LOGICAL APPROACH
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2007
NFL TEASER NEWSLETTER
| Issue # 11 |
Games through November 19, 2007 |
|
FAST | FACTS |
| Results through 144 Games | Last Week | Season-to-Date | Pct. | ||
| Two Way Teaser Winners (5 Pushes) | 2 | 47 of 144 | 32.6% | ||
| Pointspread Mattered (7 Pushes) | 1 | 22 of 144 | 15.3% | ||
| Games Decided by 21 or more points | 2 | 31 of 144 | 21.5% | ||
| Games Decided by 4 or fewer points | 3 | 39 of 144 | 27.1% | ||
| OVERS - UNDERS - PUSHES | 7- 7 - 0 | 70- 73 - 1 |
| TEASER | RECAP | BY | CATEGORY |
| Category | Last Week | Season |
Pct. | Category |
Last Week | Season |
Pct. |
| Superior |
1 - 0 - 0 | 1 - 0 - 0 | 100% | Very Good | 0 - 0 - 0 | 16 - 4 - 1 | 80% |
| Outstanding | 0 - 0 - 0 | 4 - 2 - 0 | 67% | Marginal | 2 - 2 - 0 | 9 -10 - 1 | 47% |
| Excellent | 3 - 1 - 0 | 14 -10 - 0 | 58% | TOTALS | 6 - 3 - 0 | 44 - 26 - 2 | 63% |
REVIEW OF TEASER STRATEGIES
| Teams - Week | YTD | Teasers - Week | YTD | |
| Top 2 Teams | 1 - 1 | 11 - 9 | 0 - 1 | 3 - 7 |
| Top 5 Teams | 4 - 1 | 31 - 18 - 1 | 6 - 4 | 38 - 58 |
| All Marginal or better teams, up to 10 max | 6 - 3 | 43 - 36 - 2 | 15 - 21 | 88 - 129 |
| REVIEW | OF | LAST | W E E K |
Last
week was an improvement over the previous two weeks with 6 of our 9 qualified teams
coming through in Teaser play, topped by our first Superior qualifier of this season,
San Diego. There were no Outstanding teams last week but 3 of our 4 Excellent teams
came through as Philadelphia, Jacksonville and Miami were all Teaser winners but
Baltimore came up short. The were no Very Good teams last week but our 4 Marginal
teams split out with Green Bay and Seattle Teaser winners but Kansas City and Detroit
on the short end.
Continuing with
our hedging analysis we ended last week by referring to the historical percentages
that show roughly 68% of all teams covering in a two team 6 point Teaser. Looking
at the results for 2007 we can see from the above chart that 32.6% (47 games) of
the 144 games played so far have had both teams cover in a Teaser, with 5 games ending
with one team pushing in a Teaser. This is down significantly, by 10 games, over
the number at this point of the season in 2005 but in line with each of the prior
two seasons (2004 & 2003) and with last season. Recall that 2005 was unusual
in the very high percentage of covering favorites.
Looking at the data in terms of overall sides success, 16.3% of all teams (47 of 288) failed to cover the regular pointspread but did cover with an additional 6 points, making for 66.3% of all teams having covered in Teasers thus far this season, somewhat below the historical rate of 68-69%. Put another way, on any given weekend we can expect between 5 and 6 games to feature both teams covering in a Teaser.
We can therefore
conclude that, on the blind, we have a one in three chance in being successful in
our Monday night hedging strategy. The actual chances of hitting the hedge can be
modified by looking at how frequently both sides cover a Teaser in the Monday night
game and also by looking at how teams do in various pointspread ranges in covering
Teasers in general. We presented those pointspread range breakdowns a few issues
ago. Next week we'll present our annual mid-season Teaser review.
However, let's
share the stats for the current 2007 season for Sunday and Monday night football.
Through the first 10 weeks of this season, just 2of 11 Monday night games have featured
both teams covering in a Teaser. Coincidentally BOTH came in week one when there
was a Monday night doubleheader. Of the 9 Sunday night games played (none was played
in week 8 so as to not conflict with World Series Game 4), also only 2 of the games
have had both teams cover in a Teaser (the second came this past Sunday night when
the Colts covered in a Teaser against San Diego by a half point). This is most unusual
in terms of historical results and we can reasonably conclude that over the second
half of the season we are likely to see more games play closer to the line than away
from it.
In a few weeks
we will begin our annual look at the differences between playing 6 vs 6 ½ vs 7 point
Teasers.
Now,
let's turn our attention to week 11. Here are this week's qualified teams:
| TEASER | QUALIFIERS | WEEK | 11 |
| SUPERIOR | None |
| OUTSTANDING | N Y JETS |
| EXCELLENT | San Diego, Chicago |
| VERY GOOD | JACKSONVILLE, New England, BALTIMORE |
| MARGINAL | CINCINNATI, SEATTLE, Miami, PHILADELPHIA |
| RISKY | GREEN BAY |
Three games show the potential
for being a 'Two Way Teaser' winner this week -
San Diego at Jacksonville
Miami at Philadelphia Chicago at Seattle
Using all 10 teams qualified
as Marginal or better in a round robin of all possible two team Teasers would result
in a total of 45 Teasers. Eliminating the 4 Marginal teams and using just the 6 teams
rated Very Good or better in a round robin would give us a total of 15 Teasers. Using
the 3 Outstanding/Excellent teams in a round robin with one another and also tying
each of them to either the 7 Very Good/Marginal teams or just the 3 Very Good teams
would produce a total of either 24 or 12 Teasers.
Good luck, and we'll see
you next week.
NOTE: ALL MATERIAL IS PRESENTED AS NEWS MATTER ONLY AND IS NOT TO BE USED IN VIOLATION OF ANY FEDERAL, STATE OR LOCAL LAW(S).