Logical Approach's 2007 NFL Power Ratings


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2007 NFL Linear Regression Power Ratings

FINAL OVERALL RATINGS --- Updated Through Game of Sunday, February 3, 2008 -- Through NFL Week # 21 -- Super Bowl XLII

Based on Game Results & Opponents Played

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England118.87-0.16118.79118.95
2Indianapolis111.544.10113.59109.49
3Green Bay109.64-0.12109.58109.70
4San Diego109.342.98110.83107.85
5Dallas109.081.97110.07108.10
6Jacksonville106.834.41109.03104.62
7N Y Giants105.371.84106.29104.45
8Philadelphia105.310.53105.58105.05
9Pittsburgh105.081.40105.78104.38
10Minnesota104.033.94106.00102.06
11Washington103.263.78105.15101.37
12Seattle102.204.26104.33100.07
13Chicago101.482.46102.71100.25
14Tampa Bay100.811.38101.50100.12
15Tennessee100.522.63101.8399.20
16Houston99.952.71101.3198.60
17Cleveland98.821.3499.4998.15
18Cincinnati97.49-0.2897.3597.63
19New Orleans97.44-1.7396.5798.30
20Detroit96.652.7698.0395.27
21Denver96.173.7698.0594.29
22N Y Jets96.110.7796.5095.73
23Arizona96.022.7197.3794.66
24Buffalo95.711.4696.4494.98
25Kansas City94.665.1297.2292.10
26Carolina94.15-2.1093.1095.20
27Oakland94.141.2894.7893.50
28Baltimore93.144.5595.4290.87
29Miami91.444.0093.4489.44
30Atlanta89.470.4389.6989.26
31San Francisco88.213.6990.0686.37
32St Louis87.062.9888.5585.57
NFL Average100.002.15101.0898.92

2007 NFL Average Line Played Against Power Ratings

FINAL RATINGS --- Updated Through Game of Sunday, February 3, 2008 -- Through NFL Week # 21 -- Super Bowl XLII

Based on ALPA -- Average Line Played Against

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1New England114.07-0.16113.99114.15
2Indianapolis107.224.10109.27105.17
3Dallas105.941.97106.92104.95
4San Diego105.212.98106.70103.72
5Pittsburgh105.041.40105.74104.34
6Jacksonville102.334.41104.54100.13
7Green Bay102.24-0.12102.18102.30
8Seattle101.924.26104.0599.79
9Philadelphia101.680.53101.94101.41
10New Orleans101.49-1.73100.62102.35
11Tennessee100.792.63102.1199.48
12N Y Giants100.661.84101.5899.74
13Cincinnati100.65-0.28100.51100.79
14Washington100.343.78102.2398.45
15Denver100.283.76102.1698.40
16Chicago99.912.46101.1498.68
17Tampa Bay99.611.38100.3098.92
18Minnesota99.463.94101.4397.49
19Baltimore99.184.55101.4596.90
20Cleveland98.841.3499.5198.17
21Houston98.442.7199.7997.08
22Arizona98.182.7199.5496.83
23Detroit97.792.7699.1796.41
24Carolina97.08-2.1096.0398.13
25Kansas City96.555.1299.1193.99
26N Y Jets96.500.7796.8996.12
27Buffalo96.271.4697.0095.54
28Oakland95.471.2896.1194.83
29Miami94.874.0096.8792.87
30St Louis94.712.9896.2093.22
31Atlanta93.960.4394.1893.75
32San Francisco93.353.6995.1991.50
NFL Average100.002.15101.0898.92


2007 NFL Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings

FINAL RATINGS --- Updated Through Game of Sunday, February 3, 2008 - Through NFL Week # 21 -- Super Bowl XLII

Based on ARVL -- Average Result Vs Line

RankTeamRatingHFHomeRoad
1Green Bay107.40-0.12107.34107.46
2New England104.80-0.16104.72104.88
3N Y Giants104.711.84105.63103.79
4Minnesota104.583.94106.55102.61
5Jacksonville104.504.41106.70102.29
6Indianapolis104.324.10106.37102.27
7San Diego104.132.98105.62102.64
8Philadelphia103.630.53103.90103.37
9Dallas103.151.97104.13102.16
10Washington102.923.78104.81101.03
11Chicago101.572.46102.80100.34
12Houston101.512.71102.87100.16
13Tampa Bay101.201.38101.89100.51
14Seattle100.294.26102.4298.16
15Pittsburgh100.041.40100.7499.34
16Cleveland99.981.34100.6599.31
17Tennessee99.722.63101.0498.41
18N Y Jets99.610.7799.9999.22
19Buffalo99.441.46100.1798.71
20Detroit98.872.76100.2597.49
21Oakland98.671.2899.3198.03
22Kansas City98.115.12100.6795.55
23Arizona97.832.7199.1996.48
24Carolina97.08-2.1096.0398.13
25Cincinnati96.85-0.2896.7196.99
26Miami96.574.0098.5794.57
27New Orleans95.95-1.7395.0896.81
28Denver95.893.7697.7794.01
29Atlanta95.510.4395.7295.29
30San Francisco94.863.6996.7193.02
31Baltimore93.974.5596.2491.69
32St Louis92.352.9893.8490.86
NFL Average100.002.15101.0898.92




The above Linear Regression Power Ratings are based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.


The Average Line Played Against Power Ratings use a similar concept but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.



The Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings also use the concept described above but do so from the perspective of how a teams has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins be 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of overachievement and underachievement by each team.

Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road Rating.


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