LOGICAL APPROACH
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2010
TRENDS & TENDENCIES NEWSLETTER
| Issue # 1 |
Games through September 6, 2010 |
Greetings.
Welcome to the inaugural issue of our Trends & Tendencies Newsletter for the
2010 season. Each week we shall present the strongest plays in both college and pro
football according to our technical indicators of success or failure vs. the pointspread.
NFL games will be covered each week, sides and totals, plus side selections in most
college games. We've kept the same format we've been using for the past several seasons.
Prior to 1994 only games rated 3 Stars or higher in the colleges were covered. This
season we again present all rated selections including the 1 and 2 Star plays. College
games for which there are no selections will not be listed nor will NFL games in
the Over/Under section when there is no play, although all NFL games will be listed
(including No Selections) in the Sides section.
Sometimes we will have 'No Selection' for some
NFL games where there are no pointspread tendency edges. The primary source of data
for our college and pro selections is our 2010 Pointspread Encyclopedia. We also
use some of our private, unpublished research in making our technical selections.
The premise behind the use of so-called Trends
and Angles is that they are a reflection of public perception. Pointspread
results indicate whether the public overrates or underrates a team, or teams, in
specific situations that are recurring. Pointspread results are not reflections of
the team itself but rather how the public has historically perceived that
team. That is, a team with a winning record vs. the pointspread has overachieved
versus the linesmaker's expectations -- they have exceeded what has been expected
of them. Such teams can be considered to have been underrated since they've exceeded
what was expected of them. Conversely, teams that have losing records vs. the line
have failed to meet expectations and can be said to have been overrated by the public.
We recognize that reliance on such data represents
just one facet of a complete handicapping program. Fundamental matchups,
statistics, emotional edges, other intangibles, etc. must each be considered when
handicapping any game. Yet there has historically been great success in relying on
a team's 'Pointspread Personality' in making selections. Thus while our overall analysis
might lead us to pass games that are selections in this Newsletter, or perhaps even
reverse direction in some instances (usually limited to selections that appear as
just 1 Star or 2 Star selections)
the
Selections presented in this Newsletter are designed to answer the question of "Given
a team's historical pointspread performances and their correlation to how these teams
are perceived by the public, which team in a game has the more favorable set of conditions
conducive to pointspread success?"
Before kicking off the 2010 season with our
trend selections for the first week's rather full college schedule, let's explain
our weekly format.
All selections are graded on a scale from 1
Star to 5 Stars, with 5 Stars being the top rated plays. NFL selections will be given
for all games, unless there are no net pointspread edges in which case we'll indicate
a recommendation for a PASS on that particular side or total. If we have no selection
on a particular college game it is because neither side has the historical tendency
advantage.
As to
money management we'd recommend a percentage of bankroll method that increases the
amount per Star. Separate bankrolls for colleges, pro sides and pro totals are also
recommended. The following percentages would be reasonable for each Star level:
| College Selections | NFL Sides & Totals | |
| 1 Star | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| 2 Star | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| 3 Star | 3.0% | 4.5% |
| 4 Star | 5.0% | 6.0% |
| 5 Star | 7.5% | 7.5% |
We expect that over the course of the season there
will be fewer 5 Star selections than 4 Star selections, fewer 4 Star selections than
3 Stars, etc. Likewise, we expect the higher rated Selections will have a higher
winning percentage at the end of the season.
As a practical matter there may be too many games to
consider playing all of the ones that qualify as 1 Star or higher, as in many weeks
as many as 45 or more games may come up as playable/rated. Historical performance
has shown that weighting and playing the 4 and 5 Star selections equally (at a Single
Unit each) and the 3 Stars (at a half unit each) produces favorable results. As stated
above Trend/Situational/Angle handicapping is but ONE aspect of a sound handicapping
methodology and as such the lower rated 1 and 2 Star selections may best be used
as leans to either support or contradict selections on games to which other handicapping
fundamentals apply.
With the preliminaries out of the way, let's get to
the opening weekend's selections for college football.
College Selections for September 2 - 6, 2010
| 5 Star | None | |
| 4 Star | FLORIDA over Miami Ohio | OREGON over New Mexico |
| 3 Star | OHIO STATE over Marshall [1] | UAB over Florida Atlantic [1] |
| Purdue over NOTRE DAME | OKLAHOMA ST over Washington St | |
| ALABAMA over San Jose St | CLEMSON over North Texas | |
| 2 Star | SOUTH CAROLINA over Southern Miss [1] | MIDDLE TENNESSEE over Minnesota [1] |
| TOLEDO over Arizona [2] | Missouri over Illinois [5] | |
| Texas over RICE | Ucla over KANSAS ST | |
| BYU over Washington | Army over EASTERN MICHIGAN | |
| NEBRASKA over Western Kentucky | AUBURN over Arkansas St | |
| EAST CAROLINA over Tulsa [3] | ||
| 1 Star | Northern Illinois over IOWA STATE [1] | Pittsburgh over UTAH [1] |
| MICHIGAN ST over Western Michigan | MISSISSIPPI ST over Memphis | |
| Kentucky over LOUISVILLE | Syracuse over AKRON | |
| Utah State over OKLAHOMA | Tcu over Oregon State [6] | |
| UL Lafayette over GEORGIA | TROY STATE over Bowling Green | |
| Navy over Maryland [4][7] | Boise State over Virginia Tech [4][8] |
NOTE: All college
games are played on Saturday, September 4 except as noted as follows -
[1] Thursday, September 2 [2] Friday, September 3 [3] Sunday, September 4
[4] Monday, September 6 [5] at St Louis, MO [6] at Arlington, TX
[7] at Baltimore,
MD [8] at Landover, MD
Note that in certain
matchups we will have a selection that requires the selected team to be in a specific
role (such as requiring a team to be an Underdog). If the specified conditions are
not met, then you have a No Play. Often these specifications will be given when the
line is close to 'pick em' and might flip flop during the week.
Where no specifications
are given it is generally because the line won't cause a favorite/underdog shift
or the team would qualify in either role.
Now let's take
a look at how the NFL Selections for Sides and Over/Unders will be presented each
week once the regular season gets under way:
NFL Side Selections for September 2 - 6, 2010
| 5 Star Selections | |
| 4 Star Selections | Selections for Week One |
| 3 Star Selections | will be available |
| 2 Star Selections | next Issue |
| 1 Star Selections | |
| No Selections |
NFL OVER/UNDER Selections for September 2 - 6, 2010
| 5 Star Selections | |
| 4 Star Selections |
Selections for Week One |
| 3 Star Selections |
will be available next Issue |
| 2 Star Selections | |
| 1 Star Selections |
There will usually be more
Side plays than Over/Under plays in the NFL. Don't try to force any plays. There
will be plenty of opportunities for Totals play as the season progresses.
Good luck and we'll see
you next week with a full card of college and pro football action.
NOTE:
All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated,
HOME TEAMS are in CAPS.
NOTE:
ALL MATERIAL IS PROVIDED AS NEWS MATTER ONLY AND IS NOT TO BE USED IN VIOLATION OF
ANY FEDERAL, STATE OR LOCAL LAW(S).