LOGICAL APPROACH

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2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

The Super Bowl XLIV Soap Opera - Starring Vanna White

The long NFL season that began last summer has but one game yet to be played. That game will take place in Miami on February 7 when Super Bowl XLIV kicks off late that Sunday afternoon.

And while the two participants have now been determined there remains one question that needs to be answered in order for the winner of that game to be proclaimed.

Where is Vanna White when you need her?

You may be asking what has Ms White got to do with this season's Super Bowl?

Well, practically everything in terms of crowning the winner.

After all, Ms White is the purveyor of vowels on the long running game show "Wheel of Fortune."

Thus she may need to be called upon to provide the missing vowel, either an "A"" or an "E."

For around 7 PM Las Vegas time on February 7 Sun Life Stadium in Miami shall either be ""Peyton's Place" if the Indianapolis Colts are victorious or "Payton's Place" if the New Orleans Saints pull the upset.

QB Peyton Manning has been the key to the Colts success for much of this past decade.

Coach Sean Payton is the architect behind New Orleans' league leading offense this past season.

Will Super Bowl XLIV indeed be a soap opera filled with twists and turns, highs and lows, ebbs and flows?

Or will the NFL's final showcase be a wire to wire affair with the winner clearly stamping itself as the team to remember from the 2009 season.

Both the Saints and Colts were the top seeds in their Conferences entering the post season and for the first time in 16 seasons the top seeds both advanced to the Super Bowl.

That alone should show you just how hard it has been for form to hold up throughout the NFL Playoffs. Since the NFL increased the Playoffs from 10 to 12 teams in 1990, this is only the third time that both number 1 seeds have made it to the big game. Of the 19 Super Bowls since that change only three times has at least one number 1 seed not made the Super Bowl, including last season when Pittsburgh, the number 2 AFC seed defeated the NFC number 4 seed, Arizona.

Prior to last season there had been four straight Super Bowls in which the lone number 1 seed involved actually was the team that lost. Three of those four top seeds were NFC teams, including Chicago which lost to the Colts in SB XLI. The lone AFC top seed to lose in this period was the 2007 New England Patriots who lost to the New York Giants, the NFC's number 5 seed.

The last number 1 seed from either conference to win a Super Bowl was the 2003 Patriots who defeated Carolina in SB XXXVIII. That marked the only time in 9 Super Bowls that a number 1 seed won. During this 9 year stretch 7 Super Bowl losers were number 1 seeds.

Of course, that will end this season as a number 1 seed will both win and lose Super Bowl XLIV.

After impressive wins in the Divisional round of the Playoffs both Indianapolis and New Orleans struggled to win the Conference Championship games.

First, Indianapolis spotted the upstart New York Jets a 17-13 halftime lead before shutting out the Jets 17-0 in the second half to win 30-17, defeating the league's top ranked defense and outrushing the league's top ranked rushing offense.

A few hours later New Orleans' Garrett Hartley kicked the game winning field goal nearly 5 minutes into overtime to send the Saints to Miami. Although entertaining and dramatic the NFC Championship game was a sloppy contest with a total of 6 turnovers, 5 by the Vikings. Credit is given to the Saints for making the plays needed to prevail but the Saints should be concerned that they needed overtime to win a game in which they were plus 4 in turnovers during regulation.

The Colts were more dominant in their win over the Jets with only a poor second quarter -- in which the Jets scored all 17 of their points -- marring an otherwise solid effort.

Perhaps as a result of what was witnessed on Sunday the Colts opened up as 3 ½ point favorites over the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. The Total opened up at 56.

Within a few hours Sunday evening the line had climbed to as high as 5 ½ at the Las Vegas Hilton but was only 4 ½ at most other Las Vegas and offshore Sports Books. The total remained steady at 56.

Here are some more general facts and observations about the Super Bowl.

Under the current Playoff format there have been 19 previous Super Bowls and the winning team has also covered the pointspread in 13 of those wins, with 4 ATS losses and a pair of pointspread pushes. Interestingly, 3 of the 4 games in which the Super Bowl winner lost to the spread have occurred over just the past 6 Super Bowls, including last season when Pittsburgh defeated Arizona 27-23 but failed to cover as a 6 ½ point favorite.

Although last season's Super Bowl went OVER the Total the prior 4 Super Bowls each stayed UNDER. Each of the past 5 Super Bowls has totaled 50 or fewer points including 2 games that produced just 31 total points. Of the last 19 Super Bowls only 5 would have gone OVER the current game's total of 56 ½ with 3 of those being in the early 1990s. One game (SB XXXI) produced exactly 56 total points.

The favored team has won 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls. To be fair, however, only 3 times has the favored team been less than a 6 point choice. In 7 of these games there has been a double digit favorite and each of the last 4 double digit underdogs has won outright, the most recent having been the 2007 Giants who ended New England's quest of 19-0.

Here are two more indications of the parity (some would say unpredictability) that has developed in recent seasons.

In each of the past 6 Super Bowls the team with the better regular season record has failed to cover the spread, with 3 of those teams losing outright. You have to go back to Super Bowl XXXVII when Tampa Bay defeated Oakland to find a team with the better record hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy and also rewarding their backers at the betting windows.

And the old adage that avoiding turnovers is vital to victory has been challenged in recent seasons as 3 of the last 6 Super Bowl winners LOST the turnover battle in the big game with one game producing an equal number of miscues. Yet in Super Bowls XXV through XXXVII the team committing fewer turnovers won 9 times and in 4 games the turnovers were equal.

So enjoy the buildup to the Big Game. Coverage will be virtually non-stop and many angles will be explored, some of which may actually have a bearing on the game itself.

Certainly the matchup of Colts v Saints has the potential for a wide open and entertaining game. But that's been true of many other Super Bowl matchups over the years and only a handful of such games have unfolded.

Will this year's matchup live up to billing? Or will factors other than the obvious play critical roles in deciding the outcome?

For much of the 2009 season it appeared inevitable that Indianapolis and New Orleans would meet in Super Bowl XLIV. Both were clearly the best teams in their respective Conferences throughout the regular season. New Orleans remained unbeaten through 13 games. The Colts did the Saints one better, starting 14-0 before pulling their starters midway through game 15 and then sitting them out in the regular season finale. Although both teams survived close calls during their unbeaten streaks and each showed vulnerabilities during the course of the regular season both the Saints and Colts regained their swagger in the Playoffs. As stated above, for the first time since 1993 we have the top seeded teams from each conference in the Super Bowl.

Thus, after 256 regular season games and 10 more in the Playoffs the two teams that will vie for the Super Bowl trophy are the two teams that clearly were the two best teams in the regular season.

The AFC continues to be the superior of the two conferences. But just how much better is the AFC?

Here's a statistical look at regular season interconference play over the past 6 seasons, looking at how the AFC has fared both straight up and against the spread vs. the NFC plus average scores and margins in AFC wins and in NFC wins.

To the surprise of nobody the AFC has clearly been the better conference during this time frame but the dominance is not as great as may generally be perceived. The AFC has had a solid edge over the 6 seasons but there have been two dominant seasons (2004 and 2006), one season with a decided edge (2009), two seasons with just a slight edge (2005 and 2008) and one totally even season (2007). Also note how the scoring margin in NFC wins has increased steadily over the 6 seasons from 8.0 points in 2004 to 15.5 points in 2009 - the second straight season in which the NFC's average margin of victory topped that of the AFC!

The gap between the conferences, at least on a global basis, still exists, although it seems to be narrowing.

The super hype for the Super Bowl has begun and will continue right up until kickoff this coming Sunday, scheduled for 3:20 PM Pacific time at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, Florida.

The AFC Champion Indianapolis Colts and NFC Champion New Orleans Saints have spent most of the past week breaking down film and putting together game plans for their showdown.

Much of the teams' intensive work was done before they departed for Miami on Monday as the final week leading up to the game is one filled with many distractions and interruptions from normal routines preparing for games. In this sense the Colts have an edge as they went through a similar experience 3 years ago in preparing for Super Bowl XLI. Recall that in that game Chicago's Devin Hester returned the game's opening kickoff for a touchdown before the Colts came back and ultimately defeated the Bears 29-17, ironically on this very same field in Miami.

Will history repeat for the Colts? Or will New Orleans fulfill its role as a team of destiny and represent the exclamation point of the city's recovery from the disaster of 2005's Hurricane Katrina? We'll learn the answer as evening becomes night this Sunday in Miami.

A week ago this past Sunday the Colts opened as either 3 ½ or 4 point favorites around town and by mid Monday the line had moved up to as high as the Colts being favored by 5 ½ points. After briefly flirting with being a 6 point favorite the Colts begin this week almost universally as a 5 ½ point favorite. There is conjecture in some circles that the line may move as high as Indy by 7 later in the week before what is likely to be an inevitable buyback on the Saints sets in as early Colts backers try for a several points 'middle."

There is some thought that the late "wise guy" money will flow such that in the hours before kick off the line goes back to close at or near the opening number with some suggesting the closing line will be 4 or 4 ½.

There has been much less movement in the Over/Under which opened at 56 and has settled in at 56 ½ at most books with an occasional sighting of 57. It is thought that the Total may climb up a point or two before heading back down and closing quite possibly at 57. This is a secondary key number for high scoring games with final scores of 30-27, 34-23 and 37-20 quite common based on a mixture of field goals and touchdowns and absent safeties and missed extra points.

The Money Line for the Super Bowl is always an interesting phenomenon as in most years the underdog attracts most of the money line play, actually creating value for the favorite. As we go to press Indianapolis can be found on the Money Line at from - 215 to - 240 with the take back on the Saints in the range of + 175 to + 200. This actually represents an increase in the early wagering from an opening Money Line spread of - 170/+ 150 (Las Vegas Hilton). If history is an accurate guide we can expect the money line to peak late this week and then move downwards towards the Saints. We could then see in the hours just before kickoff some late action push the money line back up towards Indy, even if the pointspread comes down.

As has been the case throughout Playoff history, the Super Bowl has tended to be one sided with the average margin of victory being more than 15 points. That had been true for much of the first 30 Super Bowls. But in recent years the Super Bowls have tended to be extremely competitive. New England won each of their 3 Super Bowls by exactly 3 points and lost 2 seasons ago to the Giants by that same margin. Last year's game was a 4 point win by Pittsburgh over Arizona. In the other 14 Super Bowls played since the NFL expanded the Playoffs in 1990 to include a dozen teams, 11 were decided by 10 or more points, including 6 straight in the early to mid 1990's. Yet more than half of the last 12 Super Bowls have been decided by a TD or less including 5 of the last 8, 4 of which were decided by exactly a FG.

Historically the pointspread has not mattered in the Super Bowl -- just pick the winner of the game and you'll cash your bet. That was the case for almost all of the first 29 Super Bowls. But that has changed recently. New England failed to cover in each of their last two wins. Against both Carolina and Philadelphia the Patriots were favored by 7 points and won each by a FG. Additionally, twice in the past 12 years the Super Bowl has resulted in a pointspread push. In fact, beginning with Pittsburgh's cover in its 27-17 loss to Dallas in Super Bowl XXX, the Super Bowl winner has gone just 8-4-2 against the pointspread. It should be noted that the pointspread in 10 of the 14 games was a touchdown or higher. In the two competitively priced Super Bowls in the last decade neither game turned out to be very competitive at all with Baltimore (- 3) routing the New York Giants and Tampa Bay (+ 3.5) doing the same to Oakland.

It had been extremely rare for a Super Bowl to be decided in the final few minutes and almost never did the pointspread come into play. The most noteworthy case of the points coming into play was back in 1979 on the infamous "Black Sunday." In Super Bowl XIII the Pittsburgh Steelers were favored by from 3 ½ to 4 ½ points over the Dallas Cowboys in a game won by the Steelers 35-31. In recent years we have seen quite a number of Super Bowls decided in the final few minutes of the fourth quarter though we are yet to see a Super Bowl go into overtime.

Former Commissioner Pete Rozelle loved the saying that "on any given Sunday" any NFL team can defeat another. Over the past decade or so that saying can clearly be modified to "in any given season" any team can rise from the depths of ineptitude to make it to the Super Bowl. Case in point -- the Carolina Panthers. Just 1-15 in 2001, two seasons later the Panthers were in the Super Bowl, losing by a FG. When the Patriots defeated the Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII it marked the fourth time in five seasons that the Super Bowl Champion was a team that did not even make the Playoffs the previous season. Although the last 5 Super Bowl winners were teams that had been in the Playoffs a season earlier we could again see a team win the big game after not making the playoffs a season earlier if New Orleans, 8-8 in 2008, wins Super Bowl XLIV.

Over the past decade there has been great turnover in Playoff participants from one season to the next. This season's Playoffs included 6 teams that did not make the Playoffs in 2008. Last season saw 7 Playoff teams that had not made the Playoffs in 2007. In 2007 there were 6 Playoff teams that did not make the post season in 2006 after the previous two seasons each saw a turnover of 7 teams.

Is that parity? Or mediocrity? You decide.

These teams last met in the opening game of the 2007 season. It was Indianapolis' first regular season game since defeating Chicago 7 months earlier in Super Bowl XLI. It was also New Orleans' first regular season game since losing at Chicago in the NFC Championship game. Indianapolis was a 5 point home favorite and blew away the Saints 41-10. The Colts gained 452 total yards (164 rushing, 288 passing) while holding New Orleans to just 293 total yards (106 rushing, 187 passing). It was the Colts' second highest scoring game of the season and their largest margin of victory in a season that would see Indy go 13-3 but bow out in the Playoffs, losing their first Playoff game at home to San Diego in the Division round. The 41 points were the most allowed by Saints in 2007 and their largest margin of defeat in a 7-9 season.

Both teams played all 4 teams from the AFC East with the Colts facing the Jets twice. They also each faced Arizona and St Louis, giving Indianapolis 7 games against common foes and New Orleans 6 such games.

The Colts went 5-2 straight up (4-3 ATS) although both losses (to the Jets and Buffalo) came in their final two games of the regular season when they rested regulars.

Both teams hosted New England in mid season, two weeks apart and on prime time TV. Both the Colts and Saints closed as 2 ½ point home favorites against the Patriots.

Indianapolis struggled against the Pats but put on a furious fourth quarter rally to edge New England 35-34. They were outgained 477-407. New Orleans had a much easier time two weeks later, winning 38-17 and outgaining the Pats 480-366. Score that comparison for the Saints.

Both teams also faced the Dolphins in Miami. In week 2 the Colts, favored by 3 points, won 27-23. Miami played an almost perfect game that Monday night, controlling the clock for just over 45 minutes. But the Colts made the most of their less than 15 minutes of possession. A Manning to Dallas Clark on the first play from scrimmage gave the Colts an early 7-0 lead. A 48 yard TD toss to Pierre Garcon with just over 3 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter capped the scoring. In between the teams traded touchdowns and field goals in a game neither team led by more than 7 points.

New Orleans' 46-34 win at Miami unfolded quite differently. QB Brees had arguably his poorest game of the season, at least at the outset. Miami jumped out to a 24-3 lead by the middle of the second quarter. The Saints made a gutsy call just before the half to eschew a FG and go for the touchdown which was successful and closed the gap to 24-10 Miami. Miami took a 34-24 lead into the fourth quarter only to see the Saints score 22 unanswered points including a 54 yard interception return by Tracy Porter at the 2 minute mark to seal the win and overcome Brees' 3 interceptions. It was that win that established the Saints as the team to beat in the NFC.

And nobody did defeat the Saints until Dallas dealt New Orleans the first of three straight losses to end the regular season back in mid December.

The Colts can be given an edge in quality of competition faced and defeated this season. Including Playoff games, their 16 wins came against teams that were a collective 129-121 against the rest of the NFL (51.6 %). New Orleans' 15 wins came against teams that were just 113-121 against the rest of the league (48.3 %).

Overall Indianapolis' 18 opponents had a combined straight up record of 146-155 (48.5 %) but their ATS record was just 142-152-7 (48.3 %). New Orleans' 18 opponents were just 136-163 straight up (45.5 %) but their collective ATS mark was a much better 152-143-4 (51.5 %).

Both Indianapolis' Jim Caldwell and New Orleans; Sean Payton are making their debut as head coaches in a Super Bowl although Caldwell was an assistant to Tony Dungy when the Colts defeated Chicago in Super Bowl XLI. But Payton also has Super Bowl experience as offensive coordinator on Jim Fassel's staff when the Giants lost to Baltimore in Super Bowl XXXV.

In 4 seasons with the Saints Payton has earned high marks as a head coach, especially with his handling of the offense. This past season was Caldwell's first as head coach of the Colts and the transition from Dungy to Caldwell went seamlessly as Indianapolis won 12 or more games for a record seventh straight season.

As mentioned earlier Indianapolis has an edge in experience, having played in -- and won -- the Super Bowl just 3 years ago. They've been through the routine and should be better equipped to handle all the preparation and distractions that are part of the time leading up to the game itself. How much of an edge is subject to debate as is its value in terms of points. New Orleans does have a few players with Super Bowl experience, most notably safety Darren Sharper. A reasonable handicapping approach would be to consider Indianapolis' overall experience edge to be worth perhaps a FG at most.

Much has been made of the poor record of first time teams in the Super Bowl when facing a team with prior Super Bowl experience. Much of that poor record occurred in the first couple of decades of the Super Bowl when mini-dynasties such as Green Bay, Miami, Pittsburgh and San Francisco made repeated appearances and often in back to back seasons against teams making their first appearance early in Super Bowl history.

Much has changed over the years and even inexperienced teams are better prepared to deal with the unusual atmosphere of Super Bowl week especially over the past decade or so in which there has been much greater player movement from team to team than had been the case in the first 25 or so seasons of the Super Bowl.

Both teams bring excellent credentials to Super Bowl XLIV. Each is led by an outstanding quarterback. New Orleans' Drew Brees set an NFL record by completing over 70 % of his passes in 2009. This followed a 2008 season in which he nearly set the all time record for passing yards. The Colts' Peyton Manning is considered by many to be the most cerebral QB of all time in addition to being one of the most talented. He won his third MVP Award this past season, one season after MVP honors went to Brees. Manning is a true coach on the field with as much authority as and QB in recent times to adjust the play call based on what he sees as he sets up behind center.

Statistically New Orleans rates a slight overall edge on offense. The Saints led the league in points scored and total offense. Indianapolis ranked seventh and ninth respectively. The Saints had a decidedly better rushing attack, averaging 132 yards per game (# 6) and 4.5 yards per rush. By contrast Indy averaged just 81 rushing yards per game (last # 32) and just 3.5 yards per rush. While both teams'' potent passing attacks rate almost even, New Orleans' significant edge in the running games gives them better balance and an ability to control the clock and protect a lead late in the game if they are ahead on the scoreboard.

But that''s just one side of the football.

The Colts have the better defensive stats, ranking # 18 in yards allowed and a solid # 9 in points allowed. The Saints ranked a below average # 25 and # 20 in those categories. The Colts' significant defensive edge is also evident in many of the secondary statistics including yards per play allowed (5.2, # 5, compared to New Orleans allowing 5.7 yards per rush, # 21).

But stats are just one of the areas to be evaluated in forming conclusions as to how the game might play out.

New Orleans was just 8-8 ATS during the regular season but they were the largest favorite in the NFL, laying an average of 7.4 points per game. Because they won so many one sided games they actually outperformed the line by an average of 3.2 points per game. Indianapolis was a solid 10-6 ATS in the regular season, laying an average of 4.4 points per game and outperforming the line by an average of 2.4 points per game.

Yet despite the Colts' fine ATS record they would have failed to cover a spread of minus 5 ½ in 7 of their wins. Add in their 2 straight up losses to close the regular season and the Colts would have been 7-9 ATS laying 5 ½ points in all of their games. The Saints would have been 14-2 taking 5 ½ points.

The Colts failed to cover the spread in 4 of their wins. New Orleans failed to cover in 6 of their wins including the NFC Championship game against Minnesota.

The Saints would have gone OVER 56 ½ in 8 of their 18 games, staying UNDER 56 ½½ in 10 games. The results for Indianapolis are even more startling as the Colts would have gone OVER 56 ½ in just 3 of their 18 games, staying UNDER 15 times. Only once in their last 7 games were the Colts involved in a game that produced more than 47 total points. Only twice all season were the Colts involved in games that produced more than 51 total points.

For the season roughly 1 game in 6 produced more than 56 total points and roughly 1 game in 4 produced over 51 total points.

Using "The Gold Sheet" as an objective barometer, their Power Ratings at the start of the season would have made Indianapolis a 4 point favorite over New Orleans at a neutral site. Their Ratings prior to the Conference Championship games would have made this game Pick 'em. For much of the past season sports books had the AFC pretty much a 2 ½ point favorite over the NFC in the Super Bowl without knowing the specific matchups but anticipating that the AFC would send Indianapolis, New England, San Diego or Pittsburgh to the Super Bowl to face either Minnesota or New Orleans.

Now that the specific matchup is known that hypothetical line has been "adjusted' to over a FG and is perhaps headed to a touchdown (with or without the extra point). Does that qualify as an overreaction to what occurred in the Conference Championship games? It appears to be the case.

Much has been made of New Orleans' struggle to get past Minnesota in winning the NFC Championship at home. Outgained 475-257 (while running just 55 plays to Minnesota's 82) the Saints capitalized on turnovers and field position (and the fortunate winning of the overtime coin toss). Twice they rallied from behind in the first half to tie the game and twice they led by a touchdown in the second half only to see Minnesota draw even. It wasn't a pretty win and certainly not a convincing win but they made the key plays at critical times.

At the same time Indianapolis did not exactly dominate the Jets. After all, they could manage only a pair of field goals during the first 28 plus minutes of the game and allowed the Jets to score 17 points in the second quarter. Taking nothing away from the Jets the Saints had to get by the far more talented and experienced team to make it to the Super Bowl. The Colts' win, while solid, was not as convincing as a 30-17 score might otherwise indicate.

And let''s keep in mind that although Peyton Manning is arguably one of the best quarterbacks ever -- and has been in the elite class of quarterbacks for the past decade -- this is only his second Super Bowl. The Colts have had their fair share of disappointments in seasons past.

In fact, the Colts' franchise has remarkably won 12 or more games in each of the past 7 seasons yet has only made it to the Super Bowl twice. This is not meant as an indictment of multiple Colts failures but rather a testament to just how hard it is to reach the ultimate game despite having an extraordinarily successful season. Once you make the Playoffs anything can happen. Just ask the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals of last season who made it to within a half minute of winning the Super Bowl. Or just ask the 18-0 New England Patriots of two seasons ago who came within a half minute of 19-0.

The Super Bowl is handicapped unlike any other game played during the regular season or the Playoffs. There is finality to the season following this game. The winners are champions and the losers must settle for playing the 'what if' game during the offseason. Often these games become one sided as the trailing team ultimately accepts the inevitable while the leading team continues to play with purpose. Mistakes -- penalties and especially turnovers -- become magnified.

Keep in mind as you do your own analysis of the game to look at each team's body of work over the entire season. Recent form is also important as we saw just 2 seasons ago when the Giants rode late season momentum to victory over previously unbeaten New England after the Pats had effectively peaked in mid season. In the end the goal is to achieve an analytical balance between how the season unfolded and current form.

Keys to success often lie in several areas. The ability to run the ball on offense and to defend against the run on defense. The ability to avoid turning the ball over on offense is also key. During the regular season New Orleans lost 28 turnovers, Indianapolis 24. Defensively the Saints had 13 more takeaways, 39 vs. 26. In 2 Playoff games New Orleans is +6 in turnovers, Indianapolis +3.

There''s really not much that separates these two teams in terms of talent or accomplishment. Either team is capable of winning. Indianapolis' main edges are experience and a statistically better defense. New Orleans' principal edge is their better balanced offense by virtue of a solid running game. Both teams have outstanding quarterbacks with big play, quick strike potential. New Orleans' defense is very aggressive. That could be strength if they are able to put pressure on the hard-to-sack Manning. If they don't apply that pressure, Manning could well beat them time and again.

While a shootout is expected such expectations often are not met. Key third down plays often result in field goal attempts rather than conversions or touchdowns. At a Total of 56 we are looking at 8 touchdowns between the two teams or perhaps 7 touchdowns and 3 field goals or maybe 6 touchdowns and 5 field goals. That's an awful lot of scoring. Turnovers can play a big part in either enhancing scoring opportunities or denying them depending upon where on the field they occur.

The Saints held 12 of 18 opponents to 24 points or less. The Colts did the same to 13 of their 18 foes.

The favored team has won 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls but has covered in just 3 of those wins. 3 of the last 6 Super Bowls have been decided by exactly 3 points and last season's was decided by just 4 points.

Both the Saints and the Colts have quarterbacks very capable of coming from behind and each has done so several times this season. The Colts rallied to overcome a fourth quarter deficit in 6 of their wins this season.

It's very tempting to call for the Saints to upset the Colts. They certainly have the capability to win every time they take the field. It's just as tempting to expect Peyton Manning to lead yet another fourth quarter comeback in the biggest game of the season as he did six times this season. Why not both?

It's even more tempting to suggest that there will be several lead changes in the second half of this contest just as there were two lead changes in the final 3 minutes of each of the last two Super Bowls.

It will be hard to top the drama and climactic endings of the past two Super Bowls but this matchup has very much the ingredients to do just that. In a game that handicaps as being very similar to last year's Super Bowl the forecast is for Indianapolis to score late and take a 24-20 lead but leaving too much time for Drew Brees to lead his Saints on a game winning touchdown drive with just seconds to spare as New Orleans upsets Indianapolis 27-24 making NEW ORLEANS a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER also a 3 Star Selection.

The NEW ORLEANS SAINTS go marching into the history books as winners of Super Bowl XLIV as the game stays UNDER the Total.

Win or lose, Bourbon Street figures to be very festive on Sunday evening well into the wee hours -- or later -- of Monday morning. And in the aftermath the Big Easy and the Who Dat nation will again feel the wrath of Hurricanes. Only this time they''ll be flowing in celebration from Pat O'Briens.

One of the features that adds enjoyment to the Super Bowl is the annual POP to which we are treated. That's the Plethora Of Propositions that enable bettors to have action on virtually every play of the game. In fact, several Sports Books even offer a proposition related to the coin toss so it's possible to have action even BEFORE the game kicks off! (It's often phrased as "which team will receive the opening kickoff").

We do, of course, have some generalized comments and will be posting the props about which we are most enthusiastic on our website later this week. To receive our recommended proposition plays be sure to visit our website and go to the SUBSCRIBERS' SELECTIONS & NEWSLETTERS link on our Home Page. When you get to the Subscribers' page the link to access the proposition recommendations will be prominently displayed. Very often several of the props offer a greater opportunity for success than either the Side or Total selection. Our website address is www.thelogicalapproach.com . Online readers may CLICK HERE for direct access to our Proposition Page for Super Bowl XLIV.

Although the Super Bowl may be the most heavily bet game of the year it is generally not the most bettable game of the year. So much is known about both teams and so much attention is paid to almost every angle that most of the wagering possibilities may involve the many propositions that will be posted at the sports books in town, rather than just on the team to cover or whether the game will go Over or Under the total. Many of the 'props' are innovative and entertaining and are designed to provide action throughout the game. It is literally possible to have action on every single play of the Super Bowl if you play enough of the props.

Much of the success of "prop" wagering dates back to Chicago's appearance in Super Bowl XX. In January 1986 the Bears were heavily favored over New England. But one special wager was offered -- will Chicago defensive lineman William "Refrigerator" Perry score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Then Bears coach Mike Ditka had used Perry several times in the backfield, teaming with the great Walter Payton. Because of the lopsided pointspread in the game, novel ways to attract action were considered. As memory serves, the "Yes" was originally priced in the neighborhood of roughly 15 to 1 that Perry would score a TD. The novelty of such a unique wagering proposition caused an overwhelming number of bettors to take a flyer on that prop. At kickoff the odds had fallen to the vicinity of 4 or 5 to 1 and, sure enough, Perry did score a touchdown in the Bears' 46-10 rout of the Patriots. While the books lost money on that specific prop, it wound up serving as a "loss leader" as props won a huge following. Over the past 20 + years one of most anticipated events of the time between the Conference Title games and the Super Bowl is the release of the many props that can be wagered upon. From what used to be a page or two the offerings at some books fill more than a dozen double sided long sheets. Not only are there props involving the two teams in the game, some creative bookmakers offer props that tie certain events in the Super Bowl to other sports being played over Super Bowl weekend, both within the US and internationally.

Let's share some thoughts on the multitude of propositions available at virtually every sports book in Nevada.

What began as a novelty over 20 years ago has become a phenomenon that is eagerly awaited every season. The growth has been geometric with several properties offering over one hundred different props. At the Las Vegas Hilton, for example, 21 full sized 8 ½ by 14 inch pages filled with nothing but props are available.

A fair amount of creativity goes into the development of these props and considerable research is done in order to offer propositions that on the surface appear even. The use of a 20 cents line, or often a 30 cents line, ensures that the Sports Books will enjoy a healthy profit when all the results are in and the accounting is completed.

For the most part the props have been looked upon as secondary ways to bet the game, more often for fun than for huge monetary gains. But there may be some solid opportunities for nice profits as well.

Sure, there are professionals who scour the city - and the Internet - for the best prices on the props and who have done painstaking research to uncover even the slightest of mathematical, or 'expected value' edges. And kudos to those who have the time, bankroll and resources to uncover those edges.

But for the majority of those who bet on the game the props merely serve to add enjoyment to the overall experience with the chance for earning a few extra bucks as the game unfolds.

In looking at the many propositions that will be available on the game it's important to note that there are two major types of prop plays. The first is a head to head matchup such as which QB will have more total yards or whether the total number of sacks will be over or under a specified number. The other type of proposition is one that has more than two possible outcomes such as the player who will score the first TD, the margin of victory by the winning team or the combination of the first half result with the total game result. These propositions offer more attractive odds since there are several possible outcomes while the head to head matchups are priced more along the lines of a fairly competitive baseball game in which the favored part of the proposition requires the bettor to lay around -160 and the underdog player gets +130 or +140.

Some of the props are fairly straightforward and involve just two options. An example would be whether or not there will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half. Your choices are either Yes or No. Usually the "Yes" will be favored for this specific prop. A similar type prop involving an individual player might be whether Saints' QB Brees will have more or less than 24 ½ pass completions in the game. Most of these two option props have low odds attached to them so that you might have to lay - 140 or - 150 on the 'favored' part of the prop while getting back + 120 or + 110 on the 'underdog' part of the prop. Many props are minus 110 either way such as the Brees completions prop. Some will have - 120/Even Money attached to the prop.

Props with larger payoffs involve multiple options. The most popular of these would include the player to score the first touchdown. Here you can find odds of from 5 or 6 to 1 to as high as 50 to 1 or more. If you believe a Colts player will score the first TD you might want to consider a play on TE Clark (8-1). For the Saints perhaps you might look at WR Colston (10-1). Ann oddball prop in connection with the first TD of the game is whether the player scoring the initial TD will be wearing an odd or even numbered jersey. Now THAT's creativity - and if you take the time to fully research it you might find an edge.

If you don't want to guess the specific player to score first you might consider a prop that simply asks you to pick the team scoring first and whether that score will be a rushing TD, passing TD, "other" TD or a FG.

There are literally several hundred propositions that can be wagered upon. Considering the many variations that number increases into the thousands. Every play will affect the outcome of multiple props. They are offered as ways to further enhance the experience of watching the game and provide opportunities for profits.

The best advice for playing the props is to shop, shop and shop some more. Each property will put its individual slant on the props and there will be opportunities for getting better value by comparing the props at the different properties.

The preference here is to look for head to head props as opposed to selecting one result from a list of 5, 10 or even more possible outcomes such as the player to score the first TD of the game or the combination of winning team and final margin. Although the payoff on these multiple outcome props far exceed the head to head props you have a much better chance of collecting on the props that offer just two possible outcomes. A secondary preference within the head to head props is to look to play props that pay even money or better since for the most part the nature of the Super Bowl makes many of the props no better than 50/50 random occurrences such as the team to punt first or to make the initial first down. At the same time a well thought out analysis of how the game might unfold can be profitable in quite a number of the props.

Another way to approach props is to pair them off. An example is to look at playing whether each QB's first pass will be either complete or incomplete. Usually books have this proposition priced with 'complete' as the favorite for both quarterbacks. Playing the 'incomplete' at a plus price for each means that you only need one of them to hit to show a profit. Considering that both quarterbacks are likely to face considerable pressure and perhaps have a case of nerves early in the game suggests that the likelihood of both passers completing their first passes is less than the possibility that one or both of them will throw incompletions initially. At the Hilton, for example, the line for Brees' first pass to be complete opened -240, the incomplete +200. For Manning the complete also opened -240, the incomplete +200. For these so called "tandem" props you need just one of the two to hit in order to show an overall profit on the pair.

Propositions concerning the last team to score in the first half, the team making the most field goals and similarly worded props should be approached by looking to play on the underdog half of the prop due to the uncertain status of the conditions that might develop during the game such as which team will receive the opening kickoff. Recall that the line has Indianapolis a 5 ½ point favorite. The "value" will more often be on the Saints in many of the propositions because the public will have an easier time making a case for the Colts as the 'favored' team in props involving things happening first. The reality is that a great number of such propositions are independent of who you think will win the game or perform better.

Finally there are the inter-sport propositions that match up an event from the Super Bowl against an event from the NBA, NHL, European soccer, PGA golf, etc. Again, some astute analysis can provide an edge in making wagers on these 'fun' propositions. Surely from amongst the literally hundreds of propositions being offered even the most cynical person can find something to his or her liking.

It is expected that Prop Recommendations will be available on our website (see above) beginning Wednesday February 3 and that there will be additions/updates posted on a daily basis with the Recommendations to be finalized around Noon Pacific time on Sunday, February 7 so be sure to check back regularly.

Above all, remember that in the eyes of the most serious, professional bettors the Super Bowl is just another game and one that often offers little wagering value because the line is strong and heavily influenced by 'public' money.

Have fun. Enjoy the game. Good luck. And remember that the 2010 NFL season is just 7 months away.

Special Note -

This is our final issue for the 2009 season and we'd like to thank all of our subscribers and other readers for their support and for the many kind words cast our way. During the offseason we will continue to work and research in an effort to make next season even better and your comments/suggestions are always welcome.

We do plan on publishing an "online only" Newsletter edition sometime in late February that will briefly review the 2009 season and preview the 2010 NFL season. It will also contain our final College & Pro Football Spreadsheet updated to include all college Bowls and NFL Playoffs and the Super Bowl. It will be available online only and shall be posted on our website and emailed to current subscribers.

Thanks, again, to all and best wishes for an enjoyable, healthy and fulfilling offseason.

NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).