Logical Approach's 2010 NFL Power Ratings


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2010 NFL Linear Regression Power Ratings

FINAL OVERALL RATINGS --- Updated Through Sunday, February 6, 2011 -- Through NFL Week # 21 -- Super Bowl XLIV

Based on Game Results & Opponents Played

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England114.730.49114.97114.48
2Green Bay112.221.56113.00111.44
3Pittsburgh110.182.20111.28109.08
4N Y Jets107.160.04107.18107.14
5Baltimore106.925.05109.44104.39
6Atlanta104.782.74106.15103.41
7San Diego104.730.89105.17104.28
8Philadelphia104.492.11105.55103.44
9Chicago104.344.33106.50102.17
10Indianapolis103.061.16103.64102.48
11N Y Giants102.340.94102.81101.87
12Detroit102.142.58103.43100.85
13New Orleans101.200.21101.31101.10
14Tennessee101.083.09102.6399.54
15Miami100.451.02100.9699.94
16Oakland100.14-1.1199.59100.70
17Tampa Bay99.121.0799.6598.58
18Minnesota98.595.06101.1296.06
19Kansas City98.46-0.6298.1598.77
20Cincinnati98.450.4898.6998.21
21Cleveland98.372.8499.7996.95
22Houston98.273.2699.9096.64
23Dallas97.983.2699.6196.35
24Washington96.030.4396.2595.82
25Jacksonville95.883.8597.8093.95
26Buffalo95.511.4896.2594.77
27San Francisco94.072.7795.4592.68
28St Louis93.154.0295.1691.14
29Seattle91.345.6294.1588.53
30Denver91.11-1.1190.5591.66
31Arizona87.172.6388.4985.86
32Carolina86.531.0987.0885.99
NFL Average100.001.98100.9999.01

2010 NFL Average Line Played Against Power Ratings

FINAL RATINGS --- Updated Through Sunday, February 6, 2011 -- Through NFL Week # 21 -- Super Bowl XLIV

Based on ALPA -- Average Line Played Against

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England105.200.49105.44104.95
2San Diego105.150.89105.59104.70
3New Orleans104.790.21104.90104.69
4Baltimore104.515.05107.04101.99
5Pittsburgh104.232.20105.33103.13
6Indianapolis103.891.16104.47103.31
7Green Bay103.811.56104.59103.03
8Atlanta103.652.74105.02102.28
9Philadelphia103.362.11104.41102.30
10N Y Giants103.040.94103.51102.57
11N Y Jets101.950.04101.97101.93
12Dallas101.363.26102.9999.73
13Tennessee100.703.09102.2499.15
14Houston100.663.26102.2999.03
15Miami99.971.02100.4899.46
16Chicago99.904.33102.0797.74
17Minnesota99.625.06102.1597.09
18Kansas City99.30-0.6298.9999.61
19San Francisco99.282.77100.6797.90
20Cincinnati98.470.4898.7198.23
21Washington97.860.4398.0897.65
22Tampa Bay97.741.0798.2797.20
23Denver97.19-1.1196.6397.74
24Cleveland97.072.8498.4995.65
25Jacksonville97.063.8598.9895.13
26Oakland96.51-1.1195.9597.06
27St Louis96.224.0298.2394.21
28Seattle95.755.6298.5692.94
29Detroit95.652.5896.9494.36
30Buffalo95.621.4896.3694.88
31Arizona95.612.6396.9294.29
32Carolina94.901.0995.4594.36
NFL Average100.001.98100.9999.01


2010 NFL Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings

FINAL RATINGS --- Updated Through Sunday, February 6, 2011 - Through NFL Week # 21 -- Super Bowl XLIV

Based on ARVL -- Average Result Vs Line

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England109.530.49109.78109.29
2Green Bay108.411.56109.19107.63
3Detroit106.492.58107.78105.20
4Pittsburgh105.952.20107.05104.85
5N Y Jets105.210.04105.23105.19
6Chicago104.434.33106.60102.27
7Oakland103.63-1.11103.08104.19
8Baltimore102.415.05104.9399.88
9Tampa Bay101.381.07101.91100.84
10Cleveland101.302.84102.7299.88
11Philadelphia101.142.11102.19100.08
12Atlanta101.132.74102.5099.76
13Miami100.481.02100.9999.97
14Tennessee100.393.09101.9398.84
15Cincinnati99.980.48100.2299.74
16Buffalo99.901.48100.6499.16
17San Diego99.580.89100.0399.14
18N Y Giants99.300.9499.7798.83
19Indianapolis99.171.1699.7598.59
20Kansas City99.16-0.6298.8599.47
21Minnesota98.975.06101.5096.44
22Jacksonville98.823.85100.7496.89
23Washington98.170.4398.3997.96
24Houston97.623.2699.2595.99
25St Louis96.934.0298.9494.92
26Dallas96.623.2698.2594.99
27New Orleans96.410.2196.5196.30
28Seattle95.585.6298.3992.77
29San Francisco94.782.7796.1793.40
30Denver93.92-1.1193.3694.47
31Carolina91.631.0992.1891.09
32Arizona91.562.6392.8890.25
NFL Average100.001.98100.9999.01




The above Linear Regression Power Ratings are based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.


The Average Line Played Against Power Ratings use a similar concept but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.



The Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings also use the concept described above but do so from the perspective of how a teams has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins be 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of overachievement and underachievement by each team.

Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road Rating.


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