.
                 Open     Open     Open     Curr     Curr     Curr 
TEAM             Wins     OVER     UNDR     Wins     OVER     UNDR 
--------------  ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
Arizona          7 1/2    -140     +120     7 1/2    -135     +115 
Atlanta          4 1/2    -160     +140     4 1/2    -125     +105 
Baltimore        6        +120     -140     6        -130     +110 
Buffalo          7 1/2    -175     +155     7 1/2    -140     +120 
Carolina         7 1/2    -140     +120     7 1/2    -150     +130 
Chicago          8        -110     -110     7 1/2    -115     -105 
Cincinnati       7        -140     +120     7        -130     +110 
Cleveland        8        -120     Even     8        -115     -105 
Dallas          10 1/2    -150     +130    10 1/2    -135     +115 
Denver           7 1/2    -135     +115     7 1/2    -165     +145 
Detroit          6 1/2    -130     +110     6 1/2    -115     -105 
Green Bay        8 1/2    +130     -150     8 1/2    +130     -150 
Houston          7 1/2    -110     -110     7 1/2    -130     +110 
Indianapolis    11        +150     -170    11        +130     -150 
Jacksonville    10        -120     Even    10        -105     -115 
Kansas City      5 1/2    -140     +120     5 1/2    -160     +140 
Miami            5 1/2    -120     Even     5 1/2    -105     -115 
Minnesota        8 1/2    +105     -125     8 1/2    -140     +120 
New England     12        -120     Even    12        -175     +155 
New Orleans      8 1/2    -140     +120     8 1/2    -165     +145 
N Y Giants       8 1/2    -130     +110     8 1/2    -145     +125 
N Y Jets         7 1/2    -150     +130     8        -135     +115 
Oakland          6        -160     +140     6        -120     Even 
Philadelphia     8 1/2    -140     +120     8 1/2    -170     +150 
Pittsburgh       9        -130     +110     9        -110     -110 
St Louis         6 1/2    -140     +120     6 1/2    -125     +105 
San Diego       10 1/2    -140     +120    10 1/2    -160     +140 
San Francisco    6        -150     +130     6        -150     +130 
Seattle          8 1/2    -150     +130     8 1/2    -170     +150 
Tampa Bay        8        +110     -130     8        -140     +120 
Tennessee        8        -110     -110     8        Even     -120 
Washington       7 1/2    -120     Even     7 1/2    -125     +105 

In approaching an analysis of playing individual teams to go Over or Under their respective win totals, several global perspectives need to be looked at first.

One key thing to keep in mind is that the public is usually geared to thinking in the positive -- i.e. that things will happen rather than that they won't. In other words, much as the public tends to prefer Favorites over Underdogs in betting the pointspread, and tends to prefer betting Over the Total Points as opposed to Under the Total Points in individual games, the Team Over/Under wins are geared more to betting the Over rather than the Under.

Yet in recent years the public -- especially the so-called "Wise Guys" part of the public -- has become more enlightened about sports betting in general, and Over/Under Season Wins in particular.

Interestingly, for 2008, if you total up the number of wins in the above chart for all 32 NFL teams you will find that the sum is 252.5. In past seasons it was not unusual for the "projected" wins to total in the mid to upper 260's. A look at the "vig" attached to the Overs and Unders shows that there has been a shift in that rather than having the public play OVER inflated Win Totals, the public must now pay an unusually high "vig" to play OVER more realistic (and slightly lower) Win Totals. More about this shortly as this is a significant change/development.

Barring any games that end in ties, there can only be 256 wins accumulated by the league as a whole, 256 being the total number of regular season games to be played. Thus there is an inherent bias towards the UNDER in 2008 which means that on a global basis there is slight value in betting the OVER (although, as this season's Total of 252.5 shows, any bias/value has been virtually eliminated).

Going even further, if one were to bet every team to go Over their total, because of the half wins for several of the teams it would take 275 wins overall to cash each ticket, or a league record for 256 games of 275-237, a spread of 38 games. If you were to bet every team OVER the total and those teams on even numbers landed on those numbers you are still looking at a total number of games of 262 to WIN or PUSH betting every team to go OVER their Total, a variance of 12 games (262-250) from the 256 being playedl (this would result in 19 wins and 13 pushes).

Obviously this is impossible but compare this scenario to betting Under for all teams in which case the total number of wins needed to cash every ticket drops to 230, or an overall record of 230-282, a spread of 52 games. To WIN or PUSH every team going UNDER it Total would require a total of exactly 243 wins, a variance of 26 games (243-269) from the total number of 256 games to be played (this would result in the same 19 wins and 13 pushes, obviously, since only the 19 teams with "half games" would not result in those Pushes).

Numerically the value slightly lies with the OVER in 2008 although we know that some of teams shall also fall below their expected number of wins. One way to get an overview of what the linesmaker expects is to recast the above table in the form of projected standings, division by division. By doing this exercise we get the following projections.

.
   AFC EAST                           NFC EAST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   New England     12.0 -  4.0        Dallas          10.5 -  5.5        
   N Y Jets         7.5 -  8.5        Philadelphia     8.5 -  7.5        
   Buffalo          7.5 -  8.5        N Y Giants       8.5 -  7.5        
   Miami            5.5 - 10.5        Washington       7.5 -  8.5        


   AFC NORTH                          NFC NORTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Pittsburgh       9.0 -  7.0        Minnesota        8.5 -  7.5        
   Cleveland        8.0 -  8.0        Green Bay        8.5 -  7.5        
   Cincinnati       7.0 -  9.0        Chicago          7.5 -  8.5        
   Baltimore        6.0 - 10.0        Detroit          6.5 -  9.5        


   AFC SOUTH                          NFC SOUTH                          
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   Indianapolis    11.0 -  5.0        New Orleans      8.5 -  7.5        
   Jacksonville    10.0 -  6.0        Tampa Bay        8.0 -  8.0        
   Tennessee        8.0 -  8.0        Carolina         7.5 -  8.5        
   Houston          7.5 -  8.5        Atlanta          4.0 - 12.0        


   AFC WEST                           NFC WEST                           
   --------------  ------------       --------------  ------------       
   San Diego       10.5 -  5.5        Seattle          8.5 -  7.5        
   Denver           7.5 -  8.5        Arizona          7.5 -  8.5        
   Oakland          6.0 - 10.0        St Louis         6.5 -  9.5        
   Kansas City      5.5 - 10.5        San Francisco    6.0 - 10.0        

By looking at the projected standings we can often spot teams that look out of place. Such teams are not necessarily those that are predicted to win divisions but rather may be teams projected to finish second or teams projected to finish last.

Note that with divisional realignment in 2002, there are now eight divisions, each with exactly four teams. This represents a dramatic change from the prior alignment which featured five divisions of five teams each and one division of six teams.

Major Change in Bookmaker Approach to NFL Over/Under Season Win Totals
===========================================================
In seasons past there was a built in bias towards playing teams UNDER their season win totals as the sum of all team's projected wins would be significantly greater than the total number of games that would be played during an NFL season. For example, 32 teams playing a 16 game schedule results in a total of 256 regular season games. Often the total projected wins for the 32 teams would sum to the mid to upper 260's. In fact, between 2002 (the first season of 32 teams with the addition of the Houston Texans) through 2006 the sum of Projected Total Wins has been between 261 and 267. Last season saw the sum drop to 257 1/2, just a game and a half more than the number of games to be played, but still with the slightest of edges towards playing the UNDER.

But in 2008 this shift towards lower Projected Total Wins has continued to a point where there is now a numerical edge in playing the OVER. Summing the 32 Projected Win Totals yields a result of just 252 total wins -- 4 fewer than the number of games to be played. But rather than blindly conclued that there is now an edge in playing the OVER, closer inspection shows that any such edge is all but wiped out by the "vig" attached to playing the OVER.

A look at the first chart above shows that for 27 of the 32 teams bettors must lay a vig to play the OVER (using the Opening Lines). For only 5 teams is there a "plus" price on the OVER. Compare that to the UNDER and we see that there are only 8 teams that require the bettor to lay a vig to play the UNDER while the other 24 teams are priced at either Even Money or a plus price on the UNDER.

Two months into the wagering (mid July) there were only 3 teams that carried a "plus" price on the OVER while there were now 29 teams that carried a "minus" vig. For the UNDER there were 10 teams with a "minus" vig while the remaining 22 teams were either at a "plus" vig or at Even Money. A number of the moves were toward "pick ems" where both the OVER and the UNDER had "minus" vigs such as each being - 110 in a true "pick em" wager.

A look at the past 10 seasons of NFL Season Total Overs/Unders (315 team seasons) there have been 147 OVERs, 157 UNDERs and 11 PUSHes -- nearly a 50/50 split that has averaged just 1 more UNDER than OVER per season for 10 seasons. As we all know, the closer results come to being 50/50, the better the Sports Books fare.

So what we are seeing is a major shift in setting season Total Wins. Recognizing that the public generally prefers to bet the OVER, and recognizing that over the long run there will be nearly the same number of teams going OVER their Total Wins as will be going UNDER, by attaching more of a "minus" vig to playing the OVER results in a greater bottom line. What the Books may give up in terms of perhaps one additional OVER winner they will more than make up for in the added "net" vig they will collect on the OVER losers.

Thus, from a "vig" standpoint it has become even more attractive to seek out UNDERs as we are more likely to get them at Even Money or better, even though we may be playing UNDER a number that could be a half game lower than in the past (no way of knowing this, of course, as every season sets up uniquely, but the half game is a reasonable estimate based on the decline in the overall total of projected wins). At the same time, it becomes imperative to proceed cautiously when considering an OVER play as we must now pay a higher price than in the past to back the OVER, even though we are playing OVER a number that is roughly a half game lower than it might have been in the past (for the same reason as just mentioned for the UNDERs).

The approach we outline and discuss below regarding Playoff teams, combined with the detailed history we will provide, is still a valid way of looking for teams to play OVER their Totals while at the same time our similarly outlined approach to playing UNDERs offers greater returns due to the increased "plus" vigs.

In the past, our general approach was twofold -- to look for teams that figure to struggle and thus teams to be played Under the total, taking advantage of the built in value in the Under (now because of the attached vigorish as opposed to the previously discussed win totals). But there is also a strategy geared towards finding teams that may be played Over the total. This strategy involves looking for teams that one expects will make the Playoffs and has a total wins listed of 9 games or less.

In most seasons it will take at least 10 wins to qualify for a Wild Card. In fact, since the NFL adopted its present Playoff format of 12 teams (6 division winners and 6 Wild Cards beginning in 1990, since modified in 2002 with Realignment to 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Card teams but still producing 12 Playoff teams each season) there have been 216 teams to make the Playoffs in those 18 seasons. Of those 216 teams, 173 of them had at least 10 wins and another 36 teams had exactly 9 wins. Only 7 teams made the Playoffs with 8-8 records. Looked at another way, 80.1% of all Playoff teams won at least 10 games and 96.8% of all Playoff teams won at least 9 games. Only 3.2% of all Playoff teams over the past 18 seasons made the Playoffs with just 8 wins.

Thus in looking to play teams Over their posted wins total the best strategy is to look for team with a good chance of making the playoffs and whose win totals are 9 or less. Generally these teams will have win totals between 7 and 9. Remember that 9 wins for a Playoff team should at least get you a 'push' on the Over and you have a better than 4 in 5 chance of cashing your ticket should your team make the Playoffs since such teams wins at least 10 games better than 80% of the time.

In looking at teams you may expect to make the Playoffs use history as a guide. Since the NFL expanded to include 12 teams in the Playoffs in 1990 only an average of 6.3 teams make it to the Playoffs the following a Playoff appearance. That is, of the 12 Playoff teams from 2007 (Dallas, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New England, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington) only 6 or 7 of them can be expected to again make the Playoffs in 2007. Only once, in 1995, did as many as 8 of 12 Playoff teams make the Playoffs again the following season and only in 2003 did as few as 4 teams repeat (in 1999, 2205 and 2006 just 5 teams repeated from the previous season). Thus, 6 or 7 teams from 2007 can be expected to make the Playoffs in 2008. (Note that 6 Playoff teams from 2006 again made the Playoffs last season, in 2007).

Focus your OVER plays on those teams, especially the 5 or 6 teams you think may make the Playoffs this season after having missed out last season. Because of this recent high degree of parity -- in which 18 of the NFL's 32 teams have made the Playoffs over the past 2 seasons -- the OVER becomes more of a value if you are able to identify those teams that did not make the Playoffs a year ago but may have been in the Playoffs 2 or 3 seasons ago and seem to be improved entering this season.

3 teams that did not make the Playoffs in either 2006 or 2007 (Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver) did make the Playoffs 3 seasons ago, in 2005. 11 teams (Arizona - 1998, Atlanta -- 2004, Buffalo - 1999, Cleveland - 2002, Detroit - 1999, Houston -- never, Miami -- 2001, Minnesota -- 2004, Oakland -- 2002, St Louis -- 2004, San Francisco -- 2002) have not made the Playoffs in any of the last 3 seasons.

It is easier to decide upon teams to play Under the total for several reasons, aside from noting that there is built in value in playing the Under. Most developments during the season tend to be negative, generally in the form of extended or season-ending injuries. In looking for teams to play Under it is often a good strategy to look for teams that don't have much depth at several positions, especially at QB and other skill positions. A change in coaching or replacing of key players from the prior season can often lead to a slow start out of the gate.

Also let's look at the opposite of the statistics that define likely Playoff teams. Between 1990 and 2007 there have been 545 individual team seasons. 122 of those teams, or 22.4%, have won 5 or fewer games in a season. 78 of those 122 teams (14.3% of the overall 545 total) have won just 4 or fewer games. Usually, the LOWEST Over/Under Season Win Total will be 5 games. Using the historical percentage of 22.4% it is projected that 7 teams will win 5 or fewer games in 2008. Note that for 2008 only Atlanta (at 4 1/2) is projected to win fewer than 5 games while the next lowest projection is 5 1/2 wins (Kansas City and Miami).

In each season there were at least 2 teams that won 4 or fewer games and at least 4 teams that won 5 or less. Thus we can expect that 3 or 4 teams will win 4 or fewer games in 2008 and that another 2 or 3 teams will win exactly 5 games. Last season saw 6 teams win 4 or fewer games and 2 more win exactly 5 games.

The most likely prospects to win 5 or fewer games would generally be teams projected at 7 wins or less.

In 2007 there were 8 teams with 5 or fewer wins and 10 teams with 10 or more wins. In 2007 Cleveland became just the fifth team since 1990 to win 10 games and not make the Playoffs. The previous 4 such teams also won exactly 10 games -- San Francisco and Philadelphia in 1991, Miami in 2003, Kansas City in 2005).

Obviously 2002's realignment meant that a different type of analysis was needed to project how a team will do in total wins over the course of a season and what number of wins will be needed to make the Playoffs. It will be several seasons before even tentative conclusions may be drawn. Realignment has radically altered scheduling dynamics and how teams will qualify for the Playoffs. For example, in the past every team played at least half of their games against Division rivals. Now a team plays only six of their 16 games against Division foes so by definition Divisional games are not as important as they had been in the past.

Also, the Playoff field is now comprised of 8 Division winners and 4 Wild Cards instead of 6 and 6. Thus we might see teams in an average but competitive Divisions reach the Playoffs by winning a Division with a record of just 8-8. It will also be possible that a team could finish second in a division with a 10-6 record but not make the Playoffs. Remember, there are now FOUR second place teams in each conference, not just three. In the past it was possible for the top two finishers in each Division to make the Playoffs. Such will no longer be the case. In 2002, for example, the New York Jets made the Playoffs with just a 9-7 record by virtue of being the AFC East champions. However, no team with more than 9 wins missed the Playoffs in 2002. In 2003 only one 10 win team -- Miami -- failed to make the Playoffs and no team with 9 or fewer wins made the Playoffs. The same was true in 2005 when Kansas City's 10 wins did not get them into the Playoffs but also no team with 9 or fewer wins made the field either. In 2006 the New York Giants made the Playoffs with just 8 wins. In 2007 Cleveland missed the Playoffs despite 10 wins but no 9 win team failed to make the Playoffs.

In looking at the following recommendations they are presented in the chronological order in which we have reviewed the teams. Unless otherwise indicated, all recommendations are weighted and rated equally at a single unit. In certain cases where the Over or Under we prefer is so highly priced that we cannot in good conscience recommend a straight play equal to one unit we will likely recommend the play at a half unit. Generally these will be teams where the Over/Under we prefer is priced at - 140 or higher.

Also, please note that there may be hedging opportunities late in the season if some of our recommendations will be decided in the final week or two.

Here, then, are our recommendations for the 2008 NFL season.

In general, in the past, our analysis begins with a look at those teams I clearly expect to make the Playoffs. But there is a team in 2008 that I expect to greatly fall short of expectations and thus I will present that Recommendation as the first one for this season before looking at potential Playoff teams.

There is not as much value this season in seeking out such teams as in recent seasons. In 2003 there were only two teams (Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) whose projected Total Wins were greater than 9 1/2. In 2004 there were 7 teams with projected wins of at least 10. For 2005 there were 5 teams with projected win totals of 10 or higher. In 2006 there were 6 such teams. In 2007 there were just 4 teams with projected win totals of 10 or higher (Chicago, Indianapolis, New England and San Diego). Interestingly, for 2008, there are 5 teams projected to win 10 or more games, no teams projected at 9 1/2 wins and just 1 team at 9 wins. That means there will be a minimum of at least 6 teams that will make the Playoffs who are currently projected to win fewer than 9 games! The ONLY NFC team with a projected win total of more than 8 1/2 is Dallas. That means the the Division winners of the NFC North, South and West are all projected to win fewer than 9 games.

Note that since Divisional Reallignment occurred beginning in 2002 -- 8 Divisions of 4 teams each -- there HAS NOT BEEN a Division winner with fewer than 9 wins -- Of the 48 Division winners between 2002 and 2007, there have been ONLY 4 Division winners to finish 9-7 (the Jets in 2002, Seattle in both 2004 and 2006, and Tampa Bay in 2007). The other 44 Division winners have won AT LEAST 10 Games!

As stated above, there is better than a 75% chance that a Playoff team will have won at least 10 games. Remember that history tells us that 5 or 6 teams that DID NOT make the Playoffs last season WILL make the Playoffs this season

Also, in looking towards UNDERs, keep in mind that historically about 7 teams will finish the season with 5 or fewer wins. Only 1 team, Oakland (5), is projected to win 5 or fewer games.

Cleveland Browns -- UNDER 8 (Priced at + 110) -- The Browns are to be commended for their excellent 10-6 season in 2007 in which they missed the Playoffs due to tie breakers with Pittsburgh (for the AFC North Division Title) and to Tennessee (for the second AFC Wild Card). Prior to their breakout 2007 season, however, the Browns were 4-12 in 2006, 6-10 in 2005, 4-12 in 2004 and 5-11 in 2003 following their lone Playoff appearance from their 9-7 Wild Card season of 2002. Such a dramatic one season turnaround quite often results in a reversal the following season. In fact, within their own Division we saw Cincinnati go from 11-5 in 2005 (following a pair of 8-8 seasons) back to 8-8 in 2006. Baltimore went from 13-3 in 2006 back to 6-10 in 2007 (the same record they had in 2005). Thus a drop off from 10-6 for Cleveland is quite forseeable, especially in light of the following, and has already been taken into account by the oddsmakers with their posing of just 8 wins, already a decline of 2 wins from last season. Cleveland played a very favorable schedule in 2007. They defeated only ONE team with a winning record -- a 33-30 mid season win over Seattle. Cleveland's opponents overall had the second worst record of any team's opponents in the leaague last season (110-146). The team with a worse opponents' record (106-150 -- worst in the league)? Yep. Seattle. To make matter worse for the Brownies they can be staring at an 0-4 start in 2008 with their first two games at home against Playoff teams from last season (Dallas and Division rival Pittsburgh) followed by a pair of Divisional road games (at Baltimore and Cincinnati) before their week 5 Bye. Add in a potential QB controversy with incombent Derek Anderson and the eagerly awaited and high priced Brady Quinn, a running game relying on the aging Jamal Lewis and a very suspect defense and a decline back to days of 5-11 or 6-10 should not surprise. Recommendation Date -- July 16, 2008.


Indianapolis Colts -- OVER 11 (Priced at + 145) -- Yes, QB Peyton Manning's recent knee "procedure" will sideline him for most if not all of pre season but he is expected to be the starting QB when the Colts open the regular season at home against Chicago on September 7. The Colts have been virtually every bit as dominant as has been New England for the better part of this decade. Indy has won at least 12 games in each of the past 5 seasons, beginning in 2003, and have also won a Super Bowl. In the early part of this streak under coach Tony Dungy, the Colts had an average, at best, defense, to complement the high powered offense. Over the past several seasons the defense-minded Dungy has been able to get the defense to show solid improvement. After allowing 366 yards per game in 2004, the Colts have allowed 306, 314 and 287 the past 3 seasons while also seeing the points allowed to rank better than average, including allowing just 17 points per game last season. The offense has declined only slightly in terms of the raw stats but the secondary stats show that Indy's offense remains among the most effective in the NFL. After winning the Super Bowl following the 2006 season, their loss to San Diego in their first Playoff game last season should have the Colts well prepared in 2008 under the even keeled, well organized Dungy. Recall that the Colts started 7-0 last season and their 3 regular season losses were by 4, 2 and 6 points including a meaningless 16-10 loss in the season finale that had no bearing on the Playoff seedings. Look for the Colts to again win 12 or 13 games as they are still the best team in the AFC South and argualy right up there with New England and San Diego as the best team in the league. Recommendation Date -- July 21, 2008.


St Louis Rams -- UNDER 6 1/2 (Priced at + 105) -- This franchise has been in a steady decline since making the Playoffs 5 times in the 6 seasons between 1999 and 2004, which included 2 Super Bowl appearances (1 win, 1 loss). Since 2005 the Rams have gone 6-10, 8-8 and 3-13 while playing in arguably the weakest of the 8 NFL Divisions, the NFC West where over the past 3 seasons only the Division winner has made the Playoffs -- the NFC North is the only other Division not to produce a Wild Card team over the 3 seasons. This is an aging team on both sides of the ball and their star RB Steven Jackson, in addition to being a 2008 holdout, was banged up much of last season. The other 3 teams in the Division have gotten stronger this past off season and the Rams are just 4-14 against fellow NFC West teams over the last 3 seasons (although there have been many close losses). Still, the Rams have long been a franchise that has been tight fisted when it comes to spending money. This team could be dispirited following a very tough starting schedule as 5 of their first 7 games are against teams that made the Playoffs last season and the other two games are against a pair of teams expected to be Playoff contenders this season (Philadelphia and Buffalo). The offense averaged under 300 yards per game last season, largely due to Jackson missing considerable time, but the passing game of QB Marc Bulger averaged just 202 ypg. In order to exceed thier projection of 6 1/2 wins the Rams would have to more than double the 3 wins they had in 2007. 8 of their 13 losses last season were by at least 14 points. Best case scenario has the Rams going 5-11. At a plus price the UNDER is a solid play. Recommendation Date -- August 19, 2008.


Oakland Raiders -- OVER 6 (Priced at - 120) -- The Raiders were a popular choice last season to exceed their season win Total of 5 wins. They started 2-2 and then lost 6 in a row to stand at 2-8 before defeating Kansas City and Denver in back to back weeks. But 4 straight losses to end the season made fo a 4-12 record and much disappointment for their backers. But that 4-12 mark is a bit deceiving and shows the fine line between winning and losing. Included in last season's 12 losses were losses by 3, 2, 4, 7, 7 and points. With any kind of offense that 4-12 could have been as good as 10-6 and more likely right around .500. The lengthy holdout of last season's top draft choice, QB Jamarcus Russell, cost this team dearly. No such problem this season as top choice RB Darren McFadden was signed early and he and Russell will be keys in improving an offense that has averaged under 300 yards per game each of the past 2 seasons. Off season moves to improve the defense also suggest an improved season in 2008. Part of the defensive problems the past few seasons were the result of having to support an inept offense. After doing winless in Division play in both 2005 and 2006 -- part of a Division winless streak that ultimately reached 17 in a row -- the Raiders had those back to back wins last season and finished 2-4 in the AFC West. Small signs of progress but psotive signs nonetheless. While not calling for Oakland to contend for the Playoffs this season, a record of 8-8 is quite achievable especially with a schedule that features just 4 games against teams that made the Playoffs in 2007 (including two against Division rival San Diego). OVER 6 is the play and the vig attached is reasonable. Recommendation Date -- August 19, 2008.


Chicago Bears -- UNDER 7 1/2 (Priced at - 105) -- Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman at Quarterback. It hardly matters. The Bears figure to again have one of the league's weakest offenses. After losing some key receivers and cutting arguably their best runner in the off season one must wonder from where the offense will come? Likely to rely on a rookie RB (Matt Forte) this could be a long season for a team without a solid QB. The defense will again be the team's strength but it is an aging defense. Key players -- such as LB Brian Urlacher -- have missed time the past few seasons with injuries and opponents, not having to fear the Chicago offense, will take many chances of their own on offense. The Bears are not build to play from behind. After going 11-5 in 2005 and 13-3 in their Super Bowl season of 2006 the Bears dropped to 7-9 last season. This defense has shown a corresponding drop from allowing 291 ypg in 2005 to allowing 307 in 2006 to allowing 355 last season. To make things tougher the Bears' AFC games this season are against the four teams in the AFC South (which saw Houston go 8-8 in 2007, Indianapolis 13-3, Jacksopnville 11-5 and Tennessee 10-6, with all but Houston making the Playoffs). This has become a Recommendation after the line was dropped from 8 Wins (where the vig was - 140) to the current number of 7 1/2 Wins (at the -105 vig). Even though we lose the possibility of a PUSH a 8, the prospects appear bleak for the Bears to have a .500 season and a drop off from last season's 7 wins is more likely. Recommendation Date -- August 21, 2008.


New York Jets -- UNDER 8 (Priced at + 115) -- The Jets made the Playoffs two seasons ago with a record of 10-6. But surrounding that season are a pair of 4-12 seasons in 2005 and 2007. Their 18 wins over the past 3 seasons are more than just 6 other teams. The Jets upgraded their offensive line during the offseason and then added QB Brett Favre in the midst of training camp to be the team's starter this season. Yes, Favre is an upgrade from Chad Pennington but Favre has little time to get comfortable with the Jets' offense -- most teams put in the bulk of their offense during mini-camps and other OTA's during the offseason. Favre has a very short time to learn the Jets' offense and his often reckless play could prove costly, especially in the early part of the season. The Favre trade prompted the linesmakers to up the Jets' win total from 7 to 8. At 7 wins the Jets would need to double their 4 wins of 2 of the past 3 seasons to cash the OVER. Now they must more than double that total and win 9 games to pay off OVER backers. The Jets face 5 teams that made the Playoffs last season with 4 of the games on the road -- the one home game is against New England. The Jets will be underdogs in all 5 of those games. Against Division rival Buffalo -- a team expected to be improved this season -- the Jets have not swept the season series since 2002, going 4-6 in the 10 games since, including having lost the last 3 to the Bills. The Jets face a real challenge to approach a .500 record with 6-10 being the most likely result. As such, there is value in going UNDER the 8 wins as it now takes 9-7 to beat us and we will be getting a plus price to boot. Recommendation Date -- August 21, 2008.


Atlanta Falcons -- UNDER 4 1/2 (Priced at + 110) -- This is yet another season of transition for the Falcons who will rely on a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) and a new featured RB (Michael Turner) and it will take time for the offense to develop timing and consistency. The already weak receiving corps was made even weaker when one of the most reliable tight ends in the NFL, Alge Crumpler, was released in the offseason. The Falcons also have their third coach in 3 seasons (and that even ignores interim coach Emmitt Thomas who took over for the final month of last season when Bobby Petrino quit on his team). The defense is also in transition and will face even greater pressure with their weak offense. As mentioned above, we can expect between 4 and 6 teams, on average, to win fewer than 5 games in a season historically. Since 1991, an average of 4.3 teams per season have won 4 or fewer games. Atlanta, playing in the NFC South where Carolina, New Orleans and Tampa Bay all have legitimate expectations of making the Playoffs, is one of the most likely teams to fall in the group winning fewer than 5 games. Recommendation Date -- August 31, 2008.


San Francisco 49ers -- UNDER 6 (Priced at + 130) -- It's hard to be optimistic about the prospects of a franchise that has fallen as hard as the 49ers have since ownership was transferred from Ed DeBartolo to less astute and savvy members of the family. After being the dominant team and model franchise of the decade of the 1980's and well into the mid 90's. San Francisco has had 5 straight losing seasons, going 25-55 between 2003 and 2007. Now they start the season with a journeyman QB (J T O'Sullivan) supplanting former top draft pick Alex Smith and a new offensive coordinator, Mike Martz, who was unable to transform the Detroit Lions in the same capacity a season ago because he lacked the talent to run his complicated schemes. Much of the same situation exists here and this figures to be yet another one of growing pains as the talent on hand struggles to master the Martz offense. The defense also has many holes and has allowed over 340 yards per game in each of the last 4 seasons while the offense has averaged gaining under 300 yards per game in 3 of the last 4 seasons (averaging just 304 ypg in the fourth). Of their 11 losses in 2007, 8 were by double digits (5 by 20 points or more). That's just too much ground to make up, especially with all the changes taking place. Look for the Niners to bottom out again this season with at most 5 wins and 3 or 4 the more likely scenarios. Recommendation Date -- August 31, 2008.

Often, Strong Opinions differ from both Recommendations and Weak Opinions in the following way. In making a Recommendation both the Total Number of Wins and the +/- Price must be favorable, especially since there is a several month wait before the results are known. As such it may be impractical or uncomfortable in making a Recommendation on a team to go Over or Under a specified number -- even though the assigned probabilities may be great -- if to do so means laying a price say, in excess of minus 130. Thus a Strong Opinion may often be looked at a play that would have been looked at as a Recommended Play but for the 'vig' attached whereas a Weak Opinion is one that is classified as such more likely because the probabilites assigned to the Over/Under are such that the likelihood of a winning result is considerably less than that of a Recommendation.

New Orleans Saints -- OVER 8 1/2 (Priced at - 165) -- The high vig keeps this as a Strong Opinion rather than a Full Recommendation and at a Total of 9 the OVER would be a play at a vig of minus 125 or less. The Saints are in excellent position to rebound from last season's 7-9 mark in which their offense was plagued by injuries to RBs Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister. QB Drew Brees is an underrated QB and the Saints made significant upgrades to both their offense and their defense in the offseason. The Saints have been basically an average team for most of this decade but this is their most talented team overall in this time frame. Throw out their 3-13 season in 2005 which was doomed from the start by the aftereffects of Hurricane Katrina and the Saints have won between 7 and 10 games in every season since 2000 (other than that 2005 season). The Saints should contend with Carolina and Tampa Bay in the NFC South for both the Division Title and a Wild Card. The Saints will be one of the more potent teams on offense this season and their improvements on defense suggest at least a 9-7 finish with 10 or 11 wins quite possible. Opinion Date -- August 19, 2008.


Cincinnati Bengals -- UNDER 7 (Priced at + 110) -- The Bengals have not enjoyed the kind of success expected of them when Marvin Lewis was hired following the 2002 season. After breaking a long string of losing seasons by going 8-8 in both 2004 and 2005, Lewis guided the Bengals to the Playoffs in 2005 with an 11-5 record and this talented team appeared on verge of breaking through into the class of an elite team for seasons to come. But off the field issues and other distraction caused that 2005 season to be more of a fluke than a "buy sign" as Cincy dropped to 8-8 in 2006 and 7-9 last season. Off the field problems continue to plague the team and have deprived them in recent seasons of some outstanding talent. The schedule gets tougher this season with 8 games against the NFC West and AFC East in 2007 (in which Cincy went 3-5) being replaced by games against the AFC South and NFC East. 6 of those 8 teams made the Playoffs last season and the other 2 teams (Houston and Philadelphia) went 8-8. The Bengals still have talent but their character, heart and coaching are all questionable and a further decline to 6-10 or worse seems to be the most likely scenario for the 2008 season. Opinion Date -- August 25, 2008.


Minnesota Vikings -- OVER 8 1/2 (Priced at -165) -- The Vikes appear to be the class of the NFC North now that Brett Favre is no longer with Green Bay. The defense was improved during the offseason and the offense features RB Adrian Peterson. The QB position is questionable although Tarvaris Jackson does have potential, especially with his potent running game and defense to lessen the pressure on him to put up big numbers. What keeps this from being a Full Recommendation is the -165 vig. At a Win Total of 9 and a vig of minus 125 or less the OVER 9 would be a Full Recommendation although it is unlikely we will see an upward movement of a half game prior to the start of the season. Opinion Date -- August 31, 2008.


Denver Broncos -- OVER 7 1/2 (Priced at - 170) -- Denver had a losing record (7-9) in 2007 and under coach Mike Shanahan the Broncos follow up rare losing seasons with winning ones. QB Jay Cutler is in his third season and is held in very high regard both within and outside of the Denver organization. The Broncos are the second best team in the AFC West and although a large gap exists between them and San Diego, a similarly large gap exists between the Broncos and the third and fourth teams in the AFC West (Oakland and Kansas City). The comments on making Minnesota a Strong Opinion rather than a Full Recommendation apply here as well. What keeps this from being a Full Recommendation is the -165 vig. At a Win Total of 9 and a vig of minus 125 or less the OVER 9 would be a Full Recommendation although it is unlikely we will see an upward movement of a half game prior to the start of the season. Opinion Date -- August 31, 2008.


Washington Redskins -- UNDER 7 1/2 (Priced at - 110) -- A new era begins in the Nation's Capital as Joe Gibbs finished his second term as Redskins coach by leading his team to the Playoffs for a second time in 3 seasons in 2007. New coach Jim Zorn takes over and is anything but the consevative coach that was his predecessor. Zorn is instituting more of a wide open offense that relies more on finesse, timing and execution rather than the brute force of a punishing running game. Washington will still run the ball with RB Clinton Portis but it will take time for new passing game to take wings as QB Jason Campbell has to learn yet another offensive system. The defense is also a concern and was hit hard by injuries over the summer. Washington will be a team that likely starts slowly out of the gate but shows improvement over the second half of the season. Their three NFC East foes all appear at least as strong as last season, if not stronger and it may be hard to duplicate their 3-3 Division record of last season. The early season schedule is tough with 3 Divisional road games in their first 5 games so a 2-3 start is very realistic. The most realistic scenario is for a strong second half of the season that results in a 7-9 record, with 6-10 also a strong probability. Opinion Date -- August 31, 2008.


Buffalo Bills -- OVER 7 1/2 (Priced at - 145) -- The Bills are a team on the rise after a pair of 7-9 seasons. The offense has some stability with a pair of young players in QB Trent Edwards and RB Marshawn Lunch. The defense appears improved and the Bills have long had one of the best -- if not the best -- special teams in the league. Their last winning season was in 2005 when Buffalo went 9-7, their fifth non-losing season in seven seasons, a testament to the overall strength of an organization that in the early 1990's made it to 4 straight Super Bowls (although they lost each one). Coach Dick Jauron is a solid football mind. Their 4 interconference games are against the weak NFC West. In going 7-9 last season the Bills lost two games by a single point, including that memorable Monday nighter against Dallas. A season earlier, 2006, 4 of their 9 losses were by 2, 3, 1, 3 and 1 points. There were more one sided losses last season as the team, especially on offense, was in transition but still this is a team that could easily be coming off of 12-4 and 9-7 seasons. The minus 145 vig keeps this from being a Full Recommendation as their schedule features just 5 games aginst Playoff teams from last season (including 2 against Division rival New England). Two of those games start the season as the Bills host Seattle and then travel to Jacksonville. The Bills can easily finish 9-7 or possibly even 10-6 and challenge for a Wild Card. Opinion Date -- August 31, 2008.


Dallas Cowboys -- OVER 10 1/2 (Priced at - 140) -- Dallas is the most talented team in the NFC when considering balance on both sides of the ball. There is a fine mixture of experience and youth and Dallas is poised to have another strong regular season. After a pair of 9-7 seasons in 2005 and 2006, the Cowboys continued their ascencion up the NFC ladder by going 13-3 in 2007 and earning the top NFC seed in the Playoffs. They lost their only Playoff game 21-17 to the surging (and eventual Super Bowl Champion) New York Giants to extend their failure to win a Playoff game to more than a decade, a major criticism of head coach Wade Phillips. The 'Boys face the AFC North in 2008 after going 3-1 against the AFC East, a mark they should repeat this season. Dallas was 4-0 against the NFC North last season and they may repeat that mark in their 4 games against the NFC West this season, getting to face the best team, Seattle, of that arguably weakest NFL Division, at home. 9 of their 13 wins were by double digits last season and the offense should be just as strong -- if not stronger -- this season. At a mimimum, Dallas should win at least 11 games with a 12-4 or a repeat of 13-3 even more likely. Opinion Date -- August 31, 2008.


Carolina Panthers -- OVER 7 1/2 (Priced at -175) -- Few teams were hit as hard by injuries -- especially at key skill positions -- as were the 2007 Panthers. Despite using 4 quarterbacks during the season (each of whom had at least 86 pass attempts) the Panthers still managed a 7-9 season following an 8-8 mark in 2006. The Panthers won 11 regular season games in both 2003 and 2005 when they were not as hard hit by injuries, showing what coach John Fox can do with a healthy roster. The high vig keeps this as an Opinion rather than a Full Recommendation. The players are there for the Panthers to make a run at both the NFC South Title or a Wild Card and they have only 5 games against last season's Playoff teams (including 2 against Division rival Tampa Bay). It's difficult to envision a repeat of last season's musical quarterbacks -- largely due to injury -- and the fact that Carolina still managed to go 7-9 is a positive. Any improvement -- including staying healthy -- suggests at least an 8-8 record -- enough to go OVER the 7 1/2 -- with 9-7 or 10-6 very much realistic as the Panthers have a Playoff caliber roster. Opinion Date -- August 31, 2008.


New England Patriots -- OVER 12 (Priced at - 130) -- After going 16-0 last season there's nowhere to go but down for the Super Bowl Runner Ups who try to buck the failure of Super Bowl losers to make the Playoffs the following season. In this decade only Seattle, losers to Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XL following the 2005 season, made it back to the Playoffs the following season. But Seattle plays in the weak NFC West so their path to the Playoffs was fairly easy although they did drop from 13-3 to 9-7. A four game drop for the Patriots still puts them at 12-4 but this remains perhaps the most talented team in the NFL, especially with the Brady to Moss combination clicking so well for the offense. Pre season injury issues with QB Brady may have been blown a bit out of proportion as it is not unusual for teams to keep key starters out of the pre season by using injuries as the reason. The Pats are likely not to repeat their perfect season of a year ago, but they still have the talent to go at least 12-4 with 13-3 the most likely scenario. Opinion Date -- September 5, 2008.


Seattle Seahawks -- OVER 8 1/2 (Priced at - 170) -- Seattle seeks a fifth straight NFC West title and they are still, by far, the most talented and experienced team in the Division. Arizona has yet to prove they can play to their talent potential while the 49ers are Rams are pretty much in rebuilding mode. This will be coach Mike Holmgren's final season as coach as he hads already announced his retirement following this season. The nucleus of Seattle has been together for several years. There is little to suggest that this team will show mich of a decline, if any, this season, barring being hurt abnormally by injuries (an unknown factor for ALL teams) and the 'Hawks have won at least 9 regular season games in each of the past 5 seasons. 10-6 is the most likely result for 2008 but at such a high vig the OVER can be no stronger than an Opinion. Opinion Date -- September 5, 2008.


San Diego Chargers -- OVER 10 1/2 (Priced at - - 175) -- San Diego is still one of the most talented teams in the league, even with TE Antonio Gates and LB Shane Merriman nursing injuries to start the season. Merriman's injury is much more of a concern and he may not be able to play the full season. The offense should continue to improve in coach Norv Turner's second season as head coach and the offense is still led by LaDanian Tomlinson, considered currently the best RB in the game. The gap between the Chargers and the rest of the AFC West is large with perhaps only Denver having a shot at a winning record. The defense, even without Merriman, is outstanding and has depth. Their stats are just ordinary but they make the big plays. The Chargers have won at least 11 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons and an analysis of how their schedule lays out suggests that San Diego, with even an average number of injuries, is a 12-4 team this season. Again, the high vig attached to the OVER prevents this from being a Full Recommendation. Opinion Date -- September 5, 2008.

Baltimore Ravens -- UNDER 6 (Priced at - 120) -- The Ravens went 13-3 in 2006 and then fell to 5-11 in 2007 as they endured all sorts of injuries and poor QB play. Longitme coach Brian Billick -- who led the Ravens to a Super Bowl win in Super Bowl XXXV following the 2000 season -- was fired despite a career record of 85-67. Despite his solid winning record Billick was never able to upgrade the Ravens' offense -- a reason he was made head coach after a successful career as an offensive coordinator. John Harbaugh inherits a team that is aging on defense and still unsettled on offense with questions at QB once again. Although the talent is there to suggest the Ravens of 2008 are closer to the 13-3 team of 2006 than to the 5-11 team of last season, a relatively difficult schedule suggests an improvement to even 7-9 (which would cash an OVER ticket) will be tough. As has been part of our reasoning in preferring 3 of the 4 AFC North teams to finish UNDER their Totals, the Ravens substitue the NFC East for the NFC West in interconference play. The Ravens went 3-1 agains the NFC West last season, accounting for 3 of their 5 wins. They are not likely to repeat those results against one of the two best Divisions in all of football. The other "best" Division is the AFC South. Yep, the Ravens must play all 4 of those teams too after having faced just one of those teams (Colts) in 2007. Opinion Date -- August 25, 2008.


Pittsburgh Steelers -- OVER 9 (Priced at Even Money) -- This is perhaps the weakest of all of our opinions as a 9-7 record seems to be right on target for the Steelers but we go with the OVER because the Steelers have a better chance than the other 3 teams in the AFC North to handle a very difficult schedule. After facing the 4 teams each from the weak NFL West and the almost as weak AFC East (all but New England were weak last season) the Steelers get to face the 8 teams from the NFC East and the AFC South. Pittsburgh won half of their 10 games (5-3) against those 8 teams and if they are able to repeat that mark this year against the NFC East & AFC South they should be able to repeat their 10-6 season of a year ago. The Steelers are the best team in the AFC North by a fairly comfortable margin and could easily go 5-1 or 6-0 within the Division (4-2 at a minimum). But the Steelers did suffer some off season losses that temper the enthusiasm for Pittsburgh exceeding their projected total of 9 wins by more than at best one game. Opinion Date -- August 25, 2008.


N Y Giants -- OVER 8 1/2 (Priced at - 130) -- The defending Super Bowl Champions will have the proverbial bullseye on their backs all season and their defense will be challenged by the retirement of Michael Strahan and the season ending injury to Osi Umenyiora, two of the best pass rushers/sackers in the league the past few seasons. The pass rush was critical to the Giants' late season success last season as was their uncanny ability to win on the road. Entering last season the Giants were a team in transition, needing to replace retired RB Tiki Barber. The team started slowly but came on strong down the stretch to finish 10-6 and make the Playoffs for a third straight season. (although they earned a Wild Card in 2006 with just an 8-8 record). Still, coach Tom Coughlin has earned the respect of his players and QB Eli Manning has blossomed into a quality leader. This team has many intangibles in its favor that suggest it will not suffer the fate of so many Super Bowl winners the following season. Still, concerns about the defense and the minus 130 vig keep this as a Weak Opinion at best as the Giants fit the profile of a team that is capable of repeating their 10-6 season but is more likely to finish at 9-7, providing too thin a margin to display more than limited enthusiasm for the OVER. Opinion Date -- August 31, 2008.


Kansas City Chiefs -- UNDER 5 1/2 (Priced at + 120) -- The Chiefs are a team in steady decline and last season's 4-12 record was their worst since going 4-11-1 in 1988. They are coached by Herman Edwards who -- contrary to his famous sound bite to the contrary -- generally plays to not lose games. There are question marks all over this team on both sides of the ball. Injuries were a factor in last seasons decline from their 9-7 Wild Card season of 2006. The offensive line is weaker which suggests their normally strong running game will suffer. The roster is filled with youth which is a sign of good things for the future but that promising future is 2 or 3 seasons away. Historically, 6 or 7 teams will win 5 or fewer games. Given the youthful composition of the roster the Chiefs should struggle again this season. What keeps this from being a stronger Opinion or a Full Recommendation is a schedule that features only 5 games against teams that made the Playoffs last season, though it is noted that Kansas City does play the NFC South in interconference play after playing the NFC North in 2007. Opinion Date -- August 31, 2008.


Green Bay Packers -- UNDER 8 1/2 (Priced at - 135) -- The Brett Favre era is over and no player in the NFL has more pressure on him to produce than new Packer QB Aaron Rodgers. The Packers' management obviously thinks he is up to the task or they would not have created and extended the fiasco which made headlines much of the summer. Rodgers is talented but he is not anywhere close to being Brett Favre and is unlikely to come close to matching his exploits this season. He will have good games and bad games but with every poor decision, poor pass or interception he will hear the wrath of the loyal Packer following. There is talent on this team but Favre was so responsible for Green Bay's success that his departure has to mean a significant drop off in performance. Last season's 13 wins followed 8-8 and 4-12 seasons -- and those were also with Favre at the controls. A dropoff from 13-3 is expected and is reflected in the line of 8 1/2 -- which was the number even when Favre's return to Green Bay was a viable possibility. In addition to facing the other 3 NFC Division winners (the Giants, Seattle and Tampa Bay) the Packers must also face the 4 teams from the strong AFC South -- 3 of which made the Playoffs last season and the fourth, Houston, finished 8-8. Speaking of which, 8-8 should be considered a successful season for Green Bay in 2008 as a repeat of last season's sweep of improved Minnesota is unlikely (of course, Green Bay also lost twice to Chicago, a repeat of which is also unlikely). What is likely is a significant drop off to a 7-9 record with 6-10 not at all surprising either. Opinion Date -- September 1, 2008.


Philadelphia Eagles -- OVER 8 1/2 (Priced at - 185) -- It's pretty simple to guage the Eagles. When QB Donovan McNabb can stay healthy for most, if not all, of the season, Philly contends for the Playoffs and has a winning record. When McNabb misses significant playing time, the Eagles suffer perhaps more than most other teams. Andy Reid is an outstanding hed coach. He enters his tenth season as Philly's head honcho and the Eagles have made the Playoffs in 6 of his 9 seasons, winning at least 10 games each time. Aside from his first season (1999's 5-11) his other two seasons were 6-10 (2005) and last season's 8-8. The guy can coach. No wonder the high vig for the Eagles to win at least 9 games. Especially with RB Brian Westbrook continuing to lead be one of the most unheralded elite players in the league. The receiving corps is not strong but the defense puts up average stats. But it's that high minus 185 vig and McNabb's increased injury factor as he ages (31) that makes this a Weak Opinion. A record of at least 9-7 and even 10-6 in the fairly strong NFC East is likely. But the OVER cannot be backed at such a high vig. Opinion Date -- September 1, 2008.


Arizona Cardinals -- UNDER 8 (Priced at - 120) -- Few teams receive the consistent annual hype as does Arizona as "THIS" being the season this very talented team will have a winning record and make the Playoffs. But that's how it's been for most of this decade. There is talent on this team but the culture of management has been such that the organization does not like to spend to acquire talent and that lack of commitment seems to filter down to the players, coaches and fans. The Cardinals' talent and potential is what makes this just a Weak Opinion as this team has a roster clearly capable of winning 10 games. But the Cards have not had a winning record since 1998 (9-7) and that has been their only winning record 1984 -- nearly a quarter of a century! The Cards were 8-8 last season (just their second .500 season since that 9-7 season in 1984). So to expect back to back non-losing seasons is asking a lot. And now that the season Win Total has been bumped up from 7 1/2 to 8 it would take 9 wins to beat the UNDER players. But, as stated at the outset, the talent is there. The Cards have to play to their talent level at some point, don't they? The most realistic scenario for Arizona is to finish 7-9. Opinion Date -- September 3, 2008.


Detroit Lions -- OVER 6 1/2 (Priced at - 125) -- Much like the Arizona Cardinals, the Detroit Lions are a talented team that most observers annual predict will finish better than they actually do. In 2007 the Lions actaully started off 6-2 but faded to 1-7 in the season's second half to finish 7-9, their best record since going 9-7 in 2000.. Coach Rod Marinelli has done a decent job in changing the attitude of the players and there is a fair amount of talent on the team. But there is a lack of depth and the lack of a true running game on offense that makes it easier for opponents to defend such a one dimensional team lacking depth and also lacking an above average defense. GM Matt Millen has been oft criticized for poorly managing the payroll and making poor personnel decisions. As with the success or failure of most entities, it always stems from the top and Lions have been a poorly run organization for many years. Still, the team showed enough signs of progress last season to suggest the foundation has been laid for the Lions to at least equal and probably exceed -- though not by much -- last season's 7 wins. Look for the Lions to finish at least 7-9 and probably 8-8 this season. Opinion Date -- September 3, 2008.


Houston Texans -- UNDER 7 1/2 (Priced at + 130) -- There is much to like about the Texans' roster and their prospects for 2008 after a solid 2007 season that saw them go 8-8, their best record in their 6 season franchise history. They play in the very tough AFC South and went 1-5 against their 3 Divisional foes last season, with the win coming in the final week of the season in a game that had little meaning for Jacksonville. Still, this is a young team and some regression can be expected this season. The QB and RB positions are barely average while the defense remains a work in progress. There is upside for the Texans and that's why the UNDER is a weak opinion. They could repeat their 8-8 season of a year ago. But expecting a drop off to 7-9 or 6-10 is a more realistic scenario. Opinion Date -- September 5, 2008.


Jacksonville Jaguars -- UNDER 10 (Priced at + 110) -- Jacksonville enjoyed a solid season in 2007, going 11-5 and upsetting Pittsburgh in the Playoffs. There is solid quarterbacking and a strong running game to lead the offense. The defense is nothing special but did show a decline last season from the season before. The Jags are capable of making another run at the Playoffs but have not made the Playoffs in back to back seasons since 1998/1999. There is still a gap between the Jaguars and Indianapolis and the other two teams in the Division -- Houston and Tennessee -- seem to have narrowed the gap. The Jags split the series with the Titans and Texans while losing twice to the Colts. 10 seems to be a solid number for Jacksonville which is why this is a weak opinion. Injuries are always a negative factor and without reasons to suggest a significant improvement this season the slight preference is to the UNDER with 9-7 a bit more likely than 11-5. Opinion Date -- September 5, 2008.


Miami Dolphins -- OVER 5 1/2 (Priced at - 110) -- Miami was better than their 1-15 record of 2007 as 6 losses were by exactly a FG. That suggests Miami is not that far from being a competitive football team and they have upgraded at QB with the signing of ex-Jet Chad Pennington. Miami is just 5 seasons removed from their 10-6 season of 2003 (in which they missed the Playoffs) and then won 4, 9 and 6 games prior to last season. In comes Bill Parcells to run football operations and he knows a thing or four about building winning organizations. The defense should be improved over last season in which they dropped from 289 ypg allowed in 2006 to 342 ypg in 2007. The linesmaker has recognized how 1-15 was a bit of a fluke by setting the total at 5 1/2. New England is still the class of the AFC East and both Buffalo and the Jets appear improved. Asking the Dolphins to approach .500 may be a stretch, especially with their third head coach in 3 seasons. 6-10 is quite achievable but an increase of 5 wins from one season to the next -- even when the increase is from a single win -- keeps this as a weak opinion. Opinion Date -- September 5, 2008.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- OVER 8 (Priced at -140) -- The Bucs have made the Playoffs in 2 of the past 3 seasons. They still rely mostly on their defense but the offense is not as weak as has generally been perceived over the past few seasons. They are well coached and QB Jeff Garcia has been a winner for much of his career. Non Division games against the 4 teams from the NFC North and 4 games against the AFC West present several winnable games (5-3 quite likely) and the Bucs should do no worse than break even (3-3) in their Division although a sweep over rebuilding Atlanta makes 4-2 the most likely result. The Bucs also host Seattle and play at Dallas. The most likely scenario for Tampa Bay is 9-7 and contention for the Wild Card. Opinion Date -- September 5, 2008.


Tennessee Titans -- UNDER 8 (Priced at - 125) -- Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher does not get enough acclaim for being such a solid coach but his longevity is testament to the fine job he's done both when the franchise was located in Houston (remember the Oilers?) and throught the move first to Memphis and then to Nashville. QB Vince Young did not show the kind of progress expected of him last season and the defense has some holes to suggest a repeat of their 10-6 season of 2007 will be tough. The Titans are a reasonable selection to be one of the half dozen teams that made the Playoffs in 2007 to not make them in 2008. Our schedule analysis suggests 7-9 as the most likely record for the Titans as QB Young is not supported by a strong running game nor a great set of receivers. Opinion Date -- September 5, 2008.