Date -- September 11, 2010. -- LOSER

Often, Strong Opinions differ from both Recommendations and Weak Opinions in the following way. In making a Recommendation both the Total Number of Wins and the +/- Price must be favorable, especially since there is a several month wait before the results are known. As such it may be impractical or uncomfortable in making a Recommendation on a team to go Over or Under a specified number -- even though the assigned probabilities may be great -- if to do so means laying a price say, in excess of minus 130. Thus a Strong Opinion may often be looked at a play that would have been looked at as a Recommended Play but for the 'vig' attached whereas a Weak Opinion is one that is classified as such more likely because the probabilites assigned to the Over/Under are such that the likelihood of a winning result is considerably less than that of a Recommendation.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -- OVER 11 (Priced at + 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The coaching transition from Tony Dungy to Jim Caldwell was smoother than anyone could have expected and the Colts were on the verge of an unbeaten season until they pulled their starters in the second half of game 15 after their 14-0 start. Even after dropiing their regular season finale the Colts won their two AFC Playoff games and made it to the Super Bowl, losing to the New Orleans Saints. 2009 marked the seventh straight season in which the Colts won at least 12 games and as long as QB Peyton Manning stays healthy there are few reasons to suggest that the Colts will show a precititous drop in wins in 2010. Manning remains a durable QB with an offensive line that protects him as few O Lines have protected others at his position. The defense is just average but "just average" suffices with an offense led by P Manning. And he should have WR Anthony Gonzalez available for a full season in 2010. Nay sayers will point to the number of close calls the Colts had in 2009 but part of Indy's success has been their ability to make the late drive when needed. Bill Pollian remains one of the best front office men in NFL history as he continues to make moves to solidify areas of concern. The Colts can't continue to win 12 games forever can they? Probably not but that question's been asked for the past several seasons. As long as Manning remains healthy and Pollian remains in charge the Colts should again be the class of the AFC South and of the AFC overall with a 12-4 or better record a more likely scenario than a fall to 10-6 or worse. Still, with the smallest margin for error of any team (along with San Diego) this remains a Strong Opinion rather than a Full Recommendation. Recommendation Date -- August 1, 2010. -- LOSER


SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -- UNDER 8 1/2 (Priced at +135 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The 49ers are a fashionable choice within the handicapping community to advance from medicrity to Playoff status in 2010, largely because of the improvement they've shown since Mike Singletary took over as head coach midway through the 2008 season. The Niners have shown steady improvement over much of the past decade following their low point of 2-14 in 2004. After going 4-12 in 2005 the Niners have won 7, 5, 7 and 8 games in the following four seasons and seem poised to take that next stip in whai is considered a weak NFC West in which future Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner retired from Arizona, the team that won the Division each of the past two seasons. But not so fast, yes, the Niners are an improved team but keep in mind that they were 5-1 within the Division last season, including a sweep of the Cardinals, so any decline from Arizona would not add to the Niners win total from last season as they were 2-0 in that rivalry. Truem, the Niners do play the AFC West in 2010 after going 1-3 against AFC South teams in 2009. In addition to San Diego they also must face three other Playoff teams from last season, including SB Champs New Orleans (also Green Bay and Philadelphia). While a 9-7 season is quite possible, there are still major concerns about QB Alex Smith and a defense that faced some weak offenses in 2009. With three road games in their first four games, followed by a home game against Philadelphia, the Niners could get off to a shaky start. The attractive plus price for the UNDER makes this a Strong Opinion while the Win Total of 8 1/2 rather than 9 keeps this as an Opinion rather than a Full Recommendation. Opinion Date -- August 21, 2010. -- WINNER


GREEN BAY PACKERS -- OVER 10 (Priced at +110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Although Minnesota and the status of current Viking (and ex-Green Bay) QB Brett Favre has attracted much of the summer headlines the Packers are quietly gaining the admiration of many observers as being the team to beat in the NFC North. There has been great stability in Packerland this past offseason and in 2009 Favre's replacement at QB, Aaron Rodgers, took another step towards elite status by following up a pressure filled 2008 with an outstanding 2009 season. The defense also made great strides last season under first season coordinator Dom Capers, long considered one of the best defensive minds in the game. The defense ranked # 2 in the NFL last season after ranking # 20 a season earlier. The offense has not been a problem, ranking the league's Top Ten in each of the past five seasons. The Packers were a solid 11-5 last season and that record included a pair of emotionally charged losses to Favre and the Vikings. In 2010 the emotions will more likely favor Green Bay. The Interleague schedule has the Pack facing the AFC East but they are likely to fare no worse than the 2-2 record they compiled against the AFC North in 2009. With another year of experience leading the offense Rodgers should be able to duplicate last season's results while the defense, with a full season of having had Capers' tutelage, should maintain if not improve upon last season's success. Hence, a repeat of last season's 11-5 record can be expected with the possibility of perhaps even a couple more wins. And let's not forget, the Packers made the NFC Championship Game in Favre's last season as a Packer, 2007, when they had a 13-3 regular season. The drop off to 6-10 in 2008 was not a surprise, considering the Favre retirement mess that ultimately resulted in a trade to the Jets and set the tone for a dysfunctional season. The bounceback to 11-5 in 2009 should be looked more as a continuation of 2007's success and set the stage for further improvement in 2010. Had the Win Total stayed at 9 1/2 (or if you can find it at a non-onerous vig) this would have been a Full Recommendation rather than just a Strong Opinion. Opinion Date -- August 21, 2010. -- PUSH


CINCINNATI BENGALS -- UNDER 8 (Priced at + 120 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The Bengals were one of the surprise teams in 2009 but perhaps there was some hint of what was to come in how they finished 2008. Cincy was 4-11-1 in 2008 but was 1-11-1 before winning their final 3 games of the season to provide some positive momentum into that offseason. True, the wins were over a trio of weak teams (Washington, Cleveland and Kansas City) but scores of 20-13, 14-0 and 16-6 hinted that perhaps coach Marvin Lewis' forte -- defense -- was finally taking hold. Indeed, the Bengals were a much improved team defensively in 2009 but they faded down the stretch, going 1-3 following a 9-3 start. They then lost at home to the Jets in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs. Under Lewis the Bengals have become an average franchise after being in the doldrums for more than a decade prior to his arrival in 2003. But under his tenure the Bengals have been unable to post back to back winning seasons, with three seasons of 8-8 in addition to a pair of winning seasons and seasons of 7-9 and that 4-11-1 of 2008. True, they did beef up the receiving corps this past offseason to address some of their offensive shortcomings. But part of the UNDER sentiment for Cincy stems from their unlikelihood of repeating last season's 6-0 record within their Division. Outside of the AFC North Cincinnati was just 4-6. Quite likely they will do no better than split against Baltimore and Pittsburgh this season. By winning the Division last season they get a first place schedule this season, facing both San Diego and Indianapolis instead of the Jets and Houston. The balance of the schedule is also tougher, facing the four teams in the AFC East and NFC South rather than the AFC West and NFC North they faced last season. There is decent value in taking advantage of the betting public's optimism for the Bengals which caused an adjustment in the Win Total. UNDER 8 is much more attractive than when the Bengals were posted at 7 1/2 wins, especially with the plus vig. 8-8 is probably a good record to expect from the Bengals in 2010 with a 7-9 mark more likely than 9-7. Opinion Date -- August 25, 2010. -- WINNER


DETROIT LIONS -- UNDER 5 (Priced at + 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- By going 0-16 in 2008 Detroit hit rock bottom. They showed modest improvement in 2009 with a 2-14 record bu there is still a long distance to go before the Lions figure to be competitive and challenge for a .500 record, much less a Playoff berth. Their 2 wins last season both came at home and were by less than a touchdown against weak teams -- 19-14 over 4-12 Washington and a wild 38-37 win over 5-11 Cleveland. And while you do have to start somewhere on the path back to respectability Detroit's many one sided losses in 2009 remain a major concern. 9 of their 14 losses were by 14 points or more with 4 of the 9 by more than 21 points. That's just too much ground to make up in terms of turnin so many of those non-competitive losses into wins. Rather, Detroit's progress may well come in terms of being more competitive in losses this season. They drafted well the past two seasons and have the nucleus of a team that should show growth over the next few seasons. But in 2010 their lack of depth and their inexperience suggests the Lions are more likely to finish 4-12 or worse than they are to have a 6-10 record. The future may be starting to look bright for the Lions but that future occurs after 2010. Opinion Date -- August 27, 2010. -- LOSER


PITTSBURGH STEELERS -- OVER 9 (Priced at + 145 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Much of the pessimism surrounding Pittsburgh relates to the suspension of starting QB Ben Roethlisberger for at least the first four games of the season for off-the-field conduct. It could be as many as six games but most observers believe the suspension will just 4 games. Veteran backup Byron Leftwich is likely to start in his place although young Dennis Dixon has been impressive this summer. But perhaps the player who has the biggest impact on Pittsburgh's fate is on defense -- Troy Polamalu. His absence was huge last year when he misses most of the season. Yet the Steelers still finished 9-7, missing the Playoffs on tie-breakers. Pittsburgh has been one of the NFL's model franchise and one of the most successful for nearly 40 years. They have two Super Bowl wins in the past decade (6 overall) and have won at least 9 regular season games 8 times in the last 10 seasons, winning 10 or more 6 times. Their two non-winning seasons this past decade were 6-10 in 2003 and 8-8 in 2006. Their 9-7 log last season included two losses to Cincinnati and one to Cleveland, a feat not likely to be repeated. They also suffered a loss to Oakland. There are many more things to like about this team than to dislike and given the overall quality of talent, both on the field and on the sidelines, suggests the Steelers are well positioned to make the Playoffs in 2010. They did finish strong in 2009, winning their final 3 games. This is a solid team, built upon defense and likely to start the season no worse than 2-2 without their star QB and it would not be a surprise to see 3-1 out of the gate. Opinion Date -- August 27, 2010. -- WINNER


NEW YORK GIANTS -- OVER 8 1/2 (Priced at - 150 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The Giants' 5-0 start in 2009 came largely against some of the weakest teams in the league, a fact that was made clear by defensive breakdowns that occurred most of the second half of the season as the Giants then went 3-8 to finish at 8-8. But defensive changes/upgrades were made in the offseason including a new defensive coordinator. The offense still relies heavily on the run although QB Eli Manning continues to improve and should have a wealth of receivng targets this season. Prior to last season the Giants had made the Playoffs 4 seasons in a row, defeating New England in Super Bowl XLII following the 2007 season and then earning the top NFC seed in 2008. There are more reasons to suggest the G-Men are likely to return to their pre-2009 form rather than to continue last season's regression. The Giants have been one of the most stable organization in the NFL for years and coach Tom Coughlin has a solid track record, having success both here and previously in Jacksonville. The schedule appears more difficult in 2010 but as an indication of the talent on the Giants they did manage to defeat Dallas twice last season with one early season win and one in the season's second half. In considering the potential scenarios for how 2010 may unfold the most likely outcomes have the Giants going 9-7 or 10-6 with a much less likelihood of 8-8 or worse. The high vig tempers this enthusiasm, however, and keeps this as an Opinion rather than a Recommendation. Opinion Date -- September 2, 2010. -- WINNER

BALTIMORE RAVENS -- OVER 10 (Priced at - 130 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The Ravens have made the playoffs in each of the two seasons of coach John Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco. Baltimore has also gone 3-2 in the Playoffs, playing all 5 games on the road. There appears to be plenty of upside potential for the Ravens who bolstered the offense in the offseason with the acquistion of WR Anquan Boldin to complement RB Ray Rice, an emerging elite back. There are some concerns about an aging defense and key defender Ed Reed is lost for perhaps the first half of the season. But defensive leader Ray Lewis still has plenty of football in him and any dropoff in the defense should be more than compensated for by the beefed up offense. After going 11-5 in 2008 the Ravens did drop to 9-7 last season, making the Playoffs as a WIld Card. They won their opening round Playoff game in convincing fashion, routing New England 33-14 on the road before falling at Indianapolis. But the Ravens lost twice to Division champion Cincinnati last season and a repeat of that double failure is unlikely. My analysis of the schedule shows 12-4 as a very likely result for the Ravens this season but the aging defense and injury concerns keep this as being a Strong Opinion rather than a Full Recommendation although the reasonable vig makes the Opinion attractive. Opinion Date -- September 6, 2010. -- WINNER


CHICAGO BEARS -- OVER 7 1/2 (Priced at + 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- This Total has been adjusted downwards by a half game from 8 to 7 1/2 and the initial vig on the 7 1/2 was minus 150 on the OVER, which makes sense when adjusting a Total downwards. But heavy action on the UNDER suggests the adjustment might not have been enough. Perhaps this has been too much of an overreaction to Chicago's poor performance on offense during the preseason when the Bears scored 10, 17, 9 and 10 points, including points scored by the reserves. Not very inspiring to say the least. But note that it takes time to fully learn new offensive coordinator Mike Martz' complex offense and teams often hold back in showing too much of a new offense until the games count. Chicago has added some depth to their offense this season, most notably with the addition of versatile RB Chester Taylor. The defense will also be strengthened with Julius Peppers coming over from Carolina and a healthy Brian Urlacher. Since their Playoff seasons of 2005 and 2006 the Bears have been basically a .500 team with seasons of 7-9, 9-7 and 7-9. Upgrades on both sides of the football suggest that Chicago has a shot at not just a winning season but even contending for a Wild Card. We'll settle for 8-8 with a favorable early season schedule capable of giving the Bears added confidence heading into mid-season. Opinion Date -- September 6, 2010. -- WINNER


DENVER BRONCOS -- UNDER 7 (Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Almost universally shunned heading into the 2009 season, with a new QB and a new head coach from outside the organization to replace longtime leader Mike Shanahan, Denver stunned the football world with a 6-0 start that virtually guananteed the Broncos a spot in the Playoffs. But reality set in as Denver proceeded to have a pair of 4 game losing streaks sandwiched around wins over the Giants and Kansas City to finish the season 8-8. While the record was better than expected the 2-8 finish was more along the lines of what was expected from a team in transition. The prospects for a repeat of that 8-8 season are not that great given some key departures and losses on both sides of the ball. First the Broncos traded away WR Brandon Marshall who is extremely talented even if becomes a distraction at times. Running back injuries in training camp further hurt the offense. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan was let go after doing a fine job in rebuiliding the Denver defense. And star DL Elvis Dumervil was injured early in training camp and is out for the season. Those losses would appear to be too much to overcome and although there may be some improvement shown over the course of the season that improvement may not be evident in the record. The Broncos split with their 3 Division rivals in 2009, winning the first meetings but losing all 3 rematches. With Kansas City and Oakland both expected to be improved the Broncos might not be able to duplicate that split in 2010. All in all a drop to 5-11 or 6-10 are the most likely scenarios but because the Broncos have not finished worse than 7-9 (2007) since going 6-10 in 1999, year 1 of PE (Post Elway) some respect must be given to historic franchise strength, which keeps this from being a Full Recommendation. Opinion Date -- September 6, 2010. -- WINNER


HOUSTON TEXANS -- UNDER 8 1/2 (Priced at + 115 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- This is another Total that has moved a half game. Originally priced at 8 with the OVER at -160 the Texans are now priced at 8 1/2 with a plus price on the UNDER. Houston had the first winning season in franchise history in 2009, going 9-7 after a pair of 8-8 seasons. The talent is there to continue making progress but the talent has been there for several seasons and in most circles the Texans are considered to have underachieved under coach Gary Kubiak who seems to have fared much better as an offensive coordinator than as a head coach. A trip to the Playoffs this season may be needed to save his job and the talent is certainly on hand. But the schedule in 2010 is tough, especially in the way it is laid out. The Texans open the season against Indianapolis, at Washington and then hosting Dallas. Following their Bye in week 7 they have only 2 games in their final 10 against teams that had losing records in 2009 and both of those are against Division rival Jacksonville which finished barely with a losing record at 7-9. A key game is that week 2 contest at Washington as the Texans might have a letdown if they are finally able to defeat the Colts in their opener or they could be in a funk following yet another loss. Again, the talent is there for the Texans to not just equal last season's 9 wins but to exceed that number which is why this cannot be a Full Recommendation. Yet the daunting schedule and the plus vig on the UNDER makes this a Strong rather than a Weak Opinion. Opinion Date -- September 6, 2010. -- WINNER


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -- UNDER 10 1/2 (Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The Saints' Super Bowl win was a nice story and sort of officially capped the city's comeback from Hurricane Katrina back in 2005 when the Saints were vagabonds and played home games in several different cities. But New Orleans has historically not been an elite franchise with winning seasons and back to back Playoff seasons few and far between. The Saints rode emotion to 10-6 season the year after Katrina, but fell back to mediocrity with 7-9 and 8-8 seasons in 2007 and 2008. It's tough for the Super Bowl Champion to repeat and, in fact, 4 of the past 8 Super Bowl champs failed to even make the Playoffs the following season. New Orleans was fortunate defensively last season and they benefitted from many key plays from their aggressive and opportunistic defense. In 2010 the Saints assume the role of the hunted and will receive serious attention and preparation from all foes. They face the 4 teams from the AFC North this season after going 4-0 against the AFC East in 2009. The talent is clearly on hand for a return to the Playoffs and another winning season but that's usually been the case with past Super Bowl winners. It's tough to maintain the same intensity the following season, however, and upcoming foes have had a full offseason to breakdown why New Orleans was so successful last season. It's a gutsy call but the Saints could fall back to perhaps just an 8-8 record. This was almost a Full Recommendation but fell just short. Opinion Date -- September 8 2010. -- LOSER


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -- OVER 9 1/2 (Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Until shown otherwise the Patriots are still the class of the AFC East, especially with QB Tom Brady still at the peak of his career and Bill Belichick roaming the sidelines and making decisions. New England has won or shared the AFC East title for 9 STRAIGHT SEASONS, winning 7 outright and sharing the crown twice (in 2002 and 2008 when they missed the Playoffs due to tie breakers). In all but 2002, when they were in a 3 way tie with Miami and the New York Jets at 9-7, the Patriots have won at least 10 games each season. In a league that prides itself on parity, and which sees normally a 50% turnover in the Playoff field from one season to the next, New England's run of excellence is even more remarkable. Yes, there are concerns about the running game on offense and questions about the defense but as long as Brady and Belichick are in control answers will be found throughout the season as adjustments are made. Even when Brady went down in the first half of the first game of 2008 the Pats managed an 11-5 season behind little known QB Matt Cassel. While a repeat of such a feat may be questionable should Brady go down in 2010 whose to say Belichick would not find a way to compensate and overcome. Brady should be even better and less tentative in 2010 now that he is two seasons removed from injury. This is perhaps our strongest Strong Opinion that falls just short of a Full Recommendation, largely due to the overall strength of the AFC East and a demanding schedule but New England appears to be the team to beat and should win at least, and probably more than, 10 games. Opinion Date -- September 11, 2010 -- WINNER.

ST LOUIS RAMS -- UNDER 4 1/2 (Priced at - 105 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- This line originally was posted at 5 with the UNDER priced around minus 130. At that line and price the UNDER would have been a Strong Opinion but the drop from 5 to 4 1/2 tempers the enthusiasm as there is less of a margin of error in that previously a record of 5-11 would have resulted in a PUSH whereas it now would result in a LOSS. It is hard to see the Rams finishing at 6-10 or better given their past three seasons which featured just 3 wins in 2007, 2 wins in 2008 and 1 win in 2009. Their lone win in 2009 was against Detroit, a team that was 0-16 the season before and would finish just 2-14 in 2009. It is still tough to see the Rams show enough improvement to finish at 5-11 but the drop in the half game could come into play, especially considering two Division rivals -- Arizona and Seattle -- both appear weaker than in 2009 and both of whom swept the Rams in their season series. The Rams were totally outclassed in many of their games last season and now turn to a rookie QB to continue to rebuild. They suffered 7 losses of 21 points or more -- that's nearly half their schedule! Plus 2 more double digit losses (by 10 and 19 points). There are problems on both sides of the football and a general dearth of talent and depth that suggests it will take more than 1 season before this team can approach respectability and contend for even a .500 record. The Rams are again a candidate to finish with the worst record in the NFL and were the price a "plus" at UNDER 4 1/2 this would be enough to move this from a Weak Opinion to a Strong Opinion so keep your eyes peeled for the possibility of playing UNDER 5 (at minus 130 or better) or UNDER 4 1/2 at a plus price. OPINION DATE -- August 21, 2010. -- LOSER


NEW YORK JETS -- OVER 9 1/2 (Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The initial inclination for the Jets was to look at the UNDER as few teams have received as much hype as have the Rex Ryan coached Jets. True, they were 9-7 last season but got a couple of gift wins in their final two regular season games when both Indianapolis and Cincinnati put forth minimal effort in the final two games of the sesaon, enabling the 7-7 Jets to finish 9-7, make the Playoffs and then win at Cincinnati and San Diego before losing in Indianapolis in the AFC Championship. The Jets used a tried and true formula for their success -- and outstanding rushing game on offense and an aggressive, proactive defense. Whether the Jets can repeat that successful formula in 2010 is the key question following a number of offeseason personnel decisions that took away some veteran leadership even though solid veterans were also brought in as replacements. But part of the reason for being bullish rather than bearish on the Jets for 2010 relates to how much improvement is required for the Jets to show they are a legitimate Playoff team rather than one that needed good fortune. First, the Jets lost twice to Division rival Miami in 2009 in games decided by just 4 and 5 points. Clearly an extra win is possible from their 2010 rivalry renewal. And, in fact, the Jets were close to being a very, very good team in 2009 with both a rookie head coach and a rookie QB, Mark Sanchez. Only 2 of their 7 regular season losses were by more than 5 points. Put another way, the Jets were not that far from being 14-2 rather than 9-7 (or 12-2 rather than 7-7 heading into those final two games). Though falling short of the big prize, the Jets franchise is no stranger to successful seasons over the past decade as the Jets have won at least 10 regular season games 4 times in the last 8 seasons. Regardless of how the holdout of CB Darrelle Revis is resolved, the Jets have the talent, the attitude and the experiense to build upon last season's success that may have been much greater than has been acknowledged because of those close losses. Still, the fact that so many observers have the Jets so highly rated keeps this as a Weak, rather than a Strong, Opinion. Opinion Date -- August 21, 2010. -- WINNER


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -- UNDER 7 (Priced at - 135 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The Jaguars of recent seasons can best be looked at as a talented team that underachieved. Though the talent is not overwhelming it is enough to suggest that the Jags should have been a Playoff team in each of the past 2 seasons. Perhaps coach Jack del Rio, now in his eighth season, has lost his effectiveness, especially down the stretch. The Jags faded badly the past two seasons. In 2008 Jacksonville 4-5 with a chance to salvage their season but lost 6 of 7 to finish 5-11. The collapse was even greater last season. After standing 7-5 with four games to go, and very much in control of the Playoff fate, the Jags dropped their final 4 games to finish 7-9. That's what keeps this UNDER as a weak opinion. The nucleus of talent is there for at the least a .500 record and at best a legitimate shot at earning a Wild Card. But the efforts of the last two seasons combined with the overwhelming lack of support in the Jacksonville community suggests the road to .500 or better will be tough, especially if they struggle early. And the first part of their schedule is formidable with 7 of their first 9 opponents having had records on .500 or better in 2009. And 8 of those 9 games come before their BYE. Also keeping this as a Weak rather than a Strong Opinion is the healthy minus vig attached to the UNDER. There are cases that can be made for the Jags playing up to their talent level and achieving a .500 record or better. But the recent history of late season collapses, playing in a Division with three other teams that likely each contend for the Playoffs, and a defense that has declined statistically each of the past 3 seasons provide more support for pessimism rather than optimism. Opinion Date -- August 25, 2010. -- LOSER


ARIZONA CARDINALS -- UNDER 7 1/2 (Priced at + 115 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- 2010 will be a season of transition for the two time NFC West defending champions as key members of both the offense and defense have departed. Most notable among the departures has been the retirement of future Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner, whose leadership qualities will be missed as much as, in not more than, his on the field talents. Before winning their first NFC West title in 2008 Arizona was a struggling franchise with its 8-8 record in 2006 their first non-losing record since 1998. The current coaching staff is an asset and head coach Ken Whisenhunt did not need much time in turning the franchise's fortunes around. The Cardinals play in a weak division although both San Francisco and Seattle appear improved. Of course the Cards lost twice to the 49ers last season while sweeping Seattle while going 10-6. To hit the UNDER in 2010 the Cards will have to go 7-9, a decline of 3 games from a season ago. The schedule has them facing the 4 AFC West teams in 2010 after going 2-2 vs the AFC South last season. 7 of their 16 games this season are against teams had losing records in 2009 so the potential for wins is there, even with either Derek Anderson or Matt Leinart at QB. The schedule dynamics keep this as a Weak rather than a Strong opinion as Whisenhunt and his staff are savvy and should be able to make mid season adjustments as needed. Still, the preference is for the UNDER although the most likely scenarios have Arizona going either 7-9 or 8-8 this season and with the plus vig on the UNDER, that's the preferred way to look although this is one of our weakest weak opinions. Opinion Date -- September 2, 2010. -- WINNER


ATLANTA FALCONS -- OVER 9 1/2 (Priced at - 120 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The Falcons' Total was adjusted upwards from 9 within just the past few days as the Falcons have been the chic pick by many to supplant New Orleans as the team to beat in the NFC South. Indeed, Atlanta has a well balanced team that comes off the first back to back winning seasons in franchise history with plenty of upside. The defense needs to be shored up after posting some below average stats the past few seasons but the offense should be better than it's been the past few seasons as QB Matt Ryan continues to develop. Still, the enthusiasm is tempered somewhat by the fact that this franchise has not had a strong winning tradition and their wins did decline from 11 to 9 from 2008 to 2009. The upwards move from 9 to 9 1/2 wins also lessens the enthusiasm although the lower vig (was nearly - 150 at OVER 9) is some compensation for the half game move. Still, the optimistic call for 10 wins remains tepid with Atlanta now being a team that opponents no longer take likely. The forecast calls for 10-6 the most likely scenario, leaving little margin for error. Opinion Date -- September 6, 2010. -- WINNER


BUFFALO BILLS -- UNDER 5 1/2 (Priced at - 140 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Former Dallas Cowboys head coach Chan Gailey takes over this once formidable franchise but its been almost 20 years since the Bills made it to 4 straight Super Bowls. The time since has not been kind and Buffalo has not been to the Playoffs in more than a decade and only one winning season in the past decade and that was just 9-7 in 2007. Gailey is known as an offensive innovator but the inherited talent, especially at QB, is questionable. The talent at RB is there but the Bills are also thin at WR so opponents should be able to concentrate on stopping the run and forcing the Bills to pass. Buffalo could be one of the more extreme running teams this season. The defense is just ordinary. Rookie RB/KR C J Spiller will provide some thrills and will be a player to build around in coming seasons. The other 3 teams in the AFC East appear much stronger than in 2009 so Buffalo will be hard pressed to duplicate their 2-4 Divisional record of last season. This will be a season of transition under Gailey and we might see some progress over the second half of the season. A fairly tough opening schedule could set the tone for a losing season which ends with three straight games against AFC East Divisional foes. The heavy vig keeps this from being anything more than a Weak Opinion with my forecast calling for a 4-12 record in 2010. Opinion Date -- September 6, 2010. -- WINNER


MINNESOTA VIKINGS -- UNDER 9 1/2 (Priced at - 140 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Much of the fanfare surrounding the Vikings relates to QB Brett Favre and most observers tie the success of the Vikes, or lack thereof, to Favre being able to stay healthy for an entire season. But the facts are that the Vikings can win without Favre as they showed two seasons ago when they went 10-6 with RB Adrian Peterson being the focal point of the offense with Tarvaris Jackson at QB. The Vikes were winning on the strength of one of the league's top defenses, especially against the run. The defense has allowed less than 90 yards per game rushing for the last 4 seasons. The absence of Favre would again place greater emphasis on running the football but we can expect more balance than in 2009 even with Favre at full strength. Sure, there are concerns about the receiving corps but there is some depth at the position and an excellent TE (Visanthe Shiancoe). Still, the concern about Favre remains legitimate concern and the Vikes did sweep Green Bay last season. That cannot be expected to occur again in 2010. Overall the Vikes were 5-1 within the Division and both Chicago and Detroit are expected to be improved and any injury to Favre could have more of a negative impact than expected. This was perhaps the most difficult forecast of the 32 as there are many good point to be made in support of Minnesota winning at least the same 10 games they won in 2008. My most likely scenario calls for Minnesota to decline to 9-7 from 12-4 in 2009, though 10-6 would not be a surpirse, making this the weakest of the weak opinions. Opinion Date -- September 8, 2010. -- WINNER


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -- OVER 6 1/2 (Priced at -125 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- With a strong New England Patriots influence within this organization the expectations are that the Chiefs may be one of the most improved teams in the NFL. But it takes time for upgrades in coaching and management to take effect, just as it takes time for new personnel to be integrated into a new system. There is much more stability than at the start of last season and there are pieces in place that suggest the Chiefs could contend for a winning record. But a run at the Playoffs seems a season or two away. The offense should show decent balance with a strong running game enabling QB Matt Cassel to flourish under OC Charlie Weis, who seems more suited for the NFL than for the colleges. The Chiefs play in a weak Division although there are those who expect both Oakland and Denver to be improved. San Diego remains the team to beat and while the Chiefs could well finish second in the AFC West my projections have them maxing out at 8 wins with my most likely scenario being a 7 win season, which keeps this as nothing more than a Weak Opinion. 7-9 would be their best record since making the Playoffs in 2006, a season which was followed by 4-12, 2-14 and 4-12. Opinion Date -- September 10, 2010. -- WINNER

MIAMI DOLPHINS -- OVER 8 1/2 (Priced at -120 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- It's been quite a roller coaster ride for the Dolphins over the past few seasons, from 9-7 in 2005 to 6-10 in 2006 to that ugly 1-15 in 2007 which was followed by an 11-5 Division title in 2008 only to drop back to 7-9 last season. The talent is such that the Dolphins fit the profile of at least a 9 win team that should contend for the Playoffs. Miami has generally been one of the better organizations in the NFL over the years and even though Bill Parcells is lessening his duties with the Dolphins his influence will still be evident in many key decisions. The addition of WR Brandon Marshall is a huge upgrade to the offense while the defense has gotten a bit younger but still appears to be a strength. With Marshall and QB Henne the usually solid running game should be even more productive. The Dolphins are pretty much an average to slightly above average team which has them contending but probably falling a bit short of a Wild Card. My projections call for 9-7 to be the most likely outcome for Miami. Opinion Date -- September 10, 2010. -- LOSER


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -- OVER 10 1/2 (Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- San Diego remains the class of the AFC West in terms of talent but Divisional games only count for 6 of the 16 game schedule and the Chargers did win 5 of 6 such contests last season. So if they duplicate that effort in 2010 more than half of the needed wins to exceed 10 will have to come from non-Division games. San Diego went 13-3 in 2009 and that included a sweep of their 4 games against the NFC East. But the games were all close as the wins were by 1, 8, 3 and 3 points. Yet they might again go unbeaten in interconference play as they face the 4 teams from the NFC West in 2010. And in addition to games against New England and Cincinnati the Chargers also play the 4 teams from the AFC South. Despite some key offsesaon moves and current holdouts the Chargers remain a talented and deep team. The addition of rookie RB Ryan Mathews should enable the Chargers to again have a high powered offense and rank near the top of the league with Philip Rivers continuing to solidify himself as an elite QB. After starting 2-3 the 2009 Chargers won their final 11 regular season games before being eliminated in their first Playoff game largely due to kicking woes. The window may be closing on the Chargers chances to win the big prize but they are still the team to beat in the AFC West and are likely to again be looking at 11 or 12 wins in 2010 and perhaps a repeat of 13-3. Opinion Date -- September 11, 2010. -- LOSER


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -- UNDER 7 (Priced at - 145 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- A new era begins in Seattle as coach Pete Carroll moves back to the NFL after a hugely successful run at USC. He had a fairly decent record as an NFL coach with the Jets and Patriots before heading to college but he takes over a team in transition. Carroll has already made several controversial personnel decisions and starts the season relying on aging and injury prone QB Matt Hasselbeck. There is not much depth on the roster and Seattle could well be among the most active teams scouring the waiver wire during the 2010 season. The Seahawks enjoyed great success for much of the past decade, winning four straight NFC West title from 2004 through 2007. But the inevitable decline began with a drop to 4-12 in and injury plagued 2008 and little improvement was shown by going 5-11 in 2009. It will take time for Carroll to fully put his imprint on the Seahawks. They do play in a weak Division so there should be some wins both within and outside of the Division but best case scenario has Seattle finishing up exactly on the Total at 7-9. This is one of the weaker Weak Opinions and the heavy vig to go UNDER is yet an additional detriment to enthusiasm. Opinion Date -- September 11, 2010. -- PUSH