Baseball has historically been our favorite sport. The daily action. The two, three and four game series with the same opponent. The relatively stable starting lineups. The huge difference in starting pitching. The value of the bullpen. The biases of the Umpires. The uniqueness of the ballparks - and the teams taylor-made to play in them. All of these factors, plus others, combine to make baseball a very beatable betting proposition. And unlike basketball and football, all you do is pick the winner of the game on the field!

Sure. There are vagaries and nuances that must be considered. Picking winners is one thing. Making a profit from picking winners is another. That's where our years of experience and expertise come in.

At Logical Approach we have been handicapping major league baseball for over 25 years with a solid record of success. As with all sports, baseball is very streaky. But it is also perhaps the most formful of all sports, largely due to the long season that makes certain the best teams play the best baseball. Statistics are most meaningful in baseball, be they player, team or generic. Our years of experience have shown us how to identify and profit from form cycles, rookie pitchers, biased umpires and the like. Most importantly of all, we know how to profit from betting on baseball.

Baseball uses the Money Line, which differs significantly from the pointspread that is used in basketball and football. In baseball you wager according to set odds, based upon the likelihood one teams has in defeating another. For example, the Yankees may be the best team in baseball. Kansas City might be amongst the worst. To back the Yankees to beat the Royals you have to lay odds to a dollar, for example 3-1. This means that in order for you to win a bet on the Yankees to beat the Royals, by any score, you would risk $300 to win $100. If you thought the Royals would pull the upset you would risk $100 to win $240. That difference of $60, between what the Favorite player lays and the Underdog bettor takes, is the linesmaker's edge.

Most baseball games are more competitive than our example. Thus if the Astros were hosting the Cardinals the Astros might be favored by about -140, meaning you'd bet $140 to win $100 if you wanted to back the Astros. Since baseball uses a ten cents line in many places (which is very advantageous to the bettor) you would risk $100 on the Cardinals to win $130 if they were to win the game.

The major variables that determine the price on a game are the relative differences between the two teams, the differences in the quality of the opposing starting pitchers, and the home field advantage (which is even more significant in Run Line wagering which we shall discuss shortly).

Showing a profit is not as easy it you might think. Winning percentage is not the key to profits. Keep in mind the critical concept that it's the prices of your winners and losers. You can hit 60% winners and show a loss (by playing mostly favorites) or you can hit 40% winners and show a profit (by playing on underdogs).

There will be well over 2,000 major league baseball games played this season. In addition to wagering on which team you think will win the game, you can also wager on whether the total runs scored in the game will be less than or greater than a specified number. Generally the total runs number is 8 to 8 ½ in the National League and 9 to 9 ½ in the American League, although there are significant variations due most often to the specifics of certain ballparks (i.e. Fenway Park, Wrigley Field and Coors Field in Colorado usually have totals posted that are significantly above the norm. Generally a 20 cents line is used in Totals, or Over/Under. Wagers so that a game might be listed as Over 8 ½ runs and -130 with the corresponding Under 8 ½ runs being +110. Here again there will be more than 2,000 wagering opportunities this season.

There is also Run Line wagering which is similar in concept to a pointspread and, in effect, combines the concepts of a Pointspread and a Money Line. Generally, a Run Line of plus or minus 1 ½ runs is used. In this type of wager the favorite lays 1 ½ runs while the underdog takes 1 ½ runs and the Money Line price on the game is adjusted from the straight 'winner of the game' line. For example, in our earlier illustration the Astros were -140 to defeat the Cardinals. Using the Run line concept, the Astros might be +155 to win the game by at least 2 runs (i.e. - 1 ½) and the Cardinals might be -175 to either win the game or lose by exactly 1 run (i.e. + 1 ½). Usually a 20 cents line, or 20 cents spread, is used in Run Lines.

Run lines can be used effectively to lower the price you must lay on a favorite to win a game by giving up that 1 run win and can also be used to change a favorite into an underdog (as in our Astros example) by merely requiring the favorite to win by 2 or more runs. We have the math and the historical data to show how Run Line wagering can be extremely profitable.

Although Parlay wagers are often considered taboo when it comes to football and basketball, they can be utilized extremely effectively in baseball, especially when playing favorites. Consider two favorites each of whom is -150. A line of -150 equate to the mathematical fraction of 3/2 which translates into a chance of success of 60%. That is, a team that is -150 is given a 60% chance of winning by the linesmaker. In baseball Parlays pay off at true odds. That is, if you Parlay to even money teams together (+ 100) a $100 wager would return $400, for a profit of $300. Those are true odds for two even money bets. If you were to parlay two teams each of whom is -150, the return on a $100 wager would be $277, for a profit of $177.

Do you see what is happening here? We are taking two 60% favorites, tying them together, and when they win we are getting paid as if we had bet a single +177 underdog.

More dramatic yet is the case of a pair of 2 to 1 favorites, teams on which you would have to bet $200 individually to win $100 individually. A 2-1 favorite (i.e. -200) has a 67% chance of winning (they should win two of three games). Put those two -200 favorites together in a Parlay and your $100 wager returns $225 for a profit of $125! Two substantial favorites combine into a +125 Underdog! Yes, Parlays can very powerful tools!

We've done a tremendous amount of work this past off-season getting ready for 2009. The dynamics of modern day baseball combined with current pricemaking and wagering practices afford us a great opportunity for profit in baseball investments.

APRIL -- This month offers perhaps the best time of the season to cash in on Underdogs. Teams that will often be favored by -140 in July are often priced as +140 Underdogs in April. Here's where our offseason work and Spring Training analysis of how each team has changed and whether or not the players who remain are on the decline or ready to improve really pays off. Early season lines are generally based on perceptions from the prior season. Yet each season there are a handful of teams that will be dramatically different from the season before -- both winning teams and losing teams. The public will be slow to catch on to these changes so in April we can find many bargains by playing on undervalued Underdogs and by playing against overrated Favorites.

MAY -- As the season enters its second month the linesmaker has started to catch up with the teams that are extremely hot or cold out of the gate. But not all of those teams will continue in what seems to be a dramatic direction. Here, once again, our work during the off-season and Spring Training pays huge dividends by enabling us to determine which teams are truly vastly improved or worsented versus which teams are just off to hot or cold starts and are likely to reverse direction and perform more according to expectations. This 'lag time' between the start of the season and the time when many teams truly establish their identity for the current season allows us to take advantage of streaks and often finds us backing certain small favorites and certain small underdogs.

JUNE through AUGUST -- This is the most formful part of the season. All teams are still contending for the Playoffs or, if they have struggled in the first two months, still have plenty of time to go on a run and get back into the race. It is during this part of the season that the Parlay technique discussed above is most effective. By June we have pretty much been able to determine which of the early surprise teams are 'for real' and which have started to fade. Injuries have also begun to take a toll and a team's depth or lack thereof comes strongly into play. The nature of the injuries, be they to everyday players, starting pitchers or members of the bullpen, dictate the effect on Over/Under plays as well.

SEPTEMBER -- This is the time to exercise great caution, especially since many teams are out of contention and are just playing out the string, bringing up untested minor leaguers when the roster expands from 25 to 40 on September 1. The contending teams are usually priced as prohibitive favorites, making them difficult to back even in Parlays. Many of the best plays in September are found in games between non-contenders which tend to be more competitively priced. There are also situations involving up and coming starting pitchers, even against the contenders, that often provide nice payouts on huge underdogs that while out of contention will play hard for their young 'phenom' who takes the hill and requires confidence from a team supporting him with their best efforts despite not heading for post-season play. Of course, competitively priced games between contending teams also gives us opportunities to pick out solid situations for both Side and Total plays.

PLAYOFFS and WORLD SERIES -- The best part of the baseball season is when everything is on the line. There are few bargains in the Playoffs and World Series since the entire world knows almost everything about the competing teams. But there are tried and true patterns and situations that develop which, combined with current form and quality of the pitching matchup, can lead to profitable post-season play on both a game to game basis and in making futures plays using the revised odds that are posted before each round of post-season play begins.

We'd like to invite you to join us for the 2009 season. Each day throughout the season we shall release what we consider the best plays of the day. Sometimes they will be sides, with underdogs or small favorites (-125 or less) predominant. We will recommend Over/Unders. And we'll even recommend Parlays as the matchups and prices dictate. During the course of a weekly period we expect to have about 12-15 releases, or between 1 and 3 per day. We look to average a profit of between 1 and 2 units per week. This is both a reasonable and very attainable goal.

Historically we get out of the gate fast so consider signing up NOW. Our prices are amongst the most affordable in the industry and you get personal consultation on an as-needed basis as well. For details and prices, see the enclosed Order Form. Any questions? Please call us at the above telephone number.