LOGICAL APPROACH

P. O. Box 20405 - - - Las Vegas, NV 89112 - - - (702) 898 - 9802

Visit us on the Web at www.thelogicalapproach.com

2010 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

Issue # 1

Games through September 6, 2010

We begin by repeating this observation every season verbatim. The football off-season seems to shrink each year. With the rapid advances in communication football is in the news year round, enabling us to keep up with developments as they happen. At Logical Approach the football season never really ends and we've been preparing for the 2010 season since February with great anticipation. That anticipation becomes reality within a few days as the college football season begins on Thursday, September 2. No longer does the season begin with just a game or two but in fact between Thursday and Monday 78 FBS (formerly Division I-A) teams will see action in games on the betting board (including 2 conference games!). Another 38 teams will be playing unlined opponents. Only 3 FBS teams (Florida International, Louisiana Monroe and New Mexico State) will not open their 2009 seasons this weekend.

The NFL regular season gets underway a week from this Thursday on September 9 when the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints host the Minnesota Vikings in a rematch of last season's NFC Championship game that went into overtime (and, in fact, spurred a change in overtime rules for future Playoff games).

America's true national pastime, wagering on college and pro football, has returned.

Welcome to the 2010 debut issue of the Logical Approach College & Pro Football Newsletter. We are looking forward to the journey we'll take over the next 5 months as we weave our way through the college and pro football campaigns. Hopefully it will be a pleasant and profitable journey with many more peaks than valleys. That is certainly our intention and we'll do everything in our power to make this our best season ever. The past several seasons have been very rewarding for readers of this Newsletter much more often than not and that success provides even greater impetus to work hard during the off-season. In this issue we kick off our coverage with a look at 39 college games over the Labor Day weekend as well as presenting our annual college football conference by conference and Top 30 forecasts.

Before getting to our previews of the games let's take a few moments to review how our coverage works and what you can expect once the season gets fully under way. In each issue we'll try to lead off with a brief commentary or feature about comings and goings in the world of football. Often we'll present analyses of current trends to further aid us in our handicapping. We'll use this space to try to keep you abreast of new research we're conducting and share with you other useful information you will not find elsewhere.

We'll then preview the upcoming college football schedule, picking the four games we think offer the best early week opportunities for success vs. the pointspread. One of these games will be designated as our Top College Selection of the Week. The other three games will be our Featured Games of the Week. For each of the four games we'll provide an analysis of why we think we've got the correct side. These four games can be considered our college Best Bets for the week. We'll then provide a selection for every other game on the schedule, both games in the regular rotation and those in the 'added' rotation. These games will be classified as either 'Best of the Rest' (which indicates a solid opinion on the game) as 'The Rest' (which indicates only a lean to a side and represents our weakest selections).

A similar process will be used for the pros, with four games designated as NFL Selection of the Week or as Featured Games of the Week. The balance of the schedule will then be rated as either 'Best of the Rest' or 'The Rest.' In the pros we'll also give selections on a few Over/Under plays (Totals). These selections will carry the strength of a 'Best of the Rest' selection (solid opinion).

Note that we will not be able to provide Over/Under selections for college football. Although almost every college game will have Totals posted, these lines are generally not widely posted until midweek. We will, however, be providing college Over/Under selections for Premium Selection Service subscribers.

We also plan to present our top Money Line plays each week, looking especially for underdogs with a solid chance of pulling an upset. We'll have up to four college and four pro Money Line selections each week.

The final feature of each issue will be our weekly Spreadsheet which will provide you with key statistical information to assist you in doing your own evaluations. In a few weeks we'll bring you a comprehensive explanation of the data we provide with 2009's final data before beginning our weekly 2010 data.

In order to best use the Selections in this Newsletter you should be aware of the lines we use in making our selections and how much movement is allowed before a Selection becomes a 'No Play.' In a change from prior seasons we will be using what can best referred to as the most " Widely Available Line " -- which is not necessarily the most favorable line for our selection but rather a line that is reflective of the line at most Nevada and Offshore Sports Books at the time we go to press -- usually in mid morning on Tuesdays.

The following chart shows how much movement is allowed for each level of selection before that Selection becomes not playable:

College/Pro Selection of the Week	No more than a 3.0 point move (Except 3 & 7) *
College/Pro Featured Game	No more than a 3.0 point move (Except 3 & 7)
College/Pro Best of the Rest	No more than a 2.0 point move (Except 3 & 7)
College/Pro The Rest	No more than a 1.0 point move (Except 3 & 7)
Pro Overs & Unders	No more than a 2.0 point move

Thus if we make Chicago a Top or Featured Selection of the Week over Detroit and the line we use is Chicago - 4, the line can move as high as Chicago - 7 before we'd have a 'No Play' on that game. If Chicago is a Best of the Rest Selection 'da Bears would not be a play if the line moved above - 6. And as a 'The Rest' Selection Chicago would be unplayable at - 5 ½ or higher. Note that the movement allowed for NFL Overs/Unders is the same as for 'Best of the Rest.'

* Two exceptions to the allowable point moved are the numbers 3 and 7 . Regardless of the category of a selection, line movements are never to be made off of or across the numbers 3 and 7. Thus a Featured Selection we may have lined at - 2 ½ CAN ONLY MOVE UP TO -3. IT BECOMES A NO PLAY AT - 3 ½.

In a moment we'll preview this weekend's opening college games but first we wish to remind our seasonal subscribers that they should have received separate notification of the availability of this Newsletter on our Internet website. You should have received an Access Code that will enable you to view this Newsletter online several days before you receive it in the mail. If you are a full season subscriber and have not yet received your Code (sent by email), please call our offices at (702) 898-9802 or contact us by e-mail at logical7@cox.net. This feature is not available for single issue purchasers.

Except as noted, the following college games will be played on Saturday, September 4.

COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK - FRESNO STATE - 2 ½ over Cincinnati - A new era begins for Cincy as former coach Kelly, under whom the Bearcats were 33-7 in his 3 seasons, is off to Notre Dame. He did not leave the cupboard bare but there will be a period of transition under new coach Jones. Fresno State has been a solid program for many years and coach Hill routinely has his team contending in the WAC and his Bulldogs have gone Bowling in 9 of the last 10 seasons. This is a tough spot for Cincy to open the season - first game for a new coach, on the road vs a quality program. QB Collaros did start several games last season for Cincy when start QB Pike was injured. This is also a revenge game for Fresno which lost 28-20 at Cincy last season despite outgaining Cincy 443-357, arguably outplaying the Bearcats. Although RB Mathews is now playing for the NFL Chargers, Fresno has a wealth of talent at the position and should again be able to establish the run. Both the intangibles and fundamentals favor the hosts in this season opener. Fresno State wins 27-17.

FEATURED COLLEGE SELECTIONS -

MICHIGAN - 3 over Connecticut - The pressure is clearly on coach Rodriguez this season at Michigan and it likely takes a minimum of 8 wins or the coach who left West Virginia for seemingly green pastures may be out after just 3 seasons. It appeared as though 2008's 3-9 debacle was a fluke when Michigan started 5-2 last season but an 0-5 finish with several very ugly losses only served to intensify the criticism and the pressure, which was not lessened by some issues raised by the NCAA this past offseason. Clearly Michigan has some outstanding talent and there are many reasons to expect 2010 to be a winning season and a return to a Bowl game. UConn has developed into a solid program barely a decade after their program was elevated to FBS/I-A status. They are well coached and fundamentally sound though not flashy. The short line is more a reflection of Michigan's recent history of underachieving and Uconn's ability to overachieve. But based on talent the line is short. And considering this is the start of a new season it is reasonable to expect a fully focused effort from Michigan as they bring an angry, underdog mentality into this season. Michigan wins 31-17.

UNLV + 21 over Wisconsin - As you will read shortly, there is a high regard for Wisconsin in this corner and their prospects for this season. The Badgers return virtually all of a well balanced offense that both ran and passed for over 200 yards per game in 2009. They should be equally as potent this season with a defense also expected to be significantly improved. But this is also the start of a new era in UNLV football which recruited reasonably well under former coach Sanford. But Sanford seemed overmatched as a head coach and his teams played sloppy and undisciplined football, often committing mental errors that compounded the physical miscues. Unlike Sanford, new coach Hauck has previous head coaching experience with impressive results at FCS/I-AA Montana, three times reaching the FCS Championship game in 7 seasons. In prepping for the season he has already instilled discipline and a new attitude that may not be evident in their 2010 record but will be clear from UNLV being much more competitive than in recent seasons. That should be the case here as Wisconsin in what is becoming an intersectional rivalry. This is the fifth meeting since 2002 and although Wisky is 3-1, the 3 wins have been by 20, 15 and 7 points and came against less talented UNLV teams than they will face here. Look for Wisky to win but for UNLV to show well. Wisconsin wins but by just 27-16.

Maryland + 7 over Navy (at Baltimore, MD on Monday, September 6) - The pressure is on Maryland coach Friedgen as anything less than a winning season and a Bowl trip all but assuredly means he'll not return for 2011. For the most part the Terps have fared well since he took over in 2001, with 6 Bowls in his 9 seasons. But last season's dreadful 2-10 season was Maryland's worst campaign since a period in the early 1990'2 when a pair of 2-9 seasons were sandwiched around a 3-8 season. Much of last season's failures were caused by a combination of injuries and inexperience and while injuries cannot be forecast, the experience gained in 2009 should benefit the 2010 squad. Over the past decade Navy's program has become stable. The Midshipmen have been to 7 straight Bowls starting in 2003 which followed seasons of 1-10, 0-10 and 2-10 from 2000 to 2002. The resurgence started under former coach Johnson (now at Georgia Tech) and continued the past two seasons under current boss Niumatalolo. But the facts are that Maryland recruits athletes and thus has an inherent advantage over the service academies whose main edge is disciplined and unselfish play. The only recent meeting was in 2005 when Maryland (- 13) defeated Navy 23-20 in the season opener for both teams. Maryland went on to have a 5-6 season whereas Navy finished 8-4. Even 5 seasons later it's tough to justify more than a 2 TD swing based on the respective talent. Maryland pulls the upset, winning 28-20.

Best of the Rest (Opinions/Recommendations)

IOWA STATE - 4 over Northern Illinois	Florida Atlantic + 14 over ALA-BIRMINGHAM [1]
TOLEDO + 15 over Arizona [2]	Illinois + 11 ½ over Missouri [5]
Northwestern - 5 over VANDERBILT	NOTRE DAME - 11 over Purdue
LOUISVILLE + 3 over Kentucky	KANSAS STATE - 2 ½ over Ucla
Washington + 3 over BYU	Oregon State + 13 over Tcu [7]
Arkansas State + 31 over AUBURN	Virginia Tech + 3 over Boise State [4] [9]

The Rest (Leans/Weak Opinions)

SOUTH CAROLINA - 14 over Southern Miss [1]	OHIO STATE - 28 ½ over Marshall [1]
UTAH - 3 over Pittsburgh [1]	HAWAII + 21 over Usc [1]
Minnesota - 2 ½ over MIDDLE TENNESSEE [1]	Western Michigan + 21 over MICHIGAN ST
FLORIDA - 36 over Miami Ohio	Colorado State + 12 over Colorado [6]
MISSISSIPPI ST - 21 over Memphis	Texas - 29 ½ over RICE
OREGON - 34 over New Mexico	AKRON + 8 ½ over Syracuse
OKLAHOMA ST - 15 over Washington St	ALABAMA - 39 over San Jose State
Utah State + 3 over OKLAHOMA	EASTERN MICHIGAN + 9 ½ over Army
North Carolina + 3 over Lsu [8]	GEORGIA - 28 ½ over UL Lafayette
NEBRASKA - 37 over Western Kentucky	North Texas + 24 over CLEMSON
Bowling Green + 14 ½ over TROY	EAST CAROLINA + 8 over Tulsa [3]
Smu + 14 over TEXAS TECH [3]

[1] Thursday, September 2

[2] Friday, September 3

[3] Sunday, September 5

[4] Monday, September 6

[5] at St Louis, MO

[6] at Denver, CO

[7] at Arlington, TX

[8] at Atlanta, GA

[9] at Landover, MD

Money Line Recommendations

College:

MICHIGAN

LOUISVILLE

Maryland

Virginia Tech

Here's our forecast for the 2010 College Football BCS Championship, our projected Top 30 college teams for 2010 followed by our Conference by Conference preview.

The 2004 season presented the strongest case for a college football Playoff. No fewer than FIVE - count 'em, FIVE - FBS/Division I-A teams finished the regular season unbeaten. Auburn, Boise State, Oklahoma, USC and Utah each went into the Bowl season with unblemished records.

The odds against 5 teams going unbeaten in a regular season are long indeed - even 4 teams all going unbeaten is a longshot. But until the FBS higher ups come up with a way to determine it's true champion on the playing field those who follow major college football - and the participants themselves - will be denied the chance to truly, without question, determine who is Number One. In many seasons there will be three, one or no unbeaten teams, giving rise again to debates as to how best to crown a National Champion. In other years there may be one or no unbeaten teams and multiple one-loss teams, obviously each with flaws.

This season begins with Alabama, the defending BCS Champions, held at 5-1 odds at the Las Vegas Hilton Race & Sports Book to repeat. The Crimson Tide, however, are not the favorites. The odds on Ohio State to win the BCS Title are slightly lower, 9-2. The BCS Championship Game will be held in Glendale, Arizona on Monday, January 10, 2011.

Two other teams are held at odds of less than 10-1 with Oklahoma at 6-1 and Florida at 7-1. Boise State is fifth choice at odds of exactly 10-1. These odds were at the Las Vegas Hilton as of August 21, 2010.

In trying to forecast a National Champion generally only teams from the 6 BCS Conferences should realistically be considered. However, the recent success of non-BCS teams such as Boise State, TCU and Utah have made it possible for such team to play for the BCS Title if they happen to start the season rated highly, have an unbeaten season, and no more than one BCS-conference team is unbeaten (and more likely, none).

In the past teams such as Utah or Boise State (each of which was unbeaten during the 2008 regular season but play in non-BCS conferences) could not achieve high enough computer or human rankings even against BCS teams that have one or even sometimes two losses. Fortunately eyes have been opened and some of these consistently strong non-BCS teams have been accorded more respect heading into the season.

In looking at the 6 BCS Conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC) it is worth keeping in mind that the Big East, Big 10 and Pac 10 have built in advantages in that these conferences do not hold a Conference Championship Game after the regular season. That's one less possible upset for a highly ranked team to endure on its way to a National Championship game.

Many pre season prognosticators have Alabama and Ohio State as the top two ranked teams with Boise State, Florida, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon and Texas in the mix. Fashionable "longshot" title contenders include Iowa, TCU and Virginia Tech, although few "expert" observers expect a national champion contender to emerge from either the ACC or Big East.

On one hand It's not that hard to make a case for Alabama winning a second straight SEC Title and again reaching the BCS Title game. The SEC has now won 4 straight BCS Titles with Florida winning twice in addition to 'Bama and LSU. But two factors work against a repeat by the Crimson Tide. First, they must replace 9 of 11 defensive starters. While Alabama is a program that reloads rather than rebuilds and has more than adequate replacements waiting in the wings it still takes time for such a massive reloading to find its rhythm. And a second factor working against the Tide is the overall depth and balance, not just within the SEC but also within their half of the SEC. Although Alabama will likely be favored in most games, an upset or two along the way would not be a major shock. The Tide is well coached and talented enough to reach and perhaps even win the SEC Championship game but there is an excellent chance for a loss or two along the way that will ultimately prevent Alabama from returning to the BCS Title game. An early season road game at offensively potent Arkansas and a later road game at LSU may result in at least one loss. And they host Penn State in their second game of the season which could provide a stiff test for that still gelling defense.

The Pac 10 is another well balanced and deep conference with no standout teams. Last season Oregon won the conference with an 8-1 record and every other team had at least 3 conference losses. Oregon may still be the team to beat but any gap that may have existed between the Ducks and the rest of the conference had narrowed if not been eliminated entirely. Quite likely the Pac 10 winner will have at least 2 conference losses.

The ACC also faces a tough task in producing a BCS Title Game team as there again is no clear cut favorite to win the title. Any one of as many as half a dozen teams can emerge as the team to beat with Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State and Georgia Tech all highly regarded.

In the Big East Pitt is favored to win the conference but games against Miami Fla and at Notre Dame could both result in losses. Add in Pitt's inability to avoid key losses under coach Wannstedt makes it tough to see the Panthers advancing to the BCS Title Game. West Virginia may have an easier route with perhaps only a tough road game at LSU and their 'Backyard Brawl" at Pitt standing in their path.

Which brings us to the Big 10 and Big 12. Both conferences appear very top heavy with Ohio State, Iowa and Wisconsin seemingly well ahead of the rest of the Big 10 although some would put Penn State in that group as well. In the Big 12 Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas seem to be considerably better than the remainder of the conference with Oklahoma State, Missouri and Texas Tech expected to regress and with Baylor and Texas A&M not quite able to make huge enough leaps to challenge that top trio.

Each of the three Big 10 contenders return plenty of experience. Ohio State and Wisconsin return nearly their entire offenses from a season ago and s significant part of their defenses. Iowa returns only about half of their offense (including senior QB Stanzi) but more defensive starters than either the Buckeyes or Badgers. Iowa has the most favorable schedule with home games against Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Ohio State only plays 4 road games this season but could well slip up at either Wisconsin or Iowa. A loss at Wisky would not be a surprise especially after the Badgers outplayed the Buckeyes in Columbus last season, outgaining OSU 2 to 1 (368-184) but losing 31-13 on a couple of big plays. What limits the enthusiasm for Wisconsin winning the Big 10 is scheduling. If they happen to pull what would be a very satisfying upset of Ohio State they must then go on the road to Iowa the very next week. Iowa's schedule is laid out very favorably for a run at a spot in the BCS Title Game.

Nebraska is a solid favorite to win the Big 12 North. Other than an early season road test at what should be a much improved Washington, the Cornhuskers' only true test should be a mid season home game against Texas in what could be a preview of the Big 12 Title game. Nebraska does not face long time rival Oklahoma in the regular season. Oklahoma's toughest test should be their annual tussle with Texas in Dallas, With most of their offense returning, including QB Jones, the Sooners should have the firepower to avenge a tough 3 point loss to Texas last season and earn their first win over the Longhorns since 2007. In what should be a very competitive Big 12 Title game we'd give the edge to Oklahoma as they seek to rebound from a disappointing 8-5 season in 2009 after winning at least 10 regular season games in 8 of the previous 9 seasons. It's a tough call as Nebraska could easily defeat Oklahoma but the deciding factor is Oklahoma having faced tougher competition, both in conference and non-conference games, to give them a "mental toughness" edge.

If our forecast is correct it sets up an attractive matchup between Iowa and Oklahoma for the BCS Title that would end the SEC's domination of this game (to the delight of many outside the South). Both Oklahoma and Iowa would bring strong credentials into such a contest. Oklahoma would have the stronger pedigree of the Bi2 conference but it is a conference likely to be down in 2010. At the same time the Big 10 appears to be enjoying a resurgence over the past couple of seasons. Iowa has won 5 of 8 Bowls under coach Kirk Ferentz, including last season's Orange Bow which was their second straight Bowl win after having their streak of 6 straight Bowl appearances broken when they finished just 6-6 in 2007. Oklahoma has been to 11 straight Bowls under coach Bob Stoops. The Sooners are 5-6 in those Bowls but have lost 5 of their last 7 after winning 3 in a row, including the National Championship in the Orange Bowl following the 2000 season. Since then the Sooners are 0-3 in National Championship/BCS Title games.

The projection here is for Iowa to deal Oklahoma yet another loss Championship Game loss. The Hawkeyes are a well balanced team on both sides of the football and Ferentz is acknowledged as an excellent coach, especially when given added time to prepare. The call is for Iowa to defeat Oklahoma 27-20 and to win the BCS Championship game.

Of course, without a Playoff, Iowa would win what is still truly a "mythical", albeit widely recognized, National Title. If they are the nation's lone unbeaten team the Championship becomes less mythical but if they are one of several teams with no losses, or worse yet just one loss, the debate intensifies anew.

Here's a look at how we forecast the final polls to show the Top 30 teams in the nation next January. In parentheses are the Odds to Win the BCS Title Game courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton as of August 21, 2010.

1	Iowa (25)	11	Texas (15)	21	USC (ineligible)
2	Oklahoma (6)	12	Georgia (40)	22	LSU (40)
3	Florida (7)	13	Virginia Tech (25)	23	West Virginia (75)
4	Boise State (10)	14	Pittsburgh (60)	24	Georgia Tech (75)
5	Wisconsin (40)	15	Stanford (100)	25	Washington (100)
6	Alabama (5)	16	Auburn (50)	26	North Carolina (75)
7	Nebraska (12)	17	Miami Fla (30)	27	Tennessee (1,000)
8	Ohio State (9-2)	18	Notre Dame (50)	28	Florida State (100)
9	Oregon State (100)	19	Oregon (20)	29	Arkansas (40)
10	TCU (15)	20	Penn State (75)	30	Navy (100 - Field)

We now present our picks to win each Conference, the runner up and a potential dark horse contender. We also list the teams from each conference that we expect to be profitable when wagered upon over the entirety of the season (Money Earners) and those we expect to be most costly to their backers (Money Burners).

	ACC (12 Teams)	Big 10 (11)	Big 12 (12)	Big East (8)
Champion	Virginia Tech	Iowa	Oklahoma	Pittsburgh
Runner Up	Florida State	Wisconsin	Nebraska	West Virginia
Dark Horse	North Carolina	Michigan	Kansas State	South Florida
Money Earners	Duke Maryland Miami Fla	Iowa Michigan Wisconsin	Kansas State Oklahoma Oklahoma State	Louisville Syracuse
Money Burners	Clemson Georgia Tech	Indiana Michigan State Penn State	Colorado Missouri Texas Tech	Pittsburgh Rutgers

	Confer. USA (12)	Mid America (13)	Mount. West (9)	Pac 10 (10)
Champion	Houston	Temple	TCU	Oregon State
Runner Up	Central Florida	Northern Illinois	Utah	Stanford
Dark Horse	SMU	Ohio U	San Diego State	Washington
Money Earners	Central Florida SMU Southern Miss	Ball State Eastern Michigan Western Michigan	Colorado State San Diego State UNLV	Arizona Oregon State Washington
Money Burners	East Carolina Tulsa	Buffalo Toledo	B YU New Mexico Wyoming	Arizona State Oregon USC

	SEC (12)	Sun Belt (9)	WAC (9)	Independents (3)
Champion	Florida	Troy	Boise State	n/a
Runner Up	Alabama	Middle Tennessee	Nevada	n/a
Dark Horse	Georgia	Arkansas State	Fresno State	n/a
Money Earners	Georgia LSU Tennessee	Arkansas St Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky	Fresno State Utah State	Army
Money Burners	Alabama Arkansas Auburn	Middle Tennessee Troy	Idaho Louisiana Tech	Navy

In next week's issue we'll preview the NFL for 2010, offering our projections for the season and who we think will make it to the Playoffs and win the Super Bowl in addition to providing week one selections.

Good luck, enjoy the Labor Day holiday weekend and let's have a great season!

Note: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS.

Note: ALL MATERIAL IS PRESENTED AS NEWS MATTER ONLY AND IS NOT TO BE USED IN VIOLATION OF ANY FEDERAL, STATE OR LOCAL LAW(S).