COLLEGE FOOTBALL SMART MONEY MOVES

Data for 1990 through 1998


The following charts show the results of having followed the so-called Smart Money Moves in College football, season by season, team by team, over the past nine seasons.

A "Smart Money Move" occurs when the Closing Line is more than one point from the Opening Line as charted at the Stardust Race & Sports Book in Las Vegas, NV. If Team A opens as a 4 point favorite and closes as a 6 point favorite such a move is charted as a 2 point move and the move makes the Favorite an even larger Favorite. THe result of this move is charted as how the Favorite fared vs. the Closing Line of - 6. If the Favorite won by more than six points the move is charted as a correct move (represented under the 'R' column in the following charts, for 'Right Move'). If the Favorite won by 5 points or less, or lost outright, such a move is a 'Wrong Move' and is reflected in the 'W' column in the charts. If the Favorite won by exactly 6 points the result is a 'Push' and such results are charted in the 'P' column in the charts.

The results are charted from the perspective of both teams and are identical in the a move from -4 to -6 is a "Smart Money Move' ON the Favorite and AGAINST the Underdog. If the Favorite covers the move was a RIGHT move for both teams since the move suggested that the Favorite would cover and that the Underdog would not cover, which was the case. In the same way if the Underdog covered in our example it would be a WRONG move for both teams.

Obviously a line move from -8 to - 5 would be a move towards the Underdog and would be charted as a RIGHT move for both teams if the Underdog covers the +5 and a WRONG move if the Underdog does not cover. The same thing can be phrased by saying a RIGHT move occurs if the Favorite covers the -5 and the Underdog does not cover that number.

There are two charts which follow. The first chart shows the results of line moves by TEAM for each season from 1990 through 1998, and totals the moves for the nine seasons. The second charts shows the data by the magnitude of the move, season by season and in total. A secondary chart summarizes the Magnitude of Move data by looking at various sized groups of magnitudes.

Enjoy the data and hopefully use it well during this and coming seasons. By the way, we hope to 'tidy up' the data within the next week or so in order that it may be visually more pleasing to the eye. But we wanted to get the information to you as quickly as possible and take care of fine tuning the formatting afterwards.


1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1990-1998
TEAMRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPPCT.
AIR FORCE2302617102304202101301306202724153%
AKRON4212302401104201200503403202025144%
ALABAMA U3302602106101300303102402502127044%
ALA-BIRMINGHAM00000000000000000000012032044050%
ARIZONA ST3301306004403401202302300402226046%
ARIZONA U3202505202404301203103207303024056%
ARKANSAS ST1201202101401402002112204201618147%
ARKANSAS U1201201102201205104402204402120051%
ARMY3202703103102102102301102602023047%
AUBURN U4303201401203203302303212302224148%
BALL STATE2001405001201312002201104401916154%
BAYLOR0203203502303111305104304402524151%
BOISE ST000000120220000000120120120610038%
BOSTON COLLEGE3302404215201402104202204202722155%
BOWLING GREEN1301104103101101202101302301616050%
BUFFALO000000000000000000000000000000N/A
BYU2503702402304202203103101112226146%
C MICHIGAN4111400303100104101106204202316159%
CALIFORNIA2503201003302400001100103201518045%
CENT FLORIDA00000000000000000000033024057042%
CINCINNATI2304202201102202101302405202120051%
CLEMSON1501801100002300202302223201226232%
COLORADO ST3302203205206402001204301402722055%
COLORADO U4305405202203302203203203403024056%
DUKE3202303303102403112401203302223149%
E CAROLINA U4304202202003404112204103202817162%
E MICHIGAN1112203501101102203402104201919150%
FLORIDA ST3403405302203203102504201502628048%
FLORIDA U3303304514404102404005301303026154%
FRESNO STATE3203301302402103203201403202123048%
GEORGIA TECH1201504202203201400401206201925043%
GEORGIA U0400603400204302003401205401829038%
HAWAII U3403511402305403204401503402535142%
HOUSTON U1300204303402205201402404402228044%
IDAHO U000000110310000000210210230107059%
ILLINOIS U4103404405205501403101302202826052%
INDIANA U3114201201504601202211202201924244%
IOWA STATE3406200505302402205108203403427056%
IOWA U2106204203303202402103304102919060%
KANSAS ST5304104202002214204107104403616169%
KANSAS U3407301402301300004103302002321052%
KENT U2202300302201200205004105202117055%
KENTUCKY U2104504100201201201104104102116057%
LOUISIANA TECH3202201201203103300301203601723043%
LOUISVILLE2403302211401201402201404201727139%
LSU1306405104204302203104302403123057%
MARSHALL00000000000000000000053032085062%
MARYLAND U1112202201300600002403210401124231%
MEMPHIS ST2502501202214101101300101201422139%
MIAMI FLA3503503301113104301303304202526149%
MIAMI OHIO1206303301202311303213002102219254%
MICHIGAN ST3103303203201201203301101701923045%
MICHIGAN U3102603103302402402201102402026043%
MID TENNESSEE000000000000000000000000000000N/A
MINNESOTA U4103303303102401213203301302322151%
MISSISSIPPI ST1504302201102202202103110501722144%
MISSISSIPPI U6303000100201200204203310201717150%
MISSOURI U3405200505202301502200301601932037%
N CAROLINA ST3203302502302200012301202501725140%
N CAROLINA U2400201602302102114101303301724141%
N ILLINOIS1102402201203202303013302301920149%
NAVY2101302401404304203300202401926042%
NE LOUISIANA00000000000000013001011022047036%
NEBRASKA U5106101302404014108405503303822163%
NEVADA RENO000000000000000000000000000000N/A
NEW MEXICO ST6303303202105201002313202202718160%
NEW MEXICO U3302402207105404102101205103119062%
NORTH TEXAS100000000000000220130310240910047%
NORTHWESTERN5403202216101301404200202302423151%
NOTRE DAME1202204201101302202200302101518045%
OHIO STATE4201305413207202404100304203023157%
OHIO U4203100201404101304101201301919050%
OKLAHOMA ST5302301403500114302404401502232141%
OKLAHOMA U1302301307303602403204302202529046%
OREGON ST3102403113501203103203101302220152%
OREGON U3201403305502402005100305102623053%
PENN STATE2214403302404302206002002302721156%
PITTSBURGH2300605303105102502103303302526049%
PURDUE U3205301201101501513203301601929140%
RICE2303404404203302005202201502625051%
RUTGERS2001301303301401111603105201823144%
S CAROLINA U4103402102202800203402102402027043%
SAN DIEGO ST3602203403105203003303102302722055%
SAN JOSE ST2603602201202001102210404201725140%
SMU4204302106400302203403102102621055%
SOUTHERN CAL1202405203405203102302004402722055%
SOUTHERN MISS2404301303201301102402402301827040%
STANFORD1102505402100402203100004001918051%
SW LOUISIANA1403200301200204102405303401925043%
SYRACUSE2103205212200502204114103302519257%
TCU5004303404302502102300001202321052%
TEMPLE3312505201005200113102102402319255%
TENNESSEE U2404001103503004303506202502825053%
TEXAS A&M4103505302502300103406400502531045%
TEXAS EL PASO2201504102300204104113201402121150%
TEXAS TECH6001302205101211102404201302318156%
TEXAS U2003302206103302502604303402727050%
TOLEDO2403503201302101203304203202224048%
TULANE1404503103202303103215102602625151%
TULSA2304402102101302003202301301920049%
UCLA2202305114202203101304102402519157%
UNLV000000000000000000000000000000N/A
UTAH STATE2502203303204002002202301402121050%
UTAH U3403303305103001305205103503122058%
VANDERBILT4301401301303302203104203302224048%
VIRGINIA TECH1502303404112402501301405202131140%
VIRGINIA U5202301202502401300401205401929040%
W MICHIGAN1403101501000300102102001201117039%
WAKE FOREST4203503203102201212303306302723154%
WASHINGTON ST1201304302504212303204103302424150%
WASHINGTON U4204404102303202204104103013016165%
WEST VIRGINIA2303203023112502312606204202724453%
WISCONSIN U3403003004004304203400201202517060%
WYOMING2212204105203405202514501302826252%
BROWN1102302401001003001302300001314048%
COLUMBIA1102301201402102001214100001414150%
CORNELL0303402101202100101202100001115042%
DARTMOUTH3202103200001101003202200001510060%
HARVARD1101603400201202201213100001220138%
PENNSYLVANIA220510310100010010120210000149061%
PRINCETON1201200301103203003201100001313050%
YALE120410210110400300312200000206277%
DISCONTINUEDS141101115016150151201202500000000005960050%
TOTALS294294830637623082881029226242662848218212102902721429625062883342255825726450%
Magnitude 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1990-1998
of MoveRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPPCT.
1.5 Point Move353803651036291463603435033332404023542048410343345550%
2.0 Point Move3930339351423622929040331353314544235282313413353021353%
2.5 Point Move192101621026310262202724122110192002816026260209192152%
3.0 Point Move15250162302011218241132717171151511919119250142186743%
3.5 Point Move8701316011150860860350951125071307978150%
4.0 Point Move1013114220780107046064145098051006983245%
4.5 Point Move4405703505312401105213201702935245%
5.0 Point Move3506806503103511104201302502935145%
5.5 Point Move400410120110000100210310230189067%
6.0 Point Move530210100000210000110300010147067%
6.5 Point Move30002001000000000000001000034043%
7.0 Point Move10001010001000001001000021045044%
7.5 Point Move10020001001000000010000000042067%
8.0 Point Move0100000000000100000000000000200%
8.5 Point Move000000000000000000000000000000N/A
9.0 Point Move000000000000000000000000100100100%
9.5 Point Move0000000000000000000000000100100%
TOTALS147147415318811541445146131213314241091065145136714812531441671127912863250%
Magnitude 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1990-1998
of MoveRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPRWPPCT.
1.5 - 3.01081143107130112410751191111114119397944119119511710531241261102910252650%
3.5 - 6.0343214455029350271811922112111251623119017390238247649%
6.0 and more5102301200200100101100103201214046%
TOTALS147147415318811541445146131213314241091065145136714812531441671127912863250%

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