LOGICAL APPROACH

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2010 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

Issue # 7

Games through October 18, 2010



Parity? ...... or Mediocrity? The NFL's 'Fine Line'

It's often been said that there is a fine line between winning and losing in the NFL.

How fine a line? Is there that much of a difference between a team that goes 10-6 and one that goes 6-10? Here's our annual look at how last season's standings would have changed if all games decided by 3 points or less and overtime games decided by a TD had the results reversed. In other words, here's how the standings would have looked if wins by 3 points or less had instead been losses, and losses by 3 points or less had been converted into wins or if games decided by an overtime touchdown had gone the other way. The teams are arranged according to their actual finish in 2009 with their actual and 'revised' records shown.

NFC EAST Act Rev NFC NORTH Act Rev NFC SOUTH Act Rev
Dallas 11-5 12-4 Minnesota 12-4 10-6 New Orleans 13-3 12-4
Philadelphia 11-5 9-7 Green Bay 11-5 12-4 Atlanta 9-7 9-7
N Y Giants 8-8 7-9 Chicago 7-9 6-10 Carolina 8-8 7-9
Washington 4-12 7-9 Detroit 2-14 1-15 Tampa Bay 3-13 5-11
NFC WEST Act Rev AFC EAST Act Rev AFC NORTH Act Rev
Arizona 10-6 11-5 New England 10-6 12-4 Cincinnati 10-6 9-7
San Francisco 8-8 11-5 N Y Jets 9-7 12-4 Baltimore 9-7 12-4
Seattle 5-11 4-12 Miami 7-9 6-10 Pittsburgh 9-7 11-5
St Louis 1-15 4-12 Buffalo 6-10 8-8 Cleveland 5-11 6-10
AFC SOUTH Act Rev AFC WEST Act Rev
Indianapolis 14-2 10-6 San Diego 13-3 9-7
Houston 9-7 8-8 Denver 8-8 9-7
Tennessee 8-8 7-9 Oakland 5-11 1-15
Jacksonville 7-9 4-12 Kansas City 4-12 5-11

Notice that only Atlanta would have finished with the same record as their actual record. The other 31 teams would have had their record adjusted by at least one game. Of those 31 teams 16 would have had either 1 more win or 1 more loss. Obviously even just 1 more win or 1 less loss can make the difference in whether or not a team makes the Playoffs and nearly half the league would have been impacted by more than one game had the close wins been converted to close losses or vice versa.

15 teams would have been impacted by 2 games or more. The most extreme reversal would have been a 4 game turnarounds by 3 teams with Division winners Indianapolis and San Diego fortunate with 4 extra close wins. The Colts could just as easily have been 10-6 as they were 14-2 while the Chargers were very close to being 907 instead of 13-3. Oakland was also the beneficiary of close wins as their 5-11 record could easily have been just 1-15. In fact, in going 5-11 the Raiders were just 14 points away from being 0-16 as their 5 wins were by 4, 3, 3, 3 and 1 point(s). Only 1 of their 11 losses was by less than 6 points and was their 4 point loss in their first game of the season. Don't be surprised if all 3 teams fall back this season.

Let's not overlook the fact that the ability to win close games, or the inability to win them, is an important factor in handicapping these teams in future games as well as the team's own ability to repeat those close wins or losses down the road. Often, teams that benefit from more close wins than narrow losses in one season will suffer more narrow losses than pull out close wins the next season. But that could also be the signal of an even greater improvement or decline ahead.

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: USC - 2 ½ over California - Following their heartbreaking last second loss to Washington a week earlier, USC showed lots of fight at Stanford, only to fall in similar fashion on a last second FG, 37-35. Even with the sanctions, no postseason and a first season coach there remains plenty of NFL caliber talent on the Trojans and have yet to show signs of just mailing it in. They will be tested this week by a solid Cal team off of a solid win over UCLA. USC is relegated to playing spoiler for the balance of the season and they've dominated Cal over the years. The Trojans have won 6 straight and 8 of 9 vs Cal with 4 of the last 5 wins by 14 points and the other by a TD. Although USC was a power in those seasons Cal was also a solid winning program and has gone to Bowl for 7 straight seasons. This is the shortest price by which USC has been favored in over a decade but the talent edge is still significant. USC wins 30-20.

Other Featured College Selections

Army + 7 over Rutgers (at East Rutherford, NJ) -

At 4-2 Army has a real shot at both their first winning season and a Bowl bid since going 10-2 in 1996. Coach Ellison improved the culture in his first season at West Point with a 5-7 record in 2009, their best since 4-7 in 1997. Rutgers has struggled for much of the early season, especially on offense, and finally covered their first spread of the season in last week's come from behind win over conference foe UConn. This is their final non-Big East game of the season with 6 straight conference contests on deck, including a revenge game next week at Pitt. These teams are meeting for the fourth straight season and Army has narrowed the gap, losing 41-6 in 2007, 30-3 in 2008 and 27-10 last season. The neutral site for this contest should attract a nice pro-Army crowd and the Cadets are playing with confidence with road wins at Duke and Tulane already in the books. They have next week off before facing VMI in what would the their Bowl eligible win if they can pull the upset here. Clearly Army will be well motivated and well prepared for this game whereas Rutgers may take the field overconfident with their eyes on upcoming Big East play. Upset alert! Army wins 27-23.

KENTUCKY + 5 over South Carolina - Gamecock Nation can be excused for partying all week following the biggest win in South Carolina history as they totally outplayed Alabama in their 35-21 upset home win last week. Clearly a letdown can be expected and may well materialize despite the best efforts of coach Spurrier to keep his team focused on the SEC East race. Carolina has dominated this series, winning all 10 games over the past decade and going 7-3 ATS. But 7 of the games have been decided by 7 points or less and Kentucky has been a program on the rise in recent seasons, looking for a fifth straight Bowl this season. UK actually has both the better offense and defense statistically than South Carolina, despite perceptions to the contrary. Spurrier continues to play mind games with QB Garcia and that can be a negative factor as Carolina plays just their second road game of the season (losing earlier at Auburn while going a perfect 4-0 at home). Kentucky took Auburn to the wire last week at home before losing 37-34 on a late FG. There is not that great a talent gap between the programs and Kentucky should bring the better focus as they catch the 'Cocks off that huge win. It's their best chance for their first win over the "other" USC since 1999. Kentucky wins 34-28.

SAN DIEGO STATE + 1 ½ over Air Force - Both teams are enjoying successful seasons. Air Force is ranked in the Top 25 while San Diego State has shown significant improvement in coach Hoke's second season by the Pacific. The teams have similar overall stats but SDSU has the more potent passing offense and the better rushing defense while Air Force has a dominant rushing attack and is better at stopping the pass. Strength vs strength always makes for an interesting matchup. Air Force has won 3 straight after SDSU had won 4 of 5. The Force has TCU on deck (who they nearly upset last season, losing 20-17) while SDSU has a more manageable upcoming schedule, albeit on the road at MWC lightweights New Mexico and Wyoming. Air Force plays football typical of service academies, emphasizing patience and execution while avoiding mistakes. Under Hoke SDSU is also showing more discipline. At 3-2 they have their sights set on their first Bowl game since 1998. A win here goes a long way towards that goal. San Diego State wins 24-20.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)
MARSHALL + 5 ½ over Central Florida [Wed] KANSAS + 2 ½ over Kansas State [Thur]
CLEMSON - 14 ½ over Maryland Vanderbilt + 16 over GEORGIA
FLORIDA - 7 over Mississippi State Baylor - 1 over COLORADO
Unlv + 3 over COLORADO STATE Western Michigan + 24 over NOTRE DAME
NORTHERN ILLINOIS - 14 ½ over Buffalo VIRGINIA + 6 ½ over North Carolina
NAVY - 2 over Smu Texas + 9 ½ over NEBRASKA
MICHIGAN + 3 ½ over Iowa WASHINGTON + 1 over Oregon State
Utep + 2 ½ over UAB TOLEDO - 2 over Kent State
Oklahoma State + 3 ½ over TEXAS TECH Southern Miss - 14 over MEMPHIS
WISCONSIN + 4 over Ohio State Arkansas + 3 ½ over AUBURN
Nevada - 7 over HAWAII Middle Tennessee + 19 over GEORGIA TECH


The Rest (Leans)
WEST VIRGINIA - 10 ½ over South Florida [Thur] LOUISVILLE + 3 over Cincinnati [Fri]
DUKE + 19 over Miami Fla SYRACUSE Pick 'em over Pittsburgh
CENTRAL MICHIGAN - 13 over Miami Ohio Illinois + 7 over MICHIGAN STATE
Minnesota + 5 ½ over PURDUE EAST CAROLINA + 7 over North Carolina State
Mississippi + 21 ½ over ALABAMA OKLAHOMA - 23 ½ over Iowa State
Bowling Green + 20 over TEMPLE BALL STATE - 14 over Eastern Michigan
OHIO U - 17 over Akron Boston College + 22 over FLORIDA STATE
VIRGINIA TECH - 22 ½ over WAKE FOREST LOUISIANA TECH + 1 over Idaho
TCU - 29 over Byu WASHINGTON STATE + 23 ½ over Arizona
Utah - 20 ½ over WYOMING TEXAS A&M - 3 ½ over Missouri
RICE + 9 ½ over Houston TULSA - 19 over Tulane
Boise State - 39 over SAN JOSE STATE FRESNO STATE - 31 over New Mexico State
INDIANA - 12 over Arkansas State UL Monroe + 2 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
TROY - 18 ½ over UL Lafayette NORTH TEXAS + 5 over Florida International

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: NEW ENGLAND - 3 over Baltimore - New England suffered perhaps their worst loss in the Belichick/Brady era when Baltimore ousted the Pats from last season's Playoffs with a one sided 33-14 rout that was decided in the first quarter. This game has been circled on New England' schedule ever since and the Pats were playing excellent football before last week's Bye. Baltimore is also playing well and followed up their physical win at Pittsburgh with a fairly easy home win last week over Denver. The Ravens have played the Pats tough in recent years and came closest to ending New England's perfect regular season in 2007 and also lost by just 6 points during the 2009 regular season. The Ravens can certainly win this game and will not be intimidated in the least. But the bitter taste left by that Playoff lost and the extra week to prepare are a couple of strong intangibles that combine with a very talented and well coached team that has performed better defensively than many expected. Fundamentally the Ravens' defense will face their biggest QB challenge of the season. And despite perceptions to the contrary, the Pats' offense has the better ground game, both in yards per game and per rush basis. New England wins 27-17.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

HOUSTON - 5 over Kansas City - Kansas City was impressive in defeat last week, allowing Indianapolis' potent offense to tally just one TD and that came late in their 19-9 road loss. That Houston lost to the Giants was not a shock as the Texans were short FG favorites. The surprise was that the game was decided early as the Giants blew out Houston 34-10. The Chiefs are clearly a team on the rise but they are in a tough spot here against another team that seems improved over last season based on their play earlier this season. Houston's edge is on offense while the Chiefs have the better defense. Houston has the better balanced offense. Their defensive weakness has been against the pass, something the Chiefs do poorly (just 158 ypg). The Chiefs have played the weak schedule with their 3 wins coming against teams that are just 3-9 vs the rest of the NFL. Houston's 3 wins have been vs teams that are 8-4 against everyone else. Houston has a Bye next week so they should be fully focused to get back on track. The play of underdogs thus far keeps this price relatively cheap. The Texans should be able to extend late. Houston wins 27-16.

PHILADELPHIA - 3 over Atlanta - The Philly QB situation was not as dire as expected last week with Kolb leading the Eagles to a win at San Francisco Sunday night a good sign of depth until Vick returns from injury. Atlanta is looking like a serious contender and their 4-1 start has been the result of both an efficient offense and a solid defense. Their lone loss was at Pittsburgh in OT to open the season. These teams are similar statistically in most areas. The Falcons appear to be better at running the football and at stopping the run based on per game averages but Philly actually rates better on offense on a per rush basis (5.4 vs 4.1) while the teams are equal on defense (4.2). The Eagles may have some extra motivation after dropping their first two home games where they've gone 6-2 each of the past 2 seasons. Atlanta has won both of their last 2 road games. Philly defeated Atlanta 34-7 in Atlanta last season and 27-14 at home in 2008 and has won 5 of the last 6 meetings since 2000, each by at least a TD. With the Eagles favored by a FG they are well positioned to win as they catch the Falcons in a second straight road game. Philadelphia wins 24-17.

MINNESOTA - 1 ½ over Dallas - In what can aptly be called the "Desperation Bowl" a pair of disappointing 1-3 teams square off at the site where the Vikings routed Dallas 34-3 in last season's Playoffs. Minnesota is off of Monday night's 29-20 loss at the Jets while Dallas limps in off of an ugly home loss to Tennessee, highlighted by mental mistakes and sloppy play. Dallas will be motivated to avenge the Playoff loss but the 'Boys have not looked sharp this season. Neither team is playing as well now as they were then and the loser of this game will face a tough uphill battle to even make the 2010 Playoffs. Statistically Dallas has the edge offensively although the Vikings have been much better at running the football and at stopping the run. Dallas' forte has been the pass but the Vikes are allowing just 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Minnesota has the better defensive stats but Dallas is still better than the league average. The addition of WR Moss gives the Vikes a huge upgrade and should create a more balanced offense. Viking QB Favre has shown better leadership skills than his Dallas counterpart Romo which could be decisive. Minnesota wins 31-23.

Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
N Y GIANTS - 10 over Detroit Seattle + 7 over CHICAGO
DENVER + 3 over N Y Jets Indianapolis - 3 over WASHINGTON


The Rest (Opinions)
ST LOUIS + 8 ½ over San Diego New Orleans - 4 ½ over TAMPA BAY
GREEN BAY - 3 ½ over Miami PITTSBURGH - 13 ½ over Cleveland
Oakland + 6 ½ over SAN FRANCISCO JACKSONVILLE + 3 over Tennessee (Monday)

Bye Weeks - Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati



Best of the NFL Totals
San Diego/St Louis UNDER 45 Kansas City/Houston OVER 44
New Orleans/Tampa Bay UNDER 44 Atlanta/Philadelphia OVER 41 ½
Cleveland/Pittsburgh UNDER 37 Oakland/San Francisco UNDER 41
Dallas/Minnesota OVER 43 ½ Tennessee/Jacksonville OVER 45

Money Line Recommendations
College: Army KENTUCKY Oklahoma State Arkansas
Pro: NEW ENGLAND Seattle DENVER JACKSONVILLE


NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).