In recent years the number of propositions available on the Super Bowl has grown geometrically. Unfortunately, for the purposes of being able to make uniform recommendations, there is absolutely no uniformity whatsoever amongst the various Sports Books here in Las Vegas or elsewhere. It seems that every Sports Book has their own unique propositions and those that are 'the same' or 'similar' to props elsewhere often are priced very differently. Thus it is very difficult to recommend specific propostions and our policy has been to set forth some of the propositions available in Las Vegas that seem to be most attractive.

Fortunately, however, this lack of uniformity when it comes to making plays on the props is a good thing as the more options and variations that are available, the better it is for the bettor (pun intended).

We certainly encourage those of you who are considering specific propostions and want our feedback to email the propositions to us and we shall respond with some thoughts of the prop. Obviously the sooner you can do this, the better, but we will try to respond to all such requests in a timely fashion as late as possible into Sunday morning.

Please email your questions/requests to us at --

logical7@cox.net

Enjoy the game.

We begin with an Overview of Props (taken from our Newsletter, Issue # 23) and then a look at some propositions that have value and merit to them.

One of the features that adds enjoyment to the Super Bowl is the annual POP to which we are treated. That's the Plethora Of Propositions that enable bettors to have action on virtually every play of the game. In fact, several Sports Books even offer a proposition related to the coin toss so it's possible to have action even BEFORE the game kicks off! (It's often phrased as "which team will receive the opening kickoff").

The 1985 Bears are considered by most observers to be one of the best teams of all time, especially when it comes to their defense, coached by Buddy Ryan, father of New York Jets coach Rex Ryan. The offense was more than capable, led by QB Jim McMahon and one of the top three running backs of all time, the late, great Walter Payton.

But the most important player in that game -- responsible for the birth of an entirely new industry that has experienced tremendous growth in the years since and continues to grow and flourish today -- was defensive lineman William "the Refrigerator"" Perry.

During that season that saw the Bears start 12-0 and threatening the perfect season accomplished by the Miami Dolphins 13 seasons earlier it was a loss in game 13 at Miami that derailed that quest and would be the only blemish in what would be an 18-1 season. Prior to the Super Bowl both of Chicago's Playoff wins were shutouts. At times during the season coach Mike Ditka would pair Perry in the backfield with Payton.

Because the Bears were double digit favorites in Super Bowl XX over New England with virtually everyone expecting a rout, several sports books came up with the novel idea of offering bets on whether or not Perry would score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Thus was born the modern era of the proposition bet. And although the books lost money on that prop as Perry indeed did plunge into the end zone during the game (which, as memory recalls, was bet down from around 15 or 20 to 1 to about 4 or 5 to 1) it was the start of what has annually become a betting event as big as -- or perhaps bigger -- than the game itself.

National and even international attention is focused on the many ways one can wager on the Super Bowl. Back in the early 1990's the Imperial Palace was the most innovative author of props under Kirk Brooks and Jay Kornegay. When Kornegay moved to the Las Vegas Hilton (now known as the LCH) it became the industry leader in prop bets and continues to offer hundreds of ways in which bettors can have action on virtually every play of the game. In fact, it's possible to have action even before kickoff as a wager related to the coin toss is available (often phrased as which team will receive the opening kickoff). The release of the Hilton's double digit pages of props is an eagerly awaited event as the Super Bowl approaches and now most, if not all, of the sports books have some sort of prop offerings. This year's "packet" consists of 24+ pages (8 ½ by 14 inch) loaded with all sorts of props.

Although the Super Bowl may be the most heavily bet game of the year it's generally not the most bettable game of the year. So much is known about both teams and so much attention is paid to almost every angle that most of the wagering possibilities may involve the many propositions that will be posted at the sports books in town, rather than just on the team to cover or whether the game will go Over or Under the total. Many of the ‘props' are innovative and entertaining and are designed to provide action throughout the game. It is literally possible to have action on every single play of the Super Bowl if you play enough of the props.

As noted above, much of the success of "prop" wagering dates back to Chicago's appearance in Super Bowl XX in January 1986 when the Bears were heavily favored over New England. But one special wager was offered -- will Chicago defensive lineman William "Refrigerator" Perry score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Then Bears coach Mike Ditka had used Perry several times in the backfield, teaming with the great Walter Payton. Because of the lopsided pointspread in the game, novel ways to attract action were considered. As memory serves, the "Yes" was originally priced in the neighborhood of roughly 15 to 1 that Perry would score a TD. The novelty of such a unique wagering proposition caused an overwhelming number of bettors to take a flyer on that prop. At kickoff the odds had fallen to the vicinity of 4 or 5 to 1 and, sure enough, Perry did score a touchdown in the Bears' 46-10 rout of the Patriots. While the books lost money on that specific prop, it wound up serving as a "loss leader" as props won a huge following. Over the past 25 + years one of most anticipated events of the time between the Conference Title games and the Super Bowl is the release of the many props that can be wagered upon. From what used to be a page or two the offerings at some books fill more than a dozen double sided long sheets. Not only are there props involving the two teams in the game, some creative bookmakers offer props that tie certain events in the Super Bowl to other sports being played over Super Bowl weekend, both within the US and internationally.

Let's share some thoughts on the multitude of propositions available at virtually every sports book in Nevada.

A fair amount of creativity goes into the development of these props and considerable research is done in order to offer propositions that on the surface appear even. The use of a 20 cents line, or often a 30 cents line, ensures that the Sports Books will usually enjoy a healthy profit when all the results are in and the accounting is completed.

For the most part the props have been looked upon as secondary ways to bet the game, more often for fun than for huge monetary gains. But there may be some solid opportunities for nice profits as well and that opinion has changed in recent years.

There are professionals who scour the city – and the Internet – for the best prices on the props and who have done painstaking research to uncover even the slightest of mathematical, or ‘expected value' edges. And kudos to those who have the time, bankroll and resources to uncover those edges.

The sharp bettors and professionals attack perceived flaws in prop lines almost immediately as they are posted and by the middle of this week much of the mathematical ""value" will have been negated. Often the sharp bettors are able to create nice "middle" opportunities by exploiting the fact that the same prop may involve different numbers across several books, such the Over/Under rushing or receiving yards for a certain player may be 75 ½ yards at one book (where the sharps will play the "Over") and 81 ½ yards at another book (where the sharps will play the "Under").

But for the majority of those who bet on the game the props merely serve to add enjoyment to the overall experience with the chance for earning a few extra bucks as the game unfolds.

If you''ve been to any sports book in Las Vegas over this past weekend or in past seasons you know that there are no shortage of different ways to wager on the Super Bowl. From the more standard props involving quarter by quarter scores or adjusted lines for the full game to more esoteric props that involve Super Bowl action vs. results in college and pro basketball, the NHL and European soccer there are hundreds if not thousands of ways for you to "test your smarts" against some of the brightest and most creative bookmakers on the planet. Or at least see how lucky you can be.

In playing the props it is often advised to concentrate on those that fall in line with how you expect the game to be played, especially if you have a strong opinion on either one of the teams or on the Total.

For example, if you have a strong opinion that New York will win the game then you might concentrate on props that favor the Giants to do more positive things than negatives and for Giants players to exceed their individual totals. If you like the Pats then you might focus on QB Brady and his receivers to have big games.

Similarly if you believe the game will be high scoring you are more likely to concentrate on offensive players exceeding their individual targets on both teams. Those with a strong UNDER opinion would do the reverse.

One strategy to consider is to look for props that have a "plus" value attached and find those that seem to go along with how you think the game will be played.

But many of the "plus" props, though tempting, often have value in going the other way. In fact, some of the sharpest bettors may well be very comfortable in laying a huge price on the minus side of a prop, such as whether or not there will be a safety in the game – the "Yes" is priced at plus 900, the "No" at minus 1300.

There has never been overtime in the Super Bowl. At the LVH Super Book (formerly the Hilton) the overtime prop opened at plus 800 that there will be overtime and minus 1100 that there will not be extra football. All 4 of New England's Super Bowls in the Brady era have been decided by 3 points. Will this be the first time in Super Bowl history that the ‘Yes" will pay off?

Wouldn't it be a blast if this year's Super Bowl is decided by a safety in overtime!

Most books do not allow props to be parlayed although the LVH, for example, does have about 3 dozen specific props that may be combined but are limited to two prop parlays.

In looking at the many propositions that will be available on the game it's important to note that there are two major types of prop plays. The first is a head to head matchup such as which QB will have more total yards or whether the total number of sacks will be over or under a specified number. The other type of proposition is one that has more than two possible outcomes such as the player who will score the first TD, the margin of victory by the winning team or the combination of the first half result with the total game result. These propositions offer more attractive odds since there are several possible outcomes while the head to head matchups are priced more along the lines of a fairly competitive baseball game in which the favored part of the proposition requires the bettor to lay around -160 and the underdog player gets +130 or +140. As an extension of this type of prop are the "needle in a haystack" props that have literally dozens of possible outcomes, some with odds of several hundred to one. An example would be pick the exact number of points scored by either team. For example, if you think the Super Bowl will involve a shutout you can get 100-1 odds that the Giants will be shut out or 200-1 odds that New England won't score. If you think the linesmaker was right on target in making New England a 3 point favorite with the Total at 55 you can get 75-1 odds that the Patriots will score exactly 29 points with the odds of the Giants scoring exactly 26 set at 40-1.

Some of the props are fairly straightforward and involve just two options. An example would be whether or not there will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half. Your choices are either Yes or No. Usually the "Yes" will be favored for this specific prop. A similar type prop involving an individual player might be whether Patriots QB Brady will have more or less than 25 ½ pass completions in the game. Most of these two option props have low odds attached to them so that you might have to lay - 140 or - 150 on the ‘favored' part of the prop while getting back + 120 or + 110 on the ‘underdog' part of the prop. Many props are minus 110 either way such as the Brady completions prop. Some have - 120/Even Money attached to the prop.

Props with larger payoffs involve multiple options. The most popular of these would include the player to score the first touchdown. Here you can find odds of from 5 or 6 to 1 to as high as 40 to 1 or more. If you believe a Giants player will score the first TD you might want to consider a play on WR Manningham (15-1). For the Patriots perhaps you might look at WR Branch (12-1). An oddball prop in connection with the first TD of the game is whether the player scoring the initial TD will be wearing an odd or even numbered jersey. Now THAT's creativity – and if you take the time to fully research it (the composition of both rosters as to players most likely to be involved in scoring touchdowns) you might find an edge.

If you don't want to guess the specific player to score first you might consider a prop that simply asks you to pick the team scoring first and whether that score will be a rushing TD, passing TD, "other" TD or a FG.

There are literally several hundred propositions that can be wagered upon. Considering the many variations that number increases into the thousands. Every play will affect the outcome of multiple props. They are offered as ways to further enhance the experience of watching the game and provide opportunities for profits.

The best advice for playing the props is to shop, shop and shop some more. Each property will put its individual slant on the props and there will be opportunities for getting better value by comparing the props at the different properties.

The preference here is to look for head to head props as opposed to selecting one result from a list of 5, 10 or even more possible outcomes such as the player to score the first TD of the game or the combination of winning team and final margin. Although the payoff on these multiple outcome props far exceed the head to head props you have a much better chance of collecting on the props that offer just two possible outcomes. A secondary preference within the head to head props is to look to play props that pay even money or better since for the most part the nature of the Super Bowl makes many of the props no better than 50/50 random occurrences such as the team to punt first or to make the initial first down. At the same time a well thought out analysis of how the game might unfold can be profitable in quite a number of the props.

Another way to approach props is to pair them off. An example is to look at playing whether each QB's first pass will be either complete or incomplete. Usually books have this proposition priced with ‘complete' as the favorite for both quarterbacks. Playing the ‘incomplete' at a plus price for each means that you only need one of them to hit to show a profit. Considering that both quarterbacks are likely to face considerable pressure and perhaps have a case of nerves early in the game suggests that the likelihood of both passers completing their first passes is less than the possibility that one or both of them will throw incompletions initially. At the LVH, for example, the line for Brady's first pass to be complete opened -230, the incomplete +195. For Manning the complete opened -200, the incomplete +175. For these so called "tandem" props you need just one of the two to hit in order to show an overall profit on the pair.

Propositions concerning the last team to score in the firs

"Tandem" Props are props that are paired and related to one another. Our approach has been to look for a pair of props that are both related in some way to one another and both of which carry a "plus" price so that if one of the props hits you are guaranteed to show a profit. In general the math behind the props suggests that you are most likely to go 1-1 but with a greater chance of going 2-0 than of going 0-2.

Tandem Prop Pair # 1 -- First Pass by Eli Manning & Tom Brady Will be Incomplete (Manning priced at + 165; Tom Brady priced at + 195)
This is one of our annual props that looks for one of the two quarterbacks to be off the mark in his first passing attempt. Although both Brady and Manning are experienced, outstanding quarterbacks that does not necessarily mean they will be on target in their first pass of the game. Nerves, timing and defensive recognition/preparation are just some of the factors that could prevent success. From more of a mathematical perspective, the likelihood of two independent events, each with a 70% chance of success (i.e. QB completion percentage), BOTH occurring is just 49%, (70% times 70%) meaning that there is a 51 % chance that at least one of the passes is incomplete. The chance for BOTH to be complete would be 30% times 30%, or 9%. The chance of one completion and one incompletion, again on a pure mathematical basis, is 42%. -- Manning -- LOSER; Brady -- WINNER


Tandem Prop Pair # 2 -- Each Team Will Have A Successful 4th Down Conversion (Giants priced at + 155; Patriots Priced at + 120)
Considering that both teams have potent offenses (ranking # 2 and # 8 in total offense) and weak defenses (ranking # 27 and # 32 in total defense) there is a greater likelihood that presented with fourth down situations in field positions that might normally call for punts (i.e. from about the 35 yard line to midfield) we may well see both teams take a chance on coverting fourth and short sitaitions rather than punt the football where only perhaps 15-20 yards might be gained should the punt result in a touchback. Giants -- LOSER; Patriots - WINNER


Tandem Prop Pair # 3 -- Each Quarterback WILL NOT Throw An Interception (Manning priced at + 170; Brady priced at + 120)
We have a pair of elite quarterbacks facing off in Super Bowl XLVI and there is reason to believe at least on of them will have a "clean" interception-free game. In 16 games during the regular season Brady tossed just 12 interceptions in 611 pass attempts (he has been picked off 3 times in 70 attempts in 2 Playoff games). During the regular season's 16 games Manning was intercepted 16 times in 589 attempts. In 3 Playoff games Manning threw just 1 interception in 123 pass attempts. There is a prop on total interceptions for the game and that number is 2 1/2 with the UNDER priced at nearly 5-2 (minus 240) indicating that the most likely result is 0, 1 or 2 rather than 3 or more, adding additional support for one of the quarterbacks having an interception-free game. Manning -- WINNER; Brady -- LOSER


Tandem Prop Pair # 4 -- Will the First/Last Scores of the Game Be a TD or FG/Safety? FG/Safety for First Score priced at + 160; FG/Safety for Last Score priced at + 160.
In each of the last 4 Super Bowls and in 10 of the last 13 either the first score of the game was a field goal or the last score of the game was a field goal. In 2 of the last 13 Super Bowls both the first and last score were touchdowns while in 1 of the last 13 Super Bowls the first and last scores were both field goals. Again, at the plus prices, we need either the first or last score to be a FG and given the just cited stats and the competitive expectations for this game this tandem prop presents nice value. First Score -- WINNER; Last Score -- LOSER

"Head to Head" props are similar in one respect to the "Tandem" props in that these props require you to correctly pick 1 of just 2 options. But they differ in that they stand alone and are not considered to be related to the chances of cashing other props even if there may be some connection or correlation between the specified prop and some other prop. In other words, whereas the goal in "tandem" props is to cash at least 1 of 2 related props the "Head to Head" prop stands on its own and the objective is to cash this prop regardless of other props that may be played. The preference is to look for props at a "plus" price but we find it acceptable to play props that carry a minus vig, with the usual limit being no higher than minus 130.


Head to Head Prop # 1 -- Will the Team That Scores First Win the Game? NO is priced at + 145
Unless a blowout is expected there is often little correlation between scoring first and winning the game. With such a competitive line as there is for this game, with New England favored by a FG or less, it is quite possible that the team that falls behind first will be able to overcome that deficit and win the game. In fact, that has happened in 6 of the last 10 Super Bowls. In what is essentially a 50/50 prop due to the expected competitive nature of this game getting the nice plus price makes for an attractive play. LOSER


Head to Head Prop # 2 -- Will Eli Manning Throw a TD Pass in the 3rd Quarter? YES is priced at + 180
Ther are 8 separate props, 4 for each QB, that asks if Brady or Manning will throw a TD pass, one prop for each quarter. Manning in the 3rd quarter carries the highest plus price of any of those 8 props and is worth playing because of the value. While it is possible that New England will receive the kickoff to start the second half (uncertain until the coin toss) the likelihood is that each team will have at least 3 possessions in each quarter. This number may even be greater if both teams play to their character and emphasize the passing attack over the ground game. Teams are able to make adjustments at halftime. The second halves of Super Bowls have been higher scoring than first halves and this Super Bowl has one of the highest Totals ever (roughly 54 Total points). There are props on the number of TD passes thrown overall by Eli Manning and the most likely results are either 1 or 2 with the OVER 1 1/2 and UNDER 2 1/2 both solid favorites. At nearly 2-1 odds the third quarter prop offers the best value as to WHEN a TD pass may occur. LOSER


Head to Head Prop # 3 -- Will Final Margin Be Exactly 3 Points? YES -is priced at + 375
This is pretty much what we write every season but the prop is presented with an added twist for the matchup. It may seem like a stab in the dark and at a price that is less than how it should be priced based on the fact that about 15 % of all games land right on 3 points (making the true odds of it happening about 5.7 to 1. But recent Super Bowls have been extremely competitive and have gone down to the wire with 3 of the last 8 and 4 of the last 10 Super Bowls decided by exactly a FG. AND ALL 4 OF THOSE GAMES INVOLVED NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING SUPER BOWL XLII IN WHICH THE GIANTS DEFEATED THE PATRIOTS 17-14! 3 years ago, Super Bowl XLIII could easily have also landed on 3 as Arizona led 23-20 before Santonio Holmes' great catch for the winning TD in the Steelers' 27-23 win. Along with last seaosn's game, this is the most competitively priced Super Bowl in nearly 30 years and the Giants and Patriots are evenly matched as their last 3 meetings have been decided by 4, 3 and 3 points. Both teams have QBs capable of engineering fourth quater drives that could result in a game winning FG or a game tying score that would send the game into overtime and increase the likelihood of the final margin being 3 points. There have already been 2 overtime games in 10 Playoffs games this season. And further note that the new OT rules could also come into play with an opening drive FG being answered by a TD for which the extra point would not be kicked, resulting in a 3 point margin. LOSER

"Multiple Option" Props are the props that involve selecting one of three or more options. Often there can be a half dozen to a dozen possible outcomes, or more, such as the player to score the first touchdown or the range in which the total points scored in the game will fall or, perhaps even the exact number of points scored by one of the participating teams. Unlike head to head props which often carry odds in the minus 180/minus 200 to plus 160/plus 180 range (there are exceptions, however) the odds paid on the multiple option props can be anywhere from 4-1 or so at the low end to upwards of 50-1 or 100-1 or even higher for events with a very low likelihood of occurring. Although we generally avoid these "needle in a haystack" props because of the difficulty in achieving the main goal of making these plays -- to cash the ticket -- often there will be some of these props that are worth taking a shot at (such as when we had Chicago's Devon Hester to score the first TD in Super Bowl XLI against the Colts at odds of 25-1. He did just that by returning the opening kickoff). These props carry the most risk and thus should be played at a lower level than either the "tandem" props or the "head to head" props.


Player To Score First TD
For the Giants, WR Mario Manningham is priced in the vicinity of 15 -1. For the Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez is priced in the vicinity of 10-1. Both are reasonablly priced to consider for play. And the field, at odds of about 7-1, can also be considered as it takes into account special teams and defensive players scoring the first TD of the game and not having to name a specific player.