Logical Approach's 2009 NFL Power Ratings


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2008 NFL Linear Regression Power Ratings

FINAL OVERALL RATINGS --- Updated Through Game of Sunday, February 7, 2010 -- Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl XLIV

Based on Game Results & Opponents Played

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New Orleans112.190.49112.43111.94
2New England109.96-1.54109.19110.73
3Minnesota109.003.80110.90107.10
4N Y Jets107.94-0.19107.85108.04
5Baltimore107.773.95109.74105.79
6Indianapolis107.273.75109.14105.39
7Green Bay106.841.73107.70105.97
8San Diego106.333.43108.04104.61
9Dallas106.313.43108.02104.59
10Atlanta104.932.40106.13103.73
11Philadelphia104.712.05105.74103.69
12Carolina103.881.15104.45103.30
13Houston102.055.46104.7899.32
14Pittsburgh101.771.91102.72100.81
15Miami101.60-1.27100.96102.23
16Cincinnati100.57-1.2999.93101.22
17San Francisco100.252.57101.5398.96
18Denver100.092.85101.5198.66
19N Y Giants99.910.79100.3099.51
20Arizona99.684.44101.9097.46
21Buffalo98.090.9298.5597.63
22Tennessee97.332.7498.7095.96
23Chicago96.303.2097.9094.70
24Washington95.191.9196.1594.24
25Tampa Bay94.212.7895.6092.82
26Jacksonville93.603.3695.2891.92
27Cleveland91.701.3192.3691.05
28Kansas City91.342.4792.5790.10
29Seattle90.914.1993.0088.81
30Oakland89.46-0.8489.0489.88
31Detroit85.951.5786.7385.16
32St Louis82.904.2885.0480.76
NFL Average100.002.12101.0698.94

2008 NFL Average Line Played Against Power Ratings

FINAL RATINGS --- Updated Through Game of Sunday, February 7, 2010 -- Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl XLIV

Based on ALPA -- Average Line Played Against

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New Orleans106.180.49106.43105.94
2New England106.15-1.54105.38106.92
3Indianapolis105.433.75107.30103.55
4Pittsburgh105.091.91106.04104.13
5Minnesota104.973.80106.87103.07
6Baltimore104.583.95106.56102.61
7Dallas104.493.43106.21102.78
8Philadelphia104.202.05105.22103.17
9N Y Giants104.030.79104.42103.63
10Green Bay103.791.73104.65102.92
11San Diego103.493.43105.21101.78
12Arizona102.204.44104.4299.98
13Tennessee101.892.74103.26100.52
14Houston101.665.46104.3998.93
15N Y Jets101.06-0.19100.97101.16
16Atlanta100.552.40101.7599.35
17Cincinnati100.44-1.2999.79101.08
18Denver99.632.85101.0598.20
19San Francisco99.412.57100.6998.12
20Miami99.15-1.2798.5199.78
21Chicago99.073.20100.6797.47
22Jacksonville98.953.36100.6397.27
23Carolina98.871.1599.4498.29
24Washington97.251.9198.2196.30
25Seattle97.084.1999.1894.99
26Buffalo96.730.9297.1996.27
27Tampa Bay93.352.7894.7491.96
28Kansas City93.332.4794.5692.09
29Cleveland93.321.3193.9792.66
30Oakland91.97-0.8491.5592.39
31Detroit90.941.5791.7290.15
32St Louis90.784.2892.9288.64
NFL Average100.002.12101.0698.94


2008 NFL Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings

FINAL RATINGS --- Updated Through Game of Sunday, February 7, 2010 - Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl XLIV

Based on ARVL -- Average Result Vs Line

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1N Y Jets106.88-0.19106.79106.98
2New Orleans106.010.49106.25105.76
3Carolina105.011.15105.58104.43
4Atlanta104.372.40105.57103.17
5Minnesota104.023.80105.92102.12
6New England103.81-1.54103.04104.58
7Baltimore103.183.95105.16101.21
8Green Bay103.051.73103.91102.18
9San Diego102.843.43104.55101.12
10Miami102.45-1.27101.82103.09
11Indianapolis101.843.75103.7299.97
12Dallas101.813.43103.53100.10
13Buffalo101.360.92101.82100.90
14Tampa Bay100.862.78102.2599.47
15San Francisco100.842.57102.1299.55
16Philadelphia100.512.05101.5499.49
17Denver100.462.85101.8999.04
18Houston100.395.46103.1297.66
19Cincinnati100.13-1.2999.49100.78
20Cleveland98.381.3199.0497.73
21Kansas City98.012.4799.2496.77
22Washington97.941.9198.9096.99
23Oakland97.50-0.8497.0897.92
24Arizona97.484.4499.7095.26
25Chicago97.233.2098.8395.63
26Pittsburgh96.681.9197.6495.73
27N Y Giants95.880.7996.2895.49
28Tennessee95.442.7496.8194.07
29Detroit95.011.5795.8094.23
30Jacksonville94.663.3696.3492.98
31Seattle93.824.1995.9291.73
32St Louis92.124.2894.2689.98
NFL Average100.002.12101.0698.94




The above Linear Regression Power Ratings are based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.


The Average Line Played Against Power Ratings use a similar concept but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.



The Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings also use the concept described above but do so from the perspective of how a teams has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins be 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of overachievement and underachievement by each team.

Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road Rating.


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