LOGICAL APPROACH
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2008
NFL TEASER NEWSLETTER
| Issue # 4 |
Games through September 29, 2008 |
F A S T F A C T S
| Results through 47 Games | Last Week | Season-to-Date | Pct. | ||
| Two Way Teaser Winners (1 Push) | 3 | 13 of 47 | 27.7% | ||
| Pointspread Mattered (2 Pushes) | 3 | 6 of 47 | 12.8% | ||
| Games Decided by 21 or more points | 3 | 10 of 47 | 21.3% | ||
| Games Decided by 4 or fewer points | 5 | 14 of 47 | 29.8% | ||
| OVERS - UNDERS - PUSHES | 11- 5 | 27- 21 - 1 |
T E A S E R R E C A P B Y C A T E G O R Y
| Category | Last Week | Season |
Pct. | Category |
Last Week | Season |
Pct. |
| Superior |
0 - 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 - 0 | --- | Very Good | 1 - 0 - 0 | 3 - 0 - 0 | 100% |
| Outstanding | 1 - 0 - 0 | 1 - 1 - 0 | 50% | Marginal | 2 - 2 - 0 | 5 - 3 - 0 | 63% |
| Excellent | 0 - 2 - 0 | 2 - 5 - 0 | 29% | TOTALS | 4 - 4 - 0 | 11 - 9 - 0 | 55% |
REVIEW OF TEASER STRATEGIES
| Teams - Week | YTD | Teasers - Week | YTD | |
| Top 2 Teams | 1 - 1 | 2 - 3 | 0 - 1 | 0 - 3 |
| Top 5 Teams | 3 - 2 | 8 - 7 | 3 - 7 | 7 - 23 |
| All Marginal or better teams, up to 10 max | 4 - 4 | 11 - 9 | 6 - 22 | 15 - 43 |
|
R E V I E W O F L A S T W E E K |
It's been a rough start
to the 2008 season but as we stated last week, we've overcome such starts in the
past. Last week was disappointing even though our lone Outstanding team, Seattle,
was an easy winner in Teaser play. But both Excellent teams, Indianapolis and Carolina,
both came up short, each by a point. Our lone Very Good team, San Diego, was a Teaser
winner. Our four Marginal teams split out with Washington and Miami being Teaser
winners but the New York Jets and Green Bay not coming through.
In a few weeks we shall
begin our discussion of a hedging technique that can help protect existing winnings
while creating the possibility for a massive weekly win through the use of "middles."
We had planned to present some historical data concerning how the categories we chart above have done over the years. But we'll delay that until next week in order to bring you historical team Teaser information.
We use historical Teaser
performances as the basis for making our weekly Teaser Selections. Over the years
we have fine tuned the process to make this essentially a mechanical exercise but
the selections are all based on the past 6 season of results broken down into various
categories and situations. Each year we present an overview of how all tams have
done overall in 6 point Teasers over the previous 6 seasons. Here is the data for
the 32 NFL teams in 6 point Teasers from 2002 through 2007.
| Team | Record (Pct) | Team | Record (Pct) | Team | Record (Pct) | ||
| Arizona | 61-33-2 (64%) | Green Bay | 67-27-2 (70%) | Oakland | 60-33-3 (63%) | ||
| Atlanta | 61-33-2 (64%) | Houston | 62-33-1 (65%) | Philadelphia | 70-21-5 (73%) | ||
| Baltimore | 68-27-1 (71%) | Indianapolis | 73-22-1 (76%) | Pittsburgh | 62-32-2 (65%) | ||
| Buffalo | 64-30-2 (67%) | Jacksonville | 69-24-3 (72%) | St Louis | 55-40-1 (57%) | ||
| Carolina | 64-31-1 (67%) | Kansas City | 65-29-2 (68%) | San Diego | 71-23-2 (74%) | ||
| Chicago | 70-23-3 (73%) | Miami | 65-27-4 (68%) | San Francisco | 57-39-0 (59%) | ||
| Cincinnati | 63-32-1 (66%) | Minnesota | 62-30-4 (65%) | Seattle | 69-25-2 (72%) | ||
| Cleveland | 67-28-1 (70%) | New England | 71-24-1 (74%) | Tampa Bay | 63-31-2 (66%) | ||
| Dallas | 61-33-2 (64%) | New Orleans | 60-35-1 (63%) | Tennessee | 65-31-0 (68%) | ||
| Denver | 60-34-2 (63%) | N Y Giants | 60-34-2 (63%) | Washington | 67-27-2 (70%) | ||
| Detroit | 62-33-1 (65%) | N Y Jets | 72-21-3 (75%) |
Now,
let's turn our attention to week four. Here are this week's qualified teams:
T E A S E R Q U A L I F I E R S W E E K 4
| SUPERIOR | None |
| OUTSTANDING | None |
| EXCELLENT | None |
| VERY GOOD | CHICAGO |
| MARGINAL | Green Bay, San Diego |
| RISKY | N Y JETS, Minnesota, OAKLAND, JACKSONVILLE |
Just one game shows the
potential for being 'Two Way Teaser' winners this week:
San Diego at Oakland
With 6 teams having Byes
this week the number of qualified teams has decreased dramatically so that just 3
teams qualify as Marginal or better, the lowest number of weekly qualified teams
in over 20 seasons of publishing this Newsletter. A 3 team round robin would produce
a total of just 3 Teasers while tying the lone Very Good team to each of the 2 Marginal
teams would yield just 2 Teasers in all. We never try to force teams to qualify for
play whether we are running 'hot,' 'cold' or neutral. We just let the system run
as it always has.
Good luck, and we'll see
you next week.
NOTE: ALL MATERIAL IS PRESENTED AS NEWS MATTER ONLY AND IS NOT TO BE USED IN VIOLATION OF ANY FEDERAL, STATE OR LOCAL LAW(S).