One of the features that adds enjoyment
to the Super Bowl is the annual POP to which we are treated. That's the Plethora
Of Propositions that enable bettors to have action on virtually every play of the
game. In fact, several Sports Books even offer a proposition related to the coin
toss so it's possible to have action even BEFORE the game kicks off! (It's phrased
as "which team will receive the opening kickoff").
We do, of course,
have some generalized comments and will be posting the props about which we are most
enthusiastic on our website later this week. To receive our recommended proposition
plays be sure to visit our website and go to the SUBSCRIBERS' SELECTIONS & NEWSLETTERS
link on our Home Page. When you get to the Subscribers' page the link to access the
proposition recommendations will be prominently displayed. You may also call our
offices on Saturday, February 2 and we shall try to be available in the afternoon
(2 to 6 PM Pacific time) to discuss our recommendations with you. Very often several
of the props offer a greater opportunity for success than either the Side or Total
selection. Our office number is (702) 898-9802 and our website address is www.thelogicalapproach.com
. Online readers may CLICK HERE for direct access to our Proposition Page for Super
Bowl XLI.
Although the Super Bowl may be the most heavily bet game of the
year it is generally not the most bettable game of the year. So much is known about
both teams and so much attention is paid to almost every angle that most of the wagering
possibilities may involve the many propositions that will be posted at the sports
books in town, rather than just on the team to cover or whether the game will go
Over or Under the total. Many of the ‘props' are innovative and entertaining and
are designed to provide action throughout the game. It is literally possible to have
action on every single play of the Super Bowl if you play enough of the props.
Much
of the success of "prop" wagering dates back to Chicago's appearance in
Super Bowl XX. In January 1986 the Bears were heavily favored over New England. But
one special wager was offered -- will Chicago defensive lineman William "Refrigerator"
Perry score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Then Bears coach Mike Ditka had used Perry
several times in the backfield, teaming with the great Walter Payton. Because of
the lopsided pointspread in the game, novel ways to attract action were considered.
As memory serves, the "Yes" was originally priced in the neighborhood of
roughly 15 to 1 that Perry would score a TD. The novelty of such a unique wagering
proposition caused an overwhelming number of bettors to take a flyer on that prop.
At kickoff the odds had fallen to the vicinity of 4 or 5 to 1 and, sure enough, Perry
did score a touchdown in the Bears' 46-10 rout of the Patriots. While the books lost
money on that specific prop, they won a huge following and over the past 20 + years
one of most anticipated events of the time between the Conference Title games and
the Super Bowl is the release of the many props that can be wagered upon. From what
used to be a page or two the offerings at some books fill more than a dozen double
sided long sheets. Not only are there props involving the two teams in the game,
some creative bookmakers offer props that tie certain events in the Super Bowl to
other sports being played over Super Bowl weekend, both within the US and internationally.
A
few thoughts on the multitude of propositions available at virtually every sports
book in Nevada.
What began as a novelty over 20 years ago has become a phenomenon
that is eagerly awaited every season. The growth has been geometric with several
properties offering over one hundred different props. At the Las Vegas Hilton, for
example, 21 full sized 8 ½ by 14 inch pages filled with nothing but props are available.
A
fair amount of creativity goes into the development of these props and considerable
research is done in order to offer propositions that on the surface appear even.
The use of a 20 cents line, or often a 30 cents line, ensures that the Sports Books
will enjoy a healthy profit when all the results are in and the accounting is completed.
For
the most part the props have been looked upon as secondary ways to bet the game,
more often for fun than for huge monetary gains. But there may be some solid opportunities
for nice profits as well.
Sure, there are professionals who scour the city
for the best prices on the props and who have done painstaking research to uncover
even the slightest of mathematical, or ‘expected value' edges. And kudos to those
who have the time, bankroll and resources to uncover those edges.
But for
the majority of those who bet on the game the props merely serve to add enjoyment
to the overall experience with the chance for earning a few extra bucks as the game
unfolds.
In looking at the many propositions that will be available on the
game it's important to note that there are two major types of prop plays. The first
is a head to head matchup such as which QB will have more total yards or whether
the total number of sacks will be over or under a specified number. The other type
of proposition is one that has more than two possible outcomes such as the player
who will score the first TD, the margin of victory by the winning team or the combination
of the first half result with the total game result. These propositions offer more
attractive odds since there are several possible outcomes while the head to head
matchups are priced more along the lines of a fairly competitive baseball game in
which the favored part of the proposition requires the bettor to lay around -160
and the underdog player gets +130 or +140.
Some of the props are fairly straightforward
and involve just two options. An example would be whether or not there will be a
score in the final two minutes of the first half. Your choices are either Yes or
No. Usually the "Yes" will be favored for this specific prop. A similar
type prop involving an individual player might be whether Giants QB Manning will
have more or less than 21 ½ pass completions in the game. Most of these two option
props have low odds attached to them so that you might have to lay - 140 or - 150
on the ‘favored' part of the prop while getting back + 120 or + 110 on the ‘underdog'
part of the prop. Many props are minus 110 either way. Some will have - 120/Even
Money attached to the prop.
Props with larger payoffs involve multiple options.
The most popular of these would include the player to score the first touchdown.
Here you can find odds of from 5 or 6 to 1 to as high as 50 to 1 or more. If you
believe a New England player will score the first TD you might want to consider a
play on TE Watson (10-1). For the Giants perhaps you might look at RB Jacobs (15-1).
Ann oddball prop in connection with the first TD of the game is whether the player
scoring that initial TD will be wearing an odd or even numbered jersey. Now THAT's
creativity – and if you take the time to fully research it you might find an edge.
If
you don't want to guess the specific player to score first you might consider a prop
that simply asks you to pick the team scoring first and whether that score will be
a rushing TD, passing TD, "other" TD or a FG.
There are literally
hundreds of propositions that can be wagered upon. Considering the many variations
that number increases into the thousands. Every play will affect the outcome of multiple
props. They are offered as ways to further enhance the experience of watching the
game and provide opportunities for profits.
The best advice for playing the
props is to shop, shop and shop some more. Each property will put its individual
slant on the props and there will be opportunities for getting better value by comparing
the props at the different properties.
The preference here is to look for
head to head props as opposed to selecting one result from a list of 5, 10 or even
more possible outcomes such as the player to score the first TD of the game or the
combination of winning team and final margin. Although the payoff on these multiple
outcome props far exceed the head to head props you have a much better chance of
collecting on the props that offer just two possible outcomes. A secondary preference
within the head to head props is to look to play props that pay even money or better
since for the most part the nature of the Super Bowl makes many of the props no better
than 50/50 random occurrences such as the team to punt first or to make the initial
first down. At the same time a well thought out analysis of how the game might unfold
can be profitable in quite a number of the props.
Another way to approach
props is to pair them off. An example is to look at playing whether each QB's first
pass will be either complete or incomplete. Usually books have this proposition priced
with ‘complete' as the favorite for both quarterbacks. Playing the ‘incomplete' at
a plus price for each means that you only need one of them to hit to show a profit.
Considering that both quarterbacks are likely to face considerable pressure and perhaps
have a case of nerves early in the game suggests that the likelihood of both passers
completing their first passes is less than the possibility that one or both of them
will throw incompletions initially. At the Hilton, for example, the line for Manning's
first pass to be complete opened -160, the incomplete +140. For Brady the complete
opened -250, the incomplete +210. Not surprisingly, the "complete" has
already been bet up for both QBs, making the "incomplete" even more attractive.
For these so called "tandem" props you need just one of the two to hit
in order to show an overall profit on the pair.
Propositions concerning the
last team to score in the first half, the team making the most field goals and similarly
worded props should be approached by looking to play on the underdog half of the
prop due to the uncertain status of the conditions that might develop during the
game such as which team will receive the opening kickoff. Recall that the line has
New England a 12 point favorite. The "value" will be on the Giants in many
of the propositions because the public will have an easier time making a case for
the Patriots as the ‘favored' team in props involving things happening first. The
reality is that a great number of such propositions are independent of who you think
will win the game or perform better.
Finally there are the inter-sport propositions
that match up an event from the Super Bowl against an event from the NBA, NHL, European
soccer, PGA golf, etc. Again, some astute analysis can provide an edge in making
wagers on these ‘fun' propositions. Surely from amongst the literally hundreds of
propositions being offered even the most cynical person can find something to his
or her liking.
Some of the initial thoughts on this season's props include
the following.
One interesting tandem prop this season involves both punters
and whether each will have at least one touchback. The "No" is a solid
favorite for both. Whereas New England's offense is so potent and they often opt
to "go for it" rather than punt on fourth down when in enemy territory
the Patriot part of the prop might not offer much value. The Giants, however, are
more likely to punt from around the New England 35 or 40 yard line rather than go
for a first down or attempt a FG since failure would give the potent Pat's offense
great field position. Thus a punt might well head into the endzone if P Feagles is
unable to hit the coffin corner. At a price of + 175 the Yes for a touchback occurring
has value.
Above all, remember that in the eyes of the most serious, professional
bettors the Super Bowl is just another game and one that often offers little wagering
value because the line is strong and heavily influenced by ‘public' money.
Have
fun. Enjoy the game. Good luck. And remember that the 2008 NFL season is just six
months away.
Will the Team That Scores First
Win the Game -- "NO" is Priced at + 180 (Hilton) -- There have been
numerous instances of the first score in Super Bowls being made by the team that
ultimately loses the game in recent years and has, in fact, happened in each of the
last 3 and in 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls. More to the specifics of this game, New
England is clearly favored to win the game and another prop is simply labeled
"Which Team Will Score First" with the Giants priced at + 165,
15 cents lower than this prop. The 15 cents difference is worth taking since
the likelihood of the Giants both scoring first AND winning the game is a
longshot (actually priced at +800). -- LOSER
DUAL or TANDEM
Proposition -- Will Each Quarterback's First Pass Be Complete or Incomplete -- "Incomplete"
is Priced at + 140 for New York's Eli Manning and + 210 for New England's Tom Brady
(Hilton). Again, we need just ONE of the QBs to throw an incomplete pass in his
first attempt for this prop to show a profit. Note that an interception is considered
as an incompletion. -- Net WINNER (Manning Complete, Brady Incomplete)
Team
to Make the First 1st Down of the Second Half -- New York is Priced at + 160 (Hilton)
-- This can pretty much be considered an even prop since the team to receive the
opening kickoff of the second half has the first opportunity to run plays from scrimmage
so getting a plus price on either side is worth playing, especially at more than
+ 125. -- LOSER
Will a Jeff Feagles Punt Results in a Touchback --
"Yes" is priced at + 175 (Hilton) -- The Giants averaged over 5 punts
per game this season. Although only a small percentage have resulted in touchbacks
the Giants may well play conservatively if they cross midfield and are faced with
a fourth down between New England's 30 and 40 yard line. Rather than "go for
it" on fourth down or attempt a long FG -- punting may represent a better option
than failing to make the first down and turning the ball over to the Pats in good
field position. As such, a touchback is quite possible when punting from a relatively
short distance from the end zone. -- LOSER
Will Either Team
Score in the Final 3 1/2 Minutes of the Game -- "No" is priced at + 145
(Hilton) -- Since my opinion of this game calls for a one sided New England win
I am expecting that the Patriots will be running out the clock during the final few
minutes of the game, or that the New England defense will be "pumped up"
to deny the Giants a late score to preserve the existing margin at that time and
the Giants will be playing out the string. Of course, if this game is competitive
in the final quarter then scoring towards the end is likely, but the attractive plus
price fits in nicely with a game that is expected to be one sided, both in terms
of the pointspread and in terms of my forecast. -- LOSER
Total
Interceptions in the Game -- OVER 2 1/2 -- Priced at + 175 (Hilton) -- Although
New England rarely turns the ball over, and the Giants' Eli Manning tosses no interceptions
in their three Playoff wins, the chances for such miscues are heightened in a game
that figures to feature an above average number of passing plays by both the favored
team (New England) and the team that figures to have to play from behind (Giants).
In fact, each of the last three Super Bowls have featured exactly 3 interceptions
and there have been 3 or more interceptions in 11 of the past 16 Super Bowls. --
LOSER
Last Score of the First Half Will Be Other Than a Touchdown
-- Priced at + 120 (Hilton) -- Essentially this calls for the final scoring play
before halftime to be a FG although a safety would also be a winning play. Both offenses
can move the ball quickly and thus the chances are heightened that even if a drive
begins with a minute to go before halftime that either QB will be able to get his
team in position to score. Aside from a big play, a field goal becomes a likely possiblity
if the drive can move the ball inside the opposition's 40 yard line. In the 41 previous
Super Bowls the final score of the first half has been a touchdown 22 times, a field
goal 17 times and a safety twice. -- LOSER
Will New England
QB Tom Brady Throw a Touchdwon Pass in the First Quarter -- "Yes" is Priced
at + 110 (Hilton) -- The expectation is that the Patriots will come out throwing,
often using a 5 receiver formation. Brady will look to test the vulnerable Giants'
secondary early and often and thus the likelihood for a scoring strike on one of
New England's likely three first quarter possessions makes this proposition attractive
at Even Money or better. -- LOSER
Player to Get a Reception
First -- Amani Toomer vs Randy Moss -- Toomer is Priced at + 175 (Hilton) --
Much depends upon the team to receive the opening kickoff. It is quite likely that
on their opening drives the Patriots will look for Moss and the Giants will look
for Toomer. At the price of + 175 there is value on going with Toomer as the odds
are really 50/50 as to the team that will get the opening kickoff. -- WINNER
Special
Pointspread -- New England - 17 1/2 -- Priced at + 180 (Hilton) -- It would not
be a surprise if New England wins in a blowout. 10 of their 18 wins this season have
been by 21 or more points. In Super Bowl XXIX the San Francisco 49ers were 19 point
favorites over the San Diego Chargers. The Niners won that game 49-26. It can be
argued that this season's Patriots are as good as, if not better than, the 1994 49ers.
It can also be argued that the Chargers of that season (outscored their foes 381-306
while going 11-5 and winning the AFC West was a better team than the '07 Giants who
were 10-6 and were a Wild Card, outscoring their foes just 373-351. At the current
pointspread of - 12 the Pats are laying a touchdown less than the '94 49ers. -- LOSER
Will
Randy Moss Score 2 or More Touchdowns -- "Yes" is Priced at + 240 (Hilton)
-- With 3 TD receptions during the 16 game regular season Moss averaged more
than one TD catch per game. The Matchups favor Moss against the Giants' secondary
even though he will draw double coverage much of the game. Still, as we saw in their
week 17 meeting, Moss has the ability to get behind the covereage and the size and
strength to pull down contested balls. With the Patriots likely to throw the ball
alot, and with Moss' proven ability, getting more than 2-1 on this prop is attractive.
-- LOSER
Will there be at Least One Special Teams or Defensive
Touchdown? -- "Yes" is priced at + 160 (Hilton) -- There has been at
least one special teams or defensive touchdown scored in 4 of the last 7 Super Bowls,
9 of the last 15 and in 18 of the 41 Super Bowls, making the generous plus price
attractive, especially in a game that handicaps as both being high scoring and featuring
an above average number of pass attempts. Last year it happened on the opening kickoff.
-- LOSER