LOGICAL APPROACH

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2002 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

Issue # 3

Games through September 16, 2002



College football got underway in full force last weekend and judging from what we've seen in the first two weeks there will again be many surprises that unfold during the month of September and there will also be many of the same powers competing for the right to play in the Fiesta Bowl for the National Title as the season winds down in late November and early December.

The NFL regular season begins this Thursday and as we annually do at the start of each season we take a look at how we think the standings might look and how the season may unfold, including our thoughts on the Super Bowl matchup next January.

AFC EAST W - L AFC North W - L AFC South W - L AFC West W - L
Miami 11 - 5 Pittsburgh 11 - 5 Tennessee 13 -3 Kansas City 12 - 4
N Y Jets * 9 - 7 Cincinnati 8 - 8 Indianapolis * 11 - 5 Denver 9 - 7
New England 6 -10 Cleveland 8 - 8 Houston 3 -13 Oakland 7 - 9
Buffalo 6 -10 Baltimore 7 - 9 Jacksonville 2 -14 San Diego 5 -11
NFC East W - L NFC North W - L NFC South W - L NFC West W - L
Philadelphia 12 - 4 Green Bay 11 -5 Tampa Bay 11 - 5 San Francisco 13 - 3
Washington 10 - 6 Minnesota * 11 -5 Atlanta 7 -9 St Louis * 11 - 5
Dallas 7 - 9 Chicago 9 - 7 New Orleans 6 -10 Arizona 7 - 9
N Y Giants 4 - 12 Detroit 3 -13 Carolina 3 -13 Seattle 3 - 13

* indicates teams projected to qualify for the Playoffs as Wild Cards

Before getting into specific here's a little history lesson. Since the NFL expanded the Playoff format in 1990 to include the six division winners and six wild card qualifiers only once have as many as eight teams repeated having made the Playoffs from one season to the next. In most seasons there have been only seven repeat Playoff teams meaning that five teams that did not make Playoffs in one season did so in the next. In the preseason it is always easiest to make a case for last season's best teams to once again enjoy success. But history suggests that close to half of these teams will not repeat that success. In fact, only six of the teams that made the Playoffs in 2001 also made the Playoffs last season.

Divisional realignment this season means that history cannot be as accurate a guide for 2002 as it has been in recent seasons. There are now eight four team Divisions with four Division winners and two Wild Card teams making the Playoffs from each Conference. The rise and fall of most franchises is cyclical but there does exist some imbalances among the eight Divisions. It is quite possible for a team that wins 10 games this season to miss the Playoffs while we could have a Division winner go just 8-8.

Realignment has also worked to diminish the importance of Divisional games. In the past each team played at least half of its schedule, 8 games, against Divisional foes who met twice each season. Now each team will play only six such games with ten of their games being non-Divisional contests. Although teams within a Division will still play many of the same non-Division opponents the loss of two games with foes against whom you are competing for a Division title has to lessen the importance of Divisional games overall and could lead to some unexpected, and perhaps unsatisfying, results.

Here's our brief synopsis of how we view each Division.

In the AFC East Miami rates the nod over the New York Jets on the strength of a more fully developed defense. Both teams should make the Playoffs. Defending Super Bowl champion New England got on a late season roll in 2001 but their talent is not of championship caliber. The trade of QB Bledsoe leaves them very thin if last season's surprise Super Bowl MVP, QB Brady, falters or is injured. Opposing defenses have also had the offseason to dissect Brady's strengths and weaknesses. Buffalo will be improved with the addition of QB Bledsoe but they're still in rebuilding process and a year or two away from Playoff contention.

The AFC North has four of the members of the old AFC Central and Pittsburgh is by far the class of the Division and should win the title by several games with a dominating defense and an offense that is better than many observers believe. Cincinnati and Cleveland will battle for second and should finish around .500 but neither will make the Playoffs. Cincinnati is improved on defense while Cleveland should be better on offense than in their first three seasons. Baltimore should show decline this season with a roster that hardly resembles the one that won the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Lack of experience at QB combined with new and inexperienced defensive talent surrounding all pro LB Lewis suggests the Ravens will struggle this season, but may still approach a break even record.

The newly formed AFC South has the remaining two members of the old AFC Central, Tennessee and Jacksonville, plus Indianapolis from the AFC East and the NFL's newest franchise, Houston. Tennessee and Indianapolis are clearly the front runners in this Division and both should make the Playoffs with a huge gap existing between the Titans and Colts and the other two teams. Age, injuries and salary cap issues have caused a rapid downturn in the fortunes of Jacksonville and the Jaguars could actually finish behind Houston in the standings as both teams will be hard pressed to win a quarter of their games.

The AFC West remains intact with the exception of Seattle which moves to the NFC West. The remaining four teams have long and storied rivalries dating back over 30 years to the old AFL. Kansas City is poised to make a major move this season with coach Vermeil overseeing an improving defense and one of the better offenses in the NFL. Age is beginning to take its toll on both Denver and Oakland with Oakland likely to suffer the most. The Raiders play down the stretch last season may have been the start of the decline. Denver is well coached and still has some playmakers but they and the Raiders are likely to miss the Playoffs. San Diego will be an improved team over last season, in which they lost their final nine games. Even though their record may not be much different than last season.

The NFC East loses only Arizona and Philadelphia figures to be the team to beat following their appearance in the NFL Title game last season in which they gave the Rams a strong game. Washington had one of the league's best defenses last season and new coach Spurrier brings his wide open offense to the NFL with a philosophy that eventually he will beat even the best defenses. The Redskins may be a team that wins ten games this season and misses the Playoffs, depending upon how contending teams in the NFC North fare. Dallas will have a solid defense but there are questions on offense which keep us from calling them to be a Wild Card contender. Still, the 'Boys should flirt with a break even record. The Giants have many questions along the offensive line and a defensive that lost several key performers from last season. It should be a long season in the Meadowlands for their fans.

The NFC North retains four of the teams from the NFC Central with Tampa Bay departing. Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago should be in a contentious battle all season with each of the three teams having both solid strengths and glaring weaknesses. The Packers appear to be the most balanced of the three while Minnesota has a stronger edge on offense than Chicago has an edge on defense. The call is for both the Packers and the Vikings to make the Playoffs. Detroit is in for another long season with a weak defense and many questions at receiver. The Lions would do well to turn the QB job over to rookie Harrington as early as possible so he can get valuable on the job training in yet another rebuilding season.

The new NFC South moves three teams from the NFC West as Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans join Tampa Bay. Tampa is clearly the team to beat with new coach Gruden promising to open up the offense as the Bucs look to benefit from their solid defense. New Orleans still has some playmakers but losses to the defense suggest the Saints will be hard pressed to finish with a .500 record. Things are really bleak in Carolina as the Panthers have absolutely no offense to compliment an already weak defense. Carolina has named aged veteran Rodney Peete as starting QB to begin the season as an example of how mismanaged this franchise has become since dismissing coach Capers a few years ago.

St Louis and San Francisco appear to be the class of the NFC West which adds Arizona and Seattle. The Rams have been the best team over the past three seasons but have won just one title so there is some pressure on coach Martz to produce. The 49ers' developed nicely last season and seem poised to overtake the Rams in the Division as more opposing defensive coordinators are finding ways to slow down the high powered St Louis offense. Arizona will be an average team and might be able to win half their games but should not be a contender. Seattle could be one of the biggest disappointments this season as Mike Holmgren is finding out that it's tough to excel at either job when you are both coach and GM.

In the Playoffs we see Pittsburgh and Tennessee as the teams to beat in the AFC. Of the two Wild Cards we think the Jets have the better chance of success than the Colts to pull an opening round upset but we see neither making it to the AFC title game. Kansas City may be a season away from contending for the title although Vermeil took the Rams all the way when they first made the Playoffs after a long absence. Miami has historically worn down over the last quarter of the season since their excellent defense has been more finesse than power and the offense is just ordinary. Ultimately the thought is that Pittsburgh is the best balance and most complete team in the AFC and if they can overcome the special teams problems that plagued them in last season's title game the Steelers will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The NFC may be much more balanced than most observers think. St Louis is the solid preseason favorite to win it all but as we suggested earlier we think the 49ers will win the NFC West and the Rams will make the Playoffs as a Wild Card, along with Minnesota. Green Bay may be the most vulnerable of the four Division champs and they could easily be upset by either of the Wild Cards. Philadelphia is a team that should show defensive improvement during the season and their defense is strong at the start. In McNabb they have one of the league's most exciting players and the experience gained in last season's NFL title game loss should be a plus this season, especially if they have to face the Rams again or the 49ers. The problems we foresee for Tampa Bay are that as the offense improves under coach Gruden the defense begins to show its age and wears down late in the season. Philadelphia should emerge from a balanced NFC field to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

In what we forecast to be an all Pennsylvania Super Bowl we look forward to being treated to a competitive game marked by solid defensive play. Both teams have offenses capable of sustaining drives and making the big play with a pair of mobile quarterback's in Philly's McNabb and Pittsburgh's Stewart. Both defenses are strong and if Pittsburgh has made it this far we think they will have solved those problems on special teams mentioned earlier. It's a long way to January 26, 2003 in San Diego but our crystal ball, fuzzy though it might be at times, does see Pittsburgh defeating Philadelphia 20-16 to win Super Bowl XXXVII.

Though odds will vary around Las Vegas, and shopping for the best odds is always advised, at the Stardust Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are each 6-1 to win the Super Bowl. Hey, we ain't perfect! Teams with more attractive odds that might be worthy of your consideration are Tennessee in the AFC at 17-1 and Chicago in the NFC, also at 17-1. Looking for an even longer shot or two? How about Kansas City or Minnesota, each currently held at 25-1.

So much for the future. Now a brief look at the past.

Another History Lesson - How do NFL Favorites and Underdogs perform in Week 1?

As a new season begins there are great uncertainties, more so in recent seasons, as to which teams will have great seasons and teams will be major disappointments. In week one we have last season's memories and the recent preseason to guide us. Most of what we see in preseason is meaningless, save for injuries to key personnel that coaches must devise ways to overcome. But the linesmaker is also working with past history and let's take a look at how the pointspread results in various roles in the season's opening week.

Home Favs Home Dogs Home Pick Road Favs Road Dogs Road Pick
1990-1993 21-13-2 11-8 0-0 8-11 13-21-2 0-0
1994-1997 19-16-2 13-8 0-1 8-13 16-19-2 1-0
1998 6-4 1-4 0-0 4-1 4-6 0-0
1999 2-7 4-1 1-0 1-4 7-2 0-1
2000 2-8 1-4 0-0 4-1 8-2 0-0
2001 5-3 2-2-3 0-0 2-2-3 3-5 0-0
Totals 55-51-4 32-27-3 1-1 27-32-3 51-55-4 1-1


As the above table suggests there are no clear or consistent patterns to how teams fare in the opening week of the season, with home teams in general barely breaking even (88-79-7, 52.7%) since 1990. If you were to rely on the results of 1999 and 2000 that Home Favorites would fare poorly in the opening week of 2001 based on their dismal 4-15 performance of those two seasons you would have been wrong. Each game must still be looked at and a decision made based on the merits of the two teams.

Now let's get back to the present and analyze this weekend's most attractive selections.

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Alabama + 13 over OKLAHOMA - From the late sixties to the late eighties this well could nave been a game to determine the National Champion. Both programs had been dominant for such a long period of time that when decline set in most observers were shocked. The OU program fell very low for much of the nineties only to be resuscitated when Bob Stoops was hired as coach and ultimately brought the Sooners a National Title two years ago. The Alabama faithful are hoping for similar success from Dennis Franchione. Alabama is on probation this season and won't go Bowling but they are still a dangerous team and should give Oklahoma a stiff test. Oklahoma has been just an ordinary team since winning their title and their deficiencies were evident in their 37-0 win at Tulsa to open the season. Alabama controlled their game vs. Middle Tennessee more than the 39-34 score suggests. Oklahoma struggled in their Bowl game last year against another SEC team, Arkansas and they've also struggled within the Big 12 conference against the better teams to put points on the board. Oklahoma's defense is among the nation's best and is probably the reason why the Sooners will win this and many other games this season. But this one will be a struggle. Oklahoma wins but by just 20-16.

Other Featured College Selections

PITTSBURGH + 3 ½ over Texas A&M - Coach Walt Harris has done a fine job in rebuilding the Pitt program and the Panthers have been to consecutive Bowls for the first time in almost two decades. Pitt is still a distance from being an elite team in the Big East but they are now on the level of a Syracuse and Boston College. Texas A&M has been a solid program for many years but has never been able to close the gap between themselves and the elite in the Big 12. A major reason has been the extremely conservative approach to offense of coach R C Slocum. The Aggies have been an outstanding defensive club during Slocum's 13 seasons as coach but they've never been able to find a complimentary offense. In their 31-7 opening game win over UL Lafayette the Aggies benefit of ten - that's right, ten - turnovers but could only manage a 3-0 lead at halftime and struggled to score their TDs in the second half. Under Harris Pitt has been aggressive on offense and this is a rare trip east for A&M. The crowd and environment will be hostile towards A&M and Pitt has the talent to spring the upset using a solid running game. Pittsburgh wins 24-20.

West Virginia + 11 over WISCONSIN - Wisconsin has a pair of wins against I-A teams already this season but the Badgers have not looked effective in defeating either Fresno State or UNLV. They've been fortunate in winning the turnover battle 9-2 but have not been able to move the ball consistently. The defense has also had moments that should cause the coaching staff concern. West Virginia opened their season with a tune up thrashing of a I-AA for but the Mountaineers are expected to improve under second season coach Rich Rodriguez. Expect West Virginia to have a well balanced offense this season - the kind of offense that can give a fragile Wisconsin defense trouble. WVU should have success running the ball which will open up the passing game. Defensively WVU is just average and Wisconsin should score their share of points as well in what should be an entertaining game. Winning on the road is always tough for a program that is rebuilding but with the generous spot we're merely expecting West Virginia to be competitive. Wisconsin gets the win but by only 34-27.

Colorado State + 7 over UCLA - This is UCLA's season opener while Colorado State has already shown some toughness going cross country to win at Virginia and then defeating their classier rival, Colorado, last weekend. CSU coach Sonny Lubick has always had his team well prepared to play on the road, even when stepping up in class. UCLA coach Bob Toledo is again under pressure to have his team show consistency both from season to season and within a season. The Bruins are able to attract solid talent but often have underachieved. They do have to replace outstanding RB Foster and that could put pressure on the passing game early. CSU shows signs of being the team to beat in the Mountain West. UCLA is picked to possibly contend in a very good Pac 10. Although playing in a weaker conference than UCLA the Rams have won two of every three games over the past ten seasons. That's quite impressive and also a solid indication of the job Lubick has done in building and maintaining the CSU program to a level where they can compete with the very best. This goes to the wire as CSU pulls a not-so-shocking upset. Colorado State wins 27-24.

Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
Hawaii + 10 ½ over BYU [2] MISSISSIPPI - 9 over Memphis
Purdue + 6 ½ over NOTRE DAME MICHIGAN STATE - 25 ½ over Rice
Louisiana Tech + 12 ½ over CLEMSON East Carolina + 4 ½ over WAKE FOREST
North Carolina + 6 over SYRACUSE UTAH - 13 ½ over Indiana
MIAMI OHIO + 5 ½ over Iowa NEBRASKA - 30 ½ over Utah State
Mid Tennessee + 23 over TENNESSEE Buffalo + 9 over RUTGERS
Troy State + 3 over ALA-BIRMINGHAM ARIZONA STATE - 4 over Central Florida




The Rest (Opinions)
TEMPLE + 11 ½ over Oregon State [1] NAVY + 18 ½ over North Carolina State
SOUTHERN MISS - 3 ½ over Illinois NORTHWESTERN + 5 ½ over Tcu
KENTUCKY - 19 over Utep New Mexico + 6 over AIR FORCE
OREGON - 16 * over Fresno State BOSTON COLLEGE - 7 over Stanford
WASHINGTON - 30 over San Jose State Miami Fla + 2 ½ over FLORIDA
DUKE + 17 over Louisville COLORADO - 24 over San Diego State
ARKANSAS - 8 over Boise State Texas Tech - 18 over SMU
VIRGINIA + 3 ½ over South Carolina HOUSTON - 3 over Tulane
UNLV - 14 over Kansas CONNECTICUT + 23 ½ over Georgia Tech
Kent State + 28 over OHIO STATE Western Michigan + 23 over MICHIGAN
Wyoming + 1 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN WASHINGTON STATE - 28 over Idaho
Akron + 22 ½ over MARYLAND Toledo - 23 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
CALIFORNIA - 13 ½ over New Mexico State MISSOURI - 15 ½ over Ball State
ARKANSAS STATE + 5 over Tulsa SOUTH FLORIDA - 6 over Northern Illinois
KANSAS STATE - 38 ½ over UL Monroe UL LAFAYETTE + 14 over Minnesota


NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: TENNESSEE - 1 over Philadelphia - Philadelphia made it to the NFC Championship game last season and seem stronger in several areas this season. Tennessee was one of the AFC's top teams prior to last season's injury filled campaign. Both teams are well coached but the host has a decided edge at running back with Eddie George. Both QBs, Philly's McNabb and the Titans' McNair, are amongst mobile and can make things happen. The Eagles do start the season with the better defense but are some concerns. Neither team has excellent receivers but the Titans do appear to have an edge, especially at TE. The key to Tennessee's season is health. The Titans won 13 games in each of the two seasons before last year's rash of injuries. The tone for last season was set with an opening Sunday night loss to Miami, something the coaching staff seeks to avoid this season. Both teams should make it to the Playoffs, and Philadelphia did win seven of eight on the road last season. But the Titans are well balanced and have taken steps to improve a defense that slipped badly in 2001. Tennessee gets the win 23-14.

Other Featured NFL Selections

Kansas City + 2 ½ over CLEVELAND - Kansas City has one of the top offenses in the league last season and the addition of WR Morton adds strength. TE Gonzalez, considered by many the best in the game, has ended his lengthy holdout. The key to the Chiefs success rests on a defense that was torched often last season but coach Vermeil has shown in the past he can rebuild a defense. Cleveland is a trendy pick to contend for the Playoffs this season but a season ending injury to LB Miller will be felt severely. QB Couch begins the season banged up and there are still questions about the running game. The Browns are thin at many positions, including those two key offensive spots. Both teams are expected to improve this season but KC has more weapons to strike quickly and overcome deficits. As mentioned in our preview we expect the Chiefs to win the AFC West. Cleveland is still a season away but should at least have their first non-losing season. If this game were later in the season we'd give Cleveland a better chance but early in the season the edges go to the Chiefs. Kansas City gets the win 24-13.

DENVER + 3 over St Louis - Denver is in the rare role of a home underdog -- a role they've faced only twice in the past six seasons. But considering that the Broncos have won just 25 of 48 games in the three seasons since QB Elway retired perhaps being an underdog to the all-powerful Rams is justified. The Rams have been the best team in the NFL over the past three seasons but have just one championship to show for it. Coach Martz is under some pressure to produce since that one title came under his predecessor. Denver coach Shanahan is one of the best in the NFL and he usually has his team well prepared to start the season and has to be accorded a solid edge on the sidelines. Denver has historically had one of the best home fields in the NFL. St Louis has also performed much worse on natural grass than on their preferred artificial turf surface as their speed is negated on the real thing. The Rams don't figure to win them all and this is an ideal spot for them to be upset. Denver is relatively healthy and have been preparing for this game and this foe since training camp opened. Denver pulls the upset, winning 27-23.



NEW ENGLAND + 2 ½ over Pittsburgh - The first Monday night game of the season features a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game. Pittsburgh seeks to avenge a loss in which they were double digit favorites. Poor special teams play did them in but take nothing away from the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. They epitomized a unified team. This is the opening regular season game in their new stadium and they continue to make a point of not being respected despite winning it all. The Super Bowl champs as home underdogs? That does show a lack of respect. Clearly Pittsburgh is the better team and they should cruise to the Playoffs while the Pats struggle to play .500. But this is a unique situation and a unique set of circumstances. Usually we look to play against the defending Super Bowl champ early in the season but past champs are usually solid favorites, especially opening at home. The Pats won't be able to rely on emotion all season and their questionable talent might point to a third place finish in the AFC East. But for this one game, on this one night, expect the Patriots to make a statement. New England wins 20-17.

Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
N Y Jets - 3 over BUFFALO WASHINGTON - 7 over Arizona
Baltimore - 2 over CAROLINA MIAMI - 8 over Detroit




The Rest (Opinions)
N Y GIANTS + 3 over San Francisco Minnesota + 4 ½ over CHICAGO
San Diego + 1 ½ over CINCINNATI GREEN BAY - 7 over Atlanta
Indianapolis - 3 ½ over JACKSONVILLE OAKLAND - 7 over Seattle
TAMPA BAY - 6 over New Orleans HOUSTON + 7 ½ over Dallas


Best of the NFL Totals (Overs/Unders)
N Y Jets & Buffalo OVER 40 Baltimore & Carolina UNDER 34
Minnesota & Chicago OVER 41 ½ San Diego & Cincinnati UNDER 38
Atlanta & Green Bay OVER 42 ½ New Orleans & Tampa Bay OVER 37 ½
Dallas & Houston UNDER 33 ½


[1] Thursday, September 5 [2] Friday, September 6 * Projected Line

The lines reflected above are generally lines available around midday on Tuesdays which allow for the opening numbers to have absorbed some action and movement. For games on which no lines have yet been posted we provide projected lines and you should follow the guidelines listed in Newsletter Issue # 1.



Money Line Recommendations
College PITTSBURGH East Carolina MIAMI OHIO Colorado State
Pro N Y Jets Kansas City DENVER NEW ENGLAND


NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS.

NOTE: All material is presented as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state or local law(s),