.
                           Open     Open     Open     Curr     Curr     Curr 
TEAM                       Wins     OVER     UNDR     Wins     OVER     UNDR 
-----------------------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
Arizona Cardinals          8 1/2    -110     -110     8 1/2    Even     -120 
Atlanta Falcons            8        -120     Even     8 1/2    Even     -120 
Baltimore Ravens           8 1/2    -170     +150     8 1/2    -160     +140 
Buffalo Bills              7 1/2    -160     +140     7 1/2    -135     +115 
Carolina Panthers          8 1/2    +110     -130     8 1/2    +105     -125 
Chicago Bears              8 1/2    -130     +110     8 1/2    -145     +125 
Cincinnati Bengals         6        -150     +130     6 1/2    -150     +130 
Cleveland Browns           7        +130     -150     6 1/2    -120     Even 
Dallas Cowboys             9        -110     -110     9        -130     +110 
Denver Broncos             7 1/2    +110     -130     7        +140     -160 
Detroit Lions              5        +110     -130     5        +140     -160 
Green Bay Packers          9        +110     -130     9        +130     -150 
Houston Texans             8        +110     -130     8 1/2    +115     -135 
Indianapolis Colts        10        -110     -110    10        Even     -120 
Jacksonville Jaguars       8        -110     -110     8        -135     +115 
Kansas City Chiefs         6        -130     +110     6        -120     Even 
Miami Dolphins             7        -110     -110     7        -110     -110 
Minnesota Vikings          9        -130     +110     9        -125     +105 
New England Patriots      11 1/2    -110     -110    11 1/2    -120     Even 
New Orleans Saints         8 1/2    -150     +130     8 1/2    -165     +145 
N Y Giants                10        Even     -120    10        +130     -150 
N Y Jets                   7        -130     +110     7        -150     +130 
Oakland Raiders            5 1/2    -150     +130     5 1/2    -150     +130 
Philadelphia Eagles        9 1/2    -160     +140     9 1/2    -150     +130 
Pittsburgh Steelers       10 1/2    Even     -120    10 1/2    -120     Even 
St Louis Rams              5 1/2    -160     +140     5 1/2    -165     +145 
San Diego Chargers         9 1/2    -120     Even     9 1/2    -170     +150 
San Francisco 49ers        7        -145     +125     7        -155     +135 
Seattle Seahawks           7 1/2    -145     +125     7 1/2    -150     +130 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers       6 1/2    -150     +130     6 1/2    +115     -135 
Tennessee Titans           9        -140     +120     9        -130     +110 
Washington Redskins        8        +110     -130     8        -110     -110 

In approaching an analysis of playing individual teams to go Over or Under their respective win totals, several global perspectives need to be looked at first.

One key thing to keep in mind is that the public is usually geared to thinking in the positive -- i.e. that things will happen rather than that they won't. In other words, much as the public tends to prefer Favorites over Underdogs in betting the pointspread, and tends to prefer betting Over the Total Points as opposed to Under the Total Points in individual games, the Team Over/Under wins are geared more to betting the Over rather than the Under.

Yet in recent years the public -- especially the so-called "Wise Guys" part of the public -- has become more enlightened about sports betting in general, and Over/Under Season Wins in particular.

Interestingly, last season, in 2008, if you totalled up the number of wins for all 32 NFL teams you found that the sum was 252.5. In prior seasons it was not unusual for the "projected" wins to total in the mid to upper 260's. A look at the "vig" attached to the Overs and Unders shows that there has been a shift in that rather than having the public play OVER inflated Win Totals, the public must now pay an unusually high "vig" to play OVER more realistic (and slightly lower) Win Totals. More about this shortly as this has become a major change/development.

For 2009 the total wins sums to 256 1/2 for the Opening numbers and 257 for the current numbers (Atlanta, Cincinnati and Houston have eached been moved up half a win from the Open to the Current while both Cleveland and Denver have been dropped half a win).

Barring any games that end in ties, there can only be 256 wins accumulated by the league as a whole, 256 being the total number of regular season games to be played. Thus there wa an inherent bias towards the UNDER in 2008 which means that on a global basis there was slight value in betting the OVER (although, as last season's Total of 252.5 shows, any bias/value has been virtually eliminated).

In 2009 that bias has been further narrowed/eliminated with the Total Wins summing to 256 1/2 and 257 as noted above.

Going even further, if one were to bet every team to go Over their total, because of the half wins for several of the teams it would take 280 wins overall to cash each ticket, or a league record for 256 games of 280-232, a spread of 48 games. If you were to bet every team OVER the total and those teams on whole numbers landed on those numbers you are still looking at a total number of games of 266 to WIN or PUSH betting every team to go OVER their Total, a variance of 20 games (266-246) from the 256 being playedl (this would result in 17 wins and 15 pushes).

Obviously this is impossible but compare this scenario to betting Under for all teams in which case the total number of wins needed to cash every ticket drops to 234, or an overall record of 234-278, aspread of 44 games. To WIN or PUSH every team going UNDER it Total would require a total of 248 wins, a variance of 16 games (248-264) from the total number of 256 games to be played (this would result in the same 19 wins and 13 pushes, obviously, since only the 19 teams with "half games" would not result in those Pushes).

Numerically there is essentially no global bias or value in 2009 with the Total Wins projected at almost exactly 256. One way to get an overview of what the linesmaker expects is to recast the above table in the form of projected standings, division by division. By doing this exercise we get the following projections.

.
   AFC EAST                           NFC EAST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   New England     11.5 -  4.5        N Y Giants      10.0 -  6.0        
   Buffalo          7.5 -  8.5        Philadelphia     9.5 -  6.5        
   Miami            7.0 -  9.0        Dallas           9.0 -  7.0        
   N Y Jets         7.0 -  9.0        Washington       8.0 -  8.0        


   AFC NORTH                          NFC NORTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Pittsburgh      10.5 -  5.5        Green Bay        9.0 -  7.0        
   Baltimore        8.5 -  7.5        Minnesota        9.0 -  7.0        
   Cleveland        6.5 -  9.5        Chicago          8.5 -  7.5        
   Cincinnati       6.5 -  9.5        Detroit          5.0 - 11.0        


   AFC SOUTH                          NFC SOUTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Indianapolis    10.0 -  6.0        Atlanta          8.5 -  7.5        
   Tennessee        9.0 -  7.0        Carolina         8.5 -  7.5        
   Houston          8.5 -  7.5        New Orleans      8.5 -  7.5        
   Jacksonville     8.0 -  8.0        Tampa Bay        6.5 -  9.5        


   AFC WEST                           NFC WEST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   San Diego        9.5 -  6.5        Arizona          8.5 -  7.5        
   Denver           7.0 -  9.0        Seattle          7.5 -  8.5        
   Kansas City      6.0 - 10.0        San Francisco    7.0 -  9.0        
   Oakland          5.5 - 10.5        St Louis         5.5 - 10.5        

By looking at the projected standings we can often spot teams that look out of place. Such teams are not necessarily those that are predicted to win divisions but rather may be teams projected to finish second or teams projected to finish last.

Note that with divisional realignment in 2002, there are now eight divisions, each with exactly four teams. This represents a dramatic change from the prior alignment which featured five divisions of five teams each and one division of six teams.

Major Change in Bookmaker Approach to NFL Over/Under Season Win Totals
===========================================================
In seasons past there was a built in bias towards playing teams UNDER their season win totals as the sum of all team's projected wins would be significantly greater than the total number of games that would be played during an NFL season. For example, 32 teams playing a 16 game schedule results in a total of 256 regular season games. Often the total projected wins for the 32 teams would sum to the mid to upper 260's. In fact, between 2002 (the first season of 32 teams with the addition of the Houston Texans) through 2006 the sum of Projected Total Wins has been between 261 and 267. In 2007 we saw the sum drop to 257 1/2, just a game and a half more than the number of games to be played, but still with the slightest of edges towards playing the UNDER. But in 2008 the sum was just 252 1/2 -- actually creating an edge to the OVER. And in 2009 the sum is virtually right on the 256 games that will be played this season.

In 2008 this shift towards lower Projected Total Wins continued to a point where there was a numerical edge in playing the OVER. Summing the 32 Projected Win Totals yields a result of just 252 total wins -- 4 fewer than the number of games to be played. But rather than blindly conclued that there was now an edge in playing the OVER, closer inspection showed that any such edge was all but wiped out by the "vig" attached to playing the OVER.

Such is again the case for 2009.

A look at the first chart above shows that for 23 of the 32 teams bettors must lay a vig to play the OVER (using the Opening Lines). For only 7 teams is there a "plus" price on the OVER with 2 teams being priced at "Even Money" for the OVER. Compare that to the UNDER and we see that there are only 15 teams that require the bettor to lay a vig to play the UNDER while the other 17 teams are priced at either Even Money (2 teams) or a plus price (15 teams) on the UNDER.

Two months into the wagering (early July) there were still just 7 teams that carried a "plus" price on the OVER while the other 25 teams carried a "minus" vig. For the UNDER there were 11 teams with a "minus" vig while the remaining 21 teams were either at a "plus" vig (17 teams) or at Even Money (4 teams). A number of the moves were toward "pick ems" where both the OVER and the UNDER had "minus" vigs such as each being - 110 in a true "pick em" wager.

A look at the past 11 seasons of NFL Season Total Overs/Unders (347 team seasons) there have been 165 OVERs, 171 UNDERs and 11 PUSHes -- nearly a 50/50 split that has averaged just 1/2 more UNDER than OVER per season for 11 seasons. As we all know, the closer results come to being 50/50, the better the Sports Books fare.

Thus in 2009 were you to play EVERY team to go OVER, using $100 as a standard unit of play (risking more than $100 to win $100 when laying vig or laying $100 to win $100 or more when playing even money or 'plus' teams) -- using the Current Win Totals and Vigs -- you would be risking a total of $4,065 to win $3,375 (by wagering $3,065 to win $2,200 on the 22 teams with minus vig and $1,000 to win $1,175 on the 10 teams with plus vig or at even money).

To play Every team to stay UNDER you would be risking a total of $3,595 to win $3,645 (by wagering $1,595 to win $ 1,200 on the 12 teams with minus vig and $2,000 to win $ 2,445 on the 20 teams with plus or even money vig).

So what we are seeing is a major shift in setting season Total Wins. Recognizing that the public generally prefers to bet the OVER, and recognizing that over the long run there will be nearly the same number of teams going OVER their Total Wins as will be going UNDER, by attaching more of a "minus" vig to playing the OVER results in a greater bottom line. What the Books may give up in terms of perhaps one additional OVER winner they will more than make up for in the added "net" vig they will collect on the OVER losers.

Thus, from a "vig" standpoint it has become even more attractive to seek out UNDERs as we are more likely to get them at Even Money or better, even though we may be playing UNDER a number that could be a half game lower than in the past (no way of knowing this, of course, as every season sets up uniquely, but the half game is a reasonable estimate based on the decline in the overall total of projected wins). At the same time, it becomes imperative to proceed cautiously when considering an OVER play as we must now pay a higher price than in the past to back the OVER, even though we are playing OVER a number that is roughly a half game lower than it might have been in the past (for the same reason as just mentioned for the UNDERs).

Therefore, we have seen a tradeoff involving the number of projected wins and the vigorish attached.

The approach we outline and discuss below regarding Playoff teams, combined with the detailed history we will provide, is still a valid way of looking for teams to play OVER their Totals while at the same time our similarly outlined approach to playing UNDERs offers greater returns due to the increased "plus" vigs.

In the past, our general approach was twofold -- to look for teams that figure to struggle and thus teams to be played Under the total, taking advantage of the built in value in the Under (now because of the attached vigorish as opposed to the previously discussed win totals). But there is also a strategy geared towards finding teams that may be played Over the total. This strategy involves looking for teams that one expects will make the Playoffs and has a total wins listed of 9 games or less.

In most seasons it will take at least 10 wins to qualify for a Wild Card. In fact, since the NFL adopted its present Playoff format of 12 teams (6 division winners and 6 Wild Cards beginning in 1990, since modified in 2002 with Realignment to 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Card teams but still producing 12 Playoff teams each season) there have been 228 teams to make the Playoffs in those 19 seasons. Of those 216 teams, 182 of them had at least 10 wins and another 38 teams had exactly 9 wins. Only 8 teams made the Playoffs with 8-8 records (including a Division winner, San Diego, in 2008). Looked at another way, 79.8% of all Playoff teams won at least 10 games and 96.5% of all Playoff teams won at least 9 games. Only 3.5% of all Playoff teams over the past 19 seasons made the Playoffs with just 8 wins.

Thus in looking to play teams Over their posted wins total the best strategy is to look for team with a good chance of making the playoffs and whose win totals are 9 or less. Generally these teams will have win totals between 7 and 9. Remember that 9 wins for a Playoff team should at least get you a 'push' on the Over and you have roughly a 4 in 5 chance of cashing your ticket should your team make the Playoffs since such teams wins at least 10 games a shade under 80% of the time.

In looking at teams you may expect to make the Playoffs use history as a guide. Since the NFL expanded to include 12 teams in the Playoffs in 1990 only an average of 6.2 teams make it to the Playoffs the following a Playoff appearance. That is, of the 12 Playoff teams from 2008 (Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina, Indianapolis, Miami, Minnesota, the New York Giants, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Tennessee) only 6 or 7 of them can be expected to again make the Playoffs again in 2009. Only once, in 1995, did as many as 8 of 12 Playoff teams make the Playoffs again the following season and only in 2003 did as few as 4 teams repeat (in 1999, 2005, 2006 and 2008 just 5 teams repeated from the previous season). Thus, 6 or 7 teams from 2008 can be expected to make the Playoffs in 2009. (Note that 5 Playoff teams from 2007 again made the Playoffs last season, in 2008).

Focus your OVER plays on those teams, especially the 5 or 6 teams you think may make the Playoffs this season after having missed out last season. Because of this recent high degree of parity -- in which 19 of the NFL's 32 teams have made the Playoffs over the past 2 seasons -- the OVER becomes more of a value if you are able to identify those teams that did not make the Playoffs a year ago but may have been in the Playoffs 2 or 3 seasons ago and seem to be improved entering this season.

Of the 13 teams that did not make the Playoffs in 2007 or 2008, 4 teams (Chicago, Kansas City, New Orleans, N Y Jets) made them in 2006 and 2 teams (Cincinnati, Denver) last made the Playoffs in 2005 meaning that 25 of the NFL's 32 teams, 78%, have made the Playoffs at least once in the past 4 seasons. Only 7 teams (Buffalo - 1999, Cleveland - 2002, Detroit - 1999, Houston -- never, Oakland -- 2002, St Louis -- 2004, San Francisco -- 2002) have not made the Playoffs in any of the last 4 seasons.

It is easier to decide upon teams to play Under the total for several reasons, aside from noting that there is built in value in playing the Under. Most developments during the season tend to be negative, generally in the form of extended or season-ending injuries. In looking for teams to play Under it is often a good strategy to look for teams that don't have much depth at several positions, especially at QB and other skill positions. A change in coaching or replacing of key players from the prior season can often lead to a slow start out of the gate.

Also let's look at the opposite of the statistics that define likely Playoff teams. Between 1990 and 2008 there have been 577 individual team seasons. 130 of those teams, or 22.5%, have won 5 or fewer games in a season. 84 of those 130 teams (14.6% of the overall 577 total) have won just 4 or fewer games. Usually, the LOWEST Over/Under Season Win Total will be 5 games. Using the historical percentage of 22.5% it is projected that 7 teams will win 5 or fewer games in 2009. Note that for 2009 NO TEAM is projected to win fewer than 5 games and only Detroit is projected to win exactly 5 games. Two other teams -- Oakland and St Louis -- are projected to win 5 1/2 with Kansas City next at 6 games!

In each season since 1990 there were at least 2 teams that won 4 or fewer games and at least 4 teams that won 5 or less. Thus we can expect that 3 or 4 teams will win 4 or fewer games in 2009 and that another 2 or 3 teams will win exactly 5 games. Last season saw 6 teams win 4 or fewer games and 2 more win exactly 5 games.

The most likely prospects to win 5 or fewer games would generally be teams projected at 7 wins or less.

In 2008 there were 10 teams that won at least 10 games and 8 teams that won 5 or less. The New England Patriots became just the sixth teams since to win at least 10 games and not make the Playoffs. In fact, the Patriots were 11-5 but lost the AFC East title to Miami, also 11-5, on tie breakers. Unfortunately for the Pats Indianapolis earned the first AFC Wild Card with a 12-4 record and theBaltimore, also 11-5 like the Patriots, earned the second Wild Card on tie breakers. In 2007 there were 8 teams with 5 or fewer wins and 10 teams with 10 or more wins. In 2007 10-6 Cleveland became the fifth team since 1990 to win 10 games and not make the Playoffs. The previous 4 such teams also won exactly 10 games -- San Francisco and Philadelphia in 1991, Miami in 2003, Kansas City in 2005).

Obviously 2002's realignment meant that a different type of analysis was needed to project how a team will do in total wins over the course of a season and what number of wins will be needed to make the Playoffs. It will be several seasons before even tentative conclusions may be drawn. Realignment has radically altered scheduling dynamics and how teams will qualify for the Playoffs. For example, in the past every team played at least half of their games against Division rivals. Now a team plays only six of their 16 games against Division foes so by definition Divisional games are not as important as they had been in the past.

Also, the Playoff field is now comprised of 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Cards instead of 6 and 6. Thus we might see teams in a relatively weak Division reach the Playoffs by winning the Division with a record of just 8-8. San Diego did exactly that in 2008. It will also be possible that a team could finish second in a division with a 10-6 or 11-5 record but not make the Playoffs, such as was the case with New England, also in 2008. Remember, there are now FOUR second place teams in each conference, not just three. In the past it was possible for the top two finishers in EACH Division to make the Playoffs. Such will no longer be the case. In 2002, for example, the New York Jets made the Playoffs with just a 9-7 record by virtue of being the AFC East champions. However, no team with more than 9 wins missed the Playoffs in 2002. In 2003 only one 10 win team -- Miami -- failed to make the Playoffs and no team with 9 or fewer wins made the Playoffs. The same was true in 2005 when Kansas City's 10 wins did not get them into the Playoffs but also no team with 9 or fewer wins made the field either. In 2006 the New York Giants made the Playoffs with just 8 wins. In 2007 Cleveland missed the Playoffs despite 10 wins but no 9 win team failed to make the Playoffs. And in 2008 11-5 New England missed the Playoffs while 8-8 San Diego made them. The 2008 New York Jets also missed the Playoffs despite their 9-7 record being better than that of the Chargers.

In looking at our 2009 Recommendations and Opinions note that they are presented in the chronological order in which we have reviewed the teams. Unless otherwise indicated, all Recommendations are weighted and rated equally at a single unit. In certain cases where the Over or Under we prefer is so highly priced that we cannot in good conscience recommend a straight play equal to one unit we will likely classify that play as either a Strong or Weak Opinion, worth at most a half unit play. Generally these will be teams where the Over/Under we prefer is priced at - 140 or higher.

Also, please note that there may be hedging opportunities late in the season if some of our Recommendations/Opinions are to be decided in the final week or two.

In general, in the past, my analysis begins with a look at those teams I clearly expect to make the Playoffs.

In 2003 there were only two teams (Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) whose projected Total Wins were greater than 9 1/2. In 2004 there were 7 teams with projected wins of at least 10. For 2005 there were 5 teams with projected win totals of 10 or higher. In 2006 there were 6 such teams. In 2007 there were just 4 teams with projected win totals of 10 or higher (Chicago, Indianapolis, New England and San Diego). Interestingly, for 2008, there were 5 teams projected to win 10 or more games, no teams projected at 9 1/2 wins and just 1 team at 9 wins. That means there were to be a minimum of at least 6 teams that would make the Playoffs who were projected to win fewer than 9 games! The ONLY NFC team with a projected win total of more than 8 1/2 was Dallas. That means the the Division winners of the NFC North, South and West were all projected to win fewer than 9 games.

In 2009 only 4 teams carry double digit win projections -- New England (11 1/2), Pittsburgh (10 1/2), Indianapolis (10) and the New York Giants (10). 2 other teams have projections of 9 1/2 wins (Philadelphia and San Diego) and 4 more teams are projected to win 9 games (Dallas, Green Bay, Minnesota and Tennessee). The top teams in the NFC South and NFC West carry projections of just 8 1/2 wins. Note that in 2008 Arizona won the NFC West with a 9-7 mark and 2 teams in the NFC South each topped the 8 1/2 games projected for that Division's winner as Carolina went 12-4 and Atlanta finished 11-5.

Since Divisional Reallignment occurred beginning in 2002 -- 8 Divisions of 4 teams each -- ONLY ONCE (San Diego in 2008) has there been a Division winner with fewer than 9 wins -- Of the 56 Division winners between 2002 and 2008, there have also been just 5 Division winners to finish 9-7 (the Jets in 2002, Seattle in both 2004 and 2006, Tampa Bay in 2007 and Arizona in 2008). The other 51 Division winners have won AT LEAST 10 Games!

As stated above, there is nearly an 80% chance that a Playoff team will have won at least 10 games. Also remember that history tells us that 5 or 6 teams that DID NOT make the Playoffs last season WILL make the Playoffs this season

And, in looking towards UNDERs, keep in mind that historically about 7 teams will finish the season with 5 or fewer wins. Only 1 team, Detroit (5), is projected to win 5 or fewer games in 2009.

Here, then, are the Recommendations and Opinions for the 2009 NFL season.

ST LOUIS RAMS -- UNDER 5 1/2 -- Priced at + 125 at Las Vegas Hilton -- The Rams continue to be a poorly managed franchise now a decade removed from their Super Bowl. They enter 2009 with a rookie head coach (Stee Spagnuolo) and durability questions surrounding their two franchise players, QB Marc Bulger and RB Steven Jackson. The offense sputtered last season and has averaged under 300 yards per game in each of the past 2 seasons. The defense has allowed at least 4.7 yards per rush in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Over the last 4 seasons the Rams are just 19-45 with their best mark just 8-8 in 2006. It's been downhill the past 2 seasons with their 3-13 in 2007 and 2-14 last season. There's little to suggest much of an improvement this season as their interleague schedule is no bargain. After facing the AFC East last season the Rams face the 4 AFC South teams in 2009. Although the Rams closed 2008 with close losses of 3, 1 and 4 points they suffered 9 losses by 17 points or more, including 4 within the Division. That's a lot of ground to make up in just one season. The "+" price makes the UNDER an attractive play. RECOMMENDATION DATE - July 24, 2009. -- WINNER


MINNESOTA VIKINGS -- OVER 9 -- Priced at - 125 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Wanted to finalize this prop BEFORE the Brett Favre situation gets resolved as I've been looking at the Vikes as a dark horse Super Bowl contender even with Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels at QB. The Vikings have an outstanding defense that should be even better in 2009 and a dominant running game with RB Adrian Peterson leading the way. We've seen less than elite QBs lead teams to titles over the years so even without Favre the Vikes are a legit threat. The defense has allowed 76, 74 and 62 yards per game on the ground the past 3 seasons while rushing on offense for 165 and 146 ypg the past 2 seasons. This team is every bit as good (and likely better) than the team that went 10-6 last season, even in Favre stays retired. But should Favre sign with the Vikes this total may well be bumped up a half game. Or the vig on the Over may rise. Or both. At the current price of - 125 asking the Vikes to win at least 10 games is not asking alot. Especially since teams with outstanding defenses are better able to overcome injuries than teams based more upon a potent offense. My forecast calls for the Vinkings -- with out without Favre -- to at least match their 10 wins of a season ago. RECOMMENDATION DATE -- July 25, 2009. -- WINNER


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -- OVER 10 -- Priced at Even Money at Las Vegas Hilton -- The Colts have an amazing streak of 6 straight seasons of 12 wins or more between 2003 and 2008 (and they were 10-6 in 2002) with 7 straight Playoff appearances and a Super Bowl title. Of course that astounding success came under the stewardship of former head coach Tony Dungy who retired after last season. Long time assistant Jim Caldwell -- who came over with Dungy from Tampa Bay in 2002 -- takes over in what should be a fairly seamless transition. Under Dungy the Colts exceeded their projected season win total in all 7 seasons! It remains to be seen if Caldwell can have the same kind of success as Dungy although a drop off can be expected. But that drop off may not be immediate as the nucleus of the talented Colts teams is still pretty much intact along the line of scrimmage and especially at QB where Peyton Manning begins the season healthy, unlike a season ago. After a pair of surgical procedures limited Mannings' effectiveness at the start of the 2008 season, the Colts started 3-4 but then ran off 9 straight wins to end the regular season and extend the streak of 12 win seasons. The Colts need only to go 11-5 to cash the OVER and at Even Money it would still take a 9-7 record to beat us. Given the stability of the organization and the smooth nature of the coaching change there is every reason to believe the Colts are again a Playoff team and should achieve double digit wins. And with a healthy Manning under center a seventh straight 12 win season is not out of the question. We'll settle for 11. RECOMMENDATION DATE -- August 2, 2009. -- WINNER


ARIZONA CARDINALS -- UNDER 8 1/2 -- Priced at -120 at Las Vegas Hilton -- There's no denying that the Cardinals deserved their spot in the Super Bowl last season as a result of saving their best for last. They played tremendous football in getting past Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia in the Playoffs and were but minutes away from winning SB XLIII before the defense surrendured the game winning TD to Pittsburgh. But let's not overlook the fact that Arizona, for the most part, was a very average team and was just 9-7 during the regular season. They played in the very weak NFC West where they went 6-0 against Division rivals St Louis (2-14), Seattle (4-12) and San Francisco (7-9). Although St Louis is likely to struggle again in 2009 both Seattle and San Francisco are expected to be improved. Against the rest of the NFL the Cards were just 3-7 and 4 of the losses were by at least 21 points. Add in the fact that historically Super Bowl losers generally do not make the Playoffs the following season and a solid case can be made for Arizona to return their non-winning ways. Their 9-7 record in 2008 was their first winning record in a decade and their only other non-losing record came a season earlier when they were 8-8 in 2007. Expect the Super Bowl letdown to apply here as the Cardinals will now be the hunted rather than the hunter and their consistent lack of a running game on offense and a suspect defense conspire to deny the Cards from repeating their Playoff appearance of a season ago. RECOMMENDATION DATE -- August 4, 2009. -- LOSER


CLEVELAND BROWNS -- UNDER 6 1/2 -- Priced at - 130 at Las Vegas Hilton -- For a second straight season the schedule maker did the Browns no favors as they open with 4 road games in their first 6 contests. They open the season hosting powerful Minnesota and in game 7 they host Green Bay before heading back on the road to Chicago. In December they host San Diego and Pittsburgh in back to back weeks. With Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson they have a QB controversy that may exist all season if the Browns aren't winning and one of the two isn't traded. The loss of TE Kellen Winslow Jr will be felt and WR Braylon Edwards has yet to prove to be a reliable pass catcher. The defense needs a major upgrade, especially their rush defense which has allowed 4.4, 4.5 and 4.5 yards per rush the past 3 seasons. New coach Eric Mangini had modest success with the Jets, posting winning records in 2 of his 3 seasons. But he arguably had more to work with in New York and the rebuilding task he faces here is great. Yes, the Browns did go 10-6 just two seasons ago -- which fueled high expectations for last season. But the Browns have won 6 or fewer games in 5 of the last 6 seasons. Having to play Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice plus the NFC North and San Diego makes for a tough schedule, especially the way the games are sequenced. They do end the season with 3 straight games against teams that had losing records in 2008 but by then the Browns may have already reached double digit losses. The most optimistic scenario for Cleveland would have them finishing 6-10 which still puts them UNDER the line of 6 1/2. RECOMMENDATION DATE -- August 31, 2009. -- WINNER


MIAMI DOLPHINS -- OVER 7 -- Priced at - 105 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Miami had one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history last season going from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 and the AFC East title in 2008. The Dolphins were not nearly as bad in 2007 as that 1-15 might suggest, nor were they as good as last season's 11-5 record. But they are closer to 11-5 than 1-15 and although they are not likely to repeat their Division title in 2009 the Fish could contend for a Wild Card. They strengthened their organization following the 2007 season, especially with the hiring of Bill Parcells to oversee football operations. They have a fundmentally sound, well coached defense and QB Chad Pennington is heady and able to manage a game well. Miami appears to be second best in the AFC East behind New England but ahead of both the Jets and Bills. Because of their sound defense and competent QB play (and running game) Miami is not prone to being blown out by most teams and thus should be in almost every game in the fourth quarter. While a repeat of last season's Playoff appearance is not likely, the Dolphins are still a good enough team to fashion a winning record of 9-7 or at worst finish 8-8. RECOMMENDATION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- PUSH


DALLAS COWBOYS -- OVER 9 -- Priced at - 120 at Las Vegas Hilton -- For the first time in years the Cowboys endured a relatively uneventful off season and training camp. They enter 2009 not being the favorites to win the NFC East let alone the NFC conference itself. Gone are the distractions or WR Terrell Owens. QB Tony Romo still has some critics but also has the full endorsement and confidence of ownership and the coaching staff. There are some developing receivers to complement outstanding TE Witten and there are a bevy of running backs to give the Cowboys one of the best balanced offenses in the league. The defense also appears solid. Dallas has won 9 or more regular season games in each of the past 4 seasons and that should continue in 2009. Without the burdens, pressures and distractions of seasons past don't be surprised if the Cowboys finally live up to their vast potential and become a serious contender for the Super Bowl. RECOMMENDATION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER

Often, Strong Opinions differ from both Recommendations and Weak Opinions in the following way. In making a Recommendation both the Total Number of Wins and the +/- Price must be favorable, especially since there is a several month wait before the results are known. As such it may be impractical or uncomfortable in making a Recommendation on a team to go Over or Under a specified number -- even though the assigned probabilities may be great -- if to do so means laying a price say, in excess of minus 130. Thus a Strong Opinion may often be looked at a play that would have been looked at as a Recommended Play but for the 'vig' attached whereas a Weak Opinion is one that is classified as such more likely because the probabilites assigned to the Over/Under are such that the likelihood of a winning result is considerably less than that of a Recommendation.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -- OVER 9 1/2 -- Priced at - 150 at LasVegas Hilton -- In Coach Andy Reid's 10 seasons at Philadelphia the Eagles have exceeded their season wins total 7 times, fallen short just twice, and -- in his first season of 1999, pushed. Both of the UNDERs came when QB Donovan McNabb was injured for part of the season. In 2005 the Eagles were projected to win 11 games bu went just 6-10 as McNabb missed 7 games. In 2207 the Eagles were projected to win 9 games and they finished 8-8 as McNabb missed two games. This is a very talented team that has been solid on both sides of the ball and is also well balanced in terms of run versus pass. True, the NFC East is very competitive. But the Eagles do get to face the weak AFC West this season in interleague play. They will miss the defensive leadership of the departed Brian Dawkins as well as the sideline coaching of the late Jim Johnson (who passed away earlier today). But the aggressive philosophy installed by Johnson in his decade with the Eagles will be continued and the Eagles should make the Playoffs once again. The high vig attached to the OVER keeps this as an Opinion rather than a Recommendation for a team that had won double digit games 6 times in 7 seasons between 2000 and 2006 and has that same QB at the controls with a better passing game than in recent seasons. OPINION DATE -- July 28, 2009 -- WINNER


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -- OVER 7 1/2 -- Priced at - 150 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Seattle had made the Playoffs 5 straight seasons between 2003 and 2007 before early season injuries to QB Matt Hasselbeck and their top receivers doomed the Seahawks to a dismal 4-12 season in coach Mike Holmgren's final season as coach. Hasselbeck missed 9 games in 2008 and that -- combined with Holmgren's having announced in advance of the season that 2008 would be his last -- took the spark out of this team that got off to a rough start and basically played out the string from mid season on out. Jim Mora Jr takes over as head coach after having served two season's as Holmgren's top lieutenant and head coach in waiting. But prior to last season the 'Hawks had won 9 or more games in 5 straight seasons and in 7 of the previous 10. There is a solid nucleus of talent on this team and the NFC West is still relatively weak -- recall that Arizona ended Seattle's streak of 4 straight Division Titles with just a 9-7 record before heating up in the Playoffs. Mora had moderate success in his first head coaching stint in Atlanta, winning the NFC South in his first season with an 11-5 record before following that up with 8-8 in 2005 and 7-9 in 2006. Again, the high vig keeps this as an Opinion rather than a Recommendation but the pedigree of the Seahawks for most of this decade and the unusual circumstances surrounding last season suggest the Seahawks bounce back an it takes just a .500 record for the OVER to cash. OPINION DATE -- July 28, 2009. -- LOSER


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -- OVER 9 1/2 -- Priced at-170 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Many keen observers of the NFL believe the Chargers to be the overall most talented team in the league and that they've been such for several seasons. Their 8-8 record in 2008 shows just how much this talented group underachieved. The 8-8 was good enough to win a fourth straight AFC West title, via the tiebreakers, only because of Denver's monumental collapse down the stretch. There really are few if any excuses for the Chargers' mediocre season as both starting QB Philip Rivers and All Pro RB LaDanian Tomlinson played all 16 games. True, the defense was without some key players, notably Shawne Merriman for much of the season. The leadership and motivational abilities of head coach Norv Turner continually are called into question. Outstanding as an offensive coordinatior, Turner has been anything but as a head coach ((50-60-1 in Washington, 9-23 in Oakland). In only his third season as Charger boss he is the most tenured coach in the AFC West as both Denver and Kansas City have new coaches to start the season and Oakland's new coach took over in the middle of last season. The Chargers can't blame their 8-8 record on Divisional play as they were 5-1 against Division foes last season (including a pair of 1 point wins over lowly KC). Still, of their 8 losses 2 were by a single point, another came by 2 points and a fourth was by a FG. Three other losses were by 5, 6 and 7 points with their largest margin of defeat being 9 points at Buffalo. So the 8-8 record was not that far from being 12-4 or better. Clearly the talent is there and the Chargers should reach the Playoffs with double digit wins. The high vig of -170 keeps this from being a full Recommendation but if there is an uptick to a season total of 10 wins the OVER would be a Recommendation at a vig of - 120 or less. OPINION DATE -- August 2, 2009 -- WINNER


CINCINNATI BENGALS -- OVER 7 -- Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Marvin Lewis arrived amid much fanfare in 2003 to take over a franchise that had been among the losingest of franchises in all of pro sports. He had established his reputation as an outstanding defensive coordinator and was now given the chance to run the whole show. And in his 6 seasons as head coach of the Bengals he has managed to transform the team from pathetic to basically average. He took over a team that had gone 19-61 the previous 5 seasons including 2-14 in 2002. The improvement was immedate as the Bengals went 8-8 in each of Lewis' first two seeasons before establishing the high water mark of his tenure, going 11-5 in 2005. This was followed by seasons of 8-8 and 7-9 maing his first 5 seasons record a respectable 42-38. Last season was a disaster as franchise QB Carson Palmer was injured early in the season and missed 12 games as Cincy fell to 4-11-1 behind inexperienced QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. The offense was woeful, averaging a meager 246 yards per game, a decrease of 102 ypg from 2007. The defense actually was decent, allowing an average of 326 ypg (NFL average was 327) and allowed 22.8 points per game (league average was 22.0). The Bengals ended the season with momentum. At 1-11-1 they could have just quit but the won their final 3 games -- all low scoring games against non-Playoff teams (20-13 over Washington, 14-0 at Cleveland and 16-6 over Kansas City). So there were some positives taken into the offseason. Despite the usual turnover in personnel QB Palmer returns healthy and there is every reason to believe a return to respectability -- an 8-8 season -- is well within reach. My forecast calls for a greater likelihood of going 8-8 or better than in going 6-10 or worse. And at 7-9 we get a PUSH. Lewis seems to be in control as the end of last season showed and there is more reason for optimism than pessimism as the 2009 season unfolds. OPINION DATE -- August 4, 2009. -- WINNER


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -- UNDER 6 -- Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Todd Haley is in and Herman Edwards is out as coach of the Chiefs after seasons of 4-12 in 2007 and 2-14 in 2008. The Chiefs are a young team with potential but that potential may be a season or too away from possible Playoff contention. KC acquired QB Matt Cassel from New England after Cassel made a name for himself taking over for the injured Tom Brady and leading the Patriots to an 11-5 record. It will take some time for the new coach and QB combination to be on the same page. The defense is also a major concern after allowing an average of 393 yards per game last season, an increase of 74 ypg over 2007. The schedule is tough outside of the AFC West as the Chiefs figure to be huge underdogs against the 4 NFC East teams they face in addition to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Those 4 games against the NFC East come early in the season and are in 4 consecutive weeks (3 through 6) which means they draw those tough foes while the team is still developing. The team is not that far removed from winning seasons, having gone 10-6 in 2005 and 9-7 in 2006. Things probably bottomed out last season but there's still a lot of ground to climb to beat the Total with a 7-9 record. The Chiefs appear to be one of the half dozen or so teams that likely win 5 or fewer games although the Chiefs at the end of 2009 should be much better than the Chiefs in September and from a pointspread perspective KC may be a great value over the second half of the season. OPINION DATE -- August 13, 2009. -- WINNER


GREEN BAY PACKERS -- OVER 9 -- Priced at Even at Las Vegas Hilton -- The circus that surrounded the Packers last off season with the Brett Favre situation was absent this off season and Aaron Rodgers enters his second full season as Packer starting QB with no questions as to his role. That along with the development he showed during the course of last season augers well for 2009. The Packers were a disappointing 6-10 last season but had the decisions in their games decided by 3 points or loss been reversed, the Pack would have just as easily been 11-5. They were 13-3 in Favre's last season in 2007 when Green Bay reached the NFC Title game. Much of that team remains and the defense should be improved after slipping last season, especially against the run. The schedule rates as one of the league's easiest as they replace 4 games against the AFC South (whose teams were a combined 38-26) with games against the AFC North (whose teams were 31-32-1). The stability of the off season, the maturity of Rodgers and the number of competitive games that just went the wrong way in 2008 suggest that the Packers are much closer to the 13-3 team in 2007 than the 6-10 team of last season. There are some 8 1/2's out there (vig around minus 130) and at 8 1/2 this would have been a full Recommendation as the Packers should content for at least a Wild Card which means 9-7 and 10-6 are likely scenarios at a minimum. OPINION DATE -- August 18, 2009. -- WINNER


HOUSTON TEXANS -- OVER 8 1/2 -- Priced at + 110 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Houston is an up and coming team with balance on both sides of the football and a solid blend of youth and experience with most of their expected key contributors right about to enter the prime of their careers. Head coach Gary Kubiak has done a fine job in his first three seasons as coach and the Texans are off back to back 8-8 seasons and poised to make a run at the Playoffs. Matt Schaub is a highly regarded QB while Andre Johnson is considered one of the top 3 receivers in the NFL. Steve Slayton is a solid running back that gives the offense balance. It's taken a couple of seasons for the young defense to show signs of maturity but the nucleus is solid. The offense has shown steady improvement over the past 3 seasons, improving yard per game averages by 25, 55 and 48 yards going from 254 ypg in 2005 to 382 last season. Defensively the Texans are average statistically with less dramatic improvements but the talent level is clearly as high as its been in the brief history of the franchise. If you are looking for a surprise team to make the Playoffs this season you would do well to consider the Texans who have a realistic shot at a 10 win season, especially with 4 games against the NFC West replacing last season's 4 interconference games against the NFC North. OPINION DATE -- August 24, 2009. -- WINNER

CHICAGO BEARS -- OVER 8 1/2 -- Priced at - 160 at Las Vegas Hilton --Chicago got a major upgrade at QB during the off season, trading away Kyle Orten to Denver for the disgruntled Jay Cutler. In his brief career Cutler has shown he has a bright future. With the Bears he also has a solid ground game with Matt Forte emerging as a solid RB. The Bears still are strong on defense. With Devon Hester returning punts they remain a threat to score on special teams. The Bears have won at least 9 games in 3 of the past 4 seasons. Although both Minneota and Green Bay represent threats within the Division the Bears also play 4 games against the weak NFC West plus replace the tough AFC South with the AFC North. They play Pittsburgh at home but will face Baltimore on the road in what is likely their most difficult non-Division road test. The high vig keeps this from being a Full Recommendation although OVER a Total of 9 wins at no greater than - 110 would qualify for such a classification. The defense showed significant improvement in 2008 vs 2007, especially against the run. After allowing 123 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush those numbers improved to allowing just 94 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per rush in 2008. If the Bears can just maintain those stats the improvement they should show on offense will make the Bears a legitimate threat to make the Playoffs after a two season absence. OPINION DATE -- August 31, 2009. -- LOSER


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -- UNDER 8 -- Priced at + 105 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Jacksonville has had a talented team for much of this decade yet has generally underachieved under coach Jack del Rio. In 6 seasons as head coach his Jags have had 2 double digit win seasons and also a pair of double digit loss seasons including 5-11 in 2008. His teams have been competitive and rarely get blown out as was the case last season when their first 5 losses were by a TD or less, leading to a 4-5 start. Although that record is hardly a disaster and teams have recovered from such a start to make the Playoffs the Jags actually performed much worse the rest of the way, going 1-6 with 5 of the 6 losses by double digits. Is this a case of fatigue, lack of depth, lack of motivation or a combination of all three? QB David Garrard is average at best and although they have an elite runner in Maurice Jones-Drew the receiving corps leaves much to be desired. Jacksonville also faces just 4 teams that had worse than a 7-9 record last season with two of those games on the road. The window appears to have closed on Jacksonville being a Playoff contender with this nucleus of players and coaching staff. The Jags will be tested early with 3 of their first 4 games against AFC South Division rivals (2 on the road) and a home game against Super Bowl runner up Arizona in week 2. Their performance over those games could well set the tone for the balance of their season but that start could be 1-3. The forecast is for modest improvement over last season but still failing to reach .500. OPINION DATE -- September 9, 2009. -- WINNER


BALTIMORE RAVENS -- OVER 8 1/2 -- Priced at - 200 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Baltimore should again have a solid if not dominating defense that will keep them in contention with Pittsburgh for top honors in the AFC North. The offense is likely to show some improvement with second year QB Joe Flacco looking to build further upon his impressive rookie season. He has a stable of quality running backs at his disposal and some decent receivers. The key will be defense and even though they have a new defensive coordinator after Rex Ryan left to coach the Jets there is plenty of continuity and on field leadership. The high vig keeps this from being a full Recommendation but the Ravens are well situated to post at least 10 wins in 2009. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER


ATLANTA FALCONS -- OVER 8 1/2 -- Priced at Even at Las Vegas Hilton -- Atlanta has never had back to back winning seasons in the history of the franchise. Under first year coach Mike Smith and rookie QB Matt Ryan the Falcons finished 11-5 in 2008 so that history will either come to an end or be continued. The expectation is that history comes to an end as the Falcons are a team on the rise. They had started to show growth several seasons ago before the dual disasters of QB Michael Vick and ex-head coach Bobby Petrino derailed those advances. Atlanta has beefed up its roster and now has a fine blend of veteran leadership and maturing youth. They have a well balanced offense and a solid defense that augers well for the next few seasons. The forecast is for Atlanta to come close to duplicating last season's 11 wins. At the very least their schedule sets up for 9 wins or more. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER


BUFFALO BILLS -- UNDER 7 1/2 -- Priced at + 105 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Buffalo got off to a fine 4-0 start in 2008 before a second half fade that saw the Bills finish 7-9 for the thrid season in a row. They added volatile WR Terrell Owens during the offseason and the general consensus is that it's just a matter of time before friction develops between him and QB Trent Edwards as such problems have developed in all of Owens' prior stops. The offense is without star RB Marshawn Lynch for the first 4 games of the season due to suspension and the Bills fired their offensive coordinator just as the preseason was ending. Not very encouraging signs at all. The defense may be modestly improved over last season but overall the Bills appear to be the weakest team in the AFC East. The forecast is for Buffalo to struggle to even match the 7-9 record of the past 3 seasons with a 5 or 6 win season a distinct possibility and a coaching change for 2010. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER


OAKLAND RAIDERS -- UNDER 6 -- Priced at - 155 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Oakland continues to be the NFL's most dysfunctional organization (and that's saying a lot) with questionable draft choices and other management/ownership decisions befuddling most observers. They had the much publicized punching incident during training camp and also suffered one of the most lopsided losses in preseason history to New Orleans. After making it to the Super Bowl following the 2002 season (where they lost to Tampa Bay and ex-coach Jon Gruden in a rout) the Raiders have an NFL-worst 24-72 record over the past 6 seasons, worst even than Detroit (which managed a league first 0-16 last season). The only cause for optimism is that Division rivals Denver and Kansas City appear to be equally as inept entering the 2009 season. Still, even a 4-0 sweep of the Broncos and Chiefs (very unlikely) would still leave the Raiders 3 wins short of going OVER. And looking at their schedule it's hard to find where those wins would come. Only the high - 155 vig keeps this from being a full Recommendation. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER

DENVER BRONCOS -- UNDER 7 -- Priced at - 185 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Almost all pre season analyses of the Broncos call for a disappointing 2009 season. One of the most stable franchises over the years has both a new coach (Josh McDaniels) and a new starting QB (Kyle Orten) and returns a defense that let the team down badly last season. The lack of positive enthusiasm is so rampant that the Broncos opened with a win total of 7 1/2 with the UNDER priced at - 175 and yet the UNDER money poured in and continues to pour in. Because of the high vig and the fact that the vig is high even though the total wins has already been adjusted downwards by a half game keeps our enthusiasm for this play weak at best. Yet it's hard to envision too many scenarios that have the Broncos managing to finish 8-8. This appears to be both a rebuilding season in terms of personnel and a learning season for the new coaching staff. The defense has allowed more average yards per game in each successive season for the past 3 seasons, allowing over 140 rushing yards per game in each of the past two seasons. With 4 games against the NFC East plus games against Baltimore, Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh (each of whom won 11 or more games in 2008) suggests that topping 7 wins might qualify McDaniels for Coach of the Year honors even with an 8-8 record. But the high vig and lost value of half a game keep this as a weak opinion. OPINION DATE -- August 13, 2009. -- LOSER


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -- UNDER 6 1/2 -- Priced at - 175 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Much like with our analysis of Denver the high vig keeps this from being anything more than a weak opinion although Tampa clearly seems to fit the profile of a team likely to win 5 or fewer games this season. Major questions as quarterback, an aging defense, limited quality at wide receiver and a first year head coach all contribute to the concerns for a team that faded badly over the last part of the 2008 season, losing their final 4 games to fall from 9-3 and a high seed in the Playoffs to a 9-7 record, no Playoffs and the firing of coach Jon Gruden. The other three teams in the AFC South all appear to be at least as strong if not stronger than last season and the Bucs were 3-3 against this group in 2008, winning all three home Divisional games. A second reason for classifying the UNDER as a Weak rather than a Strong Opinion relates to the adjustment already made by the Linesmaker. Tampa was 9-7 in 2008 after also going 9-7 a season earlier. There is still talent on this team which suggests that they might flirt with .500. Still, the final analysis shows that this team should struggle early in the season and our initial remarks of this being a 5-11 team or worse makes this an UNDER play. OPINION DATE -- August 31, 2009. -- WINNER


PITTSBURGH STEELERS -- OVER 10 1/2 -- Priced at - 140 at Las Vegas Hilton -- The defending Super Bowl and AFC North champions return fairly intact from last season which is unusual for a Super Bowl champion. Usually significant personnel changes occur after a team wins the Super Bowl but the fact that this has not really occurred is a testament to the strength and stability of the Steeler organization from upper management and ownership right down to the coaching staff and veteran leadership. Pittsburgh figures to again be strong defensively and rely on a potent rushing attack on offense although QB Ben Roethlisberger is more than capable of directing an aerial attack. Their interconference games are against the NFC North rather than the NFC East as was the case last season and their two toughest NFC foes -- Minnesota and Green Bay -- are at home. And the road game in Chicago is early in the season (week 2). The Steelers have won at least 10 reguar season games in 4 of the last 5 seasons and in 3 of the seasons they won at least 12 regular season games. Asking Pittsburgh to finish 11-5 or better is not a stretch and they have a real shot at 13 wins based on their strengths, balance, stability and how their schedule lays out. The high vig keeps this from being a Strong Opinion. OPINION DATE -- September 9, 2009. -- LOSER


TENNESSEE TITANS -- UNDER 9 -- Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton -- The Titans had the best record in the regular season in 2008 (13-3) but fell at home to Baltimore 13-10 in the Divisional round of the Playoffs, going one and done. During the offseason they lost defensive lineman extraordinaire Albert Haynesworth to Washington and decided to stick with aging veteran Kerry Collins at QB rather than commit to Vince Young or go after a more athletic signal caller. The Titans are very well coached with head man Jeff Fisher now being the longest tenured coach in the NFL. The offense has a decent running game but the receiving corps is rather ordinary. The competition in the AFC South appears to be better this season with Houston on the rise, Jacksonville on the rebound and Indianapolis still on top. The Titans play just one team in their first 6 games that had a losing record in 2008 and that is a road game at Divisional foe Jacksonville so the Titans could have a rough start to their 2009 season. Admittedly the call on Tennessee to finish no better than 8-8 was a tough one given the history of coach Fisher. Yet it should be noted that the Titans won just 5, 4 and 8 games between 2004 and 2006 following a pair of double digit win seasons the prior two campaigns, a situation that also exists in 2009. Because of Fisher the call for the UNDER can not be classified as anything other than a weak opinion as it would not surprise at all to see the Titans fashion another winning season. But the call is for 7-9. OPINION DATE -- September 9, 2009. -- WINNER


CAROLINA PANTHERS -- UNDER 8 1/2 -- Priced at - 150 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Carolina coach John Fox did wonders in rebuilding the Panthers earlier this decade but the franchise seems to have been treading water the past few seasons. Sure, they did make the Playoffs last season with an 11-5 record but then was one and done in the Playoffs, losing badly on their home field to Arizona in one of the team's poorest efforts in seasons. Carolina did little to improve the team during the offseason and both sides of the ball are aging. After going 4-0 vs the AFC West (where no team had a winning record) in 2008 the interconference slate features games against the AFC East (3 teams had winning records and Buffalo was 7-9). The pedigree of coach Fox, a solid running game and the high vig keep this from being anything more than a weak opionion. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER


DETROIT LIONS -- UNDER 4 1/2 -- Priced at + 120 at Las Vegas Hilton -- There's only one way to go and that's up after last season's 0-16 campaign and the Lions do indeed appear to be much improved. But they have both a new head coach and a rookie QB to lead them and there has been vast turnover in personnel with more than 50 percent of this season's Opening Day roster new faces from 2008. There will be growing pains and the rest of the NFC North is strong as Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota have the talent and balance to win double digit games. And with the history of so many teams failing to win 5 games the Lions are a prime candidate to be among that group. However, the attitude and culture have changed and there is the possibility the Lions could surprise. But 3 or 4 wins is a likely scenario and it is best to look for modest improvement to occur over the second half of the season. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -- OVER 11 1/2 -- Priced at - 135 at Las Vegas Hilton -- The Pats were 16-0 in 2007 and then lost QB Tom Brady in the first half of the first game of 2008. Depsite having to rely upon backup Matt Cassel -- who had not started a game since high school -- the Pats still managed to go 11-5 but missed the Playoffs due to tiebreakers with Miami. Brady is now healthy and the Pats have reloaded and restocked at other key positions and appear poised to reclaim their throne atop the AFC. They are clearly the best team in the AFC East and one of the elite teams in the entire league (if not THE best team). The Pats have the talent and leadership to win at least a dozen games and 13 or 14 wins is quite possible. Still, injuries at any number of positions could leave New England vulnerable which is why, especially at - 135 vig, this can be no more than a weak opinion although the forecast calls for 13 wins. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- LOSER

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -- UNDER 9 -- Priced at + 110 at Las Vegas Hilton -- The Saints have one of the most potent passing games in the NFL but still must show better balance with their running game and also improvement on defense. The Saints have the talent to win 10 games if all goes right but that is the key concern, especially on defense. The Saints have basically been a .500 team for most of the past decade although have won 11 games twice. But Division rivals Atlanta and Carolina both appear to be at least on equal footing with the Saints and the replace the AFC West (against whom they were 3-1 last season) with the tougher AFC East. All in all the prospects are greater for the Saints to finish at .500 or below than to finish with double digit wins. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- LOSER


NEW YORK GIANTS -- UNDER 9 1/2 -- Priced at + 120 at Las Vegas Hilton -- The Giants have been one of the most stable franchises in the NFL for many years and as such rarely endure terrible campaigns. After winning the Super Bowl 2 seasons ago by upsetting then 18-0 New England the G-men responded with a solid 2008 by earning the top NFC seed with their 12-4 record. But the season ended abruptly with a home Playoff loss to Division rival Philadelphia. The loss/departure of two veteran receivers (Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress) leave the Giants thin at the position which places added pressure on QB Eli Manning to show he is more than an effective game manager. The Division is tough and the Giants have only 2 games against teams that had losing records last season. A drop off would not be a surprise and 9-7 is a reasonable forecast which still keeps the Giants UNDER the number. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER


NEW YORK JETS -- OVER 7 1/2 -- Priced at Even at Las Vegas Hilton -- A new era begins for the Jets as Rex Ryan takes over as head coach and Mark Sanchez starts at QB as a rookie. Ryan was responsible for Baltimore's outstanding defense of the past few seasons and he managed to attract some former Ravens to join him at the Meadowlands. The offense has a solid offensive line and running game and the defense should show steady improvement throughout the season. The Jets were 8-3 last season and on the verge of winning the AFC East much less just making the Playoffs. But as we have all since learned QB Brett Favre was playing through injury and the Jets dropped 4 of their last 5 to finish 9-7. The talent is clearly there to contend for the Playoffs. But a change in regime often has some setbacks and it remains to be seen if the Jets can take one step forward or will first take two steps back. The forecast is for at least an 8-8 season but the situation of relying on a rookie QB makes this a weak opinion. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER


SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -- OVER 7 -- Priced at - 145 at Las Vegas Hilton -- The 49ers showed signs of both life and improvement after Mike Singletary took over as coach in the middle of last season and there are many positives to build upon. Yes, the Niners are weak at QB but they do have an elite RB in Frank Gore and an elite defensive player in LB Patrick Willis. Singletary has already emphasized both physical and mental toughness and has shown he will not tolerate less than a full effort from his players. Unfortunately the 49ers have not had a .500 season since they last made the Playoffs in 2002 when they wet 11-5. They did go 7-9 in 2 of the last 3 seasons so 8-8 would cement a turnaround in the franchise's fortunes. The high vigs keeps this from being a stonger opinion but the forecast is for an 8-8 season. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER


WASHINGTON REDSKINS -- UNDER 8 -- Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton -- Washington has an outstanding and well balanced defense that has put up impressive statistics in each of the past two seasons. Unfortunately the offense has lagged behind because of sub-par QB play. The running game is solid with Clinton Portis shouldering the load. But the Redskins have the misfortune of playing in the NFC East, arguably the best Division in the NFL over the past several seasons. Still, the combination of a solid running game and defense keeps the Redskins in most games but the lack of a playmaking QB hurts their chances to pull upsets. This was one of the toughest decisions to make vis-a-vis going OVER or UNDER but the call was for the Skins to fall short of 8-8 given the down situation at QB and the difficulty that presents in their Division where they could well be underdogs in all 6 Division games. OPINION DATE -- September 12, 2009. -- WINNER