LOGICAL APPROACH

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2010 NFL TEASER NEWSLETTER

Issue # 7

Games of October 24 - 25, 2010

F A S T F A C T S

Results through 90 Games		Last Week		Season-to-Date	Pct.
Two Way Teaser Winners (6 Pushes)		8		32 of 90	35.6%
Pointspread Mattered (4 Pushes)		2		13 of 90	14.4%
Games Decided by 21 or more points		2		16 of 90	17.8%
Games Decided by 4 or fewer points (or by TD in OT)		8		30 of 90	33.3%
OVERS - UNDERS - PUSHES		8- 6 - 0		47- 42 - 1

T E A S E R R E C A P B Y C A T E G O R Y

Category	Last Week	Season	Pct.	Category	Last Week	Season	Pct.
Superior	0 - 0 - 0	0 - 0 - 0	---	Very Good	1 - 0 - 0	11 - 2 - 0	85%
Outstanding	0 - 0 - 0	1 - 2 - 0	33%	Marginal	2 - 0 - 0	6 - 3 - 0	67%
Excellent	2 - 0 - 0	8 - 2 - 0	80%	TOTALS	5 - 0 - 0	26 - 9 - 0	74%

REVIEW OF TEASER STRATEGIES

	Teams - Week	YTD	Teasers - Week	YTD
Top 2 Teams	2 - 0	9 - 3	1 - 0	3 - 3
Top 5 Teams	5 - 0	23 - 6	10 - 0	36 - 20
All Marginal or better teams, up to 10 max	5 - 0	26 - 9	10 - 0	50 - 42

R E V I E W O F L A S T W E E K

Last week's results were a perfect 5-0 in a week that saw 8 of the 14 games have both teams cover in a Teaser and another game in which one side (Green Bay) Pushed in a Teaser. Both of our Excellent teams, Indianapolis and Miami were Teaser winners as was our lone Very Good team, Minnesota. And both of our Marginal teams, New England and Washington, also came through in Teasers.

Each season we try to educate our readers by sharing with them some additional strategies that can be used with your regular Teaser play to enhance your enjoyment of Teasers while increasing the potential for both overall profit and total return. Once such strategy is a hedging strategy involving 'middles.' Before getting to the specifics of the strategy let's explain a few terms. A 'hedge' is merely a way to protect profits already won (or to limit losses already incurred) by playing opposite the side of team in which we have already invested. A 'middle' is a situation that enables us to not only utilize a hedge play, but to also increase our profits at the same time. Normally, a 'middle' is thought of in straight wager terms in that you might make a play on a Favorite at -2 ½ and then take the Underdog at + 3 ½ and hope that the Favorite wins by exactly 3 points - in which case you would cash BOTH tickets. A similar strategy can be used in Teasers for two main reasons. First, there are two teams involved and once the result of one of the games is known it may be possible to take action to lock in a certain gain or loss depending on one of several outcomes. Secondly, this strategy utilizes a straight play on a team which means the line will be in the vicinity of 6 points different from the open position being protected and that makes this kind of hedge especially attractive and potentially lucrative.

In our next installment we'll outline how the basic strategy works but in general terms it involves making a straight play on a team that is yet to play and is the opponent of a team you have in a Teaser in which the first half of the Teaser has already been successful. In most cases this will involve playing one of the teams involved in the Sunday night or Monday night game. Thus if we have a Teaser in which the first half has already covered and the second half is playing in the Sunday night game, we'd play the other side. Let's assume Denver is at Buffalo on Monday night and Buffalo is a 7 point favorite. Assume we have Buffalo teased down to - 1 in a Teaser with Atlanta and further assume that Atlanta has already covered their half of the Teaser on Sunday afternoon. The hedge involves making a straight play on Denver at + 7. The middle comes into play should Buffalo win by from 1 to 7 points. This is from where we will continue next week.

Now, let's turn our attention to week 7. Here are this week's qualified Teaser teams:

T E A S E R Q U A L I F I E R S W E E K 7

SUPERIOR	None
OUTSTANDING	None
EXCELLENT	Minnesota, MIAMI
VERY GOOD	CHICAGO, New England, BALTIMORE
MARGINAL	SAN DIEGO, Washington
RISKY	TENNESSEE, Arizona

Two games shows the potential for being 'Two Way Teaser' winners this week:

Washington at Chicago New England at San Diego

A total of 7 teams qualify as Marginal or better this week which means a full 7 team round robin would produce a total of 21 Teasers. Eliminating the 2 Marginal teams and doing a 5 team round robin using the 2 Excellent teams and the 3 Very Good teams would yield a total of 10 Teasers. An alternative would be to use the 2 Excellent teams with each other and then tie each of them into either the 5 Very Good/Marginal teams or just the 3 Very Good teams which would yield a total of either 11 or 7 Teasers.

Good luck and we'll see you next week.

NOTE: ALL MATERIAL IS PRESENTED AS NEWS MATTER ONLY AND IS NOT TO BE USED IN VIOLATION OF ANY FEDERAL, STATE OR LOCAL LAW(S).