Our Newsletters are made available to Subscribers in 3 ways --
1 -- Sent
by email
2 -- Accessed on our website
3 -- Sent through the US Mails
Subscribers
are able to take a Discount for non-US Mail delivery. When doing so we will not send
a hard copy of the Newsletter(s) through the US Mail and the subscriber will receive
the Newsletter(s) by email and have access on our website, both of which result in
immediate Tuesday night receipt and also allows for the priniting out of the Newsletter
on a home printer. We encourage subscribers to take advantage of the Non-US Mail
Discount as it lessens our workload and lowers our production costs of printing and
mailing as well.
The first issues of both our College & Pro Football
Newsletter and Trends & Tendencies Newsletter will be published on Tuesday, August
30, 2016 and should be available on our website by 11 PM Pacific time. The Newsletters
shall be surface-mailed and emailed at that same time and should be received by Thursday
by subscribers who have selected the U S Mail delivery option. This first issue of
the College & Pro Football Newsletter and the Trends & Tendencies Newsletter
shall cover the opening weekend of the college football season which begins on Thursday,
September 3.
The NFL Teaser inaugural issue will be mailed and available
online on Tuesday, September 6, 2016 and cover the opening week of the NFL season
that begins on Thursday, September 8.
Once the season begins you should be
able to access Newsletter(s) on our Website on Tuesdays generally by 11 PM Pacific
time.
Access Code(s) you'll need to access the Newsletters on our website
will be provided by email either in late August or at the time you subscribe, if
later.
Premium Selections are provided in two ways --
1 -- Email (Full Season, Monthly
and Weekly Subscribers)
2 -- Website Access (Full Season Subscribers Only)
Full
Season subscribers to the Premium Selection Service receive an Access Code to accessthe
selections on our website.
The Access Code is emailed in late August or at
the time you subscribe (if later) and is available only to Full Season subscribers
or subscribers who subscribe for the balance of the season if subscribing after the
season begins.
ALL subscribers (full season, monthly and weekly) receive the
selections by email, as described below..
Selections for Premium Selection Service subscribers will begin with the college
games on Thursday, September 1.
Selections will be posted on our website beginning
Monday, August 31 with finalized selections for games through Monday, September 7
posted and emailed by 6 PM Pacific time on Friday, September 4.
Our general
practice is to finalize all weekend selections (Saturday through Monday) by 6 PM
Pacific time on Friday afternoons. At that time the selections are emailed to all
subscribers and the posting on our website notes that the selections are complete
and final. In rare instances we may, in that email, indicate that additional selections
may be fortcoming by email over the weekend.
Please note that unlike many
sports services we don't wait until right before kick off to release our selections.
In
fact, our selections are released throughout the week and thus full season subscribers
(those with the Access Code) are encuraged to check frequently to see which, if any,
plays have been released prior to 6 PM on Fridays.
In this way you should
be able to get the best number available. It's been our experience over the years
that in games on which we have a selection any line movement is generally against
us (meaning the line move agrees with our selection) so getting our selections earlier
in the week is a definite benefit to our Full Season Premium Service subscribers.
In fact, the ONLY DIFFERENCE between being a FULL SEASON subscriber as opposed
to a MONTHLY/WEEKLY subscriber is that Full Season Subscribers are able to access
weekend selections before the final set of selections is emailed to ALL subscribers
on Friday afternoons.
In general, PREMIUM SELECTIONS on games being played on other than Saturday through
Monday will be posted on our website as early as possible in the week, with an email
sent to all subscribers generally about 24 hours before kickoff or, in some cases,
early in the morning on the day of the game.
Thus, if we have a selection
on a Thursday night game all subscribers will receive an email, usually on Wednesday
evening by 11 PM Pacific time, informing them of the selection. There may be times
when the email is sent on the morning of the day of the game, by 10 PM Pacific time.
Additionally,
if we have no premium selection on a non-weekend game, subscribers will be notified
of that fact. Thus if we have no selection for a Thursday night game an email shall
be sent so stating that fact so that subscribers are not left up in the air wondering
if there is, or is not, a selection.
Because our Newsletters are published
on Tuesday evenings the only time a non-weekend game becomes an issue is when there
is a game on a Tuesday. In such instances an email Alert shall be sent either on
Monday afternoon/evening or early in the day Tuesday advising subscribers as to the
status of that game for the Newsletter in question (usually only colleges may have
a Tuesday game so this Alert would apply to College & Pro Football Newsletter
and Trends & Tendencies Newsletter subscribers but not to NFL Teaser Newsletter
subscribers.)
All subscribers to one or more of our football Newsletters and/or our Premium
Selections services are entitled to receive our Over/Under Recommendations/Opinions
for all 32 NFL for season win Totals as part of their subscription. They are not
sold separately as the cost for the Recommendations would be greater than the cost
of a single Newsletter subscription.
An Access Code is required to access
the information on our website and that Code will be emailed to subscribers and purchasers.
Recommendations
and Opinions have begun to be released for the 2016 season with all Recommendations
and Opinions to be finalized by Labor Day, Monday, September 5.
In addition
to the Recommendations and Opinions (which have fared extremely well over the past
decade) there is a wealth of anlaytical information concerning teams that make the
Playoffs and how many wins are often needed to be a Playoff team or to be amongst
the league's worst teams.
Even if you do not play these season totals it
is highly recommended that you read the introductory material as it may assist you
in making futures wagers on teams to win Division Titles, Conference Championships
or the Super Bowl. That Article may be accessed by CLICKING
HERE.
HOW TO ACCESS THE NEWSLETTERS & PREMIUM SELECTIONS
STEP 1
-- Visit our website home page at www.thelogicalapproach.com
STEP 2
-- Scroll down the page and click on the button labeled "SUBSCRIBER SELECTIONS
& NEWSLETTERS"
FOR PREMIUM SELECTIONS & NFL SEASON TOTAL
WINS --
STEP 3 -- Scroll down the page and under PREMIUM SELECTION
SERVICES click on --
OPTION 1 -- 2016 NFL Over/Under Total Wins Recommendations
or
OPTION 2 -- Football Premium Selections for the 2016 Season
FOR
COLLEGE & PRO, NFL TEASER and TRENDS & TENDENCIES NEWSLETTERS --
STEP
3 -- Scroll down the page and under FOOTBALL NEWSLETTERS & STATISTICS
click on --
College & Pro Football Newsletter Current Issue or
NFL
Teaser Newsletter Current Issue or
Trends & Tendencies Newsletter Current
Issue
STEP 4 -- When prompted in a separate dialogue box, enter
your Access Code using ALL CAPITALS and no spaces.
If you enter
and incorrect Access Code, or enter your Access Code incorrectly, you will be given
the chance to go back and correct your entry. REMEMBER -- Your Code must be entered
in ALL CAPITALS and with no space such as in a sample code of ABC123.
Over the past year or so some subscribers have reported difficulty in accessing
Newsletter or Selection information on our website, reporting that when they try
to access an item that requires an Access Code instead of getting a request to enter
the Access Code they get a dialogue box that indicates an incorrect code has been
entered.
It appears that this problem has arisen for users of Internet Explorer
7. It has not been reported for versions 6 or lower of Internet Explorer. The problem
seems to revolve around certain security issues and a resolution that seems to have
worked in all such reported incidents is as follows.
STEP 1 -- While
connected to the internet have your browser open a "non-protected" page
on our website such as our home page at www.thelogicalapproach.com
STEP
2 -- Under the "TOOLS" tab at the top of your browser, click on "Internet
Options"
STEP 3 -- When the Internet Options box opens, click
on the "Security" tab
STEP 4 -- Click first on the "Trusted
Sites" option (directly under the green check mark) and then click on the button
labeled "Sites"
STEP 5 -- In the "Add this website to
the zone:" box it should say http://www.thelogicalapproach.com
STEP
6 -- Click "Add" and then uncheck the box that says "Require server
verification . . . . " and then click close
If you still have difficulty
accessing the Newsletter/Selections please call our offices at 702 - 898 - 9802 during
the hours of 9 AM to 5 PM Pacific time and we shall try to walk you through the process
and get this issue resolved.
There are no Newsletters publsihed for the NFL Preseason. The Schedule for Newsletter
publication begins with the first weekend of regular season games, as discussed above.
We
generally do not have recommended selections for NFL pre season games for Premium
Selection Service subscribers. The use of the word "generally" is chosen
since it is best to avoid using the words "always" and "never"
but in reality we have not had NFL Preseason selections in over 15 years.
These
games are really nothing more than exhibition games that don't count in the standings.
Although
coaches will never admit that they don't want to win games or that they don't try
to win games or say that winning is important in developing a positive attitude or
that they need to win preseason games to sell season tickets the realities indicate
otherwise.
If winning a preseason game were truly important then starters
would be played in the fourth quarter rather than the first. Aaron Rodgers would
brought back into a close game in the fourth quarter if the decision was in doubt,
or would play the fourth quarter rather than the first quarter.
But the reality
is that coaches realize these exhibition games are ‘free rolls' to evaluate personnel,
develop depth, monitor the development of new offensive and defensive schemes and
decide on starters and backups.
Wins don't count in the standings and losses
don't hurt you in the race for the Playoffs.
For the most part NFL exhibition
games are glorified scrimmages in front of 40,000 fans. Yet the public is fascinated
and intoxicated with the prospects of a new football season and rush to wager on
games that don't count. This is the same public that rarely bets, or even follows,
spring training baseball games or NBA exhibition games. Yet they are all the same
in that they don't count for anything other than allowing coaches to assess the progress
their teams are making as the start of the real season approaches.
Put another
way, you can probably recall the winners and losers of the last ten Super Bowls.
But can you name who had the best preseason records the past few seasons?
That
being stated there may be opportunities to profit during the preseason based upon
the progress that teams are making in their preparation for the regular season. Coaches
are more than willing to discuss what they shall emphasize in upcoming preseason
games including quarterback rotations, starting jobs up for grabs, how long the starters
will play, etc. Information is the key and that information is readily available
in local newspapers and on the Internet. But even armed with that information there
are no assurances your team will win. Keep an eye on games during this preseason.
Watch how often games are decided in the fourth quarter by players who won't even
be on the opening day rosters.
Developments shall be monitored during the
preseason and we may offer some thoughts on certain games from time to time. But
it is unlikely that there will be any playable recommendations/selections on a game
in which our objective is to cash a winning ticket but the coach's objective is to
evaluate talent.
Because we have several different Newsletters and a Premium Selection Service,
different ways of Rating and playing the selections are involved. Let's begin with
a basic discussion of money management principles and alternatives. We'll then discuss
how each Newsletter and the Premium Service rates the selections.
The key
to profits is successful money management. To succeed you must have a predefined
plan and the discipline to stick with that plan through the inevitable cycles of
a football season, both ups and downs. In order to be practical, the money management
method can't be too complicated. Thus there is some tradeoff between mathematical
precision and practicality of the method. Here are some thoughts we've found workable
in past seasons.
First and foremost we recommend that you set aside a specific
bankroll for football, an amount you expect to grow during the season but can afford
to see diminished if the fortunes of fate turn against us. In other words, don't
set aside the rent or food money for football!
Some players will have a single
bankroll for football. Others may one bankroll for college football and a second,
separate bankroll for the NFL. Still others may divide their overall bankroll into
separate bankrolls for Sides and Totals, some even going further and divvying up
their bankrolls into college sides, college totals, pro sides and pro totals. Find
a method that is comfortable for you and stick with that method throughout the season.
There
are two basic methods we recommend – percentage of bankroll method and flat amount
per unit method. In each case we prefer caution over aggressiveness in that we will
risk more when ahead and less when behind. Within each of these methods are three
sub-methods which relate to your own risk profile – conservative, moderate, or aggressive.
Let's explain.
Whether you subscribe to our Premium Selection Service, one
or more of our Newsletters, or a combination, all of our selections are rated according
to the degree of probability we assign to the selection. Naturally our Premium Selection
Service features only playable selections whereas our Newsletters provide a combination
of recommended plays and opinions. Within each format here's how we rate the selections:
Premium
Selection Service
These selections are rated as Single, Double or Triple plays
(sort of a 1 Star, 2 Star and 3 Star approach). Realistically, we expect only Single
and Double plays with the ratio of Singles to Doubles being roughly 75%/25%. Only
in a very rare instance can we foresee a Triple Play and we have not had a Triple
Play Premium Selection in more than 10 seasons.
College & Pro Newsletter
There
are four levels of selections for both college and pro side selections. We will select
four games each week to be written up and analyzed, designating one game as our top
College or Pro Game of the Week and the other three games as Featured Selections.
For the balance of the schedule we divide the selections into a ‘Best of the Rest'
category and ‘The Rest' category. In the pros we will also select a handful of games
and provide Over/Under (Totals) selections on these games.
The Top Game of
the Week can be viewed as a Triple Play Selection, the Featured Games are similar
to Double Play selections, the ‘Best of the Rest' are akin to Single Play Selections
and ‘The Rest' should be considered as leans or opinions only, rather than recommended
plays. The NFL Totals should be viewed as Single Play selections. Note that this
format allows us to offer a selection/opinion for every game on the Board.
NFL
Teaser Newsletter
Each NFL team is evaluated every week to determine whether
or not its profile suggests inclusion in a two team 6 point Teaser. The teams that
qualify are grouped into categories related to their expected level of success. Because
Teaser plays require a different approach than that which is used in conventional
side plays, our discussion of how to approach Teasers will be presented in the first
issue of this Newsletter.
Trends & Tendencies Newsletter
College
and Pro side selections are rated from a low of 1 Star to a high of 5 Stars for games
on which a technical play is recommended. You may view the scale as a five tiered
scale or you may view it as a three tiered scale with only the 3, 4 and 5 Star selections
being playable. In relating the Selectons to the above scale you might group the
5 and 4 Star Selections into the Triple Play category, 3 Star Selections as Double
Play Selections and the 2 and 1 Star selections into the Single Play category. Variations
on this theme might ignore the 1 and 2 Star selections entirely and use 5 Star =
Triple. 4 Star = Double and 3 Star = Single. Or Perhaps use the 5 Star = Triple,
4 and 3 Star = Double and 2 and 1 Star = Single or just 2 Star = Single and pass
on the 1 Star selections. Again, once you decide on a comfortable way of rating the
selections it is best to stick with that system throughout the season.
OK. Now let's take a look at a possible method of playing the recommended selections
based on the three profiles mentioned earlier in this letter. The three styles of
play are Conservative, Moderate and Aggressive. The two methods of play are Flat
Bet (i.e. set amount per Unit) and Percentage of Bankroll (constant percentage applied
to a varying bankroll which produces a varying bet amount).
. Conservative Moderate Aggressive
============ ============ ============
Flat % BR Flat % BR Flat % BR
===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Single Play 1.0 Unit 1.5 % 1.0 Unit 2.5 % 1.0 Unit 3.0 %
Double Play 2.0 Units 3.0 % 2.5 Units 5.0 % 3.0 Units 6.0 %
Triple Play 3.0 Units 5.0 % 5.0 Units 7.5 % 5.0 Units 10.0 %
Yet another way of play is to take a certain amount (say, $1000) or a certain
percentage of your bankroll (say, 30%) and put it into action each week, allocating
that amount over all of our selections, weighted by strength of play.
Thus
if we have 12 selections, which may equate to 15 Plays based upon the Single, Double
and Triple Play ratings, you would spread the amount in action over the 15 plays.
Assume 9 Single Plays and 3 Double Plays for a Total of 15 ‘Playable Units'. If you
set aside $1,500 for a given weekend you would play $200 on each Double Play and
$100 on each Single Play. If your percentage of bankroll method calls for 30% of
your bankroll to be in action for a given week, you'd play 4% on each of the Double
Plays and 2% on each Single Play.
Here's how we'd assign the percentages based
on style of play:
. Conservative Moderate Aggressive
================ ================ ================
25 % of Bankroll 33 % of Bankroll 40 % of Bankroll
Obviously we can't provide similar recommendations for Flat Bets since it is an
amount with which such players feel comfortable.
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