In recent years the number of propositions available on the Super Bowl has grown geometrically. Unfortunately there is absolutely no uniformity whatsoever amongst the various Sports Books here in Las Vegas or elsewhere. It seems that every Sports Book has their own unique propositions and those that are 'the same' or 'similar' to props elsewhere often are priced very differently. Thus it is very difficult to recommend specific propostions and our policy has been to set forth some of the propositions available in Las Vegas that seem to be most attractive.

We certainly encourage those of you who are considering specific propostions and want our feedback to email the propositions to us and we shall respond with our opinion/analysis of the prop. Obviously the sooner you can do this, the better but we will try to respond to all such requests in a timely fashion up as late as possible into Sunday morning.

Please email your questions/requests to us at --

logical7@cox.net

Enjoy the game and here's a look at some of the propositions we feel have value and merit to them

One of the features that adds enjoyment to the Super Bowl is the annual POP to which we are treated. That's the Plethora Of Propositions that enable bettors to have action on virtually every play of the game. In fact, several Sports Books even offer a proposition related to the coin toss so it's possible to have action even BEFORE the game kicks off! (It's often phrased as "which team will receive the opening kickoff").

We do, of course, have some generalized comments and will be posting the props about which we are most enthusiastic on our website later this week. To receive our recommended proposition plays be sure to visit our website and go to the SUBSCRIBERS' SELECTIONS & NEWSLETTERS link on our Home Page. When you get to the Subscribers' page the link to access the proposition recommendations will be prominently displayed. Very often several of the props offer a greater opportunity for success than either the Side or Total selection.

Although the Super Bowl may be the most heavily bet game of the year it is generally not the most bettable game of the year. So much is known about both teams and so much attention is paid to almost every angle that most of the wagering possibilities may involve the many propositions that will be posted at the sports books in town, rather than just on the team to cover or whether the game will go Over or Under the total. Many of the ‘props' are innovative and entertaining and are designed to provide action throughout the game. It is literally possible to have action on every single play of the Super Bowl if you play enough of the props.

Much of the success of "prop" wagering dates back to Chicago's appearance in Super Bowl XX. In January 1986 the Bears were heavily favored over New England. But one special wager was offered -- will Chicago defensive lineman William "Refrigerator" Perry score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Then Bears coach Mike Ditka had used Perry several times in the backfield, teaming with the great Walter Payton. Because of the lopsided pointspread in the game, novel ways to attract action were considered. As memory serves, the "Yes" was originally priced in the neighborhood of roughly 15 to 1 that Perry would score a TD. The novelty of such a unique wagering proposition caused an overwhelming number of bettors to take a flyer on that prop. At kickoff the odds had fallen to the vicinity of 4 or 5 to 1 and, sure enough, Perry did score a touchdown in the Bears' 46-10 rout of the Patriots. While the books lost money on that specific prop, it wound up serving as a "loss leader" as props won a huge following. Over the past 20 + years one of most anticipated events of the time between the Conference Title games and the Super Bowl is the release of the many props that can be wagered upon. From what used to be a page or two the offerings at some books fill more than a dozen double sided long sheets. Not only are there props involving the two teams in the game, some creative bookmakers offer props that tie certain events in the Super Bowl to other sports being played over Super Bowl weekend, both within the US and internationally.

Let's share some thoughts on the multitude of propositions available at virtually every sports book in Nevada.

What began as a novelty over 20 years ago has become a phenomenon that is eagerly awaited every season. The growth has been geometric with several properties offering over one hundred different props. At the Las Vegas Hilton, for example, 24 full sized 8 ½ by 14 inch pages filled with nothing but props are available.

A fair amount of creativity goes into the development of these props and considerable research is done in order to offer propositions that on the surface appear even. The use of a 20 cents line, or often a 30 cents line, ensures that the Sports Books will enjoy a healthy profit when all the results are in and the accounting is completed.

For the most part the props have been looked upon as secondary ways to bet the game, more often for fun than for huge monetary gains. But there may be some solid opportunities for nice profits as well.

Sure, there are professionals who scour the city – and the Internet – for the best prices on the props and who have done painstaking research to uncover even the slightest of mathematical, or ‘expected value' edges. And kudos to those who have the time, bankroll and resources to uncover those edges.

But for the majority of those who bet on the game the props merely serve to add enjoyment to the overall experience with the chance for earning a few extra bucks as the game unfolds.

In looking at the many propositions that will be available on the game it's important to note that there are two major types of prop plays. The first is a head to head matchup such as which QB will have more total yards or whether the total number of sacks will be over or under a specified number. The other type of proposition is one that has more than two possible outcomes such as the player who will score the first TD, the margin of victory by the winning team or the combination of the first half result with the total game result. These propositions offer more attractive odds since there are several possible outcomes while the head to head matchups are priced more along the lines of a fairly competitive baseball game in which the favored part of the proposition requires the bettor to lay around -160 and the underdog player gets +130 or +140.

Some of the props are fairly straightforward and involve just two options. An example would be whether or not there will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half. Your choices are either Yes or No. Usually the "Yes" will be favored for this specific prop. A similar type prop involving an individual player might be whether Green Bay QB Rodgers will have more or less than 22 ½ pass completions in the game. Most of these two option props have low odds attached to them so that you might have to lay - 140 or - 150 on the ‘favored' part of the prop while getting back + 120 or + 110 on the ‘underdog' part of the prop. Many props are minus 110 either way such as the Warner completions prop. Some will have - 120/Even Money attached to the prop.

Props with larger payoffs involve multiple options. The most popular of these would include the player to score the first touchdown. Here you can find odds of from 5 or 6 to 1 to as high as 50 to 1 or more. If you believe a Pittsburgh player will score the first TD you might want to consider a play on TE Miller (12-1). For the Packers perhaps you might look at WR Jones (15-1). Ann oddball prop in connection with the first TD of the game is whether the player scoring the initial TD will be wearing an odd or even numbered jersey. Now THAT's creativity – and if you take the time to fully research it you might find an edge.

If you don't want to guess the specific player to score first you might consider a prop that simply asks you to pick the team scoring first and whether that score will be a rushing TD, passing TD, "other" TD or a FG.

There are literally hundreds of propositions that can be wagered upon. Considering the many variations that number increases into the thousands. Every play will affect the outcome of multiple props. They are offered as ways to further enhance the experience of watching the game and provide opportunities for profits.

The best advice for playing the props is to shop, shop and shop some more. Each property will put its individual slant on the props and there will be opportunities for getting better value by comparing the props at the different properties.

The preference here is to look for head to head props as opposed to selecting one result from a list of 5, 10 or even more possible outcomes such as the player to score the first TD of the game or the combination of winning team and final margin. Although the payoff on these multiple outcome props far exceed the head to head props you have a much better chance of collecting on the props that offer just two possible outcomes. A secondary preference within the head to head props is to look to play props that pay even money or better since for the most part the nature of the Super Bowl makes many of the props no better than 50/50 random occurrences such as the team to punt first or to make the initial first down. At the same time a well thought out analysis of how the game might unfold can be profitable in quite a number of the props.

Another way to approach props is to pair them off. An example is to look at playing whether each QB's first pass will be either complete or incomplete. Usually books have this proposition priced with ‘complete' as the favorite for both quarterbacks. Playing the ‘incomplete' at a plus price for each means that you only need one of them to hit to show a profit. Considering that both quarterbacks are likely to face considerable pressure and perhaps have a case of nerves early in the game suggests that the likelihood of both passers completing their first passes is less than the possibility that one or both of them will throw incompletions initially. At the Hilton, for example, the line for Roethlisberger's first pass to be complete opened -220, the incomplete +190. For Rodgers the complete opened -240, the incomplete +200. For these so called "tandem" props you need just one of the two to hit in order to show an overall profit on the pair.

Propositions concerning the last team to score in the first half, the team making the most field goals and similarly worded props should be approached by looking to play on the underdog half of the prop due to the uncertain status of the conditions that might develop during the game such as which team will receive the opening kickoff. Recall that the line has Green Bay a 2 1/2 point favorite. The "value" will more often be on the Steelers in many of the propositions because the public will have an easier time making a case for the Packers as the ‘favored' team in props involving things happening first. The reality is that a great number of such propositions are independent of who you think will win the game or perform better.

Finally there are the inter-sport propositions that match up an event from the Super Bowl against an event from the NBA, NHL, European soccer, PGA golf, etc. Again, some astute analysis can provide an edge in making wagers on these ‘fun' propositions. Surely from amongst the literally hundreds of propositions being offered even the most cynical person can find something to his or her liking.

Above all, remember that in the eyes of the most serious, professional bettors the Super Bowl is just another game and one that often offers little wagering value because the line is strong and heavily influenced by ‘public' money.

Have fun. Enjoy the game. Good luck. And remember that the 2011 NFL season is (hopefully) just six months away.

Will the Team That Scores First Win the Game -- "NO" is Priced at + 150 (Hilton) -- There have been numerous instances of the first score in Super Bowls being made by the team that ultimately loses the game in recent years and, in fact, has happened in 6 of the last 9 Super Bowls overall.


Will There Be A Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown -- "YES" is Priced at + 145 (Hilton) -- These are two of the top defensive teams in the league and both teams indeed scored a defensive touchdown in winnning their Conference Championship games. Both defenses are physical, hard hitting and aggressive and we have seen quite a number of non-offensive touchdowns in recent Super Bowls.


Higher Risk Proposition -- Will Final Margin Be Exactly 3 Points? -- YES -- Priced at + 375 (Hilton) -- This may seem like a stab in the dark and at a price that is less than how it should be priced based on the fact that about 15 % of all games land right on 3 points (making the true odds of it happening about 5.7 to 1. But recent Super Bowls have been extremely competitive and have gone down to the wire with 3 of the last 7 and 4 of the last 9 Super Bowls decided by exactly a FG. 2 years ago, Super Bowl XLIII could easily have also landed on 3 as Arizona led 23-20 before Santonio Holmes' great catch for the winning TD in the Steelers' 27-23 win. This is the most competitively priced Super Bowl in nearly 30 years and the Steelers and Packers are very evenly matched. 4 of Green Bay's games this season were decided by exactly 3 points (all losses with 2 in overtime). 3 of Pittsburgh's games were decided by exactly 3 points with a fourth decided in OT with a TD (their opening game). Both teams have QBs capable of engineering fourth quater drives that could result in a game winning FG or a game tying score that would send the game into overtime and increase the likelihood of the final margin being 3 points. Note that the new OT rules could also come into play with an opening drive FG offset by a TD for which the extra point would not be kicked, resulting in a 3 point margin.


Which Team Will Have the First Penalty (Accepted or Enforced)? -- Packers -- Priced at + 115 (Hilton) -- Clearly there is no way to know in advance how the first few minutes of the game will unfold but it's reasonable to thing along the lines of there being a greater chance of holding penalties called on teams that are much more balanced towards the pass than towards the run. Green Bay has also had several heavily penalized games this season. Many of Pittsburgh's penalties have come on defense but on penalites that occur before play begins (false start, illegal procedure, etc.) the preference is to expect such penalties to occur less frequently on running plays than on passing plays so at the plus price this prop presents value.


First Score of Game Will Be ? -- Other Than a Touchdown is Priced at + 155 (Hilton) -- The thought process here is that with two top flight defenses the chances are for stops to be made on third downs, thus forcing field goals, espeically in the early "feeling out" stage of the game. While big plays could result in touchdowns, especially on first or second down plays, the overall play of both defenses and the fact that each team has had two weeks to prepare defensively to recognize offensive formations and tells, makes getting better than 3 to 2 on the prop worth taking. And there's always a small percentage chance that the first score could be a safety, though unlikely.


Clay Matthews Total Solo and Assisted Tackles -- OVER 4.5 -- Priced at + 150 (Hilton) -- Great players make great plays in the biggest of games and Matthews has quickly established himself as one of the premier linebackers in the league in just his second season. Though not posting overwhelming numbers he did top this total in 7 of 16 regular season games and in one of Green Bay's 3 Playoff games. His great football instincts suggest he will be well prepared for the Steelers and should have an impact on the contest. At the generous price this is an attractive prop even though the Steelers will be keeping an eye on him for every snap.


DUAL PROP -- Will Either Punter Have A Touchback? -- Pittsburgh' Kapinos "YES" -- Priced at + 125 (Hilton) -- Green Bay's Masthay "YES" -- Priced at + 180 (Hilton) -- In this type of dual prop we are expecting at least one of the two props to cash -- With 2 outstanding defenses we are likely to see an above average number of punts than in a typical NFL game. While both punters are capable of pinning the football deep inside opponent territory, the artificial surface often creates unusual bounces that prevent the coverage team from downing the football inside the 5 yards line. Since both teams play(ed) the majority of their games on natural grass they are less likely to be familiar with the nuances of the artificial surface which adds a little extra value to this prop.


Will Both Teams Make Field Goals of 33 Yards or Longer -- "YES" -- Priced at + 180 (Hilton) -- The thought behind this prop is again based on both defenses coming up big on third down when the opposing offense is within roughly the opponent's 16 to 35 yard lines which would create FG opportunities of roughly 33 to 52 yards. Field Goals of 50 yards or so might well be attempted because of the ideal conditions inside Cowboys Stadium. Rather than forcing a punt as might occur outdoors in "iffy" weather from the opponents' 30 to 35 yard lines both teams are more likely to have confidence that their kickers will be able to hit from those distances that are more questionable when games are played outdoors. Pittsburgh's Suisham took over for Reed after Game 9 and was 14 of 15 in FGs during the regular seaosn, including 8 made from 40 yards or longer (Long of 48) while Green Bay's Crosby made 22 of 28 attempts in the regular season including 8 FGs from 40-49 yards and 2 of 50 yards or more with a long of 56 yards.


DUAL PROP -- First Pass By Each QB Will Be ? -- INCOMPLETE -- Roethlisberger Priced at + 190, Rodgers Priced at +200 (Hilton) -- These are a pair of props we recommend almost every season. Although there have been some recent Super Bowls in which both quarterbacks did complete their first pass of the game this season's Super Bowl presents some unique circumstance that, in addition to opening drive nerves, could work to have at least QB toss an initial incompletion. Neither team has played a game in this new, huge stadium -- a stadium that is unlike any other. It may take some time getting accustomed to the views and sight lines on the field. Also, the crowd will be in excess of 100,000 making this by far the largest crowd either team will have played in front of. The fundamentals could suggest short, safe passes to open the game. But both defenses are aggressive and disruptive and the slick artificial surface -- played on for the first time by either team -- could also be an early mitigating factor.