LOGICAL APPROACH

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2008 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

Issue # 6

Games through October 6, 2008



Football's "X" Factor - An Attempt To Explain the Unexplainable

Last week we introduced our Statistical Spreadsheet. One stat we touched on just briefly and promised an expanded definition this week was the 'X' Factor. We first began to publish this statistic a few seasons ago. Here's the explanation we used when we introduced this very interesting, unique and revealing statistic.

Statistics are a necessity in determining and evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of teams in all sports and in making comparisons. Stats are the fundamental building blocks of handicapping and all other factors used in handicapping spring from some raw statistical data. In football the most common statistics used in evaluating teams are points and yards. Teams need to gain yards on offense to score points and on defense the objective is to prevent your opponent from scoring points by gaining yards.

It would seem reasonable that a team that gains the most yards would also score the most points, all things being equal. Likewise, the team gaining the fewest yards would be expected to score the fewest points. But, of course, all things are not equal. And there is rarely, if ever, a direct correlation between yards gained and points scored, or yards allowed and points allowed, for more than just a handful of teams. Some teams, such as Minnesota's 1998 offense, will rank first in both categories, or sixth, or last. Usually there are differences in a team's yardage ranking and their scoring ranking. These differences are generally accounted for by a team's ability or inability to score within the opponents' 20 yard line (the 'red zone'), the performance of a team's "special" teams, and the performance of a team's defense to score on fumble and interception returns or to at least establish good field position.

A measure we've relied upon more and more in recent seasons to explain the reasons why a team's yardage rankings differ from that same team's scoring rankings is what we refer to as the "X" factor. It is very easy to calculate and by comparing two teams' "X" factors we are able to draw some conclusions and understand why certain teams win despite having below average stats or why losing teams seem to move the ball well but fail to cash in. To determine a team's "X" factor, simply subtract a team's scoring rank from its yardage rank. A neutral team, having an "X" factor of 0, will have the same yardage and points rank. A team that ranks 15th in yards gained but ranks 9th in points scored (using averages) has an offensive "X" factor of +6, indicating they are scoring more points than their yardage ranking relative to the other 31 teams suggests. That team is either benefitting from cashing in when inside the red zone, is getting good field position and has less yardage to gain in order to score, or is getting points from defense and special teams' play. A team that ranks 17th in yardage but ranks 25th in average points scored has an offensive "X" factor of -8, indicative of a team that moves the ball but doesn't score as much as they should. Similarly, a team ranking 12th in yards allowed but 5th in points allowed has a defensive "X" factor of +7. This is a team that makes the big plays on defense despite allowing yardage, or faces teams that fail to get good field position or whose defenses and special teams don't often score. A team ranking 8th in yards allowed but 13th in points allowed has a defensive "X" factor of -5. This is a team that surrenders more points than expected, meaning that they often provide their opponents with good field position or allow big scoring plays, including allowing special team and defensive touchdowns.

Part of successful handicapping comes from looking beyond the obvious numbers, beyond the wins and losses and pure points scored and allowed. Factoring Factor 'X' into your handicapping regimen will point you in the direction of many undervalued teams and away from many that are overvalued.



COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Connecticut + 7 over NORTH CAROLINA - Over the past few seasons UConn has become more than just a basketball school as the football program has been elevated and has enjoyed a nice measure of success with two Bowls in the past 4 seasons. North Carolina is much improved in coach Butch Davis' second season on the sidelines and the Tar Heels' progress can be seen in their last minute upset win at Miami last week. Uconn has fared well as an underdog and also has done well against ACC teams, including a 45-10 blowout home win over Virginia just a few weeks ago. In fact, against ACC teams the Huskies have continued to play better, covering their last 3 such games dating back to last season. They have a solid running game allowing them to control clock and are above average defending the pass. 'Carolina is good enough to win, but it will be close. North Carolina wins but by just 23-20.

Other Featured College Selections

Texas Tech - 7 over KANSAS STATE - Texas Tech is one of 5 Big 12 teams in the Top Ten, a sign of just how strong and deep this conference is. Tech has had a solid program for many years under coach Mike Leach and his wide open passing offense. The Red Raiders are averaging 573 yards per game on offense yet are also playing solid defense, allowing fewer yards than Kansas State. Tech has also played very well against the run, allowing just 100 ypg. K State is still in a rebuilding mode and has not fared well in recent meetings against Tech even when they were a top flight program under former coach Snyder. Over the past 2+ seasons they have failed to cover twice in three games as home underdogs and will be in trouble here again once they fall behind. Texas Tech continues their fine season, winning 37-20.

Auburn - 4 over VANDERBILT - Vandy enters this game unbeaten at 4-0 with sights set on a winning record and their first Bowl game since 1982. Yet despite this lofty record the Commodores are being outgained by 81 yards per game. Auburn's lone blemish was their home loss to LSU a couple of weeks back but the Tigers have been strong all season with one of the nation's top defenses, allowing just 246 ypg. Auburn has had the upper hand against Vandy in recent seasons, winning the last 3 meetings by a combined 111-20 and not allowing Vandy more than a TD in any of the games. There is a huge class difference between the programs and the talent and while Vandy coach Johnson is to be commended for elevating the level of play and the caliber of athlete, Auburn should find Vandy much more to their liking following much stiffer tests against LSU and Tennessee the past two weeks. Auburn wins 31-13.

Kentucky + 16 ½ over ALABAMA - Alabama was dominant last week against a quality team for the second time this season as the Tide defeated Georgia just as easily as they opened the season with a rout of then highly ranked Clemson. Coach Saban clearly has prepared his team well for games against elite foes and their #2 national ranking has been well earned. This is a likely letdown spot for the Tide who suffered a similar letdown following their Clemson win when they were lethargic in a 20-6 home win over Tulane. Kentucky is off to a very quiet 4-0 start itself and actually has posted better defensive stats (5.5 ppg, 227 ypg vs. 13.4 ppg and 259 ypg) albeit against weaker competition. Yet both teams hosted and routed Western Kentucky so there is some basis of comparison. Alabama won 41-7 with a total yardage edge of 557-158. Kentucky won 41-3 with a total yardage edge of 398-157. With both teams excelling thus far on defense and 'Bama in a letdown spot, there could be limited scoring opportunities. Hence, the huge points are very attractive. While an upset is not likely, a competitive game certainly is. Alabama wins but by just 23-17.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)
SOUTH FLORIDA - 13 ½ over Pittsburgh [Wed] MARSHALL + 3 ½ over Cincinnati [Fri]
WEST VIRGINIA - 14 over Rutgers PURDUE + 13 over Penn State
Iowa + 9 ½ over MICHIGAN STATE South Carolina + 2 ½ over MISSISSIPPI
Kansas - 13 over IOWA STATE Duke + 14 over GEORGIA TECH
Unlv + 2 over COLORADO STATE WESTERN MICHIGAN - 4 ½ over Ohio U
Stanford + 7 ½ over NOTRE DAME Arizona State + 9 over CALIFORNIA
Florida - 24 over ARKANSAS CENTRAL FLORIDA - 14 over Smu
TCU - 24 over San Diego State TENNESSEE - 16 over Northern Illinois
TOLEDO + 7 ½ over Ball State KENT STATE + 3 ½ over Akron
SOUTHERN MISS - 8 over Utep WISCONSIN + 2 ½ over Ohio State
TULSA - 14 over Rice Oregon + 16 ½ over USC


The Rest (Leans)
MID TENNESSEE - 2 ½ over Fla Atlantic [Tue] BOISE STATE - 22 over Louisiana Tech [Wed]
UAB + 4 ½ over Memphis [Thur] Oregon State + 12 over UTAH [Thur]
UTAH STATE + 29 over Byu [Fri] Boston College - 8 over NORTH CAROLINA ST
MINNESOTA - 7 ½ over Indiana VIRGINIA + 14 over Maryland
Army + 19 over TULANE Temple + 7 over MIAMI OHIO
MICHIGAN - 2 ½ over Illinois Missouri - 11 over NEBRASKA
Texas - 13 ½ over COLORADO Florida State + 2 ½ over MIAMI FLA
BOWLING GREEN - 21 over Eastern Michigan AIR FORCE - 6 over Navy
Nevada - 24 over IDAHO UCLA - 17 over Washington State
ARIZONA - 20 over Washington Oklahoma - 27 over BAYLOR
OKLAHOMA STATE - 24 ½ over Texas A&M NEW MEXICO - 11 over Wyoming
Hawaii + 23 over FRESNO STATE VIRGINIA TECH - 28 over Western Kentucky
UL MONROE + 2 over UL Lafayette NORTH TEXAS + 7 over Florida International



NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: New England - 3 over SAN FRANCISCO - New England's Bye came at the right time following their blowout upset home loss to Miami. With Matt Cassel taking over for injured Tom Brady at QB in the opening game, the Pats needed the time off to better assimilate Cassel into the offense while also working on some defensive vulnerabilities exploited by the Dolphins. San Francisco is stepping up in class and although Pats are not the same team without Brady at QB there are plenty of veterans with character and experience to make up for his absence. The Niners appear improved but the Pats are playing off of an embarrassing loss and a need to win with 4-0 Buffalo sitting atop the AFC East.. The week of rest will be evident in what should be very crisp play from both the offensive and defensive units of the Pats. The defense, especially, is eager to atone for their poor effort against Miami. The 49ers are scoring a TD more per game than the Patriots but the Niners have faced more permissive defenses. Look for New England to show improvement on both sides of the football. New England wins 28-13.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

Indianapolis - 3 over HOUSTON - The Colts struggled to a 1-2 start before their Bye, largely due to the absence from training camp of QB Peyton Manning due to injury. He has been slow to regain timing with his receivers but the week off should have helped to get the offense in synch. The defense has also struggled and will again be without Bob Sanders. Houston has been an early disappointment and normally would be in a good spot to back against their Division rivals. But the Colts are the clearly more talented team and are playing with a sense of urgency they've not experienced this early in the season in years. When Manning is performing well - as he should here - the offense is well balanced and the defense plays better with more aggression, knowing that the offense will be able to overcome defensive mistakes. That aggression has been missing thus far but should be in full force here. The Texans are allowing 11 points per game more than the Colts despite each team allowing nearly the same total yards. Indianapolis wins 31-17.

N Y GIANTS - 7 over Seattle - Both teams are off Bye weeks. The Giants have been impressive in starting 3-0 as QB Eli Manning continues to elevate his game and is almost in the class of elite quarterbacks. Seattle has been hit by injuries at WR which has limited the effectiveness of QB Matt Hasselbeck and the offense. New York's defense continues to apply pressure and against a team that has not had a full training camp to work on timing between QB and receivers that could be a huge edge. Both teams had rather easy wins over St Louis with the 'Hawks winning 37-13 at home a week after the Giants won 41-13 in St Louis. Both offenses put up impressive stats and both defenses held the Rams in check. The Giants had the slightly better stats even though their win was on the road. They will be without suspended WR Burress but there is depth at that position as is not the case with Seattle. Both teams have fared well defending the run with the Giants having fared better in pass defense. The Giants have played the better overall defense and are allowing more than 121 fewer points per game. It won't be a rout but it will be a convincing win. N Y Giants win 34-17.

ARIZONA - 1 over Buffalo - After a season opening blowout of Seattle, Buffalo has had to rally from behind to win each of their next three wins in starting 4-0. Now they travel cross country to face a Cardinals team that itself just played two games on the East coast, losing at both Washington and the Jets. Buffalo is much improved this season with outstanding special teams, a solid defense and an offense that is getting better behind QB Trent Edwards and RB Marshawn Lynch. The situation favors the Cards who prior to their eastern travels won their first two games. Despite last week's 56-35 loss to the Jets, Arizona's defense has not played as poorly as perceived, allowing just 306 ypg. WR Boldin is very iffy for this game but the Cards have several weapons at the disposal of QB Warner. The early line movement has been, not surprisingly, towards Buffalo but the Bills recent struggles have been masked by their come from behind wins. This becomes an important game for Arizona with a home game against Dallas up next while Buffalo has a Bye. Arizona wins 24-20.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)
BALTIMORE + 3 over Tennessee San Diego - 6 ½ over MIAMI
DETROIT + 3 ½ over Chicago DALLAS - 13 * over Cincinnati


The Rest (Leans)
CAROLINA - 9 ½ over Kansas City PHILADELPHIA - 5 ½ over Washington
GREEN BAY - 10 over Atlanta * DENVER - 3 over Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh + 4 over JACKSONVILLE NEW ORLEANS - 3 over Minnesota [Monday]


* Projected Lines - Current Lines not available at press time due to injury concerns

Best of the NFL Totals
Tennessee/Baltimore UNDER 35 Kansas City/Carolina UNDER 38
Chicago/Detroit OVER 44 Seattle/N Y Giants OVER 43 ½
Tampa Bay/Denver OVER 48 Minnesota/New Orleans OVER 47

Money Line Recommendations
College: MARSHALL South Carolina TOLEDO KENT STATE
Pro: Indianapolis DETROIT New England DENVER


NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).