The following Opinons/Recommendations
are ranked from 1 through 30 in order of Strongest Opinion to Weakest Opinion
for each of Baseball's 30 teams to exceed or fall short of their expected Wins total
as offered at the Las Vegas Hilton Race
& Sports Book. Win Totals are as
of April 1, 2010, with each priced at minus 110 to play either the OVER or the UNDER
and carry the provision that the team wagered upon must play at least 160 total games
for there to be "action" on the wager.
This is an aging ballclub with many questions, especially in the starting rotation.
Aside from ace C C Sabathia, the Yankees will rely on Philip Hughes, still unproven
but with solid upside, and the enigmatic A J Burnett for the # 2 and # 3 slots. The
bottom of the rotation is weak and with the "Core" now closer to 40 than
to 30 there are concerns about the durability and effectiveness of Derek Jeter, Jorge
Posada and Mariano Rivera. Too much can go wrong and after a couple of solid seasons
the past two years, we could see the Yanks slide well below their recent low water
mark of 89 wins in 2008.
From 2006 through 2010 the Nationals won 71, 73, 59, 59 and 69 games and nothing
suggests that the 2011 team can even match the 73 games they won in 2007. There is
nobody resemling an 'ace' to anchor the rotation and the Nats will rely on an unproven
closer. The offense should be weaker than last season with Jayson Werth expected
to replace the power lost with the departure of Adam Dunn. And as spring training
draws to a close the Nats traded one of their few sources of speed -- Nyger Morgan
-- in exchange for a prospect and cash. It certainly appears the Nationals are biding
their time until the phenom duo of Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper are both playing
in the bigs, meaning 2011 should be just as dismal as the past 3 seasons with 100
losses more likely than even 72 wins.
Since taking over as skipper of the Halos in 2000 Mike Scioscia has proven to
be one of baseball's best managers with 6 Playoff appearances and the 2002 World
Series Championship in 11 seasons. Last season's 80-82 mark was the Angel's first
losing season since going 77-85 in 2003, the year after their World Series win. Between
2004 and 2009 the Angels won between 89 and 100 games, suggestive of a well run franchise
that can explain away last season's disappointment as a result of injuries and off
season departures from the prior season that could not be overcome. The Angels should
be stronger on offense this season with the impending return of Kendry Morales and
the acquisition of Vernon Wells. The pitching will also benefit from having Dan Haren
on board for a full season to team with potential Cy Young Award candidate Jered
Weaver and the talented Ervin Santana to form a solid 1-2-3 at the top of the rotation.
Scioscia's managerial skills suggest that 2010 will prove to have been a fluke rather
than the start of a downward trend towards mediocrity.
The Rays are in a season of transition after suffering some major key offseason
losses. Gone is one of the game's best all around players, OF Carl Crawford. Gone
is the power of Carlos Pena (his .196 BA of 2010 won't be missed however). Gone are
the 45 saves of Rafael Soriano. Gone are the 15 wins, sub 4.00 ERA and 200+ innings
of SP Matt Garza. Additional depth from the bullpen is also gone and the Rays will
be relying on much of their young and upcoming talent, including SP Jeremy Hellickson.
3B Evan Longoria and SP David Price form the nucleus of team that should again contend
2 or 3 years down the road but manager Joe Maddon will have a challenging season.
And after 96, 84 and 97 wins the past 3 seasons a .500 record in this rebuilding
season is a very realistic goal.
After making the Playoffs in 3 of 4 seasons, including back to back Division Titles
in 2008 and 2009 the Dodgers fell below .500 in 2010, finising 80-82. Manager Joe
Torre retired after 3 seasons and his long time coach Don Mattingly takes over despite
no prior major or minor managerial experience. But he takes over a club that is pitching
rich, led by one of the game's emerging stars, LHP Clayton Kershaw. Solid experience
is behind him in the rotation and the bullpen is anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton.
The offense suffered in 2010 with injuries to Rafael Furcal and Andrew Ethier and
will be bolstered by the offseason acquisition of 2B Juan Uribe. But pitching has
always been the Dodgers' strength and with 4 veteran starters behind Kershaw -- each
of whom had an ERA below 3.70 in 2010 -- the bullpen should be fresher late in the
season and the Dodgers should contend for the Division rival and are projected to
win between 88 and 91 games.
Baseball's losingest franchise for nearly the past two decades has bleak prospects
for ending the record streak of 18 straight losing seasons. And the last few years
have seen things take a nosedive as the Pirates declined from 68 wins in 2007 to
67, 62 and 57 in 2010. Whether last season was the bottom remains to be seen but
there is little to suggest the Pirates will be able to show enough of an improvement
to exceed the total of 67 wins which would represent a 10 games improvement. How
weak are the Pirates? Considered the number 1 starter, LHP Paul Maholm had a 5.10
ERA in 2010, allowing 228 hits and 62 walks in 185 1/3 innings (WHIP of 1.56) while
striking out just 102 batters! There really is no featured player on offense although
both Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker show signs of being solid major leaguers. Yet
Pittsburgh management has shown a strong tendency in recent seasons of trading up
and coming players to avoid doling out hefty contracts. The losing culture has become
the accepted norm for this once proud franchise and barring a complete 180 turnaround
in ownership/management philosophy the Bucs have a greater chance of losing 100 games
than they do in winn more than 67.
This is another once proud franchise that has suffered from a lack of strong ownership that seems more concerned with the purse strings than the product on the field. The Royals have long had an ability to draft and develop young talent but often has traded that talent away before allowing that talent to blossom in a Royals uniform. Or they trade away a star player before having to dole out huge bucks for a long term contract. KC may have one of the weakest pitching staffs in baseball after trading ace Zack Greinke to Milwaukee during the offseason, leaving a very weak starting rotation that may have trouble turning over leads to a bullpen anchored by an outstanding closer, Joakim Soria. The offense is also a concern with nobody on their 40 man roster having hit more than 15 home runs in 2010, making their .274 team batting average (#2 in MLB) somewhat of a wasted accomplishment. KC may be hard pressed to even reach 65 wins this season without Greinke and considering their win totals from 2006 through 2010 were 62, 69, 75, 65 and 67 -- compiled with both better pitching AND better hitting.
This Recommendation is based partly on potential and partly on team history. Seattle has been on a roller coaster the past half decade, showing significant improvement following losing seasons. In 2006 the Mariners finished 78-84 but improved to 88-74 in 2007. The following season the M's fell to an ugly 61-101 before rebounding nicely in 2009 to finish 85-77. Last season they again dropped by more than 20 games to again finish 61-101, largely due to an offense that ranked last in all of MLB in more than a half dozen key categories. The pitching was relatively decent, anchored by Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez, who at age 25 still has solid upside potential. There are capable hurlers behind him in the rotation with lefty Jason Vargas poised for a breakout season. There are a coupld of options to close (Aardsma and League) and the offense HAS to be more productive in 2011, especially with Ichiro still putting up solid stats, including stolen bases. While Seattle is not ready to contend, an assault on .500 is a realistic and attainable goal.
Ron Gardenhire is one of baseball's most underrated managers even though he does a solid job each season keeping the Twins in contention and he's led the Twins to 6 Playoff appearances in his 9 seasons on the bench. They won 94 games and the AL Central title last season despite playing the entire season without closer Joe Nathan and with All Star first baseman Justin Morneau missing the final 81 games due to a concussion. Both are back this season and Nathan is capably backed up by Matt Capps, acquired last summer. The Twins have won fewer than 87 games just once in the last 5 seasons (79 in 2007) winning 96 in 2006, 88 in 2008 and 87 in 2009 prior to last season's 94 wins. The rotation is anchored by a fully healthy Francisco Liriano, who is backed up by some solid young arms including another up and coming lefty, Brian Duensing. Look for the Twins to again conend for the Division title and flirt with, if not exceed, 90 wins.
Baltimore should be an improved team with a full season of Buck Showalter as manager. The O's did go 37-34 when Showalter took over in late July 2010. But there are serious questions about the quality of the rotation and the ability of the offense to string together multiple running innings relying on other than the home run. While there is some nice young talent upon which to build, tangible results might still be a season or two away. After all, from 2006 through 2010 Baltimore won just 70, 69, 68. 64 and 66 games. That suggests an increase of 11 wins (to 76) is asking a bit too much, especially in the very tough and well balanced AL East in which the other 4 teams won at least 85 games apiece in 2010.
Cincinnati capped off 3 seasons of increasing wins with a Central Division title and a 91-71 mark in 2010. The Reds won just 72 games in 2007, gradually increasing to 74 in 2008 and 78 in 2009 before taking a huge leap of 13 additional wins in 2009. It's not unusual to see a drop back following a season of a double digit increase and the linesmaker has taken that into consideration by lower the Reds by 4 1/2 games from their 2010 record. Manager Dusty Baker has been known to overwork pitchers in past managerial stops and that could be the case with a Cincy staff that is a mixture of veterans and youth. The offense should be solid with reigning MVP Joey Votto primed for another strong season. But the NL Central is expected by many to be a 4 team race. There truly is no "ace' in the starting rotation and the Reds are likely to bring along heralded Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman slowly. It's hard to see the Reds enjoying as much success as a season ago, especially with closer Francisco Cordero coming off of a 40 save season but one in which he posted an unsettling 3.84 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, an indication that the soon to be 36 year old's most effective days are behind him
This is the weakest of all Leans as the Cubs handicap as being very close to a .500 teams based on their roster entering the season. But with two very poor teams in their Division (Houston and Pittsburgh) there will be opportunities to pick up cheap wins. The makings of a decent rotation are in place with Dempster, Zambrano and Randy Wells but there are questions about the offense.