LOGICAL APPROACH

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COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

Issue # 8

Games through October 22, 2007



Mid Season College Football Report - Underachievers and Overachievers

It's hard to believe but we've already passed the halfway point of the 2007 college football season. All 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams (BCS, formerly Division I-A) have played at least 6 games with more than half, 68 to be precise, having played 7 games with no week off since opening the season. As we do each year to mark the midpoint of the season we look at those teams that have shown the greatest progress from the start of the season and the teams that have shown the greatest decline. These assessments are not based on subjective analysis but rather on the change in a team's Raw Power Rating between the preseason and the conclusion of last week's play. Here's our list of such teams for 2007:

Teams Showing Greatest Improvement Teams Showing Greatest Decline
1 - Kansas 11 - Buffalo 1 - Nebraska 11 - UL Monroe
2 - Oregon 12 - Louisiana Tech 2 - Louisville 12 - Iowa State
3 - Kansas State 13 - Idaho 2 - TCU 13 -Notre Dame
4 - New Mexico 14 -Arizona State 4 - Minnesota 14 - Syracuse
5 - Kentucky 15 - Michigan State 5 - Northern Illinois 15 - San Jose State
6 - Utah State 16 -Air Force 6 - Pittsburgh 16 - Washington St
7 - UNLV 17 -Indiana 7 - Wisconsin 17 - Hawaii
8 - Arkansas State 18 - Miami Ohio 8 - SMU 18 - BYU
9 - Connecticut 19 - UTEP 9 - New Mexico State 19 - Toledo
10 - Illinois 20 - West Virginia 10 - USC 20 - Southern Miss


We think you'll find both lists pretty interesting with some surprising teams making each. Collectively the 20 teams showing the greatest improvement are 81-50 Straight Up (S/U), or 62%, and a solid 79-39-2 Against the Spread (ATS), or 67%. The top 5 teams in the group are 25-6 S/U (81%) and a strong 22-5-0 ATS (81%). Of the 20 only Idaho has a losing pointspread record (2-4) with only Arkansas State and Utah State at .500 ATS (each is 3-3). The other 17 teams each have winning pointspread records including Kansas at a perfect 5-0 (Missouri, ranking # 22, is also 5-0 ATS).

The 20 teams showing the greatest decline are a collective 55-79 S/U (41%) and 36-82-4 ATS (31%) while the top five in the group (those showing the greatest decline) are just 14-21 S/U (40%) and are just 8-23-1 ATS (26%). Of these 20 teams none has a winning ATS record and only 2 of the 20 are at .500 ATS (BYU and San Jose State, each 3-3). The other 18 teams are below the .500 mark ATS including six teams that have just one win Against the Spread (Nebraska, Wisconsin, SMU, New Mexico State, Syracuse and Toledo). Five teams with losing straight up records appear in the Most Improved list including 0-6 Utah State and 1-6 Idaho, each of whom has been more competitive than in recent seasons Buffalo, Louisiana Tech and UNLV are the other 3 teams). 7 winning teams are in the Most Declined list including 7-0 Hawaii and 6-1 USC, both underachievers despite all those wins (Nebraska, Louisville, TCU, BYU and Wisconsin are the others).

The pointspread records of each group indicate whether the teams, as a group, have or have not played up to the level expected of them by the linesmaker. And that's really what concerns us as handicappers.

It will be interesting to follow the pointspread records of both groups over the balance of the season. As the linesmaker attempts to even things out it would not be surprising if the "Most Improved" group has an overall losing ATS record over the balance of the season while the "Most Declined" group shows a profit.

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: NEBRASKA - 2 over Texas A&M - Wow! Can it get any worse for this storied program. Nebraska's 45-14 home loss to Oklahoma State last week - the worst in a half century - sealed the fate of AD Peterson who wax axed on Monday and coach Calahan's contract may well be bought out at the end of the season. Rumor has it that ex-coach Osborne will be brought back in some capacity to help resurrect the program. A&M is also in trouble, especially after revelations of coach Francione selling "inside information" to contributors. On the field, Nebraska is the more talented team and they are playing with that "us against the world" mentality. A&M has played only twice on the road this season and both games were one sided losses at Miami Fla and Texas Tech - programs at least on a par with Nebraska. The price to back the Huskers is cheap following a pair of one sided losses. Nebraska wins 34-21.

Other Featured College Selections

Wake Forest - 3 over NAVY - Both programs are well coached and play hard for 60 minutes, even when overmatched. Wake has the better talent and has been a much improved program since coach Grobe took over and last season's ACC Title and trip to a BCS Bowl confirmed the progress the program has made. Over the past few seasons Wake has excelled as an Underdog but stumbled as a Favorite. That has continued this season as Wake is 0-3 ATS when favored, 2-1 as a dog. At some point, however, things catch up to where the Demon Deacons are undervalued when made a small favorite. They have won all 3 meetings with Navy over the past decade. Navy has the nation's top rushing game and the worst pass attack and while Wake has been vulnerable to the rush they have the better overall defense by almost 100 yards and 9 points per game. And they've played a far tougher schedule. Wake Forest prevails, winning 31-20.

Florida - 6 ½ over KENTUCKY - Kentucky's triple OT win over LSU last week was just the latest in a season of stunning upsets. Now they face the daunting task of taking on Florida after the Gators had a week off to stew following a pair of losses (LSU and Auburn). It's clear that Kentucky is a much improved team this year just as it is clear that Florida has not dropped back as many expected following last season's National Title. There still is a gap between the programs - Florida has won 10 straight over the 'Cats, with only one win by less than a TD. The Gators have a better balanced offense than Kentucky and a clear edge on defense. And with 2 losses although their shot at repeating their Title run is remote, the way this season is unfolding it may not be impossible for a team with 2 losses to play for the title. Florida would have to win out for that to happen, including likely exacting revenge from LSU in the SEC Title game. The road starts here. Florida wins 34-17.

UNLV - 2 ½ over Colorado State - UNLV has made progress under coach Sanford and although they have only won twice this season the Rebels have been much more competitive - on both sides of the ball - than in the past few seasons. They continue to play hard and have cut down on mistakes. The losing continues for Colorado State with the streak now at 13 as they face the last team they defeated (28-7 last season). The teams are fairly even statistically with CSU having the better offense and UNLV the better defense, especially against the run. UNLV also protects the football well, losing just 9 turnovers in 7 games. This is a winnable game for a program looking to make progress. UNLV has the better mindset and arguably better talent. Other than Utah State (which UNLV defeated on the road to open the season) Colorado State is the weakest team the Rebels will have played this season. UNLV wins 27-17.

Best of the Rest (Opinions)
RUTGERS + 2 ½ over South Florida [1] CONNECTICUT + 3 ½ over Louisville [2]
TEMPLE + 6 ½ over Miami Ohio Mississippi State + 24 over WEST VIRGINIA
Arkansas - 5 over MISSISSIPPI SOUTH CAROLINA - 13 over Vanderbilt
Wyoming + 2 ½ over AIR FORCE WESTERN MICHIGAN + 1 ½ over Ball State
COLORADO + 4 over Kansas Nevada - 7 over UTAH STATE
MISSOURI - 3 ½ over Texas Tech Miami Fla + 6 over FLORIDA STATE
Oregon - 11 over WASHINGTON Tulsa + 3 over CENTRAL FLORIDA
EAST CAROLINA - 5 over North Carolina State ARIZONA - 10 ½ over Stanford
FRESNO STATE - 12 ½ over San Jose State PURDUE - 6 ½ over Iowa
TOLEDO - 1 over Ohio U Texas - 24 ½ over BAYLOR
ILLINOIS + 3 over Michigan SAN DIEGO STATE + 8 over New Mexico
Arkansas State + 2 ½ over MIDDLE TENNESSEE Florida Atlantic over LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE


The Rest (Leans)
TCU - 3 over Utah [1] Eastern Michigan + 10 over Northwestern [2][3]
SYRACUSE - 4 over Buffalo Penn State - 7 ½ over INDIANA
CLEMSON - 17 over Central Michigan Northern Illinois + 23 ½ over WISCONSIN
Army + 25 ½ over GEORGIA TECH RICE - 2 ½ over Memphis
SMU - 6 over Tulane Tennessee + 1 over ALABAMA
IOWA STATE + 29 ½ over Oklahoma California - 4 * over UCLA
NOTRE DAME + 18 over Usc OHIO STATE - 17 over Michigan State
Virginia + 5 over MARYLAND KENT STATE - 5 over Bowling Green
Houston - 13 over ALA-BIRMINGHAM LOUISIANA TECH + 16 ½ over Boise State
OKLAHOMA STATE - 3 over Kansas State Cincinnati - 10 over PITTSBURGH
Idaho + 9 ½ over NEW MEXICO STATE Auburn + 11 over LSU
TROY STATE - 18 over North Texas LOUISIANA MONROE - 14 over Florida International
MARSHALL + 4 over Southern Miss [4]

[1] Thurs Oct 18 [2] Fri Oct 19 [3] at Detroit, MI [4] Sun Oct 21

* Projected Line - Opening/Current Line Not Available at Press Time

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: DALLAS - 9 ½ over Minnesota - Despite losing by 21 Dallas played New England even for nearly 3 quarters and has nothing to be ashamed of in defeat. The Vikings got a huge game from rookie RB Peterson in edging past Chicago, nearly blowing a double digit lead. Dallas will be focused with a Bye next week and then a pair of Divisional road games. The Vikes are a one dimensional running team and Dallas will force Minny to pass. The defense has not yielded more than 81 yards rushing since week one. The offense is as explosive as any in the league with a dual threat running game. Minny has defended the run extremely well (66 ypg, # 2) but this will be by far the best balanced offense that defense will have seen thus far. Dallas also plays excellent run defense (80 ypg, # 6). Dallas wins handily 37-20.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

DETROIT - 2 over Tampa Bay - Detroit is off a Bye and head coach Marinelli gets to go up against his former employer. The extra week of preparation should greatly benefit the Lions who have won both home games this season. Tampa Bay has played better than expected to date but still has major concerns on offense, especially at RB (they just acquired Bennett from KC). This is a classic matchup of offense vs defense and while defense usually prevails Detroit's familiarity with Tampa's personnel and the continued struggles of the Tampa offense suggest the Lions should outscore the Buccs. The Lions have played well at home and despite their below average defense they do lead the league in takeaways (2.8 per game). Detroit wins 27-17.

Kansas City + 3 over OAKLAND - The Chiefs continue to improve week by week with RB Johnson finally scoring his first TD of the season in last week''s home win over Cincinnati. Oakland was held to season lows in points and rushing yards in last week's loss at San Diego, the team KC had defeated on the road a week earlier. The Chiefs have won 8 straight in the series and face a Raider defense that is down quite a bit from last season. 3 of their 5 foes have run for more than 140 yards and the KC running game, slow to start the season following Johnson's holdout, is on the verge of breaking out. Kansas City wins 20-17.

SEATTLE - 9 over St Louis - Key injuries to the Rams at the offensive skill positions of QB, RB and WR continue to plague the Rams and limit their offensive effectiveness. Even earlier this season at full health the offense struggled as a result of offensive line issues. The situation favors Seattle off of back to back losses and a Bye next week. They are the healthier team and have the better defense. Were Seattle off a win over New Orleans the situation would strongly favor the Rams, who even if Bulger, Jackson and/or Holt return will not have them at 100 percent. But the back to back losses change everything and assure a focused effort from the host, especially after struggling to win both games last season, each by 2 points.. Seattle wins 27-13.

Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
WASHINGTON - 7 ½ over Arizona N Y Jets + 6 over CINCINNATI
PHILADELPHIA - 5 over Chicago Indianapolis - 3 over JACKSONVILLE (Monday)


The Rest (Opinions)
NEW ORLEANS - 9 over Atlanta Baltimore - 3 over BUFFALO
MIAMI + 16 over New England N Y GIANTS - 9 over San Francisco
Tennessee - 2 * over HOUSTON DENVER + 3 ½ over Pittsburgh


Byes: Carolina Cleveland Green Bay San Diego


Best of the NFL Totals
Arizona/Washington UNDER 36 ½ Baltimore/Buffalo UNDER 35
Minnesota/Dallas OVER 46 New England/Miami UNDER 51
N Y Jets/Cincinnati OVER 47 Pittsburgh/Denver UNDER 39

Money Line Recommendations
College: RUTGERS TEMPLE SAN DIEGO ST Arkansas State
Pro: Baltimore DETROIT Kansas City DENVER


NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).