Over the weeks leading up to the 2007 NFL Season we shall be reviewing each NFL team and making recommendations on whether or not that team is likely to achieve the level of wins posted at the Hilton Race & Sports book in Las Vegas, Nevada.

As we reach conclusions on each team we shall post them on this Web Page that is available only to subscribers to one or more of our weekly Football Newsletters and/or our Premium Selection Service.

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TEAM             Wins     TEAM              Wins    TEAM              Wins 
--------------  ------    --------------  ------    --------------  ------
Arizona          7        Green Bay        7 1/2    Oakland          5    
Atlanta [1]      6 1/2    Houston          6 1/2    Philadelphia [3] 9 1/2
Baltimore        9        Indianapolis    10 1/2    Pittsburgh       9    
Buffalo          6        Jacksonville     9        St Louis         7 1/2
Carolina         9        Kansas City      7 1/2    San Diego       10 1/2
Chicago         10        Miami            7        San Francisco    7 1/2
Cincinnati       9        Minnesota        6 1/2    Seattle          9    
Cleveland        5 1/2    New England     11 1/2    Tampa Bay        7    
Dallas           9        New Orleans      9        Tennessee        7    
Denver           9 1/2    N Y Giants       8        Washington       7 1/2
Detroit [2]      6 1/2    N Y Jets         8                              



[1] Opened at 7 1/2          [2] Opened at 6          [3] Opened at 9

The Hilton uses a 20 cents line in setting a spread for the Overs and Unders, meaning that for a team on which the Over is priced at - 140 the Under is priced at + 120. Likewise a team on which the opinion is evenly divided the line would be - 110 on the Over and - 110 on the Under. As the 'favoritism' for an Over or Under increases the 20 cents spread may also increase. To view current Over/Under spreads you may view our Future Book charts by clicking here.

In approaching an analysis of playing individual teams to go Over or Under their respective win totals, several global perspectives need to be looked at first.

One key thing to keep in mind is that the public is usually geared to thinking in the positive -- i.e. that things will happen rather than that they won't. In other words, much as the public tends to prefer Favorites over Underdogs in betting the pointspread, and tends to prefer betting Over the Total Points as opposed to Under the Total Points in individual games, the Team Over/Under wins are geared more to betting the Over rather than the Under.

Yet in recent years the public -- especially the so-called "Wise Guys" part of the public -- has become more enlightened about sports betting in general, and Over/Under Season Wins in particular.

In fact, if you total up the number of wins in the above chart for all 32 NFL teams you will find that the sum is 257 1/2. In past seasons it was not unusual for the "projected" wins to total in the mid to upper 260's.

However, barring any games that end in ties, there can only be 256 wins accumulated by the league as a whole, 256 being the total number of regular season games to be played. Thus there is an inherent bias towards the Over which means that on a global basis the value is in betting the Under, although, as this season's Total of 257 1/2 shows, that bias/value has been virtually eliminated.

Going even further, if one were to bet every team to go Over their total, because of the half wins for several of the teams it would take 283 wins overall to cash each ticket, or a league record for 256 games of 283-229, a spread of 54 games. If you were to bet every team OVER the total and those teams on even numbers landed on those numbers you are still looking at a total number of games of 264 to WIN or PUSH betting every team to go OVER their Total, a variance of 8 games above the 256 being playedl (this would result in 13 wins and 19 pushes).

Obviously this is impossible but compare this scenario to betting Under for all teams in which case the total number of wins needed to cash every ticket drops to 232, or an overall record of 232-280, a spread of 48 games. To WIN or PUSH every team going UNDER it Total would require a total of exactly 242 wins, a variance of 14 games above or below the total number of 256 games to be played (this would result in the same 13 wins and 19 pushes, obviously, since only the 13 teams with "half games" would not result in those Pushes).

Numerically the value slightly lies with the Under although we know that some of teams shall also exceed their number of wins. One way to get an overview of what the linesmaker expects is to recast the above table in the form of projected standings, division by division. By doing this exercise we get the following projections.

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   AFC EAST                           NFC EAST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   New England     11.5 -  4.5        Philadelphia     9.0 -  7.0        
   N Y Jets         8.0 -  8.0        Dallas           9.0 -  7.0        
   Miami            7.0 -  9.0        N Y Giants       8.0 -  8.0        
   Buffalo          6.0 - 10.0        Washington       7.5 -  8.5        


   AFC NORTH                          NFC NORTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Pittsburgh       9.0 -  7.0        Chicago         10.0 -  6.0        
   Cincinnati       9.0 -  7.0        Green Bay        7.5 -  8.5        
   Baltimore        9.0 -  7.0        Minnesota        6.5 -  9.5        
   Cleveland        5.5 - 10.5        Detroit          6.0 - 10.0        


   AFC SOUTH                          NFC SOUTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Indianapolis    10.5 -  5.5        Carolina         9.0 -  7.0        
   Jacksonville     9.0 -  7.0        New Orleans      9.0 -  7.0        
   Tennessee        7.0 -  9.0        Atlanta          7.5 -  8.5        
   Houston          6.5 -  9.5        Tampa Bay        7.0 -  9.0        


   AFC WEST                           NFC WEST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   San Diego       10.5 -  5.5        Seattle          9.0 -  7.9        
   Denver           9.5 -  6.5        St Louis         7.5 -  8.5        
   Kansas City      7.5 -  8.5        San Francisco    7.5 -  8.5        
   Oakland          5.0 - 11.0        Arizona          7.0 -  9.0        

By looking at the projected standings we can often spot teams that look out of place. Such teams are not necessarily those that are predicted to win divisions but rather may be teams projected to finish second or teams projected to finish last.

Note that with divisional realignment in 2002, there are now eight divisions, each with exactly four teams. This represents a dramatic change from the prior alignment which featured five divisions of five teams each and one division of six teams.

In general our approach is twofold -- to look for teams that figure to struggle and thus teams to be played Under the total, taking advantage of the built in bias towards the Under. But there is also a strategy geared towards finding teams that may be played Over the total. This strategy involves looking for teams that one expects will make the Playoffs and has a total wins listed of 9 games or less.

In most seasons it will take at least 10 wins to qualify for a Wild Card. In fact, since the NFL adopted its present Playoff format of six division winners and six Wild Cards in 1990 (for a total of 12 Playoff teams -- and modified since Realignment to 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Card teams but still producing 12 Playoff teams each season) there have been 204 teams to make the Playoffs in those 17 seasons. Of those 204 teams, 163 of them had at least 10 wins and another 34 teams had exactly 9 wins. Only 7 teams made the Playoffs with 8-8 records. Looked at another way, 79.9% of all Playoff teams won at least 10 games and 96.6% of all Playoff teams won at least 9 games. Only 3.4% of all Playoff teams over the past 17 seasons made the Playoffs with just 8 wins.

Thus in looking to play teams Over their posted wins total the best strategy is to look for team with a good chance of making the playoffs and whose win totals are 9 or less. Generally these teams will have win totals between 7 and 9. Remember that 9 wins for a Playoff team should at least get you a 'push' on the Over and you have a better than 4 in 5 chance of cashing your ticket should your team make the Playoffs since such teams wins at least 10 games better than 80% of the time.

In looking at teams you may expect to make the Playoffs use history as a guide. Since the NFL expanded to include 12 teams in the Playoffs in 1990 only an average of 6.3 teams make it to the Playoffs the following a Playoff appearance. That is, of the 12 Playoff teams from 2006 (Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Indianapolis, Kansas City, New England, New Orleans, New York Giants, New York Jets, Philadelphia, San Diego, and Seattle) only 6 or 7 of them can be expected to again make the Playoffs in 2006. Only once, in 1995, did as many as 8 of 12 Playoff teams make the Playoffs again the following season and only in 2003 did as few as 4 teams repeat (in 1999, 2205 and 2006 just 5 teams repeated from the previous season). Thus, 6 or 7 teams from 2006 can be expected to make the Playoffs in 2007.

Focus your OVER plays on those teams, especially the 5 or 6 teams you think may make the Playoffs this season after having missed out last season. Because of this recent high degree of parity -- in which 19 of the NFL's 32 teams have made the Playoffs over the past 2 seasons -- the OVER becomes more of a value if you are able to identify those teams that did not make the Playoffs a year ago but may have been in the Playoffs two or three seasons ago and seem to be improved entering this season.

4 teams that did not make the Playoffs in either of the past 2 seasons (Atlanta, Green Bay, Minnesota and St Louis) did make the Playoffs 3 seasons ago. 9 teams (Arizona, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Miami, Oakland, San Francisco and Tennessee) have not made the Playoffs in any of the last 3 seasons.

It is easier to decide upon teams to play Under the total for several reasons, aside from noting that there is built in value in playing the Under. Most developments during the season tend to be negative, generally in the form of extended or season-ending injuries. In looking for teams to play Under it is often a good strategy to look for teams that don't have much depth at several positions, especially at QB and other skill positions. A change in coaching can often lead to a slow start out of the gate.

Also let's look at the opposite of the statistics that define likely Playoff teams. Between 1990 and 2006 there have been 513 individual team seasons. 114 of those teams, or 22.2%, have won 5 or fewer games in a season. 72 of those 114 teams (14.0% of the overall 513 total) have won just 4 or fewer games. Usually, the LOWEST Over/Under Season Win Total will be 5 games. Using the historical percentage of 22.2% it is projected that 7 teams will win 5 or fewer games in 2007.

In each season there were at least 2 teams that won 4 or fewer games and at least 4 teams that won 5 or less. Thus we can expect that 3 or 4 teams will win 4 or fewer games in 2007 and that another 2 or 3 teams will win exactly 5 games.

In the above chart we can see that only one team, Oakland, is projected to win 5 games or less (the Raiders are at 5) and that no team is projected to win 4 or fewer games. Another one team, Cleveland, is projected to win fewer than 6 games with the Browns' Total set at 5 1/2. The most likely prospects to win 5 or fewer games would generally be teams projected at 7 wins or less.

In 2006 there were 6 teams with 5 or fewer wins and 8 teams with 10 or more wins. No team that won at least 10 games in 2006 missed making the Playoff but in 2005 Kansas City, at 10-6, failed to make the Playoffs, becoming only the fourth team since 1990 to win at least 10 games and not make the Playoffs (the previous 3 teams also won exactly 10 games).

Obviously 2002's realignment meant that a different type of analysis was needed to project how a team will do in total wins over the course of a season and what number of wins will be needed to make the Playoffs. It will be several seasons before even tentative conclusions may be drawn. Realignment has radically altered scheduling dynamics and how teams will qualify for the Playoffs. For example, in the past every team played at least half of their games against Division rivals. Now a team plays only six of their 16 games against Division foes so by definition Divisional games are not as important as they had been in the past.

Also, the Playoff field is now comprised of 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Cards instead of 6 and 6. Thus we might see teams in an average but competitive Divisions reach the Playoffs by winning a Division with a record of just 8-8. It will also be possible that a team could finish second in a division with a 10-6 record but not make the Playoffs. Remember, there are now FOUR second place teams in each conference, not just three. In the past it was possible for the top two finishers in each Division to make the Playoffs. Such will no longer be the case. In 2002, for example, the New York Jets made the Playoffs with just a 9-7 record by virtue of being the AFC East champions. However, no team with more than 9 wins missed the Playoffs in 2002. In 2003 only one 10 win team -- Miami -- failed to make the Playoffs and no team with 9 or fewer wins made the Playoffs. The same was true in 2005 when Kansas City's 10 wins did not get them into the Playoffs but also no team with 9 or fewer wins made the field either. In 2006 the New York Giants made the Playoffs with just 8 wins.

In looking at the following recommendations they are presented in the chronological order in which we have reviewed the teams. Unless otherwise indicated, all recommendations are weighted and rated equally at a single unit. In certain cases where the Over or Under we prefer is so highly priced that we cannot in good conscience recommend a straight play equal to one unit we will likely recommend the play at a half unit. Generally these will be teams where the side we prefer is priced at - 140 or higher.

Also, please note that there may be hedging opportunities late in the season if some of our recommendations will be decided in the final week or two.

Here, then, are our recommendations for the 2007 NFL season.

Our analysis often begins with a look at those teams I clearly expect to make the Playoffs. There is not as much value this season in seeking out such teams as in recent seasons. In 2003 there were only two teams (Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) whose projected Total Wins were greater than 9 1/2. In 2004 there were 7 teams with projected wins of at least 10. For 2005 there were 5 teams with projected win totals of 10 or higher. In 2006 there were 6 such teams. However in 2007 there are just 4 teams with projected win totals of 10 or higher (Chicago, Indianapolis, New England and San Diego).

As stated above, there is better than a 75% chance that a Playoff team will have won at least 10 games. Remember that history tells us that 5 or 6 teams that DID NOT make the Playoffs last season WILL make the Playoffs this season

Also, in looking towards UNDERs, keep in mind that historically about 7 teams will finish the season with 5 or fewer wins. Only 1 team, Oakland (5), is projected to win 5 or fewer games.

New York Giants -- UNDER 8 (- 110) -- The Giants should struggled on both sides of the ball this season with an aging defense and revamped offense. The retirement of RB Tiki Barber leaves a huge void in the offense and QB Eli Manning has yet to show he is a team leader. His play has been better in the first half of the past two seasons than in the second half. There has also been friction between the players and head coach Tom Coughlin, a situation that is not likely to improve if the Giants get off to a slow start It's far easier to envision the Giants being 7-9 than it is to see them repeating last season's 9-7 even with a schedule that on the surface seems easier than last season's. (Recommendation Date -- July 17, 2007) -- LOSER


San Francisco 49ers -- UNDER 7 1/2 (+ 135) -- The Niners overachieved with their 7-9 record in 2006 as they took advantage of facing some injured teams along the way. They swept the season series from Division champion Seattle, a feat unlikely to be duplicated in 2007. There are two main reasons I believe the 49ers will not improve upon last season's record. The first is the departure of offensive coordinator Norv Turner, now the head coach of the Chargers. HiS work with QB Alex Smith greatly helped in Smith's improvement last season, as well as the improvement in the running game behind RB Frank Gore. A dropoff in offensive productivity should not be a surprise. Secondly, the 49ers allowed the most points in the entire NFL in 2006 and it's difficult to see how they've made enough off season improvements to make enough of a jump defensively to be even a .500 team in 2007. (Recommendation Date -- July 17, 2007) -- WINNER


Washington Redskins -- OVER 7 1/2 (+ 140) -- Joe Gibbs enters the fourth season of his second tenure with Washington. After inheriting a team that was 5-11 in 2003, Gibbs showed modest improvement in his first season, going 6-10 but playing with a solid defense. In 2005 he guided the 'Skins to a 10-6 win and a Wild Card Playoff win over Tampa Bay. Last season things regressed to 5-11 as injuries and a lack of a pass rush combined with an offense in transition. But the Skins were much more competitive than the record suggests and the turning over of the QB reins to Jason Campbell should begin to pay dividends this season, especially with RB Clinton Portis once again healthy. 3 losses by a FG, another by 2 points and a TD loss in OT stood between the 'Skins being 5-11 and returning to the Playoffs. They lost twice to the Giants in 2006, a team I expect to decline in 2007 and the 'Skins should fare much better than their 1-5 Division record of last season. (Recommendation Date -- July 17, 2007). -- WINNER


Denver Broncos -- OVER 9 1/2 (- 120) -- An upset loss in the season's final game in 2006 left the Broncos 9-7 and missing the Playoffs due to tie breakers. Since Mike Shanahan took over as Denver coach over a decade ago, only once has his team missed the Playoffs in back to back seasons. Last season was a transitional season in the leadership role as young Jay Cutler replaced Jake Plummer at QB. Offseason acquisitions have strengthened the team, especially in the defenseive backfield. A solid running game and a more dependable passing game suggest a more balanced attack. And Shanahan's proven sideline leadership, preparation and ability to adjust suggest Denver returns to the Playoffs which should mean at least 10 wins with the possibility for as many as a dozen. (Recommendation Date -- August 18, 2007). -- LOSER


Seattle Seahawks -- OVER 9 (+ 105) -- Seattle avoided the dreaded post-Super Bowl fade suffered by many winners and losers of the Big Game in recent seasons. The Seahawks finished 9-7 in 2006 and did so despite the loss of QB Matt Hasselbeck and RB Shaun Alexander to injuries for extended periods of time during the season. In fact, of all Playoff teams, the 'Hawks lost the most starter-games to injury last season. They should be able to at least match and likely exceed last season's 9 wins, especially considering they lost twice to San Francisco in 2006, something not likely to occur again. The offense is solid and defense made some key acquisitions, especially to improve the pass rush. Coach Mike Holmgren is a proven winner and leader and with the NFC West still a weak Division overall, Seattle remains the most stable and most talented of the four teams. (Recommendation Date -- August 18, 2007). -- WINNER

Often, Strong Opinions differ from both Recommendations and Weak Opinions in the following way. In making a Recommendation both the Total Number of Wins and the +/- Price must be favorable, especially since there is a several month wait before the results are known. As such it may be impractical or uncomfortable in making a Recommendation on a team to go Over or Under a specified number -- even though the assigned probabilities may be great -- if to do so means laying a price say, in excess of minus 130. Thus a Strong Opinion may often be looked at a play that would have been looked at as a Recommended Play but for the 'vig' attached whereas a Weak Opinion is one that is classified as such more likely because the probabilites assigned to the Over/Under are such that the likelihood of a winning result is considerably less than that of a Recommendation.

Atlanta Falcons -- OVER 6 1/2 (Even) -- When Total Wins were originally posted last spring the Hilton had the Falcons pegged at 7 1/2 with some books posting an 8. This was before the much publicized troubles of QB Michael Vick were fully known. Now, Vick is out for the season (and perhaps his career is over) and the QB reins have been handed to new QB Joey Harrington. A bust with Detroit but better in Miami, Harrington has a stronger running game in Atlanta and the Falcons have upgraded the receiving corps. New coach Bobby Petrino is an innovator on offense and although there are questions about the defense, asking the Falcons to go 7-9 or better is not a stretch at all. In fact, the Falcons have won at least 7 games in each of the last two seasons and in 4 of the last 5. With the public perception so negative towards the Falcons -- and the line following that perception -- the value is with the OVER. And with a more conventional QB at the helm in Harrington, the Falcons should be a better football team anyway. (Opinion Date -- August 18, 2007). -- LOSER


Indianapolis Colts -- OVER 10 1/2 (- 110) -- The defending Super Bowl champions return the trio on offense that led them to the Title last season with QB Peyton Manning, RB Joseph Addai and WR Marvin Harrison in addition to other offensive weapons. The defense remains a concern, especially after suffering off season losses, even though their level of play rose considerably in their Playoff run. They are still the team to beat in the AFC Central despite enthusiasm from some corners for Jacksonville. There is still a gap between the Colts and the Jags and an even bigger gap to the Titans and Texans. The Colts are the only team to have made the Playoffs 5 straight seasons and have won 12, 14, 12, 12 and 10 regular season games during this run, starting with their 10 -6 mark back in 2002. As a team not just likely to make the Playoffs but also one of the leading Super Bowl favorites, barring an injury to Manning -- who has been injury free throughout his career -- the Colts should win at least 12 games this season. Remember that following their 14-2 season of 2005 Indy opened 2006 with 9 straight wins before coasting the rest of the way. (Opinion Date -- September 5, 2007). -- WINNER


Oakland Raiders -- UNDER 5 (+ 145) -- Sure, the Raiders should be improved offensively in 2007 -- it's hard to see them being worse than they were in 2006. But there is still a dearth of overall talent to suggest a significant improvement over last season's 2 wins. Fact is the Raiders have won just 2, 4, 5 and 4 games since their Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay and now have their fourth head coach in five seasons. That's just too much instability and inconsistency to overcome. At a very attractive plus price, the prospects for a 4-12 season -- or worse -- are reasonable. It takes 6-10 or better to beat us and the final part of the schedule (vs Denver, at Green Bay, vs Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, vs San Diego) should dash any false hopes the optimists may have entering November. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- WINNER


Baltimore Ravens -- OVER 9 1/2 (- 110) -- Very quietly the Ravens were 13-3 last season and posessed one of the top defenses in the NFL. They lost a low scoring Playoff game to Baltimore and did suffere some offseason personnel losses but also made some key acquisitions to bolster the offense. Brian Billick has proven to be an outstanding head coach and the Ravens have already won one Super Bowl under his leadership. Division rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh appear to be at least a bit improved over last season in which the Ravens won the Divison by 5 games. As an expected Playoff team once again in 2007, the Ravens should win at least 10 games with their most likely result being 11-5 or 12-4. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


Buffalo Bills -- OVER 6 (- 110) -- The Bills played their best football of last season during the second half as QB J P Losman finely felt comfortable in the offense. While RB Willis McGahee is gone the prospects are bright for rookie Marshawn Lynch to equal or exceed McGahee's production, even as a rookie. Buffalo did suffer some significant losses from their defense, which keeps this from being a Recommendation rather than an Opinion. The defense should gel as the season progresses and the Bills should at least equal or exceed last season's 7-9. If you are looking for a dark horse team to make the Playoffs that hardly anyone is considering, Buffalo may be that team. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- WINNER

Carolina Panthers -- OVER 9 (+ 110) -- Carolina had a disappointing 2006 as they were hit by an unusually large number of key injuries early in the season which set them back in their chase of surprising New Orleans. This season a return to their Playoff form of 2005 is expected. A solid running game with two reliable runners will give QB Jake Delhomme more of an ability to have success in the passing game, especially with a healthy Steve Smith at WR. Coach John Fox has built a solid organization that stresses fundamentals and defense. The Panthers won 11 games in both 2003 and 2005 with much of the same personnel. Look for at least 10 wins from this season's Panthers with an upside of 12-4. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007).-- LOSER


Cincinnati Bengals -- UNDER 9 (+ 120) -- There's no question about the potency of the Bengals' offense but until the defense shows significant improvement, especially on the road, it's hard to see Cincy improving over last season's 8-8- record. That's even more true with Pittsburgh being improved this season and Baltimore still the team to beat in the AFC North. There is a lack of depth at RB and given the recent history of Bengals players having off the field problems this team could self destruct at any time. Despite the high powered offense there are more reasons to be pessimistic rather than optimistic about their chances this season. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- WINNER


Cleveland Browns -- UNDER 5 1/2 (+ 125) -- There are too many holes that need solidifying and a brutal early season schedule to suggest the Browns will be able to show an improvement from 2006. Quite likely a change to rookie QB Brady Quinn will be made before midseason and there will be a long and tough learning curve. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


Philadelphia Eagles -- OVER 9 1/2 (- 110) -- Philly coach Andy Reid has shown he can win even when star QB Donovan McNabb is lost to a season ending injury. Under his tenure the Birds have gone UNDER the posted total wins just once, the sign of excellent coaching and ability to make in season adjustments. The Eagles remain the team to beat in the NFC East and should again make the Playoffs with a minimum of 10 wins. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


St Louis Rams -- OVER 7 1/2 (- 140) -- This could be the most potent offense in the NFL and with any improvement on defense the Rams will contend for the Playoffs -- perhaps as division winner. Only the high vig keeps this from being a full fledged Recommendation. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


Houston Texans -- UNDER 6 1/2 (+ 130) -- Houston will be improved in 2007 but there still are concerns about the running game and the young defense. With so much new personnel it may be asking alot for the Texans to improve upon last season's 6-10 record. More likely, Houston will be a better team but with just 4 or 5 wins to show for that improvement. But watch out for major strides in 2008. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER

New Orleans Saints -- UNDER 9 1/2 (+ 105) -- The Saints had a remarkable turnaround in 2006 going 10-6 following the Hurricane Katrina aftermath that runied the 2005 season right from the start (3-13) which in turn followed seasons in which the Saints won 8, 8, 9 and 7 games dating back to 2001. First year coach Sean Payton did a masterful job of utilizing the team's strengths that included former San Diego QB Drew Brees, one of the most exciting rookies to enter the NFL in years, Reggie Bush, and an unheralded group of receivers. The defense was barely average but vulnerabilities were masked by the strength and potency of the offense. It should be tougher this season to match last season's 10 regular season wins as 2007 opponents have had an offseason to pick apart what made the Saints successful in 2006. The offense should be strong but not as strong while the defense has some holes to patch. The Saints may indeed be an improved team this season but it may not be reflected in wins and losses as the Saints won 4 games last season by a TD or less and 2 by exactly a FG. They won't catch foes by surprise in 2007. (Opinion Date -- September 5, 2007). -- WINNER


Arizona Cardinals -- UNDER 7 (+ 130) -- The potential for good things from the Cardinals are there -- but they've been there for several seasons and the departure of ex-coach Dennis Green does not remove the major obstacle. After all, Green had a very solid record when coaching in Minnesota -- he didn't suddenly become an idiot when he moved to the desert. Rather, there has been a losing attitude and negative culture surrounding this franchise for years, no, decades. Perhaps new coach Ken Whisenhunt will make a difference but he has to show us first. There is considerable talent on offense yet there are holes along the offensive line. The defense regressed last season. Bottom line is the Cardinals have not won more than 7 games since their last Playoff appearance in 1998. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


Miami Dolphins -- UNDER 7 (- 140) -- The Dolphins are in a period of transition both in terms of a new head coach, Cam Cameron, and a new QB, Trent Green. The offense also lost a key contributor from last season, TE Randy McMichael, and his loss will be felt as Miami learns the Cameron offense. The defense was bolstered by adding ex-Steeler Joey Porter but there are some age concerns overall. Think of this as a rebuilding season for Miami as the prospects for 8-8 appear very dim and a repeat of last season's 6-10 record -- or worse -- is the most realistic scenario. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007) -- WINNER


Chicago Bears -- OVER 10 (- 105) -- Chicago is head and shoulders above the rest of the NFC North and will likely be favored in all 6 Divisional games. Their outstanding defense and the presence of Devon Hestor on special teams keeps them in every game and even allows for the occasional -- or more than occasional -- gaffe by QB Rex Grossman. Chicago is every bit as good -- and perhaps better -- than the teams which won 11 regular season games in 2005 and 13 last season. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


Dallas Cowboys -- UNDER 9 (+ 110) -- The Cowboys have the talent to make the Playoffs again as they did last season when they finished 9-7. The coaching change from Parcells is neutral at best and considered a downgrade by most. There are depth concerns at most positions other than RB. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


Detroit Lions -- UNDER 6 1/2 (+ 115) -- Much like our thoughts on Arizona, there is plenty of potential on the Lions' roster but a losing climate and culture has developed in recent series and it starts right at the top. Detroit has to prove that they are headed back in the right direction. It's hard to find reasons to suggest this is the season of improvement for a team that has not won more than 6 games wince 2000. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


Green Bay Packers -- UNDER 7 1/2 (- 160) -- How much longer can QB Brett Favre weave his magic and will the Packers to victory? Not much longer we believe and if he goes down the Packers have major issues with vitually no running game and a defense that appears improved but could be tested if the offense falters. The high vig keeps this from being a stronger Opinion. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


Jacksonville Jaguars -- OVER 9 (- 165) -- There is plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and Jacksonville is a very real threat to dethrone Indy in the AFC South. When David Garrard was named starting QB and Byron Leftwich was released it meant little backup experience at the position. That, plus the high vig on the OVER, keeps this from being a Strong Opionion or Recommendation. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- WINNER


Kansas City Chiefs -- UNDER 7 1/2 (- 165) -- It is almost universally expected that the Chiefs will not repeat their 9-7 Playoff season from 2006. The question is how far will they fall. Uncertainty at QB and offensive line issues combined with the lengthy holdout of star RB Larry Johnson suggest a slow start to the offense which will tax the shaky defense. A record of 5-11 or 6-10 is the most realistic scenario but the high vig keeps this from being a stronger opinion. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- WINNER

Minnesota Vikings -- UNDER 6 1/2 (+ 115) -- The Vikings are an interesting team that has many ingredients to suggest they will struggle early in the season and then show marked improvement over the season's second half. But the first half troubles should be enough to prevent Minnesota from winning 7 games, especially if injuries take a toll on this talented but young team. Depth at QB is a major concern but look for the Vikes to be a popular dark horse in 2008. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


New England Patriots -- OVER 11 1/2 (- 135) -- The pats carry the largest 2007 expectations with the highest projected win total of any team. It is justified and the Pats should easily make the Playoffs. They play some tough teams in the AFC and should post a 12-4 mark or better, but there is little room for error especially if QB Tom Brady continues to have nagging shoulder injuries. And the departure of RB Corey Dillion makes Laurence Maroney the full time back and creates some depth concerns. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- WINNER


New York Jets -- UNDER 8 (- 140) -- The Jets came from nowhere to go 10-6 and make the Playoffs in 2006 in head coach Eric Mangini's first season. They were relatively free of injuries although they did use a running back by committee approach without the now-retired RB Curtis Martin. Thomas Jones comes from Chicago to give the Jets a solid ground game but questions abound about QB Chad Pennington and the defense, especially against the run, which was horrible in 2006 and does not appear significantly better. At 8 wins the oddsmakers are already expecting a fall back so with that decline already considered in the number -- and the high vig -- this can only be a weak opinion. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- WINNER


Pittsburgh Steelers -- UNDER 9 (- 140) -- Pittsburgh has a new coach and forecasts out to 9 wins this season. With the high vig and the always looming possibilities of injuries, it is better to err on the side of caution and with the high vig it is easiest to make this a weak opinion. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


San Diego Chargers -- OVER 10 1/2 (- 160) -- The Chargers have the talent to again post the best record in the league. But the high vig and the switch to Norv Turner as coach, given his failures in Washington and Oakland, cause this to be a weak opinion. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- WINNER

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- UNDER 7 (Even) -- Jon Gruden has not lived up to expectations since winning the Super Bowl with Tony Dungy's players. The offense has been inconsistent and the defense is aging. 7-9 seems like the right record for the Buccs but there is a greater downside than upside, hence the call for the Under as a weak opinion. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER


Tennessee Titans -- UNDER 7 (- 165) -- The Titans were huge overachievers in 2006 especially once they inserted rookie QB Vince Young into the starting lineup. Expect a regression this season from both Young and the team as a whole which had several narrow fortuante victories down the stretch. (Opinion Date -- September 8, 2007). -- LOSER