LOGICAL APPROACH
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2009
NFL TEASER NEWSLETTER
| Issue # 11 |
Games through November 23, 2009 |
F A S T . . . F A C T S
| Results through 144 Games | Last Week | Season-to-Date | Pct. | ||
| Two Way Teaser Winners (5 Pushes) | 5 | 45 of 144 | 31.3% | ||
| Pointspread Mattered (2 Pushes) | 3 | 25 of 144 | 21.9% | ||
| Games Decided by 21 or more points | 1 | 32 of 144 | 22.2% | ||
| Games Decided by 4 or fewer points | 4 | 33 of 144 | 22.9% | ||
| OVERS - UNDERS - PUSHES | 8- 6 - 1 | 73- 68 - 3 |
T E A S E R . . . R E C A P . . . B Y . . . C A T E G O R Y
| Category | Last Week | Season |
Pct. | Category |
Last Week | Season |
Pct. |
| Superior |
0 - 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 - 0 | --- | Very Good | 1 - 0 - 0 | 13 - 5 - 0 | 72% |
| Outstanding | 0 - 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 - 0 | --- | Marginal | 2 - 0 - 0 | 16 - 7 - 1 | 70% |
| Excellent | 1 - 0 - 0 | 9 - 1 - 0 | 90% | TOTALS | 4 - 0 - 0 | 38 - 13 - 1 | 75% |
REVIEW . . . OF . . . TEASER . . . STRATEGIES
| Teams - Week | YTD | Teasers - Week | YTD | |
| Top 2 Teams | 2 - 0 | 18 - 2 | 1 - 0 | 8 - 2 |
| Top 5 Teams | 4 - 0 | 34 - 10 - 1 | 6 - 0 | 45 - 27- 4 |
| All Marginal or better teams, up to 10 max | 4 - 0 | 34 - 13 - 1 | 6 - 0 | 61 - 64 - 5 |
|
R E V I E W O F L A S T W E E K |
Last week was a perfect
week for our qualified Teaser teams even though the number of such teams was again
limited. All four teams came through with our lone Excellent team, Chicago, coming
through on Thursday. On Sunday night our lone Very Good team, Indianapolis, was a
Teaser winner while earlier in the day both of our Marginal teams, Arizona and Minnesota,
were each Teaser winners.
Continuing with our hedging
analysis we ended last week by referring to the historical percentages that show
roughly 68% of all teams covering in a two team 6 point Teaser. Looking at the results
for 2009 we can see from the above chart that just 31.3% (45 games) of the 144 games
played so far have had both teams cover in a Teaser, with 5 games ending with one
of the teams pushing in a Teaser.
Looking at the data in terms of overall sides success, 15.6% of the teams (45 of 288) failed to cover the regular pointspread but did cover with an additional 6 points, making for 65.6% of all teams having covered in Teasers thus far this season, which is below the historical rate of 68-69%. Put another way, on any given weekend we can expect between 5 and 6 games to feature both teams covering in a Teaser.
We can therefore conclude
that, on the blind, we have a one in three chance in being successful in our Monday
night hedging strategy. The actual chances of hitting the hedge can be modified by
looking at how frequently both sides cover a Teaser in the Monday night game and
also by looking at how teams do in various pointspread ranges in covering Teasers
in general. We presented those pointspread range breakdowns a few issues ago. Next
week we'll present our annual mid-season Teaser review.
However, let's share the
stats for the current 2009 season for Sunday night and Monday night football which
are the most likely games to be used as Teaser hedges. Through the first 10 weeks
of this season, 6 of 11 Monday night games have featured both teams covering in a
Teaser with another 1 Monday night game featuring one of the teams Pushing with the
added 6 points. Of the 9 Sunday night games played (none was played in week 8 so
as to not conflict with the World Series), 5 of the games have had both teams cover
in a Teaser. Thus, the totals for Sunday night and Monday night for 2009 show 11
cases of both teams covering in a Teaser, 8 instances of a cover/no cover result
and 1 game in which we had a cover and a push.
In a few weeks we will
begin our annual look at the differences between playing 6 vs 6 ½ vs 7 point Teasers.
Now,
let's turn our attention to week eleven. Here are this week's qualified Teaser teams:
T E A S E R . . . Q U A L I F I E R S . . . W E E K . . . 11
| SUPERIOR | None |
| OUTSTANDING | None |
| EXCELLENT | Indianapolis, CHICAGO |
| VERY GOOD | None |
| MARGINAL | BALTIMORE, N Y Jets |
| RISKY | San Diego, HOUSTON (Monday), Miami (Thursday), Tennessee (Monday), NEW ENGLAND, Arizona, MINNESOTA |
Three games show the potential
for being a 'Two Way Teaser' winner this week:
Indianapolis at Baltimore
N Y Jets at New England Tennessee at Houston
Just four teams qualify
as Marginal or better this week despite the end of the Byes and a full schedule of
games being played. Remember, the premise behind the selections is an evaluation
of a team's current and historical performance in a variety of situations. We never
know in advance which teams, or how many teams, will qualify in a given week and
we never "force" teams into playable categories. Thus, for this week, a
full 4 team round robin would produce a total of just 6 two-team Teasers. An alternative
method of play would involve using the 2 Excellent teams with one another and then
tying each of the Excellent teams into each of the two Marginal teams, yielding a
total of 5 Teasers.
Good luck and we'll see
you next week.
NOTE: ALL MATERIAL IS PRESENTED AS NEWS MATTER
ONLY AND IS NOT TO BE USED IN VIOLATION OF ANY FEDERAL, STATE OR LOCAL LAW(S).