Logical Approach's 2008 NFL Power Ratings


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2008 NFL Linear Regression Power Ratings

CURRENT OVERALL RATINGS --- Updated Through Games of Sunday, February 1, 2009 -- Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl XLIII

Based on Game Results & Opponents Played

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1Pittsburgh110.381.09110.93109.84
2Baltimore109.904.96112.38107.42
3Tennessee108.631.94109.60107.66
4Philadelphia108.460.20108.56108.36
5N Y Giants108.050.78108.44107.66
6Indianapolis105.892.16106.97104.81
7San Diego104.791.58105.58104.00
8New England104.24-0.95103.76104.71
9Carolina103.98-3.89102.03105.92
10New Orleans103.54-1.47102.80104.27
11Minnesota103.325.16105.90100.74
12Atlanta102.900.04102.92102.88
13Green Bay102.452.29103.59101.30
14Tampa Bay101.761.14102.33101.19
15Chicago101.673.63103.4999.86
16Arizona101.393.96103.3799.41
17Dallas100.972.03101.9999.96
18N Y Jets100.540.35100.71100.36
19Miami99.382.06100.4198.35
20Houston99.374.37101.5697.19
21Washington98.623.33100.2996.96
22Jacksonville97.283.8899.2295.34
23Buffalo96.981.7397.8596.12
24Cleveland95.440.7795.8295.05
25San Francisco95.313.5697.0993.53
26Denver93.943.5995.7492.15
27Cincinnati93.11-0.4592.8893.33
28Seattle92.995.1295.5590.43
29Oakland92.251.4392.9791.54
30Kansas City90.503.7392.3788.64
31Detroit86.455.6189.2583.64
32St Louis85.514.0887.5583.47
NFL Average100.002.12101.0698.94

2008 NFL Average Line Played Against Power Ratings

CURRENT RATINGS --- Updated Through Games of Sunday, February 1, 2009 -- Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl XLIII

Based on ALPA -- Average Line Played Against

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1Indianapolis104.932.16106.01103.85
2Dallas104.782.03105.79103.76
3N Y Giants104.670.78105.06104.28
4Pittsburgh104.621.09105.16104.07
5Philadelphia104.100.20104.20104.00
6San Diego103.761.58104.55102.97
7Tennessee103.681.94104.65102.71
8New England103.26-0.95102.79103.74
9Carolina102.91-3.89100.96104.85
10Tampa Bay102.291.14102.86101.72
11Minnesota102.155.16104.7399.57
12Green Bay101.692.29102.83100.54
13N Y Jets101.390.35101.56101.21
14Chicago101.073.63102.8899.25
15Jacksonville100.733.88102.6798.79
16Baltimore100.684.96103.1698.20
17Arizona100.603.96102.5898.62
18New Orleans100.17-1.4799.43100.90
Washington100.173.33101.8398.50
20Denver100.113.59101.9198.32
21Houston99.754.37101.9497.57
22Buffalo99.501.73100.3798.64
23Atlanta99.040.0499.0699.02
24Miami98.522.0699.5597.49
25Cleveland96.640.7797.0396.26
26San Francisco96.553.5698.3394.77
27Seattle96.195.1298.7593.63
28Cincinnati94.62-0.4594.4094.85
29Oakland93.561.4394.2892.85
30Kansas City92.863.7394.7290.99
31Detroit92.815.6195.6290.01
32St Louis92.204.0894.2490.16
NFL Average100.002.12101.0698.94


2008 NFL Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings

CURRENT RATINGS --- Updated Through Games of Sunday, February 1, 2009 - Through NFL Week # 21 -- After Super Bowl XLIII

Based on ARVL -- Average Result Vs Line

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1Baltimore109.224.96111.70106.74
2Pittsburgh105.761.09106.31105.22
3Tennessee104.951.94105.92103.98
4Philadelphia104.360.20104.46104.26
5Atlanta103.860.04103.88103.84
6N Y Giants103.390.78103.78103.00
7New Orleans103.37-1.47102.63104.10
8Minnesota101.175.16103.7598.59
9Carolina101.07-3.8999.13103.02
10San Diego101.031.58101.82100.24
11New England100.97-0.95100.50101.45
12Indianapolis100.952.16102.0399.87
13Miami100.862.06101.8999.83
14Arizona100.803.96102.7898.82
15Green Bay100.762.29101.9099.61
16Chicago100.603.63102.4298.79
17Houston99.624.37101.8097.43
18Tampa Bay99.471.14100.0498.90
19N Y Jets99.150.3599.3398.98
20Cleveland98.800.7799.1898.41
21San Francisco98.763.56100.5496.98
22Oakland98.691.4399.4197.98
23Cincinnati98.49-0.4598.2698.71
24Washington98.463.33100.1296.79
25Kansas City97.643.7399.5195.78
26Buffalo97.481.7398.3596.62
27Seattle96.805.1299.3694.24
28Jacksonville96.553.8898.4994.61
29Dallas96.192.0397.2195.18
30Denver93.833.5995.6392.04
31Detroit93.635.6196.4490.83
32St Louis93.324.0895.3691.28
NFL Average100.002.12101.0698.94




The above Linear Regression Power Ratings are based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.


The Average Line Played Against Power Ratings use a similar concept but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.



The Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings also use the concept described above but do so from the perspective of how a teams has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins be 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of overachievement and underachievement by each team.

Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road Rating.


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