Logical Approach's 2016 NFL Power Ratings


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2016 NFL Linear Regression Power Ratings

FINAL 2016 Overall Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, February 5, 2017

Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl 51

Based on Game Results & Opponents Played

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England110.844.12112.90108.78
2Atlanta109.903.84111.82107.98
3Dallas106.26-1.56105.48107.04
4Kansas City105.47-0.45105.25105.70
5Pittsburgh104.633.17106.21103.04
6Denver104.160.24104.28104.04
7Green Bay103.683.56105.46101.90
8Philadelphia103.50-0.47103.26103.73
9Seattle102.831.91103.78101.87
10Oakland102.33-0.18102.24102.42
11Arizona101.921.45102.65101.20
12New Orleans101.622.32102.78100.46
13Washington101.570.80101.97101.17
14Baltimore101.342.98102.8399.85
15Cincinnati100.951.04101.47100.43
16Minnesota100.722.34101.8999.55
17N Y Giants100.512.30101.6699.36
18Indianapolis100.323.48102.0698.58
19San Diego100.061.00100.5699.56
20Tampa Bay100.002.02101.0198.99
21Buffalo99.852.55101.1298.57
22Carolina99.212.28100.3598.07
23Tennessee98.911.0799.4598.38
24Houston98.071.9799.0697.09
25Miami97.243.0798.7795.70
26Detroit97.183.4698.9195.45
27Jacksonville94.982.3796.1693.79
28Chicago92.271.7993.1791.38
29N Y Jets91.712.5592.9890.43
30Cleveland89.771.1990.3689.17
31Los Angeles89.112.4790.3487.87
32San Francisco89.104.8291.5186.69
NFL Average100.001.98100.9999.01

2016 NFL Average Line Played Against Power Ratings

FINAL 2016 Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, February 5, 2017

Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl 51

Based on ALPA -- Average Line Played Against

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England106.804.12108.86104.74
2Seattle104.971.91105.92104.01
3Pittsburgh103.963.17105.54102.37
4Arizona103.351.45104.07102.62
5Atlanta103.043.84104.96101.12
6Kansas City102.41-0.45102.19102.64
7Green Bay102.123.56103.90100.34
8Dallas101.91-1.56101.13102.69
9Carolina101.652.28102.79100.51
10Denver101.530.24101.65101.41
11Washington101.270.80101.67100.87
12Cincinnati101.071.04101.59100.55
13Baltimore100.782.98102.2799.29
14Minnesota100.722.34101.8999.55
15Buffalo100.612.55101.8999.34
16Oakland100.56-0.18100.47100.65
17New Orleans100.312.32101.4799.15
18Philadelphia100.10-0.4799.87100.34
19N Y Giants100.012.30101.1698.86
20San Diego99.331.0099.8398.83
21Tennessee98.511.0799.0597.98
22Detroit98.323.46100.0596.59
23Miami98.263.0799.7996.72
24Houston98.131.9799.1197.14
25Indianapolis98.093.4899.8396.35
26Tampa Bay97.852.0298.8696.84
27N Y Jets97.282.5598.5696.01
28Los Angeles96.392.4797.6395.16
29Jacksonville96.372.3797.5695.19
30Chicago95.631.7996.5294.73
31San Francisco94.524.8296.9392.11
32Cleveland94.141.1994.7393.54
NFL Average100.001.98100.9999.01


2016 NFL Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings

FINAL 2016 Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, February 5, 2017

Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl 51

Based on ARVL -- Average Result Vs Line

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1Atlanta106.863.84108.78104.94
2Dallas104.35-1.56103.57105.13
3New England104.044.12106.10101.98
4Philadelphia103.40-0.47103.16103.63
5Kansas City103.06-0.45102.84103.29
6Denver102.630.24102.75102.51
7Indianapolis102.233.48103.97100.49
8Tampa Bay102.152.02103.16101.14
9Oakland101.77-0.18101.68101.86
10Green Bay101.563.56103.3499.78
11New Orleans101.312.32102.47100.15
12San Diego100.721.00101.22100.22
13Pittsburgh100.673.17102.2699.09
14Baltimore100.562.98102.0599.07
15N Y Giants100.502.30101.6599.35
16Tennessee100.401.07100.9499.87
17Washington100.310.80100.7199.91
18Minnesota100.002.34101.1798.83
19Houston99.941.97100.9398.96
20Cincinnati99.881.04100.4099.36
21Buffalo99.232.55100.5197.96
22Miami98.983.07100.5297.45
23Detroit98.853.46100.5897.12
24Jacksonville98.612.3799.7997.42
25Arizona98.571.4599.3097.85
26Seattle97.861.9198.8196.90
27Carolina97.552.2898.6996.41
28Chicago96.641.7997.5495.75
29Cleveland95.631.1996.2295.03
30San Francisco94.584.8296.9992.17
31N Y Jets94.422.5595.7093.15
32Los Angeles92.712.4793.9591.48
NFL Average100.001.98100.9999.01




The above Linear Regression Power Ratings are based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.


The Average Line Played Against Power Ratings use a similar concept but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.



The Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings also use the concept described above but do so from the perspective of how a teams has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins be 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of overachievement and underachievement by each team.

Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road Rating.


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