Logical Approach's 2014 NFL Power Ratings




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2014 NFL Linear Regression Power Ratings

FINAL 2014 Overall Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, February 1, 2015

Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl XLIX (49)

Based on Game Results & Opponents Played

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England112.661.77113.54111.77
2Seattle109.656.06112.68106.62
3Denver108.60-0.18108.51108.69
4Green Bay108.413.57110.20106.63
5Kansas City105.53-0.48105.29105.77
6Baltimore105.314.29107.45103.16
7Dallas105.172.61106.48103.87
Buffalo105.175.23107.78102.55
9Indianapolis104.213.04105.73102.69
10Philadelphia103.790.86104.22103.36
11Miami102.840.86103.27102.41
12Detroit102.223.52103.98100.46
13San Diego101.811.23102.43101.20
14Pittsburgh101.693.28103.33100.05
15Houston101.612.83103.03100.20
16Arizona100.944.14103.0198.87
17Cincinnati100.084.46102.3197.85
18St Louis98.933.41100.6397.22
19San Francisco98.814.48101.0596.57
20Minnesota98.614.04100.6396.59
21N Y Giants98.142.0299.1597.13
22Carolina97.754.2499.8795.63
23New Orleans97.226.21100.3394.12
24Atlanta96.234.5298.4993.97
25Cleveland96.073.0597.5994.54
26N Y Jets95.171.8796.1094.23
27Chicago93.553.5695.3391.77
28Washington91.110.8491.5390.69
29Oakland90.92-1.2990.2891.57
30Tampa Bay90.343.8592.2688.41
31Jacksonville89.42-0.1589.3589.50
32Tennessee88.032.3989.2386.84
NFL Average100.002.82101.4198.59

2014 NFL Average Line Played Against Power Ratings

FINAL 2014 Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, February 1, 2015

Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl XLIX (49)

Based on ALPA -- Average Line Played Against

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1Denver107.66-0.18107.57107.75
2Seattle107.426.06110.45104.39
3Green Bay104.943.57106.73103.16
4New England104.641.77105.53103.76
5New Orleans104.256.21107.36101.15
6San Francisco103.474.48105.71101.23
7Indianapolis102.563.04104.08101.04
8Baltimore102.424.29104.57100.28
9Detroit101.703.52103.4699.94
10Dallas101.502.61102.80100.19
11Philadelphia101.490.86101.92101.06
12Pittsburgh101.323.28102.9699.68
13Cincinnati101.244.46103.4799.01
14Miami101.210.86101.64100.78
15Kansas City101.03-0.48100.79101.27
16San Diego100.601.23101.2199.98
17Buffalo99.695.23102.3097.07
18Arizona98.884.14100.9596.81
19Houston98.592.83100.0197.18
20Atlanta98.574.52100.8396.31
21N Y Giants98.302.0299.3197.29
22Carolina98.264.24100.3896.14
23St Louis98.013.4199.7296.31
24Cleveland98.003.0599.5396.48
25Chicago97.973.5699.7596.19
26Minnesota97.194.0499.2195.17
27N Y Jets96.981.8797.9296.05
28Washington96.450.8496.8796.03
29Tampa Bay95.313.8597.2393.38
30Tennessee94.552.3995.7493.35
31Oakland93.16-1.2992.5193.80
32Jacksonville92.62-0.1592.5592.70
NFL Average100.002.82101.4198.59


2014 NFL Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings

FINAL 2014 Ratings --- Updated Through Sunday, February 1, 2015

Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl XLIX (49)

Based on ARVL -- Average Result Vs Line

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England108.011.77108.90107.13
2Buffalo105.485.23108.09102.86
3Kansas City104.50-0.48104.26104.74
4Dallas103.682.61104.98102.37
5Green Bay103.473.57105.25101.68
6Houston103.022.83104.43101.60
7Baltimore102.884.29105.03100.74
8Philadelphia102.300.86102.73101.87
9Seattle102.236.06105.2699.20
10Arizona102.064.14104.1399.99
11Indianapolis101.663.04103.18100.14
12Miami101.620.86102.05101.19
13Minnesota101.424.04103.4499.40
14San Diego101.211.23101.83100.60
15Denver100.94-0.18100.85101.03
16St Louis100.913.41102.6299.21
17Detroit100.533.52102.2998.77
18Pittsburgh100.373.28102.0198.73
19N Y Giants99.842.02100.8598.83
20Carolina99.494.24101.6197.37
21Cincinnati98.844.46101.0796.61
22N Y Jets98.191.8799.1297.25
23Cleveland98.063.0599.5996.54
24Oakland97.76-1.2997.1298.41
25Atlanta97.664.5299.9295.40
26Jacksonville96.80-0.1596.7296.87
27Chicago95.583.5697.3693.80
28San Francisco95.344.4897.5893.10
29Tampa Bay95.033.8596.9593.10
30Washington94.660.8495.0894.24
31Tennessee93.492.3994.6892.29
32New Orleans92.976.2196.0789.86
NFL Average100.002.82101.4198.59




The above Linear Regression Power Ratings are based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.


The Average Line Played Against Power Ratings use a similar concept but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.



The Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings also use the concept described above but do so from the perspective of how a teams has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins be 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of overachievement and underachievement by each team.

Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road Rating.


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