In recent years the number of propositions available on the Super Bowl has grown geometrically. Unfortunately, for the purposes of being able to make uniform recommendations, there is absolutely no uniformity whatsoever amongst the various Sports Books here in Las Vegas or elsewhere. It seems that every Sports Book has their own unique propositions and those that are 'the same' or 'similar' to props elsewhere often are priced very differently. Thus it is very difficult to recommend specific propostions and our policy has been to set forth some of the propositions available in Las Vegas that seem to be most attractive.

Fortunately, however, this lack of uniformity when it comes to making plays on the props is a good thing as the more options and variations that are available, the better it is for the bettor (pun intended).

And that lack of uniformity also opens up the possibilities for "middling" some of the props, although many of those opportunities are quickly grabbed by the professional syndicates.

We certainly encourage those of you who are considering specific propostions and want our feedback to email the propositions to us and we shall respond with some thoughts of the prop. Obviously the sooner you can do this, the better, but we will try to respond to all such requests in a timely fashion as late as possible into Sunday morning.

Please email your questions/requests to us at --

logical7@cox.net

Enjoy the game.

We begin with an Overview of Props (taken from our Newsletter, Issue # 23) and then a look at some propositions that have value and merit to them.

One of the features that adds enjoyment to the Super Bowl is the annual POP to which we are treated. That's the Plethora Of Propositions that enable bettors to have action on virtually every play of the game. In fact, several Sports Books even offer a proposition related to the coin toss so it's possible to have action even BEFORE the game kicks off! (It's often phrased as "which team will receive the opening kickoff").

The 1985 Bears are considered by most observers to be one of the best teams of all time, especially when it comes to their defense, coached by Buddy Ryan, father of New York Jets coach Rex Ryan. The offense was more than capable, led by QB Jim McMahon and one of the top three running backs of all time, the late, great Walter Payton.

But the most important player in that game -- responsible for the birth of an entirely new industry that has experienced tremendous growth in the years since and continues to grow and flourish today -- was defensive lineman William "the Refrigerator"" Perry.

During that season that saw the Bears start 12-0 and threatening the perfect season accomplished by the Miami Dolphins 13 seasons earlier it was a loss in game 13 at Miami that derailed that quest and would be the only blemish in what would be an 18-1 season. Prior to the Super Bowl both of Chicago's Playoff wins were shutouts. At times during the season coach Mike Ditka would pair Perry in the backfield with Payton.

Because the Bears favored by 10 points in Super Bowl XX over New England with virtually everyone expecting a rout, several sports books came up with the novel idea of offering bets on whether or not Perry would score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Thus was born the modern era of the proposition bet. And although the books lost money on that prop as Perry indeed did plunge into the end zone during the game (which, as memory recalls, was bet down from around 15 or 20 to 1 to about 4 or 5 to 1) it was the start of what has annually become a betting event as big as -- or perhaps bigger -- than the game itself.

National and even international attention is focused on the many ways one can wager on the Super Bowl. Back in the early 1990's the Imperial Palace was the most innovative author of props under Kirk Brooks and Jay Kornegay. When Kornegay moved to the Las Vegas Hilton (now known as the LVH) it became the industry leader in prop bets and continues to offer hundreds of ways in which bettors can have action on virtually every play of the game. In fact, it's possible to have action even before kickoff as a wager related to the coin toss is available (often phrased as which team will receive the opening kickoff). The release of the Hilton's double digit pages of props is an eagerly awaited event as the Super Bowl approaches and now most, if not all, of the sports books have some sort of prop offerings. This year's "packet" consists of 24+ pages (8 ½ by 14 inch) loaded with all sorts of props.

Although the Super Bowl may be the most heavily bet game of the year it's generally not the most bettable game of the year. So much is known about both teams and so much attention is paid to almost every angle that most of the wagering possibilities may involve the many propositions that will be posted at the sports books in town, rather than just on the team to cover or whether the game will go Over or Under the total. Many of the ‘props' are innovative and entertaining and are designed to provide action throughout the game. It is literally possible to have action on every single play of the Super Bowl if you play enough of the props.

As noted above, much of the success of "prop" wagering dates back to Chicago's appearance in Super Bowl XX in January 1986 when the Bears were heavily favored over New England. But one special wager was offered -- will Chicago defensive lineman William "Refrigerator" Perry score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Then Bears coach Mike Ditka had used Perry several times in the backfield, teaming with the great Walter Payton. Because of the lopsided pointspread in the game, novel ways to attract action were considered. As memory serves, the "Yes" was originally priced in the neighborhood of roughly 15 to 1 that Perry would score a TD. The novelty of such a unique wagering proposition caused an overwhelming number of bettors to take a flyer on that prop. At kickoff the odds had fallen to the vicinity of 4 or 5 to 1 and, sure enough, Perry did score a touchdown in the Bears' 46-10 rout of the Patriots. While the books lost money on that specific prop, it wound up serving as a "loss leader" as props won a huge following. Over the past 25 + years one of most anticipated events of the time between the Conference Title games and the Super Bowl is the release of the many props that can be wagered upon. From what used to be a page or two the offerings at some books fill more than a dozen double sided long sheets. Not only are there props involving the two teams in the game, some creative bookmakers offer props that tie certain events in the Super Bowl to other sports being played over Super Bowl weekend, both within the US and internationally.

Let's share some thoughts on the multitude of propositions available at virtually every sports book in Nevada.

A fair amount of creativity goes into the development of these props and considerable research is done in order to offer propositions that on the surface appear even. The use of a 20 cents line, or often a 30 cents line, ensures that the Sports Books will usually enjoy a healthy profit when all the results are in and the accounting is completed.

For the most part the props have been looked upon as secondary ways to bet the game, more often for fun than for huge monetary gains. But there may be some solid opportunities for nice profits as well and that opinion has changed in recent years.

There are professionals who scour the city – and the Internet – for the best prices on the props and who have done painstaking research to uncover even the slightest of mathematical, or ‘expected value' edges. And kudos to those who have the time, bankroll and resources to uncover those edges.

Because the smaller bettors are usually attracted to "plus" prices, the professional bettors often don't mind laying a lot to win a little when they have the percentages in their favor. The pros may well lay the - 1000 that there will not be overtime as history suggests the "true line" should be more on the order of - 1500.

By the time you are reading this the professionals will have already hammered the lines on most of the props they will have deemed to have been improperly priced according to their analysis and assumptions as to what the proper price should be based on the percentages.

But that does not mean you should not consider playing the props. Only a handful of bettors will get the "best" or "maximum" value on a specific prop.

The sharp bettors and professionals attack perceived flaws in prop lines almost immediately as they are posted and by the middle of this week much of the mathematical ""value" will have been negated. Keep in mind, of course, that the term "value" is a relative term and that depending on the factors and assumptions involved in the research on a specific prop two accomplished bettors may well find "value" on opposite sides of that same prop. Often the sharp bettors are able to create nice "middle" opportunities by exploiting the fact that the same prop may involve different numbers across several books. The Over/Under rushing or receiving yards for a certain player that may be 75 ½ yards at one book (where the sharps will play the "Over") and 81 ½ yards at another book (where the same sharps will play the "Under").

But for the majority of those who bet on the game the props merely serve to add enjoyment to the overall experience with the chance for earning a few extra bucks as the game unfolds.

If you''ve been to any sports book in Las Vegas over this past weekend or in past seasons you know that there are no shortage of different ways to wager on the Super Bowl. From the more standard props involving quarter by quarter scores or adjusted lines for the full game to more esoteric props that involve Super Bowl action vs. results in college and pro basketball, the NHL and European soccer there are hundreds if not thousands of ways for you to "test your smarts" against some of the brightest and most creative bookmakers on the planet. Or at least see how lucky you can be.

In playing the props some professional bettors advise you to concentrate on those that are in line with how you expect the game to be played, especially if your opinion is strong on either of the teams or on the Total.

For example, if you have a strong opinion that San Francisco will win the game then you might concentrate on props that favor the 49ers to do more positive things than negatives and for 49ers players to exceed their individual totals. If you like Baltimore then you might focus on QB Flacco and his receivers to have big games.

Similarly if you believe the game will be high scoring you are more likely to concentrate on offensive players exceeding their individual targets on both teams. Those with a strong UNDER opinion would do the reverse.

One strategy to consider is to look for props that have a "plus" value attached and find those that seem to go along with how you think the game will be played.

Looking at the "plus" side of such props can also be a way for the casual or recreational bettor to increase their chances to show a profit. Although not quite as simplistic -- or as easy -- as it sounds, but if a bettor were to make 20 bets and each of them carried a plus price then by winning of those 20 bets, or perhaps even going 9-11, the bettor would show a profit. Of course, you must realize that in taking a "plus" price you are betting on the "underdog" part of the prop -- the part that has less than a 50 percent chance of cashing.

But in a one game scenario those chances may actually be closer to 50/50 than if that prop were similarly priced over the course of several games and a larger sample size.

Yet many of the "plus" props, though tempting, often have value in going the other way. In fact, some of the sharpest bettors may well be very comfortable in laying a huge price on the minus side of a prop, such as whether or not there will be a safety in the game – the "Yes" is priced at plus 900, the "No" at minus 1300. Of course a safety was the first score in last year's Super Bowl and wiped out any profits the "NO" bettors had accumulated over the past few years!

There has never been overtime in the Super Bowl. At the LVH Super Book (formerly the Hilton) the overtime prop opened at + 700 that there will be overtime and minus 1000 that there will not be overtime.

Most books do not allow props to be parlayed although the LVH, for example, does have about 3 dozen specific props that may be combined but are limited to parlays involving just 2 of those props.

In looking at the many propositions that will be available on the game it's important to note that there are two major types of prop plays. The first is a head to head matchup such as which QB will have more total yards or whether the total number of sacks will be over or under a specified number. The other type of proposition is one that has more than two possible outcomes such as the player who will score the first TD, the margin of victory by the winning team or the combination of the first half result with the total game result. These propositions offer more attractive odds since there are multiple possible outcomes while the head to head matchups are priced more along the lines of a fairly competitive baseball game in which the favored part of the proposition requires the bettor to lay around -160 and the underdog player gets +130 or +140. As an extension of this type of prop are the "needle in a haystack" props that have literally dozens of possible outcomes, some with odds of several hundred to one. An example would be pick the exact number of points scored by either team. For example, if you think the Super Bowl will involve a shutout you can get 100-1 odds that the 49ers will be shut out or 300-1 odds that Baltimore won't score. If you think the linesmaker was right on target in making San Francisco a 4 point favorite with the Total at 48 you can get 40-1 odds that the 49ers will score exactly 26 points with the odds of the Ravens scoring exactly 22 points also set at 40-1. Neither of those wagers is recommended, however!

Some of the props are fairly straightforward and involve just two options. An example would be whether or not there will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half. Your choices are either Yes or No. Usually the "Yes" will be favored for this specific prop. A similar type prop involving an individual player might be whether Ravens QB Flacco will have more or less than 21 ½ pass completions in the game. Most of these two option props have low odds attached to them so that you might have to lay - 140 or - 150 on the ‘favored' part of the prop while getting back + 120 or + 130 on the ‘underdog' part of the prop. Many props are minus 110 either way such as the Flacco completions prop. Some have - 120/Even Money attached to the prop.

Props with larger payoffs involve multiple options. The most popular of these would include the player to score the first touchdown. Here you can find odds of from 5 or 6 to 1 to as high as 40 to 1 or more. If you believe a Ravens player will score the first TD you might want to consider a play on WR Jones (18-1). For the 49ers perhaps you might look at TE Davis (10-1). An oddball prop in connection with the first TD of the game is whether the player scoring the initial TD will be wearing an odd or even numbered jersey. Now THAT's creativity – and if you take the time to fully research it (the composition of both rosters as to players most likely to be involved in scoring touchdowns) you might find an edge.

If you don't want to guess the specific player to score first you might consider a prop that simply asks you to pick the team scoring first and whether that score will be a rushing TD, passing TD, "other" TD or a FG.

Most props are rather straightforward. If you believe in rewarding team loyalty you might wager on the "Over 2 ½" players to take a snap in the Super Bowl. Perhaps old school coach Jim Harbaugh will find a way to insert former starting QB Alex Smith in the game to take a snap or two in recognition of his contributions to the 49ers in his season and a half as starter and his acceptance of being replace by Colin Kaepernick after he was cleared to return to action. The price on the "Over 2 ½" opened at + 300.

There are literally several hundred propositions that can be wagered upon. Considering the many variations that number increases into the thousands. Every play will affect the outcome of multiple props. They are offered as ways to further enhance the experience of watching the game and provide opportunities for profits.

The best advice for playing the props is to shop, shop and shop some more. Each property will put its individual slant on the props and there will be opportunities for getting better value by comparing the props at the different properties.

The preference here is to look for head to head props as opposed to selecting one result from a list of 5, 10 or even more possible outcomes such as the player to score the first TD of the game or the combination of winning team and final margin. Although the payoff on these multiple outcome props far exceed the head to head props you have a much better chance of collecting on the props that offer just two possible outcomes. A secondary preference within the head to head props is to look to play props that pay even money or better since for the most part the nature of the Super Bowl makes many of the props no better than 50/50 random occurrences such as the team to punt first or to make the initial first down. In competitively priced games those events are usually independent of how the game will be played out or which team will ultimately win the game. At the same time a well thought out analysis of how the game might unfold can be profitable in quite a number of the props.

Another way to approach props is referred to as the "Tandem" approach in which you find a pair or closely related props. An example would be whether each QB's first pass will be complete or incomplete/intercepted. Usually books have this proposition priced with ‘complete' as the favorite for both quarterbacks. Playing the ‘incomplete' at a plus price for each means that you only need one of them to hit to show a profit. Considering that both quarterbacks are likely to face considerable pressure and perhaps have a case of nerves early in the game suggests that the likelihood of both passers completing their first passes is less than the possibility that one or both of them will throw incompletions initially. At the LVH, for example, the line for Flacco's first pass to be complete opened - 175; the incomplete + 155. For Kaepernick the complete opened - 185; the incomplete + 165. For these so called "tandem" props you need just one of the two to hit in order to show an overall profit on the pair. Another such prop would involve whether each punter will have at least 1 touchback.

Propositions concerning the last team to score in the first half, the team making the most field goals and similarly worded props should be approached by looking to play on the underdog half of the prop due to the uncertain status of the conditions that might develop during the game such as which team will receive the opening kickoff. Recall that the line has San Francisco a 3 ½ to 4 point favorite. The "value" will more often be on the Ravens in many of the propositions because the public will have an easier time making a case for the 49ers as the ‘favored' team in props involving things happening first or going OVER. As noted, the reality is that a great number of such props are not just independent of who you think will win the game or perform better, but of actually who will win the game or perform better and are more related to time and situation.

Finally there are the inter-sport propositions that match up an event from the Super Bowl against an event from the NBA, NHL, European soccer, PGA golf, etc. Again, some astute analysis can provide an edge in making wagers on these ‘fun' propositions. Surely from amongst the literally hundreds of propositions being offered even the most cynical person can find something to his or her liking.




It is expected that Prop Recommendations will be available on our website (see above) beginning Thursday January 31 and that there will be additions/updates posted on a daily basis with the Recommendations to be finalized around Noon Pacific time on Sunday, February 2 so be sure to check back regularly.

Above all, remember that in the eyes of the most serious, professional bettors the Super Bowl itself is just another game and one that often offers little wagering value as to its outcome because the line is strong and heavily influenced by ‘public' money. More often it will be the "props" that offer value to the pros. Although this the most important game of the season, it is just another game as far as the professional bettors are concerned and many professional bettors will have much more invested in an NBA or college basketball game played earlier in the day than they will on the Super Bowl.

Have fun. Enjoy the game. Good luck. And remember that the 2013 NFL season is just 6 months away!

Tandem Prop Pair # 1 -- First Pass by Joe Flacco & Colin Kaepernick Will be Incomplete (Flacco priced at + 160; Kaepernick priced at + 165)
This is one of our annual props that looks for one of the two quarterbacks to be off the mark in his first passing attempt. Although both have had fine post seasons, that does not necessarily mean they will be on target in their first Super Bowl pass. Nerves, timing and defensive recognition/preparation/pressure are just some of the factors that could prevent success. From more of a mathematical perspective, the likelihood of two independent events, each with a 70% chance of success (i.e. QB completion percentage), BOTH occurring is just 49%, (70% times 70%) meaning that there is a 51 % chance that at least one of the passes is incomplete. The chance for BOTH to be complete would be 30% times 30%, or 9%. The chance of one completion and one incompletion, again on a pure mathematical basis, is 42%. During the regular season Flacco completed 59.7 % of his 531 pass attempts (51 of 93, 54.8 % in the Playoffs) while Kaepernick completed 62.4 % of his 218 pass attempts in the ragular season (and 33 of his 52 Playoff pass attempts, 63.5 %). RESULTS -- Flacco - WINNER; Kaepernick - LOSER -- NET - Plus 0.65 Units


Tandem Prop Pair # 2 -- Each Quarterback WILL NOT Throw An Interception (Flacco priced at + 135; Kaepernick priced at + 125)
We have a pair of quarterbacks making their Super Bowl debuts and there is reason to believe at least one of them will have a "clean" interception-free game. In 16 games during the regular season Flacco tossed just 10 interceptions in 531 pass attempts (he has not been picked off in 93 attempts in 3 Playoff games). During the regular season, in 13 games (7 as a starter) Kaepernick was intercepted just 3 times in 218 attempts. In 2 Playoff games Kaepernick has threw just 1 interception in 52 pass attempts -- and it came in his first pass attempt against Green Bay! There is a prop on total interceptions for the game and that number is 1 1/2 with the both the OVER and the UNDER at nearly minus 110, indicating that the most likely result is 0, 1 or 2 rather than 3 or more, adding additional support for one of the quarterbacks having an interception-free game. RESULTS -- Flacco - WINNER; Kaepernick - LOSER -- NET - Plus 0.35 Units


Tandem Prop Pair # 3 -- Will the First/Last Scores of the Game Be a TD or FG/Safety? FG/Safety for First Score priced at + 140; FG/Safety for Last Score priced at + 175.
In each of the last 5 Super Bowls and in 11 of the last 14 either the first score of the game was a field goal/safety or the last score of the game was a field goal/safety. In just 2 of the last 14 Super Bowls both the first and last score were touchdowns while in 1 of the last 14 Super Bowls the first and last scores were both other than touchdowns. Again, at the plus prices, we need either the first or last score to be a FG or safety and given the just cited stats and the competitive expectations for this game this tandem prop presents nice value. RESULTS -- First -LOSER; Last - WINNER; NET - Plus 0.75 Units

Head to Head Prop # 1 -- Will There Be A Defensive Or Special Teams Touchdown -- YES is priced at + 160 -- Surprisingly, there has been a special teams or defensive teams touchdown in 9 of the last 16 Super Bowls and in 3 of the 9 there were multiple such scores. Interestingly, in the 5 New England Super Bowls in this period, there were no special teams or defensive touchdowns in 4 of those games. Put another way, in 8 of the last 11 Super Bowls not involving New England, there has been at least 1, and on 3 occasions, more than 1, special teams or defensive TD. WINNER -- Plus 1.60 Units


Head to Head Prop # 2 -- Will the Team That Scores First Win the Game? NO is priced at + 160 -- Unless a blowout is expected there is often little correlation between scoring first and winning the game. With such a competitive line as there is for this game, Sab Francisco favored by 3 1/2 to 4 points, it is quite possible that the team that falls behind first will be able to overcome that deficit and win the game. In fact, that has happened in 6 of the last 11 Super Bowls. In what is essentially a 50/50 prop, unrelated to the outcome of the game, and due to the expected competitive nature of this game, getting the nice plus price makes for an attractive play. In Baltimore's 19 games this season, the team that scored first went on to win 12 times. In San Francisco's 18 games the team that scored first has won 10 games with 1 game ending in a tie. Combined, in their 36 games that did not end in a tie, the team that scored first has gone 22-14 SU (61.1 %). In their combined 5 Playoff games, only once has the team that scored first gone on to win the game (Baltimore in their Wild Card round win over Indianapolis). LOSER -- Minus 1.00 Unit


Head to Head Prop # 3 -- Which Team Will Score First? BALTIMORE is priced at + 110 -- Similar to the previous recommendation, in what is expected to be a competitively played game there is often no correlation to which team scores first and which team ultimately wins the game. The team to score first is often determined by factors that are pretty much 50/50 and would include the team to get the game's first possession and/or field possession if that first possession does not result in a score. Baltimore scored first in 9 of its 16 regular season games and in 1 of 3 Playoff games. San Francisco scored first in 10 of 16 regular season games but in neither of its 2 Playoff games. In fact, San Francisco has failed to score first in each of its last 4 games whereas Baltimore has failed to score first in each of its last 2 games. WINNER -- Plus 1.10 Units


Hear to Head Prop # 4 -- First Touchdown Of the Game Will Be? Other Than Passing TD is priced at + 105 -- Although we are accustomed to seeing touchdowns scored more on passing plays rather than rushing plays this prop offers value in that special teams and defensive touchdowns would also cash the "other than rushing" part of this prop. And there is always the possibility of pass interference penalty in the enzone that would set the ball up on the 1 yard line. In addition to the two featured running backs (Gore and Rice) the running ability of SF QB Kaepernick also increases above normal the possibility of a rushing TD when inside the red zone. LOSER - Minus 1.00 Unit

There really are no props that offer playable value in the multiple option props but for those interested in having something going, the following are offered, not as recommendations, but rather to quench the appetite of those craving additional action on the game --


Player to score the first touchdown -- Ray Rice of Baltimore (8-1); Vernon Davis of San Francisco (10-1), Torrey Smith of Baltimore (9-1), LaMichael James of San Francisco (15-1)

Total Points Scored -- Range of 36-40 (6-1); Range of 41-45 (6-1)