.
Open Open Open Curr Curr Curr
TEAM Wins OVER UNDR Wins OVER UNDR
----------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Arizona Cardinals 7 -110 -110 7 -110 -110
Atlanta Falcons 10 -120 Even 10 -120 Even
Baltimore Ravens 10 1/2 -110 -110 10 1/2 -110 -110
Buffalo Bills 5 1/2 -120 Even 5 1/2 -120 Even
Carolina Panthers 4 1/2 -125 +105 4 1/2 -115 -105
Chicago Bears 8 1/2 +130 -150 8 1/2 +110 -130
Cincinnati Bengals 5 1/2 -120 Even 5 1/2 -120 Even
Cleveland Browns 6 1/2 -150 +130 6 1/2 -130 +110
Dallas Cowboys 9 -110 -110 9 -110 -110
Denver Broncos 5 1/2 -110 -110 5 1/2 -110 -110
Detroit Lions 8 +130 -150 8 +130 -150
Green Bay Packers 11 1/2 +105 -125 11 1/2 +105 -125
Houston Texans 8 1/2 -110 -110 8 1/2 -110 -110
Indianapolis Colts 9 1/2 -140 +120 9 1/2 -140 +120
Jacksonville Jaguars 6 1/2 Even -120 6 1/2 Even -120
Kansas City Chiefs 8 +135 -155 8 +135 -155
Miami Dolphins 7 1/2 +110 -130 7 1/2 +110 -130
Minnesota Vikings 7 Even -120 7 Even -120
New England Patriots 11 1/2 +110 -130 11 1/2 Even -120
New Orleans Saints 10 -110 -110 10 -110 -110
N Y Giants 9 1/2 +150 -170 9 1/2 +150 -170
N Y Jets 10 +105 -125 10 +105 -125
Oakland Raiders 7 -110 -110 7 -110 -110
Philadelphia Eagles 10 1/2 -120 Even 10 1/2 -130 +110
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 1/2 -130 +110 10 1/2 -130 +110
St Louis Rams 7 1/2 +140 -160 7 1/2 +120 -140
San Diego Chargers 10 +115 -135 10 +115 -135
San Francisco 49ers 7 1/2 -110 -110 7 1/2 -110 -110
Seattle Seahawks 6 -105 -115 6 -105 -115
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8 +135 -155 8 +115 -135
Tennessee Titans 7 +120 -140 7 +120 -140
Washington Redskins 6 -120 Even 6 -120 Even
NOTE: Totals have not yet changed for any teams since they opened
but as they do they shall be noted here.
In approaching an analysis of playing
individual teams to go Over or Under their respective win totals, several global
perspectives need to be looked at first.
One key thing to keep in mind is
that the public is usually geared to thinking in the positive -- i.e. that things
will happen rather than that they won't. In other words, much as the public tends
to prefer Favorites over Underdogs in betting the pointspread, and tends to prefer
betting Over the Total Points as opposed to Under the Total Points in individual
games, the Team Over/Under wins are geared more to betting the Over rather than the
Under.
In seasons prior to 2007 there had been huge biases towards the OVER
that resulted in the values being found in playing the UNDERs. In recent years the
public -- especially the so-called "Wise Guys" part of the public -- has
become more enlightened about sports betting in general, and Over/Under Season Wins
in particular.
In 2010 the number of projected wins for all 32 teams summed
to 257 1/2. In 2009, they summed to 256.5. In 2008, that number summed to 252.5.
In prior seasons it was not unusual for the "projected" wins to total in
the mid to upper 260's. A look at the "vig" attached to the Overs and Unders
shows that there has been a shift in that rather than having the public play OVER
inflated Win Totals, the public must now pay an unusually high "vig" to
play OVER more realistic (and slightly lower) Win Totals. More about this shortly
as this has become a major change/development.
For 2011 the total wins sums
to 260 for the Opening numbers and also 260 for the current numbers (thus far all
teams remain at the Opening number of wins). This is largely due to the rash of free
agent signings immediately following the end of the lockout in late July that generally
resulted in "positive news spins" for teams signing new players (in many
cases disregarding personnel losses by the same teams).
Barring
any games that end in ties, there can only be 256 wins accumulated by the league
as a whole, 256 being the total number of regular season games to be played.
There
was a slight bias towards the UNDER in 2008 which means that on a global basis there
was slight value in betting the OVER. In 2009 and again in 2010 there were slight
biases the other way meaning that the global value was in betting the UNDER as the
Total Projected Wins totalled slightly more than the possible total wins of 256.
In
2011 the slight bias is towards the UNDER with the Total Wins summing to 260, 4 games
more than the league as a whole can win.
Going even further, if one were to
bet every team to go Over their total, because of the half wins for several of the
teams it would take 283 wins overall to cash every ticket, or a league record for
256 games of 283-229, a spread of 54 games. If you were to bet every team OVER the
total and those teams with whole numbers for their projected wins landed exactly
on those numbers you are still looking at a total number of games of 269 to WIN or
PUSH betting every team to go OVER their Total, a variance of 26 games (269-243)
from the 256 being playedl (this would result in 18 wins and 14 pushes).
Obviously
this is impossible but compare this scenario to betting Under for all teams in which
case the total number of wins needed to cash every ticket drops to 237, or an overall
record of 237-275, a spread of 38 games. To WIN or PUSH every team going UNDER it
Total would require a total of 251 wins, a variance of 10 games (251-261) from the
total number of 256 games to be played (this would result in the same 18 wins and
14 pushes, obviously, since only the 18 teams with "half games" would not
result in those Pushes).
Numerically there is a slight global bias or value
in 2011 in playing teams UNDER with the Total Wins projected at 260 (i.e. a league
record of 260-252). One way to get an overview of what the linesmaker expects is
to recast the above table in the form of projected standings, division by division.
By doing this exercise we get the following projections.
. AFC EAST NFC EAST -------------- ------------ -------------- ------------ New England 11.5 - 4.5 Philadelphia 10.5 - 5.5 N Y Jets 10.0 - 6.0 N Y Giants 9.5 - 6.5 Miami 7.5 - 8.5 Dallas 9.0 - 7.0 Buffalo 5.5 - 10.5 Washington 6.0 - 10.0 AFC NORTH NFC NORTH -------------- ------------ -------------- ------------ Baltimore 10.5 - 5.5 Green Bay 11.5 - 4.5 Pittsburgh 10.5 - 5.5 Chicago 8.5 - 7.5 Cleveland 6.5 - 9.5 Detroit 8.0 - 8.0 Cincinnati 5.5 - 10.5 Minnesota 7.0 - 9.0 AFC SOUTH NFC SOUTH -------------- ------------ -------------- ------------ Indianapolis 9.5 - 6.5 New Orleans 10.0 - 6.0 Houston 8.5 - 7.5 Atlanta 10.0 - 6.0 Tennessee 7.0 - 9.0 Tampa Bay 8.0 - 8.0 Jacksonville 6.5 - 9.5 Carolina 4.5 - 11.5 AFC WEST NFC WEST -------------- ------------ -------------- ------------ San Diego 10.0 - 6.0 San Francisco 7.5 - 8.5 Kansas City 8.0 - 8.0 St Louis 7.5 - 8.5 Oakland 7.0 - 9.0 Arizona 7.0 - 9.0 Denver 5.5 - 10.5 Seattle 6.0 - 10.0
By looking at the projected standings we can often spot teams that look out
of place. Such teams are not necessarily those that are predicted to win divisions
but rather may be teams projected to finish second or teams projected to finish last.
Note
that with divisional realignment in 2002, there are now eight divisions, each with
exactly four teams. This represents a dramatic change from the prior alignment which
featured five divisions of five teams each and one division of six teams.
Major Change in Bookmaker Approach
to NFL Over/Under Season Win Totals
===========================================================
In
seasons past there was a built in value towards playing teams UNDER their season
win totals as the sum of all team's projected wins would be significantly greater
than the total number of games that would be played during an NFL season. For example,
32 teams playing a 16 game schedule results in a total of 256 regular season games.
Often the total projected wins for the 32 teams would sum to the mid to upper 260's.
In fact, between 2002 (the first season of 32 teams with the addition of the Houston
Texans) through 2006 the sum of Projected Total Wins was been between 261 and 267.
In 2007 we saw the sum drop to 257 1/2, just a game and a half more than the number
of games to be played, but still with the slightest of edges towards playing the
UNDER. But in 2008 the sum was just 252 -- actually creating an edge to the OVER.
And in 2009 and 2010 the sum was virtually right on the 256 games that will be played
during the regular season. For 2011 the Total Wins sum to 260 largely due to anticipated
positive reactions to the flurry of free agent signings that occurred just prior
to training campes and the pre season schedule due to the prolonged NFL lockout during
which period personnel movement was prohibited.
In 2008 this shift towards
lower Projected Total Wins continued to a point where there was a numerical edge
in playing the OVER. Summing the 32 Projected Win Totals yields a result of just
252 total wins -- 4 fewer than the number of games to be played. But rather than
blindly conclued that there was now an edge in playing the OVER, closer inspection
showed that any such edge was all but wiped out by the "vig" attached to
playing the OVER.
A look at the first chart above shows that for 18 of the
32 teams bettors must lay a vig to play the OVER (using the Opening Lines). For only
11 teams is there a "plus" price on the OVER with 3 teams being priced
at "Even Money" for the OVER. Compare that to the UNDER and we see that
there are 24 teams that require the bettor to lay a vig to play the UNDER while the
other 8 teams are priced at either Even Money (4 teams) or a plus price (4 teams)
on the UNDER.
A
look at the past 13 seasons of NFL Season Total Overs/Unders (411 team seasons) there
have been 196 OVERs, 203 UNDERs and 12 PUSHes -- nearly a 50/50 split that has averaged
just 1/2 more UNDER than OVER per season for 13 seasons. As we all know, the closer
results come to being 50/50, the better the Sports Books fare.
In 2011 were
you to play EVERY team to go OVER, using $100 as a standard unit of play (risking
more than $100 to win $100 when laying vig or laying $100 to win $100 or more when
playing even money or 'plus' teams) -- using the Opening Win Totals and Vigs -- you
would be risking a total of $3,510 to win $3,415 (by wagering $2,110 to win $1,800
on the 18 teams with minus vig and $1,400 to win $1,615 on the 14 teams with plus
vig (11 teams) or at even money (3 teams)).
To play every team to stay UNDER
you would be risking a total of $3,795 to win $3,250 (by wagering $2,995 to win $
2,400 on the 24 teams with minus vig and $ 800 to win $ 850 on the 8 teams with plus
vig (4 teams) or even money vig (4 teams)).
So what we have seen in recent
seasons (with the exception of 2011 due to its unique circumstnaces) is a major shift
in setting season Total Wins. Recognizing that the public generally prefers to bet
the OVER, and recognizing that over the long run there will be nearly the same number
of teams going OVER their Total Wins as will be going UNDER, by attaching more of
a "minus" vig to playing the OVER results in a greater bottom line. What
the Books may give up in terms of perhaps one additional OVER winner they will more
than make up for in the added "net" vig they will collect on the OVER losers.
Interestingly for 2011 there is more vig on more teams attached to playing the
UNDER rather than the OVER, in contrast to the prior few seasons, again largely due
to the uniqueness of 2011 created by the lockout that eliminated all activities for
nearly all 5 months of the off-season.
Thus, from a "vig" standpoint
it had become even more attractive to seek out UNDERs as we are more likely to get
them at Even Money or better, even though we may be playing UNDER a number that could
be a half game lower than in the past (no way of knowing this, of course, as every
season sets up uniquely, but the half game is a reasonable estimate based on the
decline in the overall total of projected wins). At the same time, it becomes imperative
to proceed cautiously when considering an OVER play as we must now pay a higher price
than in the past to back the OVER, even though we are playing OVER a number that
is roughly a half game lower than it might have been in the past (for the same reason
as just mentioned for the UNDERs). As noted several times, the reverse is actually
the case for the unique 2011 season.
Therefore, we have seen a tradeoff
involving the number of projected wins and the vigorish attached.
The approach
we outline and discuss below regarding Playoff teams, combined with the detailed
history we will provide, is still a valid way of looking for teams to play OVER their
Totals while at the same time our similarly outlined approach to playing UNDERs offers
greater returns due to the increased "plus" vigs.
In
the past, our general approach was twofold -- to look for teams that figure to struggle
and thus teams to be played Under the total, taking advantage of the built in value
in the Under (now because of the attached vigorish as opposed to the previously discussed
win totals). But there is also a strategy geared towards finding teams that may be
played Over the total. This strategy involves looking for teams that one expects
will make the Playoffs and has a total wins listed of 9 games or less.
In
most seasons it will take at least 10 wins to qualify for a Wild Card. In fact, since
the NFL adopted its present Playoff format of 12 teams (6 division winners and 6
Wild Cards beginning in 1990, since modified in 2002 with Realignment to 8 Division
winners and 4 Wild Card teams but still producing 12 Playoff teams each season) there
have been 252 teams to make the Playoffs in those 21 seasons. Of those 252 teams,
203 of them had at least 10 wins and another 40 teams had exactly 9 wins. Only 9
teams made the Playoffs with 8-8 records or worse (including San Diego, winner of
the AFC West at 8-8 in 2008 and 7-9 Seattle, winner of NFC West in 2010). Looked
at another way, 80.6% of all Playoff teams won at least 10 games and 96.4% of all
Playoff teams won at least 9 games. Only 3.6% of all Playoff teams over the past
21 seasons made the Playoffs with fewer than 9 wins.
Thus in looking to play
teams Over their posted wins total the best strategy is to look for team with a good
chance of making the playoffs and whose win totals are 9 or less. Generally these
teams will have win totals between 7 and 9. Remember that 9 wins for a Playoff team
should at least get you a 'push' on the Over and you have roughly a 4 in 5 chance
of cashing your ticket should your team make the Playoffs since teams making the
Playoffs have won at least 10 games 80% of the time.
In looking at teams you
may expect to make the Playoffs use history as a guide. Since the NFL expanded to
include 12 teams in the Playoffs in 1990 only an average of 6.3 teams make it to
the Playoffs the following season after a Playoff appearance. That is, of the 12
Playoff teams from 2010 (Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Kansas
City, New England, New Orleans, the New York Jets, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Seattle)
only 6 or 7 of them can be expected to again make the Playoffs in 2011. Only once,
in 1995, did as many as 8 of 12 Playoff teams make the Playoffs for a second straight
season and only in 2003 did as few as 4 teams repeat (in 1999, 2005, 2006 and 2008
just 5 teams repeated from the previous season). Thus, 6 or 7 teams from 2010 can
be expected to make the Playoffs in 2011. (Note that 7 Playoff teams from 2009 again
made the Playoffs last season, in 2010).
Focus your OVER plays on those teams,
especially the 5 or 6 teams you think may make the Playoffs this season after having
missed out last season. Because of this recent high degree of parity -- in which
17 of the NFL's 32 teams have made the Playoffs over the past 2 seasons (of a total
of 24 available Playoff spots) -- the OVER becomes more of a value if you are able
to identify those teams that did not make the Playoffs a year ago but may have been
in the Playoffs 2 or 3 seasons ago and seem to be improved entering this season.
Of
the 15 teams that did not make the Playoffs in 2009 or 2010, 4 teams (Carolina, Miami,
the New York Giants and Tennessee) made them in 2008 and 3 teams (Jacksonville, Tampa
Bay and Washington) last made the Playoffs in 2007 meaning that 24 of the NFL's 32
teams, 75%, have made the Playoffs at least once in the past 4 seasons. Only 8 teams
(Buffalo - 1999, Cleveland - 2002, Denver - 2005, Detroit - 1999, Houston -- never,
Oakland -- 2002, St Louis -- 2004, San Francisco -- 2002) have not made the Playoffs
in any of the last 4 seasons.
It is easier to decide upon teams to play
Under the total for several reasons. Most developments during the season tend
to be negative, generally in the form of extended or season-ending injuries.
In looking for teams to play Under it is often a good strategy to look for teams
that don't have much depth at several positions, especially at QB and other skill
positions. A change in coaching staff or replacing of key players from the prior
season can often lead to a slow start out of the gate.
Also let's look at
the opposite of the statistics that define likely Playoff teams. Between 1990 and
2010 there have been 641 individual team seasons. 144 of those teams, or 22.5%, have
won 5 or fewer games in a season. 93 of those 144 teams (14.5% of the overall 641
total) have won just 4 or fewer games. Usually, the LOWEST Over/Under Season Win
Total will be 5 games. Using the historical percentage of 22.5% it is projected that
7 teams will win 5 or fewer games in 2011. Note that for 2011 only Carolina (4 1/2)
is projected to win fewer than 5 games and no teams are projected to win exactly
5 games. Three other teams -- Buffalo, Cincinnati and Denver -- are projected to
win 5 1/2 games with Seattle and Washington next at 6 games!
In each season
since 1990 there were at least 2 teams that won 4 or fewer games and at least 4 teams
that won 5 or less. Thus we can expect that 3 or 4 teams will win 4 or fewer games
in 2011 and that another 2 or 3 teams will win exactly 5 games. Last season saw 4
teams win 4 or fewer games and 2 more win exactly 5 games.
The most likely
prospects to win 5 or fewer games would generally be teams projected at 7 wins or
less.
In 2010 there were 13 teams that won 10 or more games and 6 teams that
won 5 or fewer. The New York Giants and Tampa Bay became only the seventh and eighth
teams to win at least 10 games and not make the Playoffs. In 2009 there 10 teams
that won at least 10 games (all made the Playoffs) and 8 that won 5 or less. In 2008
there were 10 teams that won at least 10 games and 8 teams that won 5 or less. The
New England Patriots became just the sixth teams since to win at least 10 games and
not make the Playoffs. In fact, the Patriots were 11-5 but lost the AFC East title
to Miami, also 11-5, on tie breakers. Unfortunately for the Pats Indianapolis earned
the first AFC Wild Card with a 12-4 record and theBaltimore, also 11-5 like the Patriots,
earned the second Wild Card on tie breakers. In 2007 there were 8 teams with 5 or
fewer wins and 10 teams with 10 or more wins. In 2007 10-6 Cleveland became the fifth
team since 1990 to win 10 games and not make the Playoffs. The previous 4 such teams
also won exactly 10 games -- San Francisco and Philadelphia in 1991, Miami in 2003,
Kansas City in 2005).
Obviously 2002's realignment meant that a different
type of analysis was needed to project how a team will do in total wins over the
course of a season and what number of wins will be needed to make the Playoffs. It
will be several seasons before even tentative conclusions may be drawn. Realignment
has radically altered scheduling dynamics and how teams will qualify for the Playoffs.
For example, in the past every team played at least half of their games against Division
rivals. Now a team plays only six of their 16 games against Division foes so by definition
Divisional games are not as important as they had been in the past.
Also,
the Playoff field is now comprised of 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Cards instead
of 6 and 6. Thus we might see teams in a relatively weak Division reach the Playoffs
by winning the Division with a record of just 8-8. San Diego did exactly that in
2008. And in 2010 Seattle became the first team with a losing record (7-9) to make
the Playoffs because they played in the incredibly weak NFL West which had a woeful
13-27 record in non-Divisional play. It will also be possible that a team could finish
second in a division with a 10-6 or 11-5 record but not make the Playoffs, such as
was the case with 11-5 New England in 2008. Remember, there are now FOUR second place
teams in each conference, not just three. In the past it was possible for the top
two finishers in EACH Division to make the Playoffs. Such will no longer be the case.
In 2002, for example, the New York Jets made the Playoffs with just a 9-7 record
by virtue of being the AFC East champions. However, no team with more than 9 wins
missed the Playoffs in 2002. In 2003 only one 10 win team -- Miami -- failed to make
the Playoffs and no team with 9 or fewer wins made the Playoffs. The same was true
in 2005 when Kansas City's 10 wins did not get them into the Playoffs but also no
team with 9 or fewer wins made the field either. In 2006 the New York Giants made
the Playoffs with just 8 wins. In 2007 Cleveland missed the Playoffs despite 10 wins
but no 9 win team failed to make the Playoffs. In 2008 11-5 New England missed the
Playoffs while 8-8 San Diego made them. The 2008 New York Jets also missed the Playoffs
despite their 9-7 record being better than that of the Chargers. And in 2010 both
the Giants and Tampa Bay missed the Playoffs with 10-6 records while NFC West champion
Seattle made them with a 7-9 record. In fact, 18 other teams had the same or a better
record than Seattle while just 13 teams had a weaker record.
In looking at
our 2011 Recommendations and Opinions note that they are presented in the chronological
order in which we have reviewed the teams. Unless otherwise indicated, all Recommendations
are weighted and rated equally within the group at a single unit. In certain cases
where the Over or Under we prefer is so highly priced that we cannot in good conscience
recommend a straight play equal to one unit we will likely classify that play as
either a Strong or Weak Opinion, worth at most a half unit play. Generally these
will be teams where the Over/Under we prefer is priced at - 140 or higher.
Also,
please note that there may be hedging opportunities late in the season if some of
our Recommendations/Opinions are to be decided in the final week or two.
In general, in the past, my analysis
begins with a look at those teams I clearly expect to make the Playoffs.
In
2003 there were only two teams (Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) whose projected Total
Wins were greater than 9 1/2.
In 2004 there were 7 teams with projected wins
of at least 10.
For 2005 there were 5 teams with projected win totals of 10
or higher.
In 2006 there were 6 such teams.
In 2007 there were just
4 teams with projected win totals of 10 or higher (Chicago, Indianapolis, New England
and San Diego).
In 2008, there were 5 teams projected to win 10 or more games,
no teams projected at 9 1/2 wins and just 1 team at 9 wins. That means there were
to be a minimum of at least 6 teams that would make the Playoffs who were projected
to win fewer than 9 games! The ONLY NFC team with a projected win total of more than
8 1/2 was Dallas. That means the the Division winners of the NFC North, South and
West were all projected to win fewer than 9 games.
In 2009 only 4 teams carried
double digit win projections -- New England (11 1/2), Pittsburgh (10 1/2), Indianapolis
(10) and the New York Giants (10). 2 other teams have projections of 9 1/2 wins (Philadelphia
and San Diego) and 4 more teams are projected to win 9 games (Dallas, Green Bay,
Minnesota and Tennessee). The top teams in the NFC South and NFC West carry projections
of just 8 1/2 wins. Note that in 2008 Arizona won the NFC West with a 9-7 mark and
2 teams in the NFC South each topped the 8 1/2 games projected for that Division's
winner as Carolina went 12-4 and Atlanta finished 11-5.
In 2010 just 4 teams
has projected wins of 10 or more (Baltimore, Indianapolis, New Orleans and San Diego).
Two more teams (Dallas and Green Bay) had projected to win 9 1/2 games but carried
a huge vig towards the OVER (minus 175 and minus 150) that they are pretty much held
in similar regard. Minnesota, New England and the New York Jets were also priced
at 9 1/2 but with reasonable vigs towards the OVER of minus 125 or less. One team
-- Atlanta -- was projected to win 9 games but also has a heavy vig to the OVER of
minus 140.
But in 2011 -- again, with the unique circumstances created by
an inactive offseason -- a whopping total of 9 teams are projected to have double
digit wins with both Green Bay and New England topping the charts at 11 1/2 wins
with only slight vigs attached to the UNDER (-125 and -130 respectively). Baltimore,
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are each projected to win 10 1/2 games with Atlanta,
New Orleans, the New York Jets and San Diego each pegged at 10 wins.
Since
Divisional Reallignment occurred beginning in 2002 -- 8 Divisions of 4 teams each
-- ONLY TWICE (San Diego in 2008 and Seattle in 2010) have there been Division winners
with fewer than 9 wins -- Of the 72 Division winners between 2002 and 2010, there
have also been just 5 Division winners to finish 9-7 (the Jets in 2002, Seattle in
both 2004 and 2006, Tampa Bay in 2007 and Arizona in 2008). The other 65 Division
winners have won AT LEAST 10 Games, including all 7 of 8 Division winners last season,
2010.
As stated above, 80% of all Playoff teams since 1990 have won at least
10 games. Also remember that history tells us that 5 or 6 teams that DID NOT make
the Playoffs last season WILL make the Playoffs this season
And, in looking
towards UNDERs, keep in mind that historically about 7 teams will finish the season
with 5 or fewer wins. Only 1 team, Carolina (4 1/2), is projected to win 5 or fewer
games in 2011 with 3 more teams (Buffalo, Cincinnati and Denver) projected at 5 1/2
wins..
Here, then, are the Recommendations and Opinions for the 2011 NFL
season.
OAKLAND RAIDERS -- UNDER 7 (Priced
at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Following their loss to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl
XXXVII the Oakland Raiders had 7 straight losing seasons from 2003 through 2009,
winning no more than 5 games in any of those seasons. Taking over from Lane Kiffin
4 games into the 2008 season Tom Cable let the Silver and Black to a 4-8 finish in
2008 and then a 5-11 mark in 2009. But in 2010 he led the Raiders to their first
non-losing season in 8 years, finishing 8-8. His reward? Being fired by team owner
Al Davis. The Raiders have long been thought of as one of professional sports' most
dysfuntional franchises and the firing of Cable just as he appeared to be turning
the franchise around has done little to change that opinion. The loss of several
key players on both sides of the football suggest initially that Oakland should decline
in 2011 and will be hard pressed to match last season's 8-8. This is further supported
by a look at how the Raiders managed to finish .500 last season. 6 of their 8 wins
came as a result of sweeping their 6 AFC West Divisional games, a feat that is unlikely
to be repeated in 2011. Best case scenario is a 3-3 split although it's also conceivable
that the Raiders could split with Denver and lose 3 of 4 (if not all 4) with San
Diego and Kansas City. Their other two wins in 2010 came at the expense of a pair
of teams in the NFL's weakest Division, the NFC West with home wins over Seattle
and St Louis. Their interleague schedule in 2011 is against the NFC North wth all
4 games being played in a 5 week period from mid November to mid December. The Raiders
should take a step backwards this season and a viable candidate for being one of
the teams that wins 5 or fewer games with a 6-10 record likely being their ceiling
for the coming season. At the modest vig of minus 110 to go UNDER 7 (or even taking
a slight plus price to go UNDER 6 1/2) Oakland is our first solid Recommendation
for the 2011 season. Recommendation Date -- August 8, 2011.
DALLAS
COWBOYS -- OVER 9 (Priced at + 135 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Dallas is in much
better shape with Jason Garrett as head coach than with Wade Phillips from whom Garrett
took the reins as head coach in the middle of last season. Dallas was 6-10 last season
as QB Tony Romo was lost 6 games into the season (Dallas was just 1-5 in those games).
Garrett was able to coax a 5-3 mark after taking over for Phillips with the Cowboys
playing hard and up to their talent level down the stretch. Dallas remains a talented
and well balanced team on both sides of the football and Garrett has the strong support
of ownership and the respect of his players. Over the past 8 seasons Dallas has won
at least 9 games in 6 of those seasons, three times winning double digits. In fact,
with Tony Romo at QB Dallas won 13 games in 2007, 9 in 2008 and 11 in 2009. Dallas
should avoid the stumbling start of 2010 and after an opening game at the Jets, Dallas
faces 3 straight foes who were also 6-10 in 2010 -- at rebuilding San Franciso and
then hosting Washington and Detroit. They replace the AFC South (against whom they
were 2-2 last season) with the AFC East, getting the two weakest teams, Buffalo and
Miami, at home. They also replace the NFC North (against whom they were 1-3 in 2010)
with the NFL's weakest Division, the NFC West. All in all the Cowboys are much more
likely to finish 10-6 or better than they are 8-8 or worse and at the attractive
plus price to win more than 9 games the OVER is a solid Recommendation. Recommendation
Date -- August 23, 2011.
CAROLINA PANTHERS -- UNDER 4 1/2 (Priced
at - 100 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The Panthers slipped from 12-4 in 2008 to 8-8
in 2009 and then plummeted to 2-14 in 2010, costing long time head coach John Fox
his job. Injuries were part of the problem but that was just a small part of the
explanation. Things look no better in 2011 as their 3 Divisions went a combined 34-14
in 2010 with Atlanta and New Orleans making the Playoffs while 10-6 Tampa Bay missed
out on a Wild Card due to tiebrekers. Carolina was 0-6 in Division play last season
and the prospects for much of an improvement are not great as those 3 Division rivals
each appear as strong -- or stronger -- than last season. Carolina was 0-4 against
the AFC North last season and this season things don't get any easier as they will
face the AFC South. Carolina's lone pair of wins last season came against the weak
NFC West and this season the Panthers will face all 4 teams in the NFC North in addition
to games against Arizona and Washington. Each year up to a half dozen teams fail
to win at least 5 games and Carolina is a prime candidate -- perhaps the best candidate
-- to be in that group in 2011. Not only do they have a new coach in Ron Rivera but
Rivera has no previous head coaching experience so he'll be learning on the job as
he makes the transition from defensive coordinator (San Diego and Chicago) to the
head man. Adding to the bleak prospects will be the Panthers' likely reliance on
a rookie QB, Cam Newton, or, if Newton does not get the starting nod, second season
QB Jimmy Claussen. The Panthers have a solid pair of running backs but not much else
and 2011 will be a season of growing pains. While 2010's 2-14 mark may have been
the bottom, the prospects for more than an additional win, or two, do not appear
to be very good. Recommendation Date -- August 26, 2011.
HOUSTON
TEXANS -- UNDER 9 (Priced at + 140 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Although there are
several candidates for the breakout team of 2011 none seems to have received as much
hype as have the Houston Texans -- a team that plays its tenth season in 2011 and
has never won more than 9 games in a season. After going 8-8 in both 2008 and 2009
the stage was set for major improvement in 2010 but the Texans regressed to 6-10.
Much of the nucleus of this team has been in place over the past few seasons, including
head coach Gary Kubiak who came with a hightly touted reputation as Mike Shanahan's
right hand man in Denver. But thus far Kubiak and his team has greatly underachieved.
Much of the optimism for 2011 comes from the expected decline of long time Division
power Indianapolis, which might be without QB Peyton Manning when the teams meet
in Houston on Opening Day, a team they defeated on this field 34-24 last season on
Opening Day. The Texans were 3-3 in Divisional Play last season and this season substitute
the NFC South for the NFC East (1-3 in 2010) in interleague play and must also face
the 4 teams in the AFC North after going only 2-2 vs the AFC West in 2010. Their
other two games are certainly more winnable (Miami and Oakland) than their non-common
pair of foes last season Baltimore and the Jets, both losses). And the defense is
expected to be better with Wade Phillips taking over as coordinator. But we've seen
these expectations before and even within their Division the teams expected to finish
below both Houston and Indy, Jacksonville and Tennessee, are not pushovers. All in
all until they can finally win a big game and avoid the multiple fourth quarter collapses
that have marked their recent seasons it's more reasonable to expect the Texans to
finish 8-8 or worse rather than 10-6 or better. And the 'plus' vig makes expecting
history to somewhat repeat itself an attractive option. Recommendation Date --
September 3, 2011.
ST LOUIS RAMS - OVER 7 1/2 (Priced at - 110
at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Recommendation Date -- September 10, 2011
Often, Strong Opinions differ from both Recommendations and Weak Opinions in the following way. In making a Recommendation both the Total Number of Wins and the +/- Price must be favorable, especially since there is a several month wait before the results are known. As such it may be impractical or uncomfortable in making a Recommendation on a team to go Over or Under a specified number -- even though the assigned probabilities may be great -- if to do so means laying a price say, in excess of minus 130. Thus a Strong Opinion may often be looked at a play that would have been looked at as a Recommended Play but for the 'vig' attached whereas a Weak Opinion is one that is classified as such more likely because the probabilites assigned to the Over/Under are such that the likelihood of a winning result is considerably less than that of a Recommendation.
PHILAELPHIA EAGLES -- OVER 10
1/2 (Priced at - 130 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- This is virtually a repetition of
our Recommendation from last season in which we recommended the Eagles to go OVER
8 1/2. They finished 10-6 despite losing their final 2 regular season games after
having already clinched the NFC East title. It's about time Eagles Coach Andy Reid
gets credit for squeezing the most out of his team season after season. In his first
season, 1999, the Eagles were projected to win 5 games and did exactly that, going
5-11 and PUSHING the season Total. In the 11 seasons since Reid's Eagles have gone
OVER the Total 9 times and fallen UNDER just twice -- and one of those UNDERs was
in 2005 when QB McNabb was lost for half a season to injury, RB Westbrook also missed
significant time and there was the major Terrell Owens controversy. The other UNDER
came in 2007 when Philly finished 8-8 with a projected win Total of 9. Reid's record
of 9-2-1 is spectacular in this era of parity. Sure, QB Michael Vick had an outstanding
2010 season that will be difficult to duplicate and backup QB Kevin Kold has been
replaced by Vince Young. The defense was a weakness in 2010, especially the secondary,
and that deficiency was addressed in a major way with a pair of recent acquisitions.
Special teams remains a strength longtime Buffalo coach Mike April taking charge
in 2010. Philly has won at least 10 games in 9 of the past 11 seasons, winning 11
or more 6 times. The talent level on both sides of the football is at an all time
high and depth is there with a solid blend of youth and veteran leadership to expect
the Eagles to again contend for the Playoffs and perhaps could achieve the top seed
in the NFC with an excellent chance to be one of the expected 4 teams to win at least
12 games. Only the rush of public money that moved this Total up from the 9 1/2 at
which the Eagles opened at other properties -- and the possibility that this Total
could rise to 11 and/or see the OVER vig rise even more -- keeps this as a Strong
Opinion rather than a Full Recommendation. In fact, if you are able to find the Eagles
at 10 1/2 and minus 120 or less to the OVER, consider this to be a Full Recommendation
instead. Opinion Date -- August 8, 2011.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -- UNDER
6 (Priced at - 130 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Playing in the weak NC West, Seattle
became, in 2010, the first team to make the Playoffs with a losing record as their
7-9 mark was good enough to win the Division title. Although they took the momentum
of their final game Divison clinching win to a home Playoff win the following weak
against New Orleans, the Seahawks were not a very good team last season and appear
even weaker this season after not re-signing long time QB Matt Hasselbeck, preferring
instead to sign ex-Minnesota QB Tavaris Jackson after Minnesota decided he was not
their QB of the future. Head coach Pete Carroll has long had his troubles leading
an NFL team and was perfectly suited for the college game but left USC ostensibly
to avoid having to deal with the sanctions imposed shortly thereafter for recruiting
violations that occurred during his tenure. Seattle was 4-2 within the Division last
season and whereas they may have taken a step backwards it can be argued that their
three Division rivals -- Arizona, St Louis and San Francisco -- have all made improvements
in significant areas. Adding to their 2011 difficulties are that their two "non-common,
record related foe" as the result of finishing first in the Division last season
are Atlanta and Chicago -- teams that were 13-3 and 11-5 last season, more like Division
winners should be. Prior to last season's 7-9 mark Seattle had already been in decline,
posting marks of 4-12 in 2008 and 5-11 in 2009 after dominating the NFC West from
2003 through 2007. It's hard to make a case given the new QB situation and a general
dirth of talent, to make a case for the Seahawks equalling or exceeding last season's
7 wins. More likely the 2011 team will be more like the 2008 and 2009 versions, even
if Jackson does not work out and Seattle turns to the more experienced, though lightly
tested, Charlie Whitehurst. Opinion Date -- August 26, 2011.
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS -- OVER 11 1/2 (Priced at Even at Las Vegas Hilton) -- The Pats were
perhaps the quietest 14-2 team in NFL history last season, largely because of their
early ouster from the Playoffs. New England has not won a Playoff game since losing
the Super Bowl following what had been an 18-0 start to the 2007 season. New England's
success last season was due greatly to QB Brady's ability to avoid turnovers. The
Playoff vulnerability was due to a leaky defense -- a defense that seems to have
been shored up through several key acquisitions during the frenzied free agency period
this summer. The nucleus of the team remains intact and there's been depth added
at several positions. Of course a healthy Brady is key to the Pats' success but that
is true of every team in the league. This is a sound organization from top to bottom
with one of the league's best head coaches in Bill Belichick. We saw early in preseason
the no nonsense approach taken by the Pats and that should translate into
one of the league's best records once again and quite likely a # 1 seed come Playoff
time. This team is more than capable of winning at least a dozen games with 13-3
or a repeat of 14-2 quite likely. Opinion Date -- September 3, 2011.
CINCINNATI
BENGALS -- UNDER 5 1/2 (Priced at - 150 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- But for the high
vigorish attached to the UNDER this would have been a full Recommendation. This is
a franchise in total disarray -- so much so that long time starting QB Carson Palmer
"retired" rather than return for the 2011 season after his request to be
traded was turned down by ownership. Thus rookie QB Andy Dalton will lead the Bengals'
offense this season and will be without the top two receivers from 2010 as both Terrell
Owens and Chad Ochocinco are gone. The lack of time to learn the Playbook and get
integrated into the system due to the lockout will likely have detrimental effects
on Dalton. The Bengals could go winless in the Division (they were 2-4 in 2010) as
Baltimore and Pittsburgh remain among the league's top teams and Cleveland appears
much improved. Given the entire culture surrounding this organization the Bengals
are an ideal candidate to be one of the half dozen teams that should win less than
5 games. But the high - 150 vig tempers the enthusiasm. Opinion Date -- September
3, 2011.
GREEN BAY PACKERS -- OVER 11 1/2 (Priced at + 135 at Las
Vegas Hilton) -- The defending Super Bowl champs face a formidable challenge
if they are to successfully defend ther title in 2011 but this season's Packers may
be even better than last season's championship squad. For one, the Packers suffered
an inordinate number of injuries last season and actually qualified for the Playoffs
as a Wild Card, winning three straight road games to advance to face, and defeat,
Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl. They had a fine 10-6 season and got hot at the right
time but the nucleus of this team, headed by QB Aaron Rodgers, still has plenty of
upside as many key players, including Rodgers, have yet to reach the peak years of
their careers. The defense was also a strength but was often overshadowed by the
play of the offense. And they are clearly the best team in the NFC North with Chicago
seemingly down a bit from last season and Detroit, while improved, not quite ready
to challenge the Pack for the Division title. History suggests that on average at
least 4 teams will win 12 or more games this season and Green Bay appears to be as
likely a candidate as any to vie for the top seed in the NFC with such a record.
The attractive "plus" price strengthens this play and only the high total
that leaves a small margin for error in the case of injuries keeps this from being
a full Recommendation. Opinion Date -- September 7, 2011.
ARIZONA
CARDINALS -- OVER 7 1/2 (Priced at + 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Arizona's superiority
atop the NFC West a few years back was tied to the QB play of Kurt Warner. But when
Warner retired his loss was felt by the Cardinals perhaps as much as the loss of
any single player to any team. Arizona's trade for Philly's Kevin Kolb strengthens
the one area of weakness that marked the decline of the Cards in 2010 and Arizona
now rates as co-favorites with St Louis as the teams to beat in the Division. Arizona
is well coached and should bounce back to at least a .500 season in 2011 and, if
they can win 9 games, that should be good enough to win the West. The most likely
scenario has Arizona finishing at least 8-8 making the plus a take as we are asking
Arizona to match or exceed the 8 wins they achieved in the 3 straight seasons prior
to 2010. Opinion Date -- September 10, 2011.
ATLANTA FALCONS
-- OVER 10 (Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September
10, 2011.
BUFFALO BILLS -- OVER 5 1/2 (Priced at - 135 at Las Vegas
Hilton) -- Chan Gailey begins his second season as coach of the Bills and often
we see teams show improvement in their second seasons under established head coaches.
The Bills have improved their defense, a sore spot a season ago. And QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
is now entrenched as the starter. He performed well in 2010 and figures to be as
good, if not better, in 2011 despite some changes in receiving personnel. The ground
game adds balance and Buffalo is poised to overtake Miami for third place in the
AFC East. They get to play all 4 teams from the releatively weak AFC West in addition
to both Cincinnati and Tennessee, a pair of teams that seemingly are lagging behind
the Bills in the rebuilding process. While a run at a winning record may be a stretch,
Buffalo should be able to notch at least 6 wins -- a figure they achieved or exceeded
in each of the 4 seasons prior to last season's 4-12 mark. In fact, since their AFC
dynasty of the early nineties, the Bills have not had back to back seasons of fewer
than 6 sins. But the vig keeps this as an Opinion rather than a Full Recommendation.
Opinion Date -- September 10, 2011.
DENVER BRONCOS -- OVER 6
(Priced at - 130 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September 10, 2011
JACKSONVILLE
JAGUARS -- UNDER 6 (Priced at - 110 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September
10, 2011
MINNESOTA VIKINGS -- UNDER 7 (Priced at Even Miney at
Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September 10, 2011
NEW YORK
GIANTS -- UNDER 9 (Priced at -125 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinin Date -- September
10, 2011
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -- OVER 10 1/2 (Priced at -130 at Las
Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September 10, 2011
MIAMI DOLPHINS
-- UNDER 7 1/2 (Priced at - 130 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinin Date -- September
10, 2011
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -- UNDER 9 1/2 -- NO ACTION -- TAKEN
OFF BOARDS DUE TO PEYTON MANNING INJURY
DETROIT LIONS -- OVER 8
(Priced at - 145 at Las Vegas Hitlon) -- The Lions are the 'hot' team this season
with the majority of observers calling for this long forlorn franchise to make major
strides in 2011 with some expecting Detroit to actually make the Playoffs as a Wild
Card. While those prospects might be a bit too optimistic the Lions clearly are a
team headed in the right direction with an outstand QB/WR combination and a pair
of stud pass rushers. Still, there have been reports of Detroit optimism before in
recent seasons and until they deliver we have to be somewhat cautious, expecially
at such a high vig to back the OVER. But given the more positive developments of
the past two seasons since Jim Swartz took over as head coach and other personnel
changes were made in management the Lions should continue the progress they showed
at the end of last season and a 9-7 record appears much more likely than 7-9 or worse,
especially with Chicago appearing to be down and Minnesota in a rebuilding mode.
Opinion Date -- September 3, 2011.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -- OVER
10 (Priced at - 165 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Much like Green Bay the Saints figure
to be very much in the thick of the battle for the top seed in the NFC which suggests
from 11 to 13 wins are likely, thus suggesting a play on the OVER 10. But the high
vig of minus 165 can keep this only as a weak opinion for a couple of key reasons.
First, unlike Green Bay, the Saints play in a highly competitive Division, the NFC
South, that saw both Atlanta and Tampa Bay record double digit win seasons in 2010.
Both of those teams appear at least as strong, if not stronger, than last season.
That includes an improving Tampa Bay team that fared well against a very easy schedule
last season but still is a team on the improve. Secondly there are still concerns
about the defense that still has to prove it can compete at a championship caliber
level. Injuries, of course, are always a risk but that risk exists for all teams.
However, in looking for a team to go OVER its total that risk is heightened. The
injury risk for a team played to stay UNDER may actually be a benefit. While the
chances of New Orleans going 11-5 or better are significantly better than they are
for the Saints to finish 9-7 or worse there are better plays to be made on season
win totals than to lay such a high vig. Opinion Date -- September 7, 2011.
CHICAGO
BEARS -- UNDER 8 (Priced at -140 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Chicago is one of the
most difficult teams to forecast following their 11-5 mark of a season ago. The Bears
still have an above average defense and an offense that figures to improve with a
more than capable QB in Jay Cutler. But the Bears will be hurt by the new kickoff
rules and they don't have a great deal of depth on either side of the football. Our
forecast calls for the Bears to finish anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6 so 8-8 seems to
be the right total. With the possibility of more going wrong than right the preference
is for the UNDER. The high vig keeps this as nothing more than a Weak Opinion, one
of our weakest. Opinion Date -- September 10, 2011.
BALTIMORE
RAVENS -- UNDER 10 (Priced at Even at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September
10, 2011.
CLEVELAND BROWNS -- OVER 7 -- Priced at - 140 at Las
Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September 10, 2011
KANSAS CITY
CHIEFS -- UNDER 7 1/2 (Priced at - 135 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September
10, 2011
NEW YORK JETS -- UNDER 10 (Priced at -120 at Las Vegas
Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September 10, 2011
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
-- OVER 10 1/2 (Priced at - 130 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September
10, 2011
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -- UNDER 7 1/2 (Priced at -140 at
Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September 10, 2011
TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERS -- OVER 8 (Priced at + 120 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September
10, 2011
TENNESSEE TITANS -- OVER 6 1/2 (Priced at - 145 at Las
Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September 10, 2011
WASHINGTON
REDSKINS -- OVER 6 (Priced at - 140 at Las Vegas Hilton) -- Opinion Date -- September
10, 2011