LOGICAL APPROACH

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NFL Overs & Unders - A Total-ly Different Perspective - Part 1

For nearly three decades wagering on the total points scored in NFL games has increased greatly in popularity. Totals allow the handicapper to concentrate on the flow or pace of a game rather than which team will have greater success. Obviously there is much overlap between the quality of the teams involved and the total points that will be scored but by looking at a game from an Over/Under perspective several weaknesses in the Totals line can be exploited. Of paramount importance is a knowledge of 'key' numbers for Totals much as 'key' numbers are important from a regular pointspread perspective. Here's a look at the key numbers for total points scored in the 6,478 NFL regular season games played between 1981 and 2008.

Total Points	Pct.		Total Points	Pct.		Points Range	Pct.
37	4.80 %		33	3.12 %		0 - 21	6.48 %
41	3.87 %		27	3.04 %		22 - 33	24.15 %
51	3.55 %		45	2.99 %		34 - 41	22.50 %
30	3.37 %		47	2.96 %		42 - 51	24.63 %
44	3.21 %		34	2.93 %		52 +	22.24 %

The first part of the Chart shows the ten most common total points results over the past 28 seasons and the percentage of the time that each has occurred. For example, 37 total points is the most common result and it has occurred 4.80% of the time, or about one game in 20. The 10 most common results have accounted for 33.85% of all results. In other words, slightly more than one game in three will fall on one of these ten 'key' numbers. The right hand part of the Chart looks at how frequently the total points in a game falls within one of five ranges. About 1 game a week will feature total points of 21 or less while about 3 games each week will see 52 or more points scored. Next week we will present some interesting data which will show why wagering on Overs and Unders presents some very good opportunities based partly on the above data and also on how the linesmaker is restricted in setting lines for Totals.

The college season starts winding down as 14 teams end their regular season by playing for a twelfth straight week. This week we begin seeing many games involving traditional season ending rivals. Often the weaker team - the underdog - makes for a solid play in these games as they have a chance to salvage an otherwise disappointing season with a win over their most bitter foe. Bowl bids may be on the line for one or both teams and that adds to the intensity of the rivalry. That's part of the pageantry and great appeal of college football.

As the college season winds down the chase for a berth in the National Championship game becomes more in focus and the annual debates continue to rage. Currently it appears that the BCS Championship game will feature a matchup of Texas versus the winner of the SEC Championship game between Alabama and Florida barring any unexpected events. All three teams still have games remaining, including traditional season ending rivalries, but each will be solid favorites the rest of the way save for the Alabama/Florida matchup in which Florida is likely to be a 3 to 4 point favorite if both are still unbeaten.

The debates continue over the need and/or desire for a Playoff at the highest level of college football - the only segment of any NCAA sport that does not determine a champion on the field. The debate could intensify this season if, as is quite possible, as many as 5 FBS schools enter the Bowl season undefeated. In addition to Alabama, Florida and Texas 3 other schools enter the final weeks of the season with perfect records - Boise State, Cincinnati and TCU. Even without such an eventuality materializing, the time for a playoff has long since arrived. More on this topic in two weeks as we repeat our annual rant about this subject.

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: California + 7 over STANFORD - Stanford enters the "Big Game" with plenty of momentum following wins over Oregon and USC by a combined score 106-63, topping 50 points against each. Earlier Cal lost to both by a combined 72-6, dashing their hopes of a Rose Bowl season and once again disappointing those who seeming annually predict big things for the Cal program. But that's what makes rivalry games so special. The underdog, especially a talented one, generally has the greater motivation to either salvage their season or ruin their biggest foe's. Cal is without their best player, RB Best, but even in his absence defeated Rose Bowl contender Arizona last week. There are not too many negatives to cite about Stanford other than a letdown would not be a surprise following those two huge wins even against their most bitter of rivals. Cal has won 6 of the last 7 in the series (all as favorites) so Stanford will be motivated as well. Cal has a slightly better defense, especially against the run, the strength of Stanford's offense. Although an upset would not surprise , the call is for a close game, Stanford wins but by just 34-31.

Other Featured College Selections

Kentucky + 9 over GEORGIA - Both teams are 6-4 which represents a disappointing season for Georgia but a solid campaign for Kentucky. These teams have similar resumes including wins over Vanderbilt and Auburn and one sided losses to Florida. They are very similar statistically. On offense Kentucky has a better ground game while Georgia has been stronger through the air. Defensively Georgia is stronger against the run while Kentucky is better defending the pass. Georgia has dominated this series over the years but KY has been much more competitive of late, covering 2 of the last 3 with a straight up win. This is Georgia's weakest team since they were 8-4 in 2001. Kentucky is having a season similar to the last 3 seasons that have seen the Wildcats go to 3 straight Bowls. Both teams have traditional season ending games on deck and with these teams so evenly matched a close game should result. Georgia wins but by just 27-24.

BYU - 10 over Air Force - The Mountain West has unfolded pretty much as expected with TCU the clearly dominant team, followed by BYU and Utah and then a gap to Air Force and then a huge dropoff to the rest of the conference. BYU is 8-2 with one sided losses to TCU and Florida State, both of which have come on their home field. Air Force is enjoying a solid season and they gave TCU their toughest test, losing 20-17 at home despite being outgained by over 100 yards. The Force has played outstanding defense all season and value the football, losing just 7 turnovers all season. But BYU has dominated Air Force recently, winning 5 straight with each win by at least 14 points with an average score of 41-22. Even the past 2 seasons, when AF won 8 and 9 games, BYU defeated Air Force handily. There's too much of a talent edge for BYU. Air Force plays smartly and will hang tough for a while, but BYU ultimately creates distance. BYU wins 37-20.

HOUSTON - 24 over Memphis - Houston suffered only their second loss of the season last week and has a chance for a 10 win season with a win here and next week over Rice. The Cougars have fared well when stepping up in class this season with wins at Oklahoma State and Mississippi State and at home over Texas Tech. Memphis is 2-8 and fired coach West last week. His team responded with a flat effort in their final home game against UAB and it's hard to see the Tigers having any motivation as they play their final 2 games. Houston has a high powered, quick strike offense but their defense is very weak. But Memphis' offense has struggled all season to find consistency. The defense is allowing nearly 16 yards per completion, a sign of either poor positioning or poor tackling - or both! Memphis is 1-8 ATS - worst in the nation, clearly showing underachievement against expectations. Houston has the firepower to put points on the board and Memphis is likely to show little resistance. Once they fall behind they likely also lose interest. Houston wins 54-17.

Best of the Rest (Opinion)

BOWLING GREEN - 11 over Akron (Fri)	OHIO U Pick 'em over Northern Illinois
Wisconsin - 7 over NORTHWESTERN	IOWA - 10 over Minnesota
Rutgers - 8 over SYRACUSE	INDIANA + 3 over Purdue
VIRGINIA TECH - 21 over North Carolina State	MISSOURI - 15 over Iowa State
Vanderbilt + 16 1/1 over TENNESSEE	TEMPLE - 13 over Kent State
NOTRE DAME - 6 over Connecticut	Penn State - 3 over MICHIGAN STATE
MISSISSIPPI - 4 over Lsu	Kansas State + 16 over NEBRASKA
TEXAS TECH + 6 ½ over Oklahoma	Louisiana Tech + 10 over FRESNO STATE
NEW MEXICO + 4 ½ over Colorado State	ARIZONA + 6 over Oregon
Smu + 4 over MARSHALL	SOUTHERN MISS - 8 over Tulsa
FLORIDA - 45 over Florida International	TROY - 16 ½ over Florida Atlantic
UL Monroe - 2 over UL LAFAYETTE	MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 11 over Arkansas State

The Rest (Leans)

Central Michigan - 14 over BALL STATE (Wed)	MIAMI OHIO + 4 ½ over Buffalo (Wed)
OKLAHOMA STATE - 18 ½ over Colorado (Thur)	TOLEDO - 18 ½ over Eastern Michigan
UTAH STATE + 23 over Boise State (Fri)	MICHIGAN + 12 over Ohio State
Virginia + 21 over CLEMSON	Louisville + 12 over SOUTH FLORIDA
Maryland + 19 over FLORIDA STATE	BOSTON COLLEGE - 3 over North Carolina
WYOMING + 32 over Tcu	Mississippi State + 10 ½ over ARKANSAS
Oregon State - 30 over WASHINGTON STATE	Arizona State + 4 ½ over UCLA
EAST CAROLINA - 12 over Uab	Baylor + 7 ½ over TEXAS A&M
Utep - 6 ½ over RICE	UTAH - 20 over San Diego State
TEXAS - 27 over Kansas	MIAMI FLA - 19 ½ over Duke
CENTRAL FLORIDA - 19 over Tulane	Nevada - 30 over NEW MEXICO STATE
SAN JOSE STATE + 3 over Hawaii	NORTH TEXAS - 2 over Army

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Washington + 11 over Dallas - Champagne corks are popping in the nation's capital after the Redskins topped 17 points for the first time this season in their win over Denver as they took advantage of the negative scheduling spot for the Broncos. Dallas' four game win streak ended in Green Bay despite a strong effort from the defense. Recent matchups of Cowboys and Indians have been very competitive with 7 of the last 10 meetings decided by 5 points or less. Washington's defense has not allowed over 306 total yards in their last 7 game and their familiarity with their Division rivals should keep this one close. Only once this season has Washington lost by more than 10 points. And Dallas also plays a few days later on Thanksgiving Day. They are the better team and should get the win. But Washington's offense should move the ball on Dallas and the Redskins' defense keeps this close. Dallas wins but by just 20-16.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

New Orleans - 11 over TAMPA BAY - Normally this would be a flat spot for the still undefeated Saints who have a Monday night showdown against New England up next. But having sputtered on both sides of the ball the past few games the Saints should approach this game as a means of getting things back on track for what should be their toughest game of the season against the Pats. Tampa provides the perfect opponent for that as the Buccs limited offense should enable the Saints' defense to regain its swagger. The Saints' 'D' has been vulnerable the past few weeks but they should be protecting a big lead for much of the game. And they will be going against a rookie QB. Tampa's defense has been porous all season, showing few signs of improvement. After 4 relatively close calls against Miami, Atlanta, Carolina and St Louis the Saints are well positioned to get back on track on both sides of the ball. New Orleans wins 45-21.

ST LOUIS + 9 over Arizona - Arizona finally had an impressive home win, just their second home triumph of the season. They are 4-0 on the road but are now expected to win, favored for the first time away from home this season. And by more than a TD. St Louis has played well over the past month and have shown slow but steady improvement. They're as healthy as they've been all season and nearly upset the Saints here last week. They could well get that upset win here. They have a solid rushing game with RB Jackson showing flashes of his prior All Pro form. Much of the Rams' improved play has been their being able to avoid turning the ball over as often as they did in the season's opening month. Arizona has started to address their main offensive weakness by running the ball better of late. But their defense has weakened, allowing an average of 393 ypg over their last 4 games. Their statistical edges are not great enough to warrant this high a level of favoritism although they are clearly the better team. The points will matter. Arizona wins but by just 24-21.

Tennessee + 4 ½ over HOUSTON (Monday Night) - QB Vince Young clearly makes a difference and Titans have won 3 straight following their Bye and an 0-6 start. Tennessee's now won 7 straight games started by Young dating back to last season. The resurgence of the running game has helped as the Titans have averaged over 200 yards on the ground over their last 4 games. Houston won at Tennessee back in Week 2 34-31. But the Titans rushed for 240 yards in that loss and outgained the Texans in total yards. The Titans' defense is also getting healthy. Houston is rested following their Bye but the Titans are a dangerous underdog now that they've gained momentum. If they establish the running game it will allow Young to make the big plays. Houston's rush defense gives the appearance of performing well, holding their last 6 foes to under 100 yards. But those games were mostly against weak rushing teams. Tennessee pulls the upset, winning 31-24.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)

CAROLINA - 3 over Miami (Thursday)	Buffalo + 9 over JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis + 1 over BALTIMORE	San Francisco + 6 ½ over GREEN BAY
MINNESOTA - 11 over Seattle	NEW ENGLAND - 10 ½ over N Y Jets

The Rest (Leans)

DETROIT - 3 ½ over Cleveland	Pittsburgh - 10 over KANSAS CITY
N Y GIANTS - 6 ½ over Atlanta	OAKLAND + 9 ½ over Cincinnati
San Diego - 3 over DENVER	CHICAGO + 3 over Philadelphia

Best of the NFL Totals

Cleveland/Detroit UNDER 39	Pittsburgh/Kansas City OVER 40
Atlanta/N Y Giants OVER 46	Washington/Dallas UNDER 41 ½
New Orleans/Tampa Bay OVER 51	N Y Jets/New England UNDER 45
Cincinnati/Oakland UNDER 36	Tennessee/Houston OVER 48

Money Line Recommendations

College:	INDIANA	NEW MEXICO	ARIZONA	Smu
Pro:	CAROLINA	San Diego	CHICAGO	Tennessee

NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).