One of the features that adds
enjoyment to the Super Bowl is the annual POP to which we are treated. That's the
Plethora Of Propositions that enable bettors to have action on virtually every play
of the game. In fact, several Sports Books even offer a proposition related to the
coin toss so it's possible to have action even BEFORE the game kicks off! (It's often
phrased as "which team will receive the opening kickoff").
We do,
of course, have some generalized comments and will be posting the props about which
we are most enthusiastic on our website later this week. To receive our recommended
proposition plays be sure to visit our website and go to the SUBSCRIBERS' SELECTIONS
& NEWSLETTERS link on our Home Page. When you get to the Subscribers' page the
link to access the proposition recommendations will be prominently displayed. Very
often several of the props offer a greater opportunity for success than either the
Side or Total selection. Our website address is www.thelogicalapproach.com . Online
readers may CLICK HERE for direct access to our Proposition Page for Super Bowl XLIV.
Although
the Super Bowl may be the most heavily bet game of the year it is generally not the
most bettable game of the year. So much is known about both teams and so much attention
is paid to almost every angle that most of the wagering possibilities may involve
the many propositions that will be posted at the sports books in town, rather than
just on the team to cover or whether the game will go Over or Under the total. Many
of the ‘props' are innovative and entertaining and are designed to provide action
throughout the game. It is literally possible to have action on every single play
of the Super Bowl if you play enough of the props.
Much of the success of
"prop" wagering dates back to Chicago's appearance in Super Bowl XX. In
January 1986 the Bears were heavily favored over New England. But one special wager
was offered -- will Chicago defensive lineman William "Refrigerator" Perry
score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Then Bears coach Mike Ditka had used Perry several
times in the backfield, teaming with the great Walter Payton. Because of the lopsided
pointspread in the game, novel ways to attract action were considered. As memory
serves, the "Yes" was originally priced in the neighborhood of roughly
15 to 1 that Perry would score a TD. The novelty of such a unique wagering proposition
caused an overwhelming number of bettors to take a flyer on that prop. At kickoff
the odds had fallen to the vicinity of 4 or 5 to 1 and, sure enough, Perry did score
a touchdown in the Bears' 46-10 rout of the Patriots. While the books lost money
on that specific prop, it wound up serving as a "loss leader" as props
won a huge following. Over the past 20 + years one of most anticipated events of
the time between the Conference Title games and the Super Bowl is the release of
the many props that can be wagered upon. From what used to be a page or two the offerings
at some books fill more than a dozen double sided long sheets. Not only are there
props involving the two teams in the game, some creative bookmakers offer props that
tie certain events in the Super Bowl to other sports being played over Super Bowl
weekend, both within the US and internationally.
Let's share some thoughts
on the multitude of propositions available at virtually every sports book in Nevada.
What
began as a novelty over 20 years ago has become a phenomenon that is eagerly awaited
every season. The growth has been geometric with several properties offering over
one hundred different props. At the Las Vegas Hilton, for example, 21 full sized
8 ½ by 14 inch pages filled with nothing but props are available.
A fair amount
of creativity goes into the development of these props and considerable research
is done in order to offer propositions that on the surface appear even. The use of
a 20 cents line, or often a 30 cents line, ensures that the Sports Books will enjoy
a healthy profit when all the results are in and the accounting is completed.
For
the most part the props have been looked upon as secondary ways to bet the game,
more often for fun than for huge monetary gains. But there may be some solid opportunities
for nice profits as well.
Sure, there are professionals who scour the city
– and the Internet – for the best prices on the props and who have done painstaking
research to uncover even the slightest of mathematical, or ‘expected value' edges.
And kudos to those who have the time, bankroll and resources to uncover those edges.
But
for the majority of those who bet on the game the props merely serve to add enjoyment
to the overall experience with the chance for earning a few extra bucks as the game
unfolds.
In looking at the many propositions that will be available on the
game it's important to note that there are two major types of prop plays. The first
is a head to head matchup such as which QB will have more total yards or whether
the total number of sacks will be over or under a specified number. The other type
of proposition is one that has more than two possible outcomes such as the player
who will score the first TD, the margin of victory by the winning team or the combination
of the first half result with the total game result. These propositions offer more
attractive odds since there are several possible outcomes while the head to head
matchups are priced more along the lines of a fairly competitive baseball game in
which the favored part of the proposition requires the bettor to lay around -160
and the underdog player gets +130 or +140.
Some of the props are fairly straightforward
and involve just two options. An example would be whether or not there will be a
score in the final two minutes of the first half. Your choices are either Yes or
No. Usually the "Yes" will be favored for this specific prop. A similar
type prop involving an individual player might be whether Arizona QB Warner will
have more or less than 23 ½ pass completions in the game. Most of these two option
props have low odds attached to them so that you might have to lay - 140 or - 150
on the ‘favored' part of the prop while getting back + 120 or + 110 on the ‘underdog'
part of the prop. Many props are minus 110 either way such as the Warner completions
prop. Some will have - 120/Even Money attached to the prop.
Props with larger
payoffs involve multiple options. The most popular of these would include the player
to score the first touchdown. Here you can find odds of from 5 or 6 to 1 to as high
as 50 to 1 or more. If you believe a Pittsburgh player will score the first TD you
might want to consider a play on TE Miller (10-1). For the Cards perhaps you might
look at WR Boldin (12-1). Ann oddball prop in connection with the first TD of the
game is whether the player scoring the initial TD will be wearing an odd or even
numbered jersey. Now THAT's creativity – and if you take the time to fully research
it you might find an edge.
If you don't want to guess the specific player
to score first you might consider a prop that simply asks you to pick the team scoring
first and whether that score will be a rushing TD, passing TD, "other"
TD or a FG.
There are literally hundreds of propositions that can be wagered
upon. Considering the many variations that number increases into the thousands. Every
play will affect the outcome of multiple props. They are offered as ways to further
enhance the experience of watching the game and provide opportunities for profits.
The
best advice for playing the props is to shop, shop and shop some more. Each property
will put its individual slant on the props and there will be opportunities for getting
better value by comparing the props at the different properties.
The preference
here is to look for head to head props as opposed to selecting one result from a
list of 5, 10 or even more possible outcomes such as the player to score the first
TD of the game or the combination of winning team and final margin. Although the
payoff on these multiple outcome props far exceed the head to head props you have
a much better chance of collecting on the props that offer just two possible outcomes.
A secondary preference within the head to head props is to look to play props that
pay even money or better since for the most part the nature of the Super Bowl makes
many of the props no better than 50/50 random occurrences such as the team to punt
first or to make the initial first down. At the same time a well thought out analysis
of how the game might unfold can be profitable in quite a number of the props.
Another
way to approach props is to pair them off. An example is to look at playing whether
each QB's first pass will be either complete or incomplete. Usually books have this
proposition priced with ‘complete' as the favorite for both quarterbacks. Playing
the ‘incomplete' at a plus price for each means that you only need one of them to
hit to show a profit. Considering that both quarterbacks are likely to face considerable
pressure and perhaps have a case of nerves early in the game suggests that the likelihood
of both passers completing their first passes is less than the possibility that one
or both of them will throw incompletions initially. At the Hilton, for example, the
line for Roethlisberger's first pass to be complete opened -200, the incomplete +175.
For Warner the complete opened -190, the incomplete +170. For these so called "tandem"
props you need just one of the two to hit in order to show an overall profit on the
pair.
Propositions concerning the last team to score in the first half, the
team making the most field goals and similarly worded props should be approached
by looking to play on the underdog half of the prop due to the uncertain status of
the conditions that might develop during the game such as which team will receive
the opening kickoff. Recall that the line has Pittsburgh a 7 point favorite. The
"value" will more often be on the Cardinals in many of the propositions
because the public will have an easier time making a case for the Steelers as the
‘favored' team in props involving things happening first. The reality is that a great
number of such propositions are independent of who you think will win the game or
perform better.
Finally there are the inter-sport propositions that match
up an event from the Super Bowl against an event from the NBA, NHL, European soccer,
PGA golf, etc. Again, some astute analysis can provide an edge in making wagers on
these ‘fun' propositions. Surely from amongst the literally hundreds of propositions
being offered even the most cynical person can find something to his or her liking.
Above
all, remember that in the eyes of the most serious, professional bettors the Super
Bowl is just another game and one that often offers little wagering value because
the line is strong and heavily influenced by ‘public' money.
Have fun. Enjoy
the game. Good luck. And remember that the 2009 NFL season is just six months away.
Will the Team That Scores First
Win the Game -- "NO" is Priced at + 165 (Hilton) -- There have been
numerous instances of the first score in Super Bowls being made by the team that
ultimately loses the game in recent years and, in fact, has happened in 5 of the
last 8 Super Bowls overall. -- WINNER Plus 1.65 Units
Team to
Make the First 1st Down of the Second Half -- New Orleans is Priced at + 105 (Hilton)
-- This can pretty much be considered an even prop since the team to receive the
opening kickoff of the second half has the first opportunity to run plays from scrimmage
so getting a plus price on either side is worth playing. -- WINNER Plus 1.05 Units
DUAL
or TANDEM Proposition -- Will a Thomas Moorstad (New Orleans) or Pat McAfee (Indianapolis)
Punt Results in a Touchback -- "Yes" is priced at + 220 for Moorstead +
200 for McAfee (Hilton) -- Although neither punter had many touchbacks during
the regular season the conservative nature of a big game may prompt punts rather
than long field goal attempts from between an opponents' 35 yard line and
mid field, increasing the possibility for a punt to sail into the endzone.
Again, just one touchback from either punter makes this a winning proposition. --
LOST BOTH Minus 2.0 Units
Which Team Will Score First -- New
Orleans -- Priced at + 120 (Hilton) -- Both teams are high scoring teams
and neither has an outstanding defense. It is quite possible that the team that wins
the coin toss will score on its first. Again, this can be looked upon as a 50/50
proposition as neither team has a significant offensive or defensive edge. -- LOST
Minus 1.0 Unit
Which Team Will Punt First -- Indianapolis -- Priced
at + 105 (Stations) -- This could well depend on which team gets the ball first.
The key is that New Orleans has the better third down defense while Indianapolis
is tien for second worst in the league, allowing 45% third down conversions. For
the season, including Playoffs, the Colts punted 6 more times than did the Saints.
-- LOST Minus 1.0 Unit
DUAL or TANDEM Propostion -- Will Peyton
Manning or Drew Brees Throw At Least One Interception? -- NO -- Manning is Priced
at + 145 and Brees is Priced at + 150 (Stations) -- These are two of the top
QBs in the NFL and its tough to force mistakes from either. Brees did not throw and
interception in 9 of the 17 games he played this season. Manning was not quite as
good with only 5 interception-free games. Still only one of these great QBs needs
to be spotless to show a profit. The prop for total interceptions is 2 1/2 with the
UNDER priced as high as minus 250, indicating that there are likely to be very few
tossed by this pair of signal callers. -- LOST Manning, WON Brees Net of
Plus 0.5 Unit
Higher Risk Proposition -- Will Final Margin Be Exactly
3 Points? -- YES -- Priced at + 450 (Hilton) -- This may seem like a stab in
the dark and at a price that is less than how it should be priced based on the fact
that about 15 % of all games land right on 3 points (making the true odds of it happening
about 5.7 t 1. But recent Super Bowls have been extremely competitive and have gone
down to the wire with 3 of the last 6 and 4 of the last 8 Super Bowls decided by
exactly a FG. Last year's game could easily have also landed on 3 as Arizona led
23-20 before Santonio Holmes' great catch for the winning TD in the Steelers' 27-23
win. The Colts and Saints are very evenly matched with a pair of outstanding quarterbacks
so it would be that much of surprise to see a late fourth quater drive result in
a game winning FG or a game tying score that would send the game into overtime and
increase the likelihood of the final margin being 3 points. -- LOST Minus 1.0
Unit
Last Score of First Half Will Be -- Other Than A Touchdown
(FG or Safety) -- Priced at + 130 (Hilton) -- Clearly both teams have quick
strike capability and one or both teams may have a chance to score in the final
couple of minutes of the first half. The thought behind this play is that
there may be enough time for one of the teams to move the ball into FG position in
the waning moments of the first half even if the other team scored with about a minute
or so remaining. And there is always the possibility that such a score
may have been a FG rather than a TD. The odds that there will be a
score in the final two minutes of the half are high, but that
does not necessarily mean it will be a TD. That each QB can move his
team downfield in just 30 to 45 seconds even without timeouts remaining makes
the plus on this prop a reasonable play. -- WINNER Plus 1.3 Units.
Last
Score of Game Will Be -- Other Than A Touchdown (FG or Safety) -- Priced at + 195
(Hilton) -- Obviously the final score of the game depends upon the situation
-- The team in the lead may opt for a FG rather than a high risk play on third down
simply to extend the lead -- The trailing team could need either a TD or FG to close
the gap, tie the score, or take the lead. At nearly 2 to 1 this prop has some value
because of what could be the conservative nature of this game in the late stages.
-- LOST Minus 1.0 Unit
DUAL or TANDEM Proposition -- Will Drew
Brees Throw a TD Pass in the First Quarter? Third Quarter? -- YES -- Priced at +
200 for the first quarter and + 200 in the third quarter -- The Over/Under for
Brees TD Passes in the game is 1 1/2 with the OVER priced at - 160 meaning that it
is more likely he witll throw 2 rather than 1. The Saints are likely to have at least
two possessions per quarter depending on game flow and thus if Brees throws at least
1 TD pass there is a good chance it could come in the first or third quarter. If
he throws 2 TD passes in the game the chances for a first or third quarter TD pass
are greater. We need only one of those events to occur to show a profit for this
Tandem/Dual prop. -- Lost 1st Quarter, Won 3rd Quarter Net Plus 1.0 Unit