HOW GOOD IS THE LINESMAKER?

WARNING -- THIS MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT PIECE OF INFORMATION YOU SHALL READ ABOUT NFL POINTSPREADS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. PROCEED SLOWLY AND BE SURE TO RE-READ THIS MATERIAL UNTIL THE CONCEPTS ARE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR IN YOUR MIND.

How good is the linesmaker? Although this is not the question that has baffled man throughout the ages as the question 'What is the meaning of Life?', this question probably is a close second. Just how good a job does the linesmaker do? It is often thought that he does a pretty good job since Sports Books continue to grow and thrive and more are opening up all the time. Thus you could conclude that the linesmaker does do a good job in terms of making money for his establishment. But the question raised, and hopefully answered, here is how good a job does he do in setting the line when compared to the actual results of the games? Most people would think that he probably comes very close most of the time. But what is meant by 'most of the time?. 60%? 70%? 90%? Well the charts that follow give you a very clear indication of both how good he is and, as importantly, how consistent he is. Perhaps we should rephrase that. The following chart shows how poor the linesmaker is at setting the line but also how consistent he is in being poor.

Surprised? We thought so. But let's explain. Look at the chart. It shows the number of times since 1980 that the difference between the line and the actual result of the game has fallen on a certain number. As an example you can see that there have been 90 times when that difference was 0.0 points - in other words, a push. There have been 145 instances of the pointspread result being decided by half a point, 158 instances of a one point decision, etc. The right hand column shows the cumulative results in terms of percentage of games where the difference between the line and the actual result was that number or less. For instance, the linesmaker is within a field goal or less of the actual result in 21.3% of all games, just over one game in five. He's within a touchdown of the actual spread 44.4% of the time (a bit more than two games in five). He's within 10 points of the actual spread just under 59% of the time. Looked at another way the linesmaker misses the mark by more than a field goal almost 80% of the time (4 games in 5). He misses by more than a touchdown 56% of the time (almost 3 games in 5). And he really misses the mark, by more than 10 points, 41% of the time (2 games in 5). What does this tell you about the linesmaker and how to play the NFL? Just pick the winner of the game and you have an excellent chance of being a pointspread winner!

In Volume 1 of the Pointspread Encyclopedia series, "Teams & Situations," we've charted the NFL as a whole in a variety of situations, including situations in which a team has won a game outright but failed to cover, or has lost or tied a game outright but did cover the pointspread. This is the only situation in which the pointspread matters since in all other cases a team will win and cover or will lose and not cover. This situation, where a team wins and fails to cover or loses or ties but does cover occurs, on average, 15 - 18% of the time! In over 80% of all games the team that wins also covers and the team that loses does not cover! Why spend your time trying to pick the winner versus the line when that result matters 15 - 18% of the time? If you concentrate instead on picking the outright winner of the game you'll be a pointspread winner 5 times out of 6! Think about that.

Much of Volume 1 is geared to fundamental handicapping. That is, trying to pick winners based on how the teams do on the field. The main body of that book, the charts that show how a team does based on the points scored or allowed, is geared solely to that concept. Determine how a team will play and you'll have a good chance at being on the correct side of the pointspread. What about all the pointspread data in the remainder of our Pointspread Encyclopedia, you ask? Is all that information superfluous in light of what has just been written? Not at all. The pointspread data is a reinforcement of the characteristics that make up winners. The results in our books chart not only the 82-85% of the teams which win and cover but also the 15-18% that lose or tie and cover, and vice versa. The books really go hand in hand and supplement each other. It all depends on where you start your handicapping -- fundamental or technical. By using all of this information you will leave no stone unturned.

Back to the point we mentioned about the consistency of the linesmaker and how good, or bad, a job he does. The accompanying charts reveal that the median difference between the line and the actual result of a game is 8.2 points. What this means is that 50% of the time the linesmaker is within 8.2 points of the actual result and 50% of the time he misses by more than that number. And you'll note that he has been consistent in that median in that his best years were 1989 and 1991 when he was off by 7.3 points or less 50% of the time. His worst years were 1982 and 1990 when he missed the mark by 9.5 points or more 50% of the time.

The second series of charts summarize the first chart by breaking down the differences into various ranges. You can see that the linesmaker is off by 14 points or more 28.5% of the time (over one game in four). There are plenty of opportunities for you to beat the linesmaker by looking to the winner of the game outright, and confirming that by looking at how a team performs versus the line.

Keep this chart handy. But more important than the chart is the concept that underlies it. Pick the winner of the game on the field and you'll collect your wager 82-85% of the time. Most of the time the linesmaker is not even close to the actual result. However, the public at large does follow the linesmaker. Oh yes, the linesmaker knows this fact. But he could care less. His job is to set a number where the public will have to think twice before deciding which side to play. The public at large does not know these facts. The public at large thinks the line makes a huge difference in which way to play. But now you know better. Use this information to your advantage. Don't be afraid of 'the number'! Don't second guess your handicapping!

One final thought to keep in mind as you handicap the NFL and fret over the value of a half point or a point. Unlike other sports, scores in football occur in bunches -- generally three or seven at a time. Does a spread of minus two mean the difference of a safety between the teams? Obviously not. If you feel a team has the potential to score one or two times more often than its opponent, you're looking at a 6 to 14 point edge in real terms. Remember that concept as well when you study numbers.

Earlier reference was made to the charting of pointspread results by team and how that might appear to conflict with this notion of just picking the winner of the game and being right 82-85% of the time. Let's take a moment to explain the value of using pointspread results, especially on a team by team basis.

Pointspread results are a strong indicator of whether a team is overrated or underrated in the minds of the betting public. That is, a team with a winning pointspread record, overall or in a specific situation (such as when they are a home underdog) is a team that has been underrated by the public. They have exceeded expectations by performing better than anticipated by the linesmaker. Conversely, a team with a losing pointspread record is a team that has been overrated and has underachieved relative to the linesmaker's (and in turn the public's) expectations. In fact, a team that performs exactly as expected would have their games result in pushes.

Thus pointspread records are a valuable tool in evaluating whether or not a team is exceeding or falling short of expectations. This is especially true when looking at various categories. In particular, pay attention to situations in which teams that generally overachieve (i.e. have a winning overall pointspread mark) fall short (i.e. have a losing pointspread record) and teams that have underachieved overall (i.e. have a losing overall pointspread record) perform their best (i.e. have a winning pointspread record). That is merely another way of suggesting that you look for situations in which good teams are at their worst or where bad teams are at their best.

NFL Regular Season Pointspread Differentials 1980 - 1998

Difference Between Pointspread and Game Result

Number of Games in Each Differential Category

NFL Regular Season Pointspread Differentials 1980 - 1998

Summary and Analysis of Results by Narrow Ranges of Differentials

Number of Games in Each Differential Range

NFL Regular Season Pointspread Differentials 1980 - 1998

Summary and Analysis of Results by Broad Ranges of Differentials

Number of Games in Each Differential Range

The above Tables summarize the number of times that the difference between the Las Vegas Closing Line and the final score fell on a specific differential or within the various ranges as well as the percentage of games that fell on that differential or within each range. Example: Buffalo is favored by 4 and wins by 12. That result is charted in the 7.5-10.0 range since the difference between the line and final score is 8 points. If Buffalo had lost by 17 the difference would have been 21 and the result charted in the 17.5-21.0 range.