Over the weeks leading up to the 2004 NFL Season we shall be reviewing each NFL team and making recommendations on whether or not that team is likely to achieve the level of wins posted at the Stardust Race & Sports book in Las Vegas, Nevada.

As we reach conclusions on each team we shall post them on this Web Page that is available only to subscribers to one or more of our weekly Football Newsletters and/or our Premium Selection Service.

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TEAM             Wins     TEAM              Wins    TEAM              Wins 
--------------  ------    --------------  ------    --------------  ------
Arizona          5        Green Bay        9 1/2    Oakland          7 1/2
Atlanta          9        Houston          6        Philadelphia    10    
Baltimore        9        Indianapolis    10 1/2    Pittsburgh       8    
Buffalo          7 1/2    Jacksonville     7 1/2    St Louis        10    
Carolina         9        Kansas City     10 1/2    San Diego        4 1/2
Chicago          6 1/2    Miami            8 1/2    San Francisco    5 1/2
Cincinnati       8        Minnesota        9        Seattle          9    
Cleveland        7        New England     11        Tampa Bay        9    
Dallas           9        New Orleans      7 1/2    Tennessee       10    
Denver           9        N Y Giants       6 1/2    Washington       9    
Detroit          7        N Y Jets         8 1/2                          

NOTES --

Since our original posting the Stardust has upped Detroit from 6 1/2 to 7 wins and lowered Green Bay from 10 to 9 1/2

Miami has been taken "off the board" following Ricky Williams' retirement but has been seen offshore at mostly 8 1/2 wins.

The Stardust generally uses a 30 cents line in setting a spread for the Overs and Unders, meaning that for a team on which the Over is priced at - 140 the Under is priced at + 110. Likewise a team on which the opinion is evenly divided the line would be - 115 on the Over and - 115 on the Under. As the 'favoritism' for an Over or Under increases the 30 cents spread also increases. To view current Over/Under spreads you may view our Future Book charts by clicking here.

In approaching an analysis of playing individual teams to go Over or Under their respective win totals, several global perspectives need to be looked at first.

One key thing to keep in mind is that the public is usually geared to thinking in the positive -- i.e. that things will happen rather than that they won't. In other words, much as the public tends to prefer Favorites over Underdogs in betting the pointspread, and tends to prefer betting Over the Total Points as opposed to Under the Total Points in individual games, the Team Over/Under wins are geared more to betting the Over rather than the Under.

In fact, if you total up the number of wins in the above chart for all 32 NFL teams you will find that the sum is 263 1/2. However, barring any games that end in ties, there can only be 256 wins accumulated by the league as a whole, 256 being the total number of regular season games to be played. Thus there is an inherent bias towards the Over which means that on a global basis the value is in betting the Under.

Going even further, if one were to bet every team to go Over their total, because of the half wins for several of the teams it would take 289 wins overall to cash each ticket, or a league record for 256 games of 289-223, a spread of 66 games. If you were to bet every team OVER the total and those teams on even numbers landed on those numbers you are still looking at a total number of games of 270 to WIN or PUSH betting every team to go OVER their Total.

Obviously this is impossible but compare this scenario to betting Under for all teams in which case the total number of wins needed to cash every ticket drops to 238, or an overall record of 238-274, a spread of just 36 games. To WIN or PUSH every team going UNDER it Total would require a total of just 249 wins, a variance of just 7 games from the total number of games to be played.

Numerically the value clearly lies with the Under although we know that some of teams shall also exceed their number of wins. One way to get an overview of what the linesmaker expects is to recast the above table in the form of projected standings, division by division. By doing this exercise we get the following projections.

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   AFC EAST                           NFC EAST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   New England     11.0 -  5.0        Philadelphia    10.0 -  6.0        
   Miami            8.5 -  7.5        Dallas           9.0 -  7.0        
   N Y Jets         8.5 -  7.5        Washington       9.0 -  7.0        
   Buffalo          7.5 -  8.5        N Y Giants       6.5 -  9.5        


   AFC NORTH                          NFC NORTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Baltimore        9.0 -  7.0        Green Bay        9.5 -  6.5        
   Pittsburgh       8.0 -  8.0        Minnesota        9.0 -  7.0        
   Cincinnati       8.0 -  8.0        Chicago          6.5 -  9.5        
   Cleveland        7.0 -  9.0        Detroit          7.0 -  9.0        


   AFC SOUTH                          NFC SOUTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Indianapolis    10.5 -  5.5        Tampa Bay        9.0 -  7.0        
   Tennessee       10.0 -  6.0        Atlanta          9.0 -  7.0        
   Jacksonville     7.5 -  8.5        Carolina         9.0 -  7.0        
   Houston          6.0 - 10.0        New Orleans      7.5 -  8.5        


   AFC WEST                           NFC WEST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Kansas City     10.5 -  5.5        St Louis        10.0 -  6.0        
   Denver           9.0 -  7.0        Seattle          9.0 -  7.0        
   Oakland          7.5 -  8.6        San Francisco    5.5 - 10.5        
   San Diego        4.5 - 11.5        Arizona          5.0 - 11.0        

By looking at the projected standings we can often spot teams that look out of place. Such teams are not necessarily those that are predicted to win divisions but rather may be teams projected to finish second or teams projected to finish last.

Note that with divisional realignment there are now eight divisions, each with exactly four teams. This represents a dramatic change from the prior alignment which featured five divisions of five teams each and one division of six teams.

In general our approach is twofold -- to look for teams that figure to struggle and thus teams to be played Under the total, taking advantage of the built in value towards the Under. But there is also a strategy geared towards finding teams that may be played Over the total. This strategy involves looking for teams that one expects will make the Playoffs and has a total wins listed of 9 games or less.

In most seasons it will take at least 10 wins to qualify for a Wild Card. In fact, since the NFL adopted its present Playoff format of six division winners and six Wild Cards in 1990 (for a total of 12 Playoff teams -- and modified since Realignment to 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Card teams) there have been 168 teams to make the Playoffs in those 14 seasons. Of those 168 teams, 134 of them had at least 10 wins and another 30 teams had exactly 9 wins. Only 4 teams made the Playoffs with 8-8 records. Looked at another way, 79.8% of all Playoff teams won at least 10 games and 97.6% of all Playoff teams won at least 9 games. Only 2.4% of all Playoff teams over the past 14 seasons won just 8 games.

Thus in looking to play teams Over their posted wins total the best strategy is to look for team with a good chance of making the playoffs and whose win totals are 9 or less. Generally these teams will have win totals between 7 and 9. Remember that 9 wins for a Playoff team should at least get you a 'push' on the Over and you have a better than 3 in 4 chance of cashing your ticket should your team make the Playoffs since such teams wins at least 10 games better than 75% of the time.

In looking at teams you may expect to make the Playoffs use history as a guide. Since the NFL expanded to include 12 teams in the Playoffs in 1990 only an average of 6.5 teams make it to the Playoffs the following a Playoff appearance. That is, of the 12 Playoff teams from 2003 (Baltimore, Carolina, Dallas, Denver, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Kansas City, New England, Philadelphia, St Louis, Seattle and Tennessee) only 6 or 7 of them can be expected to again make the Playoffs in 2004. Only once, in 1995, did as many as 8 of 12 Playoff teams make the Playoffs again the following season and only in 2003 did as few as 4 teams repeat (in 1999 just 5 teams repeated from 1988). Thus, 6 or 7 teams from 2003 can be expected to make the Playoffs in 2004. Focus your OVER plays on those teams, especially the 5 or 6 teams you think may make the Playoffs this season after having missed out last season. Because of this recent high degree of parity -- in which 20 of the NFL's 32 teams have made the Playoffs over the past two seasons -- the OVER becomes more of a value if you are able to identify those teams that did not make the Playoffs a year ago but may have been in the Playoffs two or three seasons ago and thus are fairly close to returning this season.

It is easier to decide upon teams to play Under the total for several reasons, especially noting that there is built in value in playing the Under. Also, most developments during the season tend to be negative, generally in the form of extended or season-ending injuries. In looking for teams to play Under it is often a good strategy to look for teams that don't have much depth at several positions, especially at QB and other skill positions. A change in coaching can often lead to a slow start out of the gate. Also let's look at the opposite of the statistics that define likely Playoff teams. Between 1990 and 2003 there have been 417 individual team seasons. 91 of those teams, or 21.8%, have won 5 or fewer games in a season. 58 of those 91 teams (13.9% of the overall 417 total) have won just 4 or fewer games. In each season there were at least 2 teams that won 4 or fewer games and at least 4 teams that won 5 or less. Thus we can expect that 4 teams will win 4 or fewer games in 2004 and that another 2 teams will win exactly 5 games. In the above chart we can see that only two teams, Arizona and San Diego, are projected to win 5 games or less and that no team is projected to win 4 or fewer games. The most likely prospects to win 5 or fewer games would generally be teams projected at 7 wins or less.

Obviously realignment requires a different type of analysis to project how a team will do in total wins over the course of a season and what number of wins will be needed to make the Playoffs. It will be several seasons before even tentative conclusions may be drawn. Realignment has radically altered scheduling dynamics and how teams will qualify for the Playoffs. For example, in the past every team played at least half of their games against Division rivals. Now a team plays only six of their 16 games against Division foes so by definition Divisional games are not as important as they had been in the past. Also, the Playoff field will be comprised of 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Cards instead of 6 and 6. Thus we might see teams in an average but competitive Divisions reach the Playoffs by winning a Division with a record of just 8-8. It will also be possible that a team could finish second in a division with a 10-6 record but not make the Playoffs. Remember, there are now FOUR second place teams in each conference, not just three. In the past it was possible for the top two finishers in each Division to make the Playoffs. Such will no longer be the case. In 2002, for example, the New York Jets made the Playoffs with just a 9-7 record by virtue of being the AFC East champions. However, no team with more than 9 wins missed the Playoffs in 2002. In 2003 only one 10 win team -- Miami -- failed to make the Playoffs and no team with 9 or fewer wins made the Playoffs.

In looking at the following recommendations they are presented in the chronological order in which we have reviewed the teams. Unless otherwise indicated, all recommendations are weighted and rated equally at a single unit. In certain cases where the Over or Under we prefer is so highly priced that we cannot in good conscience recommend a straight play equal to one unit we will likely recommend the play at a half unit. Generally these will be teams where the side we prefer is priced at - 140 or higher.

Also, please note that there may be hedging opportunities late in the season if some of our recommendations will be decided in the final week or two.

Here, then, are our recommendations for the 2004 NFL season.

Our analysis begins with a look at those teams we clearly expect to make the Playoffs. There is not as much value this season in seeking out such teams as there was in 2003 since there are 7 teams projected to win at least 10 games whereas in 2003 there were only two teams (Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) whose projected Total Wins are greater than 9 1/2.

As stated above, there is better than a 75% chance that a Playoff team will have won at least 10 games. Remember that history tells us that five or six teams that DID NOT make the Playoffs last season WILL make the Playoffs this season.

WINNER -- New Orleans Saints -- OVER 7 1/2 (- 115) -- Recommendation Date August 16, 2004 -- The Saints are a talented team at the key offensive positions and have a defense that is good enough to make key stands. Although the Saints were # 27 in the NFL against the rush the defense was 8th against the pass. The talent is there. Considered underachievers in recent seasons New Orleans will rely offensively on RB Deuce McAllister who had a breakthrough season in 2003 (remember that he was preferred over workhorse Ricky Williams a few seasons back). The Saints are a maturing team with a good combination of talent, depth and experience to make not just a run at the Playoffs but could also be the third straight NFC representative in the Super Bowl from the NFC South. This is at least an 8-8 team and talentwise has the ability to achieve double digit wins.


WINNER -- Pittsburgh Steelers -- OVER 8 (+ 140) -- Recommendation Date August 16, 2004 -- Few teams in sports have shown the stability of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Bill Cowher begins his 13th season as head coach and he and Chuck Noll are the only coaches the Steelers have had since 1969. Cowher has been to the Playoffs in 8 of his 12 seasons although the four misses have been over the past six seasons. Pittsburgh has gotten younger in the backfield with RB Duce Staley coming over from Philadelphia and the defense should be healthier this season and bounce back from a disappointing 2003 in which the defense was still ranked above average. Cowher has shown he can both coach and assemble a defense and with only average QB play from either Tommy Maddox or rookie Ben Roethlisberger the Steelers are again a Playoff team as they battle Baltimore for the Division title and a ten win season.


LOSER -- Oakland Raiders -- OVER 7 1/2 (- 120) -- Recommendation Date August 22, 2004 -- Oakland had won 3 straight Division Titles prior to last season's 4-12 disaster that was largely due to key injuries at QB and WR and a complete breakdown in player/coach relations. Oakland is a very deep team this season and make key additions to their defensive front which suggests they will be a very well balanced team on both sides of the ball. New Coach Norv Turner is a brilliant offensive mind and he has the players to keep opposing defenses off balance. Expect not just a big bounceback from the Raiders this season but look for Oakland to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender, resembling more the Playoff teams of 2000-2002 than the tattered team of 2003. Oakland should reach double digits in wins.


WINNER -- Minnesota Vikings -- UNDER 9 (+ 115) -- Recommendation Date September 1, 2004 -- Many observers have high expectations for the Vikings. They note the 6-0 start last season before the Vikes finished by losing 7 of their final 10 games. Minnesota has trouble with their running game and in finding a reliable complimentary receiver to team with Randy Moss. Add to the mix the nagging injuries that have plagued starting QB Duante Culpepper in recent seasons and it can be argued that the potentially explosive Viking offense is rather fragile. Defensively is where Minnesota really falls short. They have not ranked higher than #23 in total defense in any of the past five seasons. In playing the UNDER it takes a 10-6 record to beat us and our projections suggest the Vikings are basically a .500 -- or 8-8 -- team.


WINNER -- Cleveland Browns -- UNDER 7 (- 140) -- Recommendation Date September 1, 2004 -- Since entering the NFL in 1999 the "new" Browns have struggled to find a running game on offense and in stopping the run on defense. Although they appear headed in the right direction on offense (they averaged over 100 yards per game on offense -- 104 -- for the first time) they still allow over 130 ypg on the ground. A new QB also takes time in getting acclimated to a new system and the Browns' receivers are average at best. With four games each against the tough AFC East and the improved NFC East plus playing in an improved Division it seems hard to see this team making it to .500. Rather, the Browns will be fortunate to win 6 games which would put them two games better than our projection of 4-12.


LOSER -- Atlanta Falcons -- UNDER 9 (- 135) -- Recommendation Date September 3, 2004 -- Many expectations have been placed on the shoulders (and legs) of QB Mike Vick but the offensive talent supporting him is questionable, especially at wide receiver. But there are three major concerns for the Falcons. First, there is a new coaching staff in place as Jim Mora Jr takes over for Dan Reeves. This means there is often a learning curve that takes at best several weeks for a team to feel comfortable in new schemes and systems. Secondly, the Atlanta defense was atrocious last season and little was done in the offseason to shore up many holes. A third concern is the overall strength of the Division. Carolina, New Orleans and tampa Bay are all solid teams and each has a legitimate chance for the Playoffs. The Falcons appear to be overrated and perhaps a season -- and an improved defense -- away from Playoff contention. We project the Falcons at 6-10.


WINNER -- Green Bay Packers -- OVER 9 1/2 (+ 125) -- Recommendation Date September 8, 2004 -- As long as Brett Favre is at QB the Packers remain a legitimate contender. With 9 Playoff appearances over the last 11 seasons Green Bay is poised once again to win their share of games. In 7 of the 9 Playoff seasons the Pack won at least 10 games and with some stability at WR Favre has receivers he has been able to be comfortable with for several seasons. A strong running game adds balance to the offense and the defense is above average and clearly better than that of their chief Division rival, Minnesota. Our projection has Green Bay 12-4 and the attractive plus price adds to the value.


WINNER -- New York Jets -- OVER 8 1/2 (- 140) -- Recommendation Date September 8, 2004 -- The Jets made the Playoffs in each of coach Edwards first two seasons and were primed for another post season berth before QB Pennington got injured last summer and missed much of 2003. The Jets did play well once Pennington returned but the season was too long gone for a realistic run. With Miami in decline and Buffalo in transition the Jets should improve upon their 1-3 record against those foes. Twice they were competitive against New England with losses by just 7 and 5 points. There is much upside for the Jets and they have the talent and the coaching to again be a Playoff team. Projected record is 11-5.

WINNER -- Tennessee Titans -- UNDER 10 (- 200) -- Opinion Date September 1, 2004 -- The loss of several key member of both the offensive and defensive units suggest the Titans will struggle early in the season. Jeff Fisher has proven to be an excellent coach and adjustments will be made but by the time the Titans begin to really turn it on in mid season they will have already suffered too many losses to challenge for the Playoffs. The huge price of -200 is what keeps this as an "Opinion" rather than a "Recommendation."


WINNER -- New England Patriots -- OVER 11 (+ 145) -- Opinion Date September 8, 2004 -- With two Super Bowl Championships the past three seasons the Patriots have earned the right to be called the best team in the NFL and the favorite to win Super Bowl XXXIX. They are a well coached and fundamentally sound football team and made several upgrades during the offseason, especially at RB. With Miami and Buffalo teams in transition in the AFC East the main challenge may come from the New York Jets. It would take a 10-6 record to lose the OVER and considering the Pats were 14-2 in 2003 and appear at least as strong if not stronger than last season the OVER is attractive especially at the generous plus price. Our projection calls for New England to finish 12-4 but with so little room for error this is an Opinion rather than a Recommendation..


WINNER -- Carolina Panthers -- UNDER 9 (- 165) -- Opinion Date September 8, 2004 -- Carolina was able to win the close games in last season's super season but they were extremely fortunate. The Panthers won all 7 games decided by 3 points or less so their 11-5 record could easily have been 4-12 or most likely in between. Teams rarely have that same kind of good fortune two seasons in a row and although Carolina will be a better team this season they are likely to struggle to finish with a winning record. We project the Panthers at 8-8. The expensive price for the UNDER keeps this from being a Recommendation rather than an Opinion.


LOSER -- Arizona Cardinals -- UNDER 5 (- 105) -- Opinion Date September 8, 2004 -- When Dennis Green was hired as coach of the Cardinals there were valid reasons for enthusiasm given Green's sparkling record as head coach in Minnesota. But several key injuries for a team already thin on depth and experience suggests the enthusiasm may be at least a season away. Arizona's preseason performances did nothing to suggest areas of concern were successfully addressed and there has been a major movement towards the UNDER in the past two weeks, going from + 140 to -105. We agree with that move with our projection of a 3-13 record for Arizona.


PUSH -- Baltimore Ravens -- OVER 9 (- 145) -- Opinion Date September 8, 2004 -- Baltimore may still have the best defense in the NFL and an offense that figures to be improved in the passing game in QB Boller's second season. The running game is already amongst the best in the league. There seems to be a clear gap between Baltimore and the other three teams in the AFC North and since Playoff teams typically win at least 10 games it would take a fall down to .500 for the OVER to be the wrong play. We project Baltimore to go 12-4 and only the high price attached to the OVER keeps this as an Opinion rather than a Recommendation.


WINNER -- New York Giants -- UNDER 6 1/2 (- 145) -- Surprisingly the Giants have never been a franchise that has enjoyed a period of sustained success. Even under Bill Parcells the Giants only once made the Playoffs three straight seasons and one other time they made the Playoffs in back to back seasons. In the 13 seasons since Parcells left the G-men have made the Playoffs just four times. Last season things totally fell apart under ex-coach Fassell and new coach Coughlin inherits a team very much in transition. Concerns at QB with an aging and increasingly ineffective QB starting for the moment ahead of the potentially solid but still a rookie Manning this should be a long season in which the Giants may do no better than match last season's four wins in a Division in which their rivals appear stronger. Projected record is 4-12.

LOSER -- Buffalo Bills -- UNDER 7 1/2 (+ 110) -- The Bills had a solid defense in 2003 but the coaching change suggests some dropoff while it will take the offense some time to develop efficiency. Bills may play better over the second half of the season and could be contenders in 2005. Projected record is 6-10.


WINNER -- Chicago Bears -- UNDER 6 1/2 (- 110) -- Much like Buffalo the Chicago Bears begin a new era with a change in coaches but unlike the Bills the Bears are weak on both offense and defense. Too many areas need too much improvement too quickly for the the Bears to even approach .500. Projected record is 5-11.


PUSH -- Cincinnati Bengals -- UNDER 8 (- 200) -- The Bengals made great strides in 2003 and ended with a rare non-losing record but they will be hard pressed to improve upon that success in 2004. They will no longer sneak up on teams and the decision to take the starting job away from QB Kitna may prove costly with untested Palmer at the controls. The stiff price attached to the UNDER tempers our enthusiasm for making this higher than a weak opinion though it is hard to see the Bengals going 9-7 which is what it would take for the UNDER to lose. Projected record is 7-9.


WINNER -- Dallas Cowboys -- UNDER 9 (- 200) -- Concerns at QB and RB should prevent the Cowboys from matching last season's 10-6 record. Dallas will show steady improvement during the season under coach Parcells but the best we see for Dallas is a .500 season. Again, the steep price attached to the UNDER affords us little value in having a stronger opinion.


WINNER -- Denver Broncos -- OVER 9 (- 140) -- Denver appears to be stronger defensively and thus in position for a repeat trip to the Playoffs. As such a ten win season is in the offing. But questionable depth at QB and RB and some questions at WR suggest injuries could have more of an impact on the Broncos than on other contending teams. Projected record is 10-6.


WINNER -- Detroit Lions -- UNDER 7 (+ 110) -- Detroit is considered to be a team that could surprise in coach Mariucci's second season as coach with a potentially potent and balanced offense. There are still concerns about the defense and with Green Bay and Minnesota still more talented it would be a stretch for the Lions to improve all the way to .500 this season. But watch out in 2005. Projected record is 6-10.


LOSER -- Houston Texans -- UNDER 6 (+ 160) -- The price attached to the UNDER shows how highly the Texans are thought of and there is good reason. Coach Capers did not take long to develop expansionist Carolina nearly a decade ago and he has the tools -- especially on offense -- to do the same here. Unfortunately the Texans are in a strong Division with with the Colts and Titans regular Playoff participants and the Jaguars on the improve. Houston will be improved in 2004 but we don't see them being able to achieve at least a 7-9 record. Projected record is 5-11.


WINNER -- Indianapolis Colts -- OVER 10 1/2 (+ 110) -- The talented trio of Manning, Harrison and James should again have the Colts near the top of the league in total offense. Coach Dungy has always been a defensive specialist and we should see some defensive improvement again in 2004. The Colts are the strongest team in the AFC South and should be able to at least equal last season's 12 wins. Projected record is 12-4.

LOSER -- Jacksonville Jaguars -- UNDER 7 1/2 (+ 120) -- This is one of our shakiest opinions since all during the off season we were tabbing the Jags as one of the sleepers for 2004 based upon their play down the stretch in 2003 and the expected continued development of QB Leftwich. But beyond oft injured Taylor there is little depth at RB and the same is true at WR. The defense was solid in 2003 but several offseason departures suggest a period of transition. The Jags should close the gap between themselves and the Colts and Titans but not enough to finish at .500 which is what it would take to lose the UNDER. Projected record is 6-10.


WINNER -- Kansas City Chiefs -- UNDER 10 1/2 (- 200) -- The Chiefs took advantage of sharp declines in their Division of both Oakland and San Diego (a combined 19-13 in 2002 but just 8-24 in 2003) and swept all four games en route to a 13-3 record and Division title. The Raiders are clearly improved in 2004 and there are still questions about the Chief's defense. KC was also fortunate in winning a home game against Denver. With a full off season for opposing defensive coordinators to break down the KC offense the Chiefs should give back several of those wins though they are still a contender for the Playoffs. Projected record is 9-7.


WINNER -- Miami Dolphins -- UNDER 8 1/2 (Total and prices vary) -- Many places still have no number up on the Dolphins following the 'retirement' of RB Williams. Still, Miami is a team on the decline and this is perhaps our shakiest opinion, even shakier than our opinion on Jacksonville. The Dolphins have finished at least 9-7 or better in all seasons since 1992 except for 1996 when they were 8-8. Miami has won at least 8 games every season since their 6-10 1988 season. Still we see more of a downside than an upside for the Fish who should battle with Buffalo for third place in the AFC East. Projected record is 7-9.


WINNER -- Philadelphia Eagles -- OVER 10 (- 210) -- Still the class of the NFC East the Eagles should be improved on offense with the addition of WR Owens. That should bolster the overall passing game. The defense did suffer some losses but they have suffered several losses in recent seasons yet continue to be above average. When coach Reid arrived in 1999 the Eagles were off of a 3-13 season. In 1999 Reid showed some improvement as Philly went 5-11 but since 2000 the Eagles have won 11, 11, 12 and 12 regular season games. This is still the team to beat in the NFC. Projected record is 11-5.


WINNER -- San Diego Chargers -- OVER 4 1/2 (- 135) -- The Chargers never recovered in 2003 for the offseason departures of defensive leaders Junior Seau and Rodney Harrison. The offense struggled in the passing game but the running game was amongst the best with RB Tomlinson having an outstanding season. Coach Marty Schottenheimer has been too good a coach throughout his career to not be expected to improve upon last season's 4-12 record. It will be tough since the other three AFC West rivals are all Playoff caliber but we do project the Chargers going 5-11 for a modest improvement.


WINNER -- San Francisco 49ers -- UNDER 5 1/2 (- 155) -- The loss of solid QB Garcia and All Pro receiver Owens indicate this will be a season of transition for the Niners. Coach Erickson did not excel when he had a talented team in Seattle and his in game decisions have been criticized, suggesting games that could tilt either way are more likely to be losses rather than wins. The front office is severely down since the DeBarolos departed. The Niners should edge Arizona for third place in the NFC West but there is a huge gap between the 49ers and both Seattle and St Louis.

PUSH -- Seattle Seahawks -- OVER 9 (- 175) -- Almost by default the Seahawks have to be viewed as an OVER team. After finally making the Playoffs last season under coach Holmgren the Seahawks are at least as good and most likely better than the team that finished 10-6 in 2003. QB Hasselbeck continues to develop and his receivers are also maturing into one of the league's best units. Although there are questions on defense, Seattle should win the NFC West. Projected record is 11-5.


WINNER -- St Louis Rams -- UNDER 10 (- 260) -- Rather than adjust the Total down after huge action on the UNDER 10 the price is the deterring factor at the Stardust from playing the Rams UNDER. Yet that is the way we look with questions about the overall ability of QB Bulger to be the full time on field leader. Coach Martz has also made many questionable in-game decisions and has shown poor clock management way too often. There are questions about the defense and the ability to win on the road. After going 8-0 away from the Dome in 2001 the Rams were just 1-7 in 2002 before rebounding to an average 4-4 last season. Projected record is 8-8.


WINNER -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- UNDER 9 (- 120) -- After winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago things turned around dramtically in 2003 as the Buccs fell from 12-4 to 7-9. The defense was not as fearsome last season as it was the previous few seasons and there have been several key departures of players in leadership roles which suggest the defense may show further decline. The offense may be improved if a running game can be established and coach Gruden is a 'go with' coach more likely to make winning rather than losing sideline decisions. In a season filled with great parity we do see Tampa Bay making the Playoffs as a Wild Card with a rare .500 record. Projected record is 8-8.


LOSER -- Washington Redskins -- OVER 9 (+ 105) -- We are banking on the kind of significant improvement Bill Parcells made with Dallas in 2003 to hold true for Joe Gibbs in 2004. A miltiple Super Bowl winner Gibbs has extraordinary coaching skills and inherits a team that has poured money into talent over the past several seasons. Talent that may have been ill suited for ex-caoch Spurrier's coaching style and philosophy. There are many average teams in the NFC this season and the major upgrade in coaching should be enough to get the Redskins back to the Playoffs. The linesmaker is telling us such with a line of 9 given that the 'Skins were 5-11 in 2003 and have not finished better than 8-8 since 1999. Projected record is 10-6.